Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices in China have been reduced again, marking the eighth decrease since 2025, with gasoline and diesel prices lowered by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, reflecting a trend of "six increases, eight decreases, and six stabilities" in the year [1][2] Price Adjustments - As of October 13, the average price of 92 gasoline is 8036 yuan per ton, down 75 yuan from the end of September, while 95 gasoline is at 8315 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan, and 0 diesel is at 6943 yuan per ton, down 77 yuan [2][3] - The price reduction translates to approximately 3 yuan savings for a typical car owner filling up a 50-liter tank of 92 gasoline [1] International Oil Market - As of October 13, WTI crude oil futures are priced at $59.88 per barrel, and Brent crude at $63.73 per barrel, showing slight increases [1] - Analysts attribute the recent rise in international oil prices to technical rebounds and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine situation, alongside adjustments in U.S. tariffs [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of gasoline and diesel may decrease slightly due to reduced operating rates at Shandong independent refineries and major refineries [3] - Gasoline demand is expected to weaken due to limited travel, while diesel demand may improve as outdoor work resumes following the end of persistent rainfall in northern provinces [3] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the new pricing cycle may start with a negative trend, indicating a high probability of consecutive price declines for refined oil products [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no specific investment rating for the entire industry provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Oil Market**: OPEC's production increase prospects are unclear, putting pressure on oil prices. The macro - sentiment is stable, and the US non - farm payroll data on Friday will affect market expectations of the economic outlook after the Fed's interest rate cut. Geopolitical situations are uncertain, and there are still supply - side disturbances. Short - term Brent crude oil is expected to trade in the range of $66.2 - 67.2 per barrel [1][2]. - **Asphalt Market**: OPEC's production increase expectation exists, and oil prices are weak. Asphalt's cost support is weak, supply has increased significantly, and spot prices lack upward drivers. The BU2511 contract is expected to trade in the range of 3400 - 3500 [3][4]. - **Fuel Oil Market**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply and inventory remain high in Asia, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is lower than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, and downstream demand has no specific drivers [6][7]. - **PX Market**: OPEC plans to increase production in October, causing oil prices to fall and the cost of PX to decline. Asian PX production capacity is increasing, and downstream PTA production capacity is also changing. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [8][9]. - **PTA Market**: OPEC's planned production increase in October leads to lower oil prices and a downward shift in PTA's cost center. PTA supply and demand are both increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [11][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Market**: Some ethylene glycol plants are under maintenance, and the supply is expected to increase in the second half of September. Import volume is expected to rise in the fourth quarter, and the supply - demand relationship will remain in a tight balance [14][15]. - **Short - fiber Market**: The price of raw material PTA has decreased, and the price of short - fiber has followed suit. Some short - fiber plants plan to reduce production in September, and the price will fluctuate with raw materials [16][17]. - **PET Chip Market**: The price of raw material PTA has declined, and the price of PET chips has weakened. The market supply is relatively abundant, and downstream demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak. Some plants plan to reduce production in September [19]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Market**: Pure benzene supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and port inventory is rising. Styrene supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation [20][22]. - **Propylene Market**: Propylene supply is increasing, and downstream demand is relatively stable but with limited profit margins. The market is expected to be loose in the future [24]. - **Plastic and PP Market**: There is new production capacity expected for the 01 contract, and the supply side still has pressure. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" season is expected to be weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [25][28]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Market**: PVC supply is under pressure from new production capacity, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. Caustic soda's medium - term supply - demand outlook is positive [30][34]. - **Urea Market**: Some urea plants are under maintenance, and production has decreased. India's new tender has a certain impact on market sentiment, but domestic demand is weak [35]. - **Methanol Market**: International methanol production is recovering, and port inventory is increasing. Domestic supply is abundant, and the strategy is to short at high prices [37][38]. - **Offset Printing Paper Market**: The double - offset paper market is stable, with supply pressure and weak demand [39]. - **Log Market**: In the short term, cost support and demand differences form a weak balance. In