The interim results of Pop Mart were in line with its earlier profit alert, with revenue and NP surging by 204% and 396% YoY to RMB13.9bn and RMB4.6bn, respectively, bolstered by the global craze for Labubu. Given strong growth momentum in 1H25, mgmt. raised the full-year 2025 guidance, targeting over RMB30bn revenue (previous: RMB20bn) and 35% adj. NPM. While the company's footprint in America was successful in 1H25, we believe overseas expansion remains in the early stages, with considerable potential in ...

I'm talking about Pop Mart now. Oh, no. I mean, that's I know where this is going.Oh, he's got to talk about it, right. Huge numbers rise out of a huge revenue and profit growth, boosted, of course, by the global demand for its hugely popular Labubu doll. That's a lot of huge in one sentence.Let's bring in our China correspondent Minmin Low to walk us through some of the key highlights of those results. Minmin. Yes, traders had really sky high expectations for the company, but not only met them, but beaten ...

Core Viewpoint - Xinyi Energy (XYE) reported a 23% year-on-year increase in net profit for 1H25, driven by higher power generation, reduced interest expenses, and lower tax expenses, despite a decline in gross margin due to worsening curtailment [1][2]. Financial Performance - XYE's net profit reached RMB450 million in 1H25, reflecting a 23% YoY growth, attributed to increased power generation and a 19% YoY reduction in interest expenses [2]. - Gross margin decreased to 61.8%, down 2.5 percentage points YoY, primarily due to deteriorating curtailment [2]. - Income tax expenses fell by 17% YoY, benefiting from lower withholding tax in 1H25 [2]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HK$0.029 per share, a 26% increase YoY, maintaining a 50% payout ratio [2]. Strategic Moves - XYE has demonstrated prudent asset acquisition strategies, acquiring only 30MW of new projects in 1H25 while awaiting clarity on provincial tariff policies [3]. - The company is pursuing overseas opportunities, particularly in Malaysia, where it is set to begin construction on a 100MW joint venture solar farm in 2H25, which is expected to enhance profitability in the long term [4]. Valuation and Outlook - The company maintains a BUY rating with a DCF-based target price of HK$1.50, factoring in lower interest rates and tax expenses [4]. - The target price implies a 4.1% dividend yield for 2026E, assuming a 50% payout ratio [4]. - A key catalyst for XYE in 2H25 is the potential collection of overdue subsidies, which has not yet been fully anticipated by the market [4].

Expansion Strategy - Dai-ichi Life is considering mergers and acquisitions in Southeast Asia to expand overseas [1] - The company is eyeing a growing but increasingly crowded market in Southeast Asia [1]

Core Insights - Noah Holdings Limited reported a strong recovery in profitability for Q1 2025, with non-GAAP net income increasing by 27.4% sequentially to RMB 168.8 million (US$23.3 million) and operating income rising 35.2% to RMB 186.0 million (US$25.6 million), resulting in an operating margin of 30.3% [1][3] - The company continues to face challenges from a volatile global macroeconomic environment and low-interest rates in mainland China, which have affected sentiment among Chinese high-net-worth investors (HNWIs) and overall topline growth [2][4] - Noah's CAPEX-light strategy has allowed it to maintain profitability and generate solid cash flow during its restructuring phase, while also making significant progress in building its sales teams and global infrastructure [2][3] Financial Performance - Total net revenues for the quarter were RMB 614.6 million (US$84.7 million), down 5.7% from the previous quarter and 5.4% year-over-year, primarily due to a decrease in insurance product distribution and RMB-denominated private equity service fees [4] - Overseas revenues grew by 5.0% sequentially to RMB 304.2 million (US$41.9 million), now accounting for nearly 50% of total net revenues, indicating successful overseas expansion efforts [4][6] - Operating costs and expenses were reduced by 16.7% sequentially and 18.8% year-over-year to RMB 428.6 million (US$59.1 million), driven by significant cuts in compensation and benefits [5] Overseas Expansion - Revenue from overseas investment products increased by 20.3% year-over-year, despite a 22.8% decline in overseas insurance sales [6] - USD-denominated assets under management rose 14.2% year-over-year to US$5.9 billion, while assets under advisory increased by 8.7% to US$9.1 billion [6] - The overseas relationship management team expanded by 44% year-over-year to 131, contributing to revenue growth, with a new office opened in Japan and ongoing exploration of opportunities in the US, Southeast Asia, and Canada [7] Domestic Restructuring - Domestic net revenues decreased to RMB 310.4 million, down 14.3% from the previous quarter and 9.4% year-over-year, attributed to weaker insurance distribution and lower private equity service fees [8] - Transaction value for RMB-denominated private secondary products surged 257.7% year-over-year to RMB 3.3 billion, with associated revenue contribution rising 9.4% year-over-year [8][9] Shareholder Returns - The company is prioritizing shareholder interests with a US$50 million share buyback program, having repurchased over 1.3 million ADSs to date [10] - Plans to distribute RMB 550 million in annual and special dividends in July 2025, equating to 100% of 2024's non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders, resulting in an 11% dividend yield at current prices [10] Strategic Priorities and Outlook - In 2025, the company aims to balance quality and quantity of growth overseas while ensuring compliance with local regulations, focusing on CAPEX-light strategies to drive expansion [12] - Investments in AI and technology are planned to enhance online service capabilities, alongside diversifying the product suite to meet evolving client needs [12] - The company is well-positioned for sustainable, profitable growth throughout 2025 and beyond, supported by a robust balance sheet and deepening overseas presence [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to several companies, including Huaming Equipment, Xuji Electric, and Goldcup Electric, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [7][18]. Core Insights - Chinese power equipment companies are experiencing significant overseas market share gains, with Huaming projecting over 30-35% revenue growth from international markets and Sanxing Medical reporting a 38% year-over-year increase in overseas revenue [2][4]. - The demand for power equipment is strong from both developed markets (DMs) like the US and EU, as well as emerging markets (EMs), with companies like Huaming and Sanxing planning to establish manufacturing facilities abroad to mitigate geopolitical risks [2][4]. - Local manufacturers are gradually increasing their market share in the data center sector, although foreign companies still dominate due to their established reputations for quality [6][4]. Summary by Sections Overseas Market Expansion - Huaming anticipates continued tightness in high voltage transformer supply, benefiting tap changer manufacturers, and expects overseas revenue growth of approximately 30-35% [4]. - Sanxing Medical Electric has seen a 38% increase in overseas revenue and a 27% growth in order backlog, with significant new orders for advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) [4][5]. Competitive Advantages of Chinese Manufacturers - Chinese manufacturers like Huaming stand out due to shorter lead times (4-6 weeks compared to over 12 months for competitors) and significantly lower average selling prices (ASP) [4][5]. - High levels of automation in manufacturing processes, with Sanxing achieving around 90% automation in its power meter plants, enhance efficiency and competitiveness [5]. Data Center Equipment Demand - Liangxin Electrical is witnessing rising demand for its products in the data center sector, although foreign brands still dominate due to their reliability [6]. - The company is optimistic about increasing acceptance of local products among state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which could lead to greater market share for domestic manufacturers [6]. Domestic Demand for Power Equipment - Huaming is optimistic about domestic demand for tap changers, projecting over 10% revenue growth, while Sanxing acknowledges competitive pressures in the domestic market [6]. - Liangxin Electrical expects a 20% revenue growth overall, driven by strong demand from the renewable energy sector and data centers, despite caution regarding the property sector [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Meituan with a 12-month price target of HK$172, indicating an upside potential of 30.9% from the current price of HK$131.40 [13]. Core Insights - Meituan is focused on defending its leadership in the food delivery market while expanding its Instashopping and Keeta initiatives internationally. The company anticipates a stabilization in the competitive landscape as subsidy levels rationalize over time [7][11]. - The report forecasts a 9% growth in order volume for Q2 2025 and an 8% growth for FY 2025, driven by industry-wide subsidies, although it expects a significant decline in food delivery EBIT due to increased user subsidies [7]. - Instashopping is projected to achieve a 27% growth in order volume for Q2 2025, with a long-term outlook of becoming a key driver for on-demand growth and local commerce profits [7]. - Keeta's expansion is gaining