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2025年中期策略会速递:半导体:需求分化,关注AI、先进制造演进
HTSC· 2025-06-09 01:35
Group 1: Semiconductor Manufacturing Trends - Manufacturing utilization rates continue to improve year-on-year, with downstream manufacturers focusing on Chiplet and advanced packaging technologies[1] - The storage market is showing signs of a price turning point, with an upward trend expected to continue until Q3 2025, driven by AI-related demand[1] - Design companies are experiencing differentiated downstream demand, with power and analog companies reporting a recovery in industrial and automotive sectors[1] Group 2: Equipment and Domestic Production - Global WFE is projected to reach $100 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4%-5%[3] - Domestic equipment manufacturers are seeing significant growth in new orders, benefiting from downstream expansion and increased localization rates[3] - The verification speed of core new equipment by domestic companies is accelerating, indicating a positive trend for advanced node domestic equipment breakthroughs[3] Group 3: Storage Market Dynamics - The storage market is expected to see price increases, with predictions of 18-23% and 13-18% growth for Server and PC DDR4 modules respectively in Q2 2025[4] - The enterprise storage market is projected to grow from $23.4 billion in 2024 to $49 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16%[25] - Domestic manufacturers are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for enterprise-level storage driven by AI infrastructure investments[25] Group 4: Design Sector Insights - The power semiconductor sector in China is entering a mild upward cycle, with a 14.5% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger car production from January to April 2025[38] - The demand for SoC and MCU products is significantly driven by national subsidies and export opportunities, with performance expected to vary across companies in Q2 2025[26] - The analog chip sector is recovering, with industrial and communication sectors seeing a return to inventory restocking[29]