the long term, it depends on New Zealand's supply and demand improvement [40][41]. - **Pulp Market**: The pulp market is running weakly. Import volume data shows different impacts on prices [41][44]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber Market**: The production line operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires are declining. Some factors have a certain impact on the price of natural rubber [46][48]. - **Butadiene Rubber Market**: The production line operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires are declining. Some factors are favorable for the price of natural rubber [49][51]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 contract closed at $63.48, down $0.49 or - 0.77% compared to the previous day; Brent2511 contract closed at $66.99, down $0.61 or - 0.90%. SC2510 contract fell to 483.6 yuan/barrel during the day and 483.3 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3432 points at night (- 0.29%), BU2512 closed at 3385 points at night (- 0.21%). Shandong asphalt spot price dropped to 3540 yuan/ton on September 4, while prices in East and South China remained stable [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 contract closed at 2757 at night (- 0.68%), LU11 closed at 3394 at night (- 1.39%). Singapore paper - cargo market spreads changed [6]. - **PX**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6680 during the day (- 1.91%), and 6686 at night (+ 0.09%). Spot prices decreased [8]. - **PTA**: TA601 main contract closed at 4656 during the day (- 1.61%), and 4650 at night (- 0.13%). Spot basis weakened [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4357 (+ 0.60%), and 4353 at night (- 0.09%). Spot basis and prices are provided [14]. - **Short - fiber**: PF2510 main contract closed at 6410 during the day (- 0.43%), and 6362 at night (- 0.75%). Spot prices decreased [16]. - **PET Chip**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5892 during the day (- 0.30%), and 5834 at night (- 0.98%). Spot market had low - price transactions [19]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5970 during the day (- 0.58%), and 6022 at night (+ 0.87%); EB2510 main contract closed at 6985 during the day (- 0.78%), and 7043 at night (+ 0.83%). Spot prices changed [20]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6392 during the day (- 0.36%), and 6391 at night (- 0.02%). Spot prices in Shandong decreased, while those in East China remained stable [24]. - **Plastic and PP**: LLDPE market prices in some regions decreased, and PP prices in different regions also declined [25][27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC spot market was weakly volatile, and caustic soda prices in different regions remained stable [30]. - **Urea**: Urea futures closed at 1714 (- 1.47%), and spot prices were stable [35]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures closed at 2408 (+ 1.18%). Spot prices in different regions are provided [37]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Double - offset paper prices in Shandong remained stable [39]. - **Log**: Log spot prices in some ports changed slightly. The 11 - month contract closed at 797 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.69% [39][40]. - **Pulp**: SP main 11 - month contract closed at 5026, down 26 points or - 0.51% [41]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: RU main 01 contract closed at 16055 (+ 0.60%), NR main 11 contract closed at 12880 (+ 0.70%); BR main 11 contract closed at 11855 (+ 0.64%) [46][47][49]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: US initial jobless claims increased, and the trade deficit in July widened by 32.5%. The New York Fed President said the Fed may cut interest rates if the economy meets certain conditions [1]. - **Asphalt**: In different regions, factors such as weather, construction, and inventory affect asphalt prices. Domestic asphalt production and inventory data are provided [3][4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached a high level, and there were supply disruptions in some regions [6][7]. - **PX**: PTA and polyester production capacity utilization rates changed, and downstream product sales were weak [8][9]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, PTA and polyester production capacity utilization rates changed, and downstream product sales were weak [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Downstream product sales were weak, and ethylene glycol production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [14]. - **Short - fiber**: Downstream product sales were weak, and the operating rates of related industries changed [16]. - **PET Chip**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export prices were slightly adjusted [19]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Petrochemical company's pure benzene listing price was adjusted, and the operating rates of related industries changed [20][21]. - **Propylene**: Domestic propylene production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the operating rate of propane dehydrogenation decreased [24]. - **Plastic and PP**: PE and PP maintenance ratios increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [26][27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Some alumina companies increased their caustic soda purchase prices, and PVC and caustic soda production, inventory, and utilization rate data are provided [30][31]. - **Urea**: Urea production and operating rate data are provided, and India's new tender was announced [35]. - **Methanol**: China's methanol port inventory increased [37]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The double - offset paper market supply