momentum, particularly in Saudi Arabia, with plans to enter Brazil contingent on infrastructure development. The report anticipates losses for Keeta but improving unit economics [7][11]. Summary by Sections Food Delivery Market - Meituan aims to maintain its GTV market share leadership by focusing on core user retention and diverse meal offerings. The company expects a 33% decline in food delivery EBIT for 2025 due to increased subsidies [7]. - The average daily order volume for food delivery is projected to grow from 70 million in 2024 to 77 million in 2025, with a slight decline in average order value [10]. Instashopping Growth - Instashopping is expected to see strong growth, with a projected GTV of Rmb 344 billion by 2025, reflecting a 24% year-on-year increase. The average daily order volume is anticipated to rise to 12.1 million [10]. - The report highlights that Instashopping's profitability is improving, with a small operating loss expected in Q2 2025 due to investments in marketing for shopping festivals [7]. Keeta Expansion - Keeta is experiencing strong growth in Saudi Arabia, with future expansion into Brazil dependent on infrastructure readiness. The report forecasts a loss of Rmb 10.4 billion for FY 2025 primarily due to Keeta's increased losses [7][11]. Financial Projections - Group revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 337.6 billion in 2024 to Rmb 382.5 billion in 2025, with a gross profit margin expected to stabilize around 38.4% [10]. - The report estimates adjusted EBIT for 2025 to be Rmb 30.5 billion, reflecting a decline from the previous year due to increased investments and subsidies [10].

Core Insights - Meituan reported 1Q25 revenue of RMB86.6 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, exceeding both internal forecasts and Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1% [1] - Adjusted net profit reached RMB10.9 billion, up 46% year-over-year, and was 12-13% higher than forecasts [1] - The core local commerce (CLC) segment generated RMB64.3 billion in revenue and RMB13.5 billion in operating profit, reflecting 18% and 39% year-over-year growth, respectively [2] Financial Performance - The operating profit for the CLC segment was 10% better than consensus estimates, primarily driven by the food delivery (FD) business due to user subsidy optimization [1] - Revenue from new initiatives was RMB22.2 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with an operating loss of RMB2.3 billion, which narrowed from RMB2.8 billion in 1Q24 [3] - The company expects solid revenue and earnings growth in the in-store hotel & travel (ISHT) segment to mitigate investment impacts in the short term [2] Strategic Initiatives - Meituan is actively responding to increasing competition in the food delivery and instant retail markets, aiming to maintain market share [2] - The company is committed to investing in international expansion to drive long-term revenue and earnings growth [1] - For 2Q25, revenue for new initiatives is estimated to grow by 21.5% year-over-year, driven by grocery retail and overseas FD business [3] Forecast Adjustments - Revenue and adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered by 1-2% and 11-21%, respectively, to account for additional investments in the FD business and overseas expansion [1] - The DCF-based target price was reduced by 9% to HK$181.6, translating into a 25x 2025E adjusted PE [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a year-over-year decline of 41% in net revenues, totaling $34.9 million compared to the same period last year [6] - A net loss of $1.64 million was reported, contrasting with a net income of $9.8 million in the same period last year [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The battery business experienced a significant decline, with net revenue dropping 54.6% to $20.36 million from $44.84 million in the prior year [6] - The electric vehicle business saw an increase of 11.9%, while the light electric vehicle segment grew by 88.4% [7] - The home energy storage business faced a decline of 60.4% [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Nanjing facility maintained strong growth, producing the competitive model 32,140, while the Dalian facility is undergoing a product portfolio upgrade [8] - The production line for model 32,140 in Nanjing is running at full capacity to meet robust market demand [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transitioning from the outdated model 26,650 to the promising model 41,35, with construction of the new manufacturing line expected to be completed in the second half of the year [7][8] - Plans to establish an overseas manufacturing facility in Southeast Asia are underway, driven by customer demand [10][11] - A dedicated manufacturing line in Southeast