策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量专题 2026 年 1 月 14 日 2026 年度策略报告 趋势延续 多周期共振上行，指数空间或能被盈利修复进一步打开。 相关研究报告 《宏观和大类资产配置周报》20260112 《2025 年前三季度对外经济部门体检报告》 20260112 《策略点评》20260112 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 周期定位：经济、金融周期共振上行。基于我们对库存周期的跟踪与定 位，当前 ...

值得一提的是，化工ETF天弘(159133)盘中净申购份额已达3600万份。 | | 化工ETF天弘 159133 | ਐ | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 土◎ > 龍 | | 实时申购赎回信息 | 申购 | 赎回 | | 笔数 | 5 | O | | 金额 | 0 | 0 | | 份额 | 3600万 | 0 | 拉长时间看，截至1月9日，化工ETF天弘(159133)最新规模达7.76亿元，最新份额达6.78亿份，均创成立以来新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，化工ETF天弘(159133)近8天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"1.68亿元。近20日净流入近2亿元。 【产品亮点】 截至2026年1月12日 14:11，化工ETF天弘(159133)盘中换手3.04%，成交2346.34万元。跟踪的中证细分化工产业主题指数 (000813)下跌0.77%。成分股方面涨跌互现，光威复材领涨7.46%，蓝晓科技上涨6.55%，中简科技上涨5.06%；和邦生物领跌 4.72%，三美股份下跌3.53%，华鲁恒升下跌3.25%。 上海市印发《上海市支持先进制造业转型升级三年行动方案（2026—202 ...

1月12日消息，据深交所数据显示，截至10:37，深证成指上涨0.11%，创业板指下跌0.91%，高装细分50 指数上涨4.79%，个股方面，国博电子涨16.46%，铂力特涨15.63%，中科星图涨14.98%，中国卫星、天 奥电子10%涨停，中国长城、航天电子涨超9%，中国卫通、富士达、海格通信涨超8%。 热门ETF方面，高端装备ETF（159638）涨4.49%，盘中成交额达1.55亿元，换手率达5.85%。天天基金 网数据显示，该基金近6个月涨45.30%，近1年涨67.00%。 消息面上，开年以来多地密集出台政策支持先进制造业发展，1月9日上海市发布《上海市支持先进制造 业转型升级三年行动方案（2026—2028年）》，明确引导企业布局商业航天等新兴领域，加速商业火箭 等创新产品规模化突破；1月8日广州市发布相关规划，将低空经济与航空航天列为战略先导产业，打 造"南方航天城"聚焦可复用火箭与卫星星座。商业航天领域近期动作频频，蓝箭航天科创板IPO过审拟 募资75亿元冲击"商业火箭第一股"，箭元科技国内首个海上回收复用火箭基地开工，2026年1月还将迎 来长征八号甲、长征十二号甲等多场商业发射任务。 高 ...

富阳将如何激发撤市建区十年转型积蓄的巨大动能，奋力实现从"地理相邻"向"功能融合"到"战略 协同"的跨越转型，肩负起承接主城资源、辐射西部县域的双重任务？记者从1月8日召开的富阳区委二 届九次全体（扩大）会议暨区委经济工作会议上获悉，富阳未来五年奋斗目标已锚定：高水平打造富裕 阳光的现代版富春山居图，高质量建设社会主义现代化新型城区。至2030年，地区生产总值力争达到 1500亿元，人均GDP达到中等发达经济体水平，一幅联东带西、联城促乡、融城接廊的壮丽发展画卷正 徐徐展开。 回望过去五年，富阳交出了一份厚重的答卷：发展能级持续提升，综合实力位列全国百强区第48 位，投资潜力位列全国第55位；创新生态加速成型，创新指数首次跻身全省一档，省重点实验室从0到4 家；产业转型换道提升，制造业投资突破500亿元，国家专精特新"小巨人"企业从0到46家；城市品质提 档升级，银湖科技城朝气蓬勃，富春湾新城加快重构，大城北规划建设全面启动…… 审视富阳在杭州发展版图中的位置，一个形象而精准的定位跃然而出——做强"腰部"功能。富阳之 于杭州，正如坚实的"腰部"，既要承接主城的辐射赋能，又要支撑对西部地区的带动引领。为此，富阳 ...

A股市场在近期走出了一轮连续的上涨行情，呈现出相对罕见的"十五连阳"走势。本文旨在通过回溯历史数据，客观分析在类似市场形态下，中证A500指数 的相对表现、后续胜率，并结合近期的资金流向与政策背景，探讨其当前所展现的配置价值。 一、"八连阳"历史期间复盘：A500展现出收益竞争力 回顾A股历史，上证指数出现连续八个交易日上涨（即"八连阳"）的情形并不常见。根据对自2005年以来共24次有效"八连阳"区间的统计，在指数点位持续 拉升期间，各主要宽基指数均能获得显著的正收益。 表：历史上证指数"八连阳"区间主要宽基指数表现对比 | | 历史上八连阳区间 | | 区间涨跌幅(单位:%) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 区间算日 | 区间尾日 | 上证指数 | 中证 A500 | 沪深 300 | 中证 800 | | 2006/11/14 | 2006/11/23 | 10.66 | 9.93 | 10.78 | 9.15 | | 2006/12/11 | 2006/12/20 | 13.35 | 13.10 | 13.14 | 12.81 | | 200 ...