pressure and demand situation are described [39]. - **Log**: Log arrival volume decreased, and construction project funds improved slightly [40]. - **Pulp**: Paper industry development plans in Shandong are announced, and pulp import volume data are provided [43][44]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: A typhoon affected Hainan Rubber, and tire production line operating rates changed [46][47][51]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: OPEC production, macro - economic data, and geopolitical factors affect oil prices [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Oil price trends, asphalt supply and demand, and inventory affect asphalt prices [3][4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Supply and demand factors of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil affect prices [6][7]. - **PX**: OPEC production, PX production capacity changes, and downstream PTA production capacity changes affect PX prices [8][9]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, OPEC production, PTA supply and demand changes, and downstream demand affect PTA prices [11][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply from maintenance and new production capacity, import volume, and downstream demand affect the supply - demand balance [14][15]. - **Short - fiber**: Raw material prices, short - fiber production, and downstream demand affect short - fiber prices [16][17]. - **PET Chip**: Raw material prices, PET chip production, and downstream demand affect PET chip prices [19]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Supply and demand factors of pure benzene and styrene, including production capacity changes and downstream demand, affect prices [22][23]. - **Propylene**: Propylene supply and demand, downstream demand, and raw material prices affect propylene prices [24]. - **Plastic and PP**: New production capacity, maintenance, import and export, and demand during the peak season affect plastic and PP prices [27][28]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC new production capacity, demand affected by the real - estate market, and caustic soda supply and demand affect prices [33][34]. - **Urea**: Urea production, India's tender, and domestic demand affect urea prices [35]. - **Methanol**: International production, port inventory, and domestic supply and demand affect methanol prices [37][38]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply, demand, and cost factors affect double - offset paper prices [39]. - **Log**: Supply from New Zealand, demand from infrastructure and real - estate, and cost factors affect log prices [40][41]. - **Pulp**: Pulp import volume data and market demand affect pulp prices [41][44]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Tire production line operating rates, vehicle market data, and supply disruptions affect natural rubber prices [46][48][51]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weakly volatile; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracks are stable; options: wait and see [2]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weakly upward; arbitrage: asphalt - oil spread is volatile; options: wait and see [4][5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weakly downward; arbitrage: hold short - term low - sulfur reverse spreads [7][8]. - **PX**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weakly volatile; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [10][11]. - **PTA**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weakly volatile; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [13][14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be volatile; arbitrage: conduct basis positive spreads; options: wait and see [14][15][16]. - **Short - fiber**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be volatile; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [17][18]. - **PET Chip**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be volatile; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [19][20]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weakly volatile; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [22][23][24]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be volatile; no specific arbitrage and option strategies are provided [24][25]. - **Plastic and PP**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weakly volatile; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [27][28]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: For PVC, maintain a short - selling idea; for caustic soda, wait and see in the short - term and consider going long in the medium - term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [33][34]. - **Urea**: Unilateral trading: wait and see; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [35][36][37]. - **Methanol**: Unilateral trading: short at high prices; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [37][38]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: No specific trading strategies are provided [39]. - **Log**: Unilateral trading: conduct range trading; arbitrage: pay attention to 11 - 1 positive spreads; options: wait and see [40][41]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading: wait and see for the SP main 11 - month contract; arbitrage: wait and see [41][45]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Unilateral trading: wait and see for RU and NR main contracts; arbitrage: hold RU2511 - RU2601 spreads; options: wait and see [48][49][52]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Unilateral trading: set the stop - loss for short positions at the high on Thursday; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [51][52].