Asia is planned to support a large-scale four-year order, expected to begin production by mid-next year [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a significant recovery beginning next year once the Dalian facility upgrades are completed and model 41,35 is launched [13][14] - The company remains committed to maintaining a healthy gross margin to support the recovery of net income [14] Other Important Information - The company has reached an agreement in principle with a major customer for a high-volume purchase agreement, which includes substantial prepayments [11] - The decision to expand into Southeast Asia is entirely customer-driven, with favorable terms being negotiated [10][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confirmation of expansion goals for Dalian and Nanjing - The capacity for the Dalian facility remains at 2.3 gigawatt hours, with construction expected to be completed by June, while the Nanjing project will have a capacity of 1.5 gigawatt hours due to relocation of an assembly line [18][19] Question: Confidence in cylindrical cells for storage - The main market is home energy storage, where cylindrical cells are preferred due to design requirements for high voltage applications [20][22] Question: Demand pull from portable energy customers - Customers are seeking solutions to relocate manufacturing lines overseas, driven by tariff considerations, with ongoing negotiations for favorable terms [25][26]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, total group revenue was RMB 2.64 billion, down 12% year over year [9] - Adjusted operating income was RMB 280 million with a margin of 10.6% [9] - For fiscal 2024, total revenue was RMB 10.6 billion compared to RMB 12 billion in the previous year [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the Momo app and standalone new apps totaled RMB 9.7 billion, down 11% year over year [12] - Tantan's Q4 revenue was RMB 213 million, down 22% year over year due to a decrease in paying users [11] - Revenue from value-added services excluding Tantan totaled RMB 4.18 billion, down 6% year over year [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overseas business maintained robust growth, contributing significantly to the group's financials [6] - Revenue from standalone new apps grew 40% year over year, driven by overseas expansion [12] - Tantan's MAU declined by 10% sequentially to 10.8 million in September [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain the productivity of the Momo app while focusing on improving user experience and optimizing operational efficiency [13][14] - For Tantan, the strategy is to enhance the dating experience and build a sustainable business model while reducing user acquisition costs [78][80] - The company plans to increase investments in overseas markets and new product initiatives to drive growth [28][30] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges from the macroeconomic environment and regulatory changes but expressed confidence in the resilience of the Momo platform [56][58] - The outlook for Q1 2025 anticipates a revenue decline of 6.3% to 2.4% year over year, with expectations of a slight rebound in Q2 [45][61] - Management expects Tantan's revenue to decline by 20% in 2025 due to reduced marketing spend and operational adjustments [86] Other Important Information - The Board approved a special cash dividend of USD 0.3 per ADS, totaling approximately USD 15 million [32] - The company emphasized a flexible approach to capital allocation, preferring to invest in growth opportunities rather than committing to a fixed dividend policy [92] Q&A Session Summary Question: What caused the significant drop in paying users for Momo? - Management indicated that the drop was due to a strategic shift away from acquiring low-return paying users, which was necessary to improve profitability [52][53] Question: What are the adjustments to live streaming and value-added services? - Management stated that no major changes would be made to reduce earnings, focusing instead on enhancing user engagement and adding fun features [54] Question: What is the outlook for Tantan's revenue and profit in 2025? - Management expects a revenue decline of 20% to 30% for Tantan in 2025 due to reduced marketing spend and operational adjustments [86] Question: How does the company view its overseas business growth? - The overseas business is expected to grow significantly, with revenue projected to increase from around RMB 1 billion in 2024 to between RMB 1.7 billion to RMB 2 billion in 2025 [73] Question: What is the company's approach to capital returns? - Management prefers flexibility in capital allocation, indicating that a rigid dividend policy is not being considered, as they aim to optimize returns through various means [92]