V i e w p o i n t | 22 Sep 2025 06:17:00 ET │ 10 pages Global Semiconductors Memory Pricing Update: Raising 4Q25E & 2026E ASP Growth Estimates on Multiple Tailwinds from Commodity Memory CITI'S TAKE Digitimes reported (17-Sep) that 4Q25E memory contract price increased +15~20% QoQ due to supply shortages and aggressive memory procurement by CSPs. However, while we see negotiations for 4Q contract pricing likely settling in late-Sep, we project 4Q25E DRAM/NAND ASP growth to register +12%/+6% QoQ (vs. +5%/3% ...

Summary of SK Hynix Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS) - **Industry**: Semiconductor, specifically memory products Key Developments - **HBM4 Development**: SK Hynix has completed the world's first HBM4 development and established a mass production system for it, with key specifications showing significant improvements over HBM3E. The bandwidth has more than doubled, with data transfer speeds exceeding 10Gb/s, and power efficiency has improved by over 40% [1][2] Core Insights - **Customer Requirements**: A major HBM customer has increased the speed requirement for HBM4 from 8Gb/s to 10Gb/s, and SK Hynix is on track to meet this requirement. Korean suppliers, including SK Hynix and Samsung, are positioned favorably due to their adoption of logic processes for the base die [2] - **Power Efficiency Comparison**: Hynix's HBM4 power efficiency improvement of over 40% is notable compared to Micron's improvement of over 20%. However, the testing conditions may differ, so this does not guarantee superior progress for Hynix [2] - **Market Readiness**: Samsung is also preparing to provide HBM4 samples with the higher speed requirement, indicating that both companies will likely see results from the current sampling stage by mid-to-end 4Q25, with mass production expected to start around late 2025 to early 2026 [2] Memory Pricing Outlook - **HBM Pricing**: The pricing and volume details for HBM with the largest customer remain unclear, but an agreement is anticipated soon. There is potential for upside in pricing assumptions due to the challenges in meeting HBM4 requirements, although a decline of close to double-digit percentage year-over-year in blended HBM ASP is expected, particularly as HBM3E pricing is projected to decline significantly [3] - **Conventional Memory Pricing**: Demand for memory in servers, especially enterprise SSDs, is increasing, particularly from U.S. cloud service providers (CSPs). Conventional DRAM and NAND pricing is expected to rise until the end of the year, followed by a correction in 1H26. Sustained server-related demand could extend the pricing upcycle into 1H26 [3] Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: W216.7 trillion / $155.7 billion - **Revenue Forecasts**: Expected revenue growth from W66.19 trillion in 2024 to W107.51 trillion by 2027 [9] - **Price Target**: The 12-month target price is set at W300,000, with a current price of W307,000, indicating a downside potential of 2.3% [9] Risks - **Demand Fluctuations**: Risks include stronger or weaker demand for smartphones, PCs, and servers, which could impact overall memory demand [8] - **Competitive Landscape**: Progress in HBM business by Samsung could affect Hynix's revenue and profit [8] - **AI-Related Capital Expenditure**: Variations in AI-related capital expenditures could influence overall HBM demand and profitability for SK Hynix [8] Conclusion SK Hynix is making significant strides in the development of HBM4 technology, positioning itself favorably in the competitive landscape. However, the company faces challenges related to pricing and demand fluctuations in the broader memory market. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential for growth if market conditions align favorably.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Memory Semiconductor Industry, specifically focusing on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), DRAM, and NAND sectors [1][3][30] Core Insights and Arguments - **HBM Pricing Trends**: - HBM pricing power is expected to decline in 2026 due to increased competition and supply, with HBM3e 12-hi price negotiations likely to be lower [2][17] - Current pricing for HBM3 has decreased by approximately 15%, with expectations for HBM3E pricing to range between $1.56 and $1.74 per Gb in 2026, down from $1.88 per Gb in 2025 [17] - Samsung is anticipated to rejoin the Nvidia supply chain, which could lead to further pricing pressures [15][19] - **DRAM Market Dynamics**: - A "double dip" cycle is confirmed, driven by demand rather than supply, with expectations of a downturn continuing into the first half of 2026 [3][21] - Customers are resisting price hikes for 3Q contracts, indicating a cautious demand outlook [25] - The overall DRAM market is projected to experience slight oversupply into 1H26, with a potential downturn in pricing [26][27] - **NAND Market Conditions**: - NAND margins were negative in 2Q, with expectations for a mixed pricing outlook in 3Q and 4Q [4][31] - Demand for NAND is expected to remain muted, particularly in the smartphone segment, while server demand remains strong [31] - YMTC is expanding capacity, which may influence market dynamics in 2026 [31] Additional Important Insights - **Stock Performance**: - The market is currently favoring Samsung Electronics despite a preliminary earnings miss, contrasting with the negative reactions to strong guidance from competitors like Hynix and Micron [10][13] - The relationship between valuation and fundamentals is highlighted, suggesting that lower valuations may not require strong fundamentals for stock performance [5] - **Future Outlook**: - The memory market is expected to face significant oversupply in 2026, which could lead to further pricing declines [19][21] - The anticipated growth in HBM demand is projected at 67% YoY from 2025 to 2026, but supply is expected to outpace this demand, leading to a sufficiency ratio of only 29% [20][21] - **Strategic Recommendations**: - Preference for Samsung Electronics is noted due to its potential to capitalize on the evolving HBM landscape and its competitive positioning [5][15] - Analysts recommend focusing on value tech stocks rather than the most expensive memory stocks, as earnings growth is expected to shift [13] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the memory semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on HBM, DRAM, and NAND markets, along with strategic stock recommendations.