As China's carmakers ramp up overseas expansions, they mustn't repeat the price wars at home, writes @julianaliu (via @opinion) https://t.co/yP2ElOFF4O ...

Core Viewpoint - Lingbao Gold (3330.HK) experienced a significant intraday increase of over 11%, reaching a new two-month high of HKD 18.32, with a total market capitalization of HKD 23.54 billion [1] Group 1: Acquisition Announcement - Lingbao Gold announced a share placement agreement with St Barbara Limited, under which the buyer conditionally agrees to acquire and the seller conditionally agrees to place 50% + 1 share of the target company, for a total consideration of AUD 370 million, equivalent to approximately RMB 1.735 billion based on an exchange rate of 1 AUD to RMB 4.6880 [1] - The key asset of St Barbara Mining is the Simberi gold mine located in Papua New Guinea, which, according to JORC standards, has gold resources of 153 tons and reserves of 81.2 tons, along with an operating processing plant with an annual capacity of 3.5 million tons [1] - The acquisition is expected to expand Lingbao Gold's resource base, enhance its competitiveness, and strengthen its overseas development [1]

Proya Cosmetics is wildly popular in China. Can its billionaire founder re-create the secret recipe overseas? https://t.co/otffyl0lR0 ...

Core Insights - Nippon Steel Corp. plans to shortlist two or three states for a new steel plant in the US, with a final decision expected by early 2027 [1][2] - The new facility will have an annual capacity of 3 million tons and will be operated by the company's subsidiary, United States Steel Corp. [2] - The investment is part of Nippon Steel's goal to achieve a profit target of 1 trillion yen ($6.4 billion) and to recover some of the $14.1 billion spent on acquiring US Steel [4] Investment and Operational Considerations - The new plant will utilize electric arc furnaces, requiring stable and low-cost electricity due to the power-intensive nature of this steelmaking method [5] - Tax incentives and infrastructure for handling raw materials will also be considered in the site selection process [5] Market Strategy and Challenges - The selection process will align with the expiration of US Steel's collective bargaining agreements in September 2026, with ongoing discussions about potential new deals [6] - Nippon Steel identifies the US and India as key markets in its mid-term strategy, with plans to enhance operations in Thailand as a major overseas business pillar [7] - The company faces challenges in the domestic Japanese market due to declining demand and competition from low-cost Chinese products [8]

Meituan (3690.HK) 3Q25 Review Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Meituan (3690.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$639.4 billion / $82.1 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$464.2 billion / $59.6 billion - **Current Price**: HK$102.50 - **Target Price**: HK$120.00 - **Upside Potential**: 17.1% [7][3] Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Adjusted Operating Loss**: -Rmb17.5 billion (better than expected vs. GSe of -Rmb18.8 billion) [1] - **Food Delivery and Instashopping Losses**: Estimated at -Rmb19 billion [1] - **New Initiatives Loss**: -Rmb1.3 billion (better than GSe/VA of -Rmb2.3 billion) [1] - **Expected 4Q Losses**: Substantial food delivery losses anticipated, but a rebound expected in 1Q26 due to CNY seasonality [1] - **3Q On-Demand Losses**: Peaked, with narrower losses expected for 4Q25E/1Q26E [1] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Market Share**: Meituan maintains leading GTV market share with higher AOV orders [1] - **Comparison with Competitors**: Meituan's losses per order are -Rmb2.6 compared to Alibaba's -Rmb5.2 [1] - **Competition**: Increased competition from Douyin and Amap affecting in-store, hotel, and travel margins [1] Strategic Insights - **Path to Profitability**: Increased visibility for international business, with Keeta turning profitable in Hong Kong [1] - **User Subsidies**: Focus on protecting high-quality users to support higher ROI and lifetime value [19] - **Investment in New Initiatives**: Continued investment in Instashopping and overseas expansion, with expected losses in the short term [30] Future Outlook - **Revenue Growth Forecast**: - **2024**: Rmb337,591.8 million - **2025E**: Rmb366,000.0 million - **2026E**: Rmb408,093.2 million - **2027E**: Rmb451,767.9 million [7] - **EBITDA Forecast**: - **2024**: Rmb49,119.6 million - **2025E**: -Rmb13,207.4 million - **2026E**: Rmb20,824.3 million - **2027E**: Rmb53,882.2 million [7] Risks and Challenges - **Competition Risks**: Potential for prolonged losses from competitors like Alibaba, which could suppress Meituan's margins [21] - **Market Dynamics**: Shift from capital-driven competition to efficiency-driven competition expected [29] - **Regulatory Risks**: Food safety concerns and stricter regulations could impact operations [30] Valuation Scenarios - **Base Case Valuation**: HK$120 per share, reflecting a more fragmented long-term landscape with reduced market share [25] - **Bull Case Valuation**: HK$152 per share, assuming continued leadership and ability to capture high-quality users [20] - **Bear Case Valuation**: HK$77 per share, if competition significantly impacts margins and growth [21] Conclusion - Despite near-term profitability challenges, Meituan's leadership in local services and potential for recovery in food delivery and Instashopping positions it favorably for future growth. The company maintains a Buy rating based on its strategic initiatives and market position [26]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **food delivery industry** in the **EMEA** region, particularly in relation to **Meituan's** Q3 results and its implications for competitors like **Delivery Hero**, **talabat**, **Jahez**, and **Prosus** in **Latin America** and **MENA** regions [1][2]. Company Insights 1. **Meituan's International Expansion** - Meituan is actively expanding its operations in the **GCC** and **Brazil**, competing with local players such as Delivery Hero and Jahez in Saudi Arabia, and talabat in Qatar and Kuwait. The company launched pilot operations in Brazil in October 2025 [2][3]. - The company sees significant growth potential in food delivery penetration in the **GCC** and Brazil, where platforms like WhatsApp are commonly used for food orders [2][3]. 2. **Financial Performance** - Meituan reported an adjusted EBITDA of **$(2.1) billion** in Q3 2025, a significant decline from **+$2.1 billion** in Q3 2024, indicating intensified competition and operational challenges [10][8]. - The New Initiatives segment, which includes grocery retail and overseas expansion, showed a narrowing of operating losses quarter-over-quarter, although the exact financial split remains unclear [3][8]. 3. **Market Position and User Data** - In Saudi Arabia, Meituan has become the second-largest player by user count, with Jahez experiencing a decline in users year-over-year [4][9]. - In the UAE, Meituan is gaining traction, although it is still in the early stages of its launch. In Kuwait, Jahez has been negatively impacted, while talabat's daily active users (DAUs) have increased year-over-year [4][12][19]. 4. **Competitive Landscape** - The competition in the food delivery sector is described as "irrational," with Meituan suggesting that the competition may have peaked in Q3 2025 [10]. - The sentiment in the EMEA food delivery market remains weak, influenced by the competitive dynamics in China and the performance of global food delivery companies [10]. Additional Insights - **Keeta**, a grocery delivery service under Meituan, achieved profitability in Hong Kong after 29 months of operation, following the exit of Deliveroo from that market [3]. - Regulatory challenges in Qatar affected talabat, which faced a temporary ban in September 2025, impacting its user base [4][28]. Conclusion - Meituan's aggressive expansion strategy in the EMEA region presents both opportunities and challenges, with significant competition from established players. The financial performance indicates a need for improved operational efficiency and market positioning to navigate the competitive landscape effectively.

