11月13日，央行公布2025年10月金融统计数据报告。数据显示，截至10月末，社会融资规模存量为 437.72万亿元，同比增长8.5%，增速连续三个月回落。 对投资者而言，被视为经济预测或股市行情先行指标的"M1-M2"增速差连续多月回升后再回落，总量流 动性指标可能短期见顶。但因季初月份理财等资管产品规模扩容、股市维持较高交易热度吸引存款入市 等，10月居民存款当月减少1.34万亿元，非银金融机构存款增加1.85万亿元。 | 中国人民纪行 | | THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 人民币 | 新闻发布 金融科技 | 法律法报 | 货币政策 经理国际 | 宏观审情 国际交往 | 值货政策 人员招录 | 全融市场 学术交流 | 全融稳定 征信管理 | 调查续计 反洗钱 | 银行会计 党建工作 | 变付体系 | | 政策解读 服务互动 网送文告 办事大厅 网上调查 | 政务公开 | | 公昌信息 在线申报 | ...

Historical Review of Size and Style Rotation - From 2008 to 2010, small-cap stocks outperformed due to significant economic stimulus and abundant liquidity, with small-cap stocks being more sensitive to funding[6] - Between 2011 and 2013, large-cap stocks gained favor as economic growth pressures increased, highlighting their defensive attributes[8] - The period from 2013 to 2015 saw a resurgence of small-cap stocks driven by the rise of new industries and increased M&A activity, with leverage funds entering the market[9] - From 2016 to 2021, large-cap stocks dominated as supply-side reforms improved profitability for leading companies, while M&A activity cooled[10] - In the 2021 to 2023 period, small-cap stocks regained strength due to changes in funding structure and the rise of new industries like AI[12] Growth vs. Value Style Rotation - From 2011 to 2014, value stocks outperformed as the economy shifted from stimulus-driven growth to self-sustained growth, with GDP growth declining[15] - In 2015, growth stocks saw a rebound due to the rise of the internet and new industries, despite ongoing economic pressures[19] - The period from July 2016 to October 2018 favored value stocks as traditional industries improved amid tightening liquidity[21] - From November 2018 to July 2021, growth stocks outperformed due to the rise of new industries and favorable liquidity conditions[23] - From August 2021 to August 2024, value stocks are expected to dominate due to tightening global liquidity and geopolitical uncertainties[25] Key Indicators and Future Outlook - The historical analysis indicates that size and style rotations are influenced by fundamental factors, liquidity, valuation, and policy[27] - The correct prediction rate for small-cap outperformance since 2005 is 69%, while for growth vs. value since 2011 is 77%[2] - In the first half of 2025, small-cap stocks outperformed with a 7.54% increase in the CSI 1000 index compared to a 1.37% increase in the CSI 300 index[2] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potential shift towards large-cap stocks due to institutional investor preferences and external uncertainties[2]