中国正成为全球新一轮科技革命和产业变革的重要策源地。无论是人工智能、先进制造、新能源， 还是数字经济、生物技术，中国都拥有庞大的应用场景、完善的产业配套和快速迭代的创新生态。越来 越多跨国公司将中国视为全球研发体系中的关键一环，在中国布局研发中心、创新平台，与中国企业和 科研机构开展深度合作。对许多跨国公司而言，中国不仅是规模巨大的消费市场，更是孕育新技术、新 模式、新业态的重要创新源头。 当前，国际局势依然错综复杂，外部环境变化带来的挑战不容低估。中国坚持稳步扩大制度型开 放，以自身的确定性应对外部环境的不确定性，坚持用更高水平的开放链接世界、融通全球，围绕外资 企业普遍关心的公平竞争、要素获取、知识产权保护等问题，推出一系列政策举措，让稳定透明、可预 期的开放政策，转化为跨国公司"敢投、愿投、长期投"的信心来源。 刚刚过去的2025年，世界经济在复杂多变的环境中艰难前行。地缘政治冲突延宕，全球贸易复苏乏 力，不确定性成为国际经贸领域的重要特征。在多重风险交织叠加的背景下，国际市场信心波动明显， 跨国投资趋于谨慎。但中国经济展现出难能可贵的稳定性和韧性，持续释放超大规模市场、完整产业体 系和不断优化营商环境 ...

公司表示，此举是充分借助专业投资机构的专业资源及其投资管理优势，顺利实现对具有一定实力的国 家新兴战略项目公司的间接投资，促进公司长远发展，进一步提升公司的综合竞争力和盈利能力。同 时，随着相关合作的深入推进，公司希望进一步强化与基金其他合伙人、项目相关方、潜在客户等市场 主体的业务联系，进一步增强公司的业务拓展能力和核心竞争力。 中证报中证网讯（王珞）常青股份2026年1月7日晚间公告称，公司作为有限合伙人，拟以自有资金2000 万元参与嘉兴中平皖珑股权投资合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称"基金"）。该投资基金规模4001万 元，公司出资额占基金认缴出资总额的49.9875%。该私募基金投资范围包括新材料、可控核聚变、半 导体、人工智能、新能源、TMT、先进制造、大健康、大消费等行业的实体的股权。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in new A-share accounts in 2025, reaching 27.44 million, a 9.75% year-on-year growth, marking the highest annual figure since 2022 [2][3] - The data indicates a strong correlation between new account openings and market conditions, with a notable increase in new accounts during the second half of the year, particularly in December, which saw a 30.54% year-on-year increase [2][3] - Individual investors remain the primary force in account openings, with 27.33 million new personal accounts, while institutional accounts surged by 35% to 104,500, indicating a structural shift in the market [3][4] Group 2 - The growth in new accounts is attributed to a shift in asset allocation towards equity markets, driven by the adjustment in the real estate market and the performance of sectors like AI and new energy, which resonate with younger investors [3][4] - Policy initiatives aimed at enhancing the capital market environment, including lowering transaction costs and promoting long-term capital inflows, have significantly boosted market attractiveness [4][5] - Analysts express optimism for the A-share market in 2026, anticipating a continued "slow bull" market driven by incremental capital and steady corporate earnings recovery [5][6] Group 3 - The expected drivers for the A-share market in 2026 include a transformation in corporate profit structures, sufficient valuation recovery potential, and increased liquidity from insurance funds and high-net-worth individuals [6][7] - Different institutions predict various investment focuses, including technology innovation, advanced manufacturing, upstream cycles, and domestic consumption, reflecting a consensus on the market's potential [7][8] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a transition from a "hope" phase to a "growth" phase in the Chinese stock market, with a projected 14% profit growth in 2026 and a potential 38% increase by the end of 2027 [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Changqing Co., Ltd. has announced an investment of 20 million yuan as a limited partner in the Jiaxing Zhongping Wanlong Equity Investment Partnership, accounting for 49.9875% of the fund's total committed capital [1] - The total scale of the investment fund is 40.01 million yuan, focusing on sectors such as new materials, controllable nuclear fusion, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, new energy, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), advanced manufacturing, big health, and big consumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the active participation of industrial Limited Partners (LPs) in the investment market, particularly focusing on the establishment of a new mother fund by a major liquor company, which signals a broader trend of revitalization in the investment landscape [2][3][4]. Group 1: Fund Establishment and Investment Strategy - The newly registered mother fund in Suqian City has a total scale of 1.5 billion yuan, with significant contributions from Suqian Industrial Development Group and Yanghe Distillery [5]. - The fund's investment focus includes intelligent manufacturing sectors such as robotics, artificial intelligence, and data industries, with a commitment to early, small, long-term, and hard technology investments [6]. - The fund has a lifespan of 15 years, with an investment period of 8 years and an exit period of 7 years, and it will not hold more than 30% of shares in any single investment [6]. Group 2: Market Trends and LP Activity - Since 2025, the primary market has shown signs of recovery, with institutional LP contributions reaching approximately 1.24 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a 9% year-on-year increase [8]. - The number of newly registered funds has increased by 15.18% year-on-year, indicating a growing interest from LPs, particularly industrial LPs, who are leading in investment frequency [8]. - The investment landscape is characterized by a busy schedule for investors and fundraising teams, reflecting a significant uptick in activity across both investment and fundraising sectors [9][10]. Group 3: National Policy and Market Structure - The entry of "national team" funds into the venture capital market marks a significant shift, with increased government support for industrial investments [14]. - The establishment of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund and regional mother funds aims to inject substantial capital into the market, focusing on future industries like artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing [15]. - The ongoing support from national-level funds is expected to address market funding gaps and foster a more sustainable investment environment, with projections for continued market recovery into 2026 [15][17].