Summary of Damai Entertainment Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Damai Entertainment Holdings - **Industry**: Entertainment and IP Merchandising Key Financial Highlights - **H1 FY26 Revenue**: Rmb4.05 billion, a 33% YoY increase, surpassing UBS-e/Visible Alpha consensus by 7%/6% [2][10] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Decreased by 7.5 percentage points YoY to 35.7% [2][10] - **Adjusted EBITA/Net Profit**: Rmb550 million/Rmb542 million, beating consensus by 6%/11% [2][10] Segment Performance 1. **IP Merchandising** - **Revenue Growth**: Over 100% YoY, with profit doubling in H1 [3] - **Segment Margin**: Fell by 8.6 percentage points YoY to 20.2% due to one-off losses and investment in IP operations [3][10] - **Future Plans**: Management aims to scale the to-C retail business, indicating potential for further growth [3][11] 2. **Live Entertainment** - **Revenue Growth**: Increased by 12.5% YoY to Rmb1.3 billion, exceeding UBS-e/consensus by 9%/10% [3] - **Content Revenue Growth**: Over 50% YoY [3] - **Strategic Focus**: Plans to increase participation in sports event investment and operations, with a medium to long-term focus on overseas expansion [3][12] 3. **Film Segment** - **Revenue Decline**: Decreased by 12.5% YoY, but segment margin improved to 8.9% from 2.7% in FY25 [3][13] - **Investment Strategy**: Focus on medium to low-budget, high-return projects, leveraging AI to reduce production costs [13] Market Outlook and Strategy - **Overseas Expansion**: Management emphasizes a strategic focus on overseas markets, citing opportunities for domestic artists and increasing demand among domestic consumers [12] - **Asset-Light Model**: The company plans to maintain an asset-light retail business model while expanding its physical and online store presence [11] Valuation and Stock Performance - **Price Target**: Lowered from HK$1.29 to HK$1.23, maintaining a Buy rating [4][5] - **Current Trading**: Trading at 20x FY27E PE, below peers despite a projected 28% EPS CAGR from FY26-28E [14] - **Market Capitalization**: HK$27.8 billion (US$3.58 billion) [7] Important Metrics - **Revenue Projections**: Expected to grow to Rmb7.885 billion in FY26E and Rmb9.149 billion in FY27E [6] - **Net Debt**: Projected to increase from Rmb2.701 billion in FY25 to Rmb4.038 billion in FY27E [6] Conclusion - Despite margin contraction in IP merchandising, Damai Entertainment Holdings shows strong underlying business momentum and growth potential in IP commercialization and overseas expansion. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities in the entertainment sector, particularly in IP merchandising and live content.

Core Viewpoint - MINISO Group Holding Limited is expected to report strong third-quarter results, driven by overseas expansion and the success of its TOP TOY brand, with guidance exceeding analyst expectations [2][4]. Financial Performance - Projected earnings per share for the upcoming quarterly earnings report is around $0.33, with anticipated revenue of approximately $794.3 million [1]. - The company maintains a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 18.61, indicating investor expectations of future growth [2][4]. - The price-to-sales ratio is approximately 2.55, while the enterprise value to sales ratio is around 2.69, suggesting investors are willing to pay a premium for sales [2]. - An earnings yield of approximately 5.37% reflects the return on investment for shareholders [2][4]. - The debt-to-equity ratio stands at about 0.87, indicating a moderate level of leverage [2]. - A current ratio of approximately 1.99 shows the company's ability to cover short-term liabilities with its short-term assets [2]. Investor Engagement - The company plans to release its financial results before the U.S. market opens, followed by an earnings conference call at 4:00 A.M. Eastern Time, with simultaneous interpretation in English [3].

Summary of Huaxin Cement Co. 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huaxin Cement Co - **Industry**: Greater China Cement - **Market Cap**: US$5,440 million - **Ticker**: 600801.SS (A-share), 6655.HK (H-share) Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Performance**: - Net profit reached Rmb900 million, representing a **121% YoY** increase and a **3.5% QoQ** increase, exceeding market expectations [2][4] - **9M25 Net Profit**: Grew **76% YoY** to Rmb2 billion [2] - **Revenue Growth**: Driven by increased overseas cement shipment volumes and improved gross profit per ton [2] - **SG&A Expenses**: Controlled with a mild increase of Rmb104 million YoY to approximately Rmb1 billion in 3Q25, resulting in an SG&A ratio of **11.3%**, up **0.6ppt YoY** [3] Strategic Developments - **Acquisition of Lafarge Africa**: - Huaxin acquired an **83.81% stake** in Lafarge Africa for approximately **US$774 million** on August 29, 2025 [4] - The Nigerian business contributed an estimated Rmb100 million to Huaxin's earnings in 3Q25, with full consolidation expected in 4Q25, likely enhancing earnings further [4] Dividend Announcement - **9M Dividend**: First-time announcement of Rmb0.34 per share, implying a **35% payout ratio** of 9M25 earnings, compared to Rmb0.46 per share and **40% payout** for FY24 [5] - **Dividend Yield**: Implies a **1.6% yield** for A-shares and **2.3% yield** for H-shares [5] Analyst Ratings and Price Target - **Rating**: Overweight (OW) on both A and H shares due to high earnings growth visibility from overseas expansion and attractive valuation [5][7] - **Price Target**: Rmb22.90, indicating an **11% upside** from the closing price of Rmb20.66 on October 24, 2025 [7] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: - Better-than-expected demand in Hubei and Yunnan could mitigate supply/demand impacts [10][12] - Stricter production suspension and environmental regulations may enhance pricing power [10][12] - **Downside Risks**: - Weak fundamentals in Guizhou could negatively affect pricing in southwestern and central China [11][13] - Slower-than-expected growth in overseas markets may hinder overall performance [11][13] Conclusion - Huaxin Cement Co's strong financial performance in 3Q25, driven by overseas expansion and strategic acquisitions, positions the company favorably in the cement industry. The positive market reaction to earnings and the initiation of dividends reflect confidence in future growth prospects. However, potential risks related to market conditions and operational challenges should be monitored closely.

Core Insights - China's economy is experiencing a prolonged slump characterized by a property crisis, weak consumer demand, and deflation, yet its major companies are generating significant profits abroad [1][6][7] - Chinese firms are shifting their focus from low-cost manufacturing to exporting services, technology, intellectual property, and cultural products, marking a departure from the traditional "Made in China" model [4][7] Overseas Investment Strategy - Chinese companies have strategically increased their overseas direct investment, particularly in emerging markets and Belt and Road Initiative countries, to diversify supply chains and enhance business resilience [2] - This strategy allows firms to build production capacity closer to end markets, which is crucial for adapting to global market demands [2] Revenue Generation - Chinese listed companies now derive approximately 16% of their total revenue from overseas markets, an increase from 14% in 2018, with expectations for this share to rise by about 0.6 percentage points annually [3] - Although this figure is still below the 50% average for developed-market firms, the growth rate indicates a significant shift in revenue sources [3] Value Chain Shift - The transition from low-cost goods to higher-value exports includes a diverse range of products such as electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar panels, reflecting an upward movement in the value chain [4] - Chinese products remain competitively priced, with discounts ranging from 15% to 60% compared to global competitors, enhancing their attractiveness in international markets [4] Market Adaptation - Chinese companies are increasingly recognized in the US market, with brands like Pop Mart, Luckin Coffee, and Temu gaining traction by exporting not only products but also digital business models [5] - The impact of tariffs on corporate earnings is mitigated by diversified supply chains, with estimates suggesting that a 100% tariff would only reduce earnings by about 10% in the short term [5]