Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's interim results for 1H25 showed significant growth, with revenue and net profit increasing by 204% and 396% year-on-year, respectively, driven by the popularity of Labubu [1][2] Financial Performance - In 1H25, Pop Mart's revenue reached RMB13.9 billion and net profit was RMB4.6 billion, aligning with the earlier profit alert [2] - Overseas revenue surged by 440% year-on-year to RMB5.6 billion, contributing 40.3% to total revenue, an increase of 17.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Online revenue grew by 365% year-on-year, making it the fastest-growing channel in 1H25 [2] - Gross profit margin improved by 6.3 percentage points to 70.3% in 1H25, supported by increased overseas revenue and enhanced bargaining power [2] - Net profit margin improved significantly from 24% in 2024 to 33% in 1H25 due to strong operating leverage and cost controls [2] Future Guidance - Management raised the full-year revenue target for 2025 from RMB20 billion to over RMB30 billion, with an expected adjusted net profit margin of 35% [3] - The company is focusing on the quality of new store openings, with a slower pace in China and faster growth overseas [3] Product Portfolio - Labubu remains a key contributor, accounting for 34.7% of revenue, while other IPs like Molly, Skullpanda, and Dimoo also showed strong growth [4] - Plush toys contributed 44% of total revenue, indicating a more balanced product mix [4] - A new Mini Labubu series was introduced, aimed at expanding usage scenarios [4] Operational Improvements - The company is enhancing production capacity through automation to address supply shortages experienced in 1H25 [5] - Efforts are being made to improve the shopping experience in retail stores and leverage TikTok livestreaming for sales [5] - Plans to enhance overseas online platforms for a more interactive customer experience are underway [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a strong growth trajectory driven by high-quality IP and robust domestic and international sales [2][3] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with a projected revenue of 30,480 million RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 133.78% [1][9] - The core IP matrix has shown explosive growth, with five IPs generating over 1 billion RMB in revenue, particularly "The Monsters" which achieved 48.14 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 668% [9][10] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In the first half of 2025, domestic revenue reached 82.83 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 135%, with both offline and online channels achieving triple-digit growth [3] - Offline retail store revenue was 44.06 billion RMB, up 120% year-on-year, driven by store optimization and upgrades [3] - Online sales also surged, with revenue from box machines reaching 11.25 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 182% [3] International Expansion - The company has expanded its overseas stores to 128, with a net increase of 28 stores since the beginning of the year, leading to a 440% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue to 55.93 billion RMB [4][10] - The Americas saw particularly strong growth, with revenue of 22.65 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1142% [4] Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, increasing the estimates to 10,688 million RMB for 2025, 15,146 million RMB for 2026, and 18,888 million RMB for 2027 [10][11] - The projected P/E ratios for the upcoming years are approximately 37 for 2025, 26 for 2026, and 21 for 2027 [10][11] Product and IP Development - The plush product category has become the largest revenue contributor, with sales of 61.39 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1276% [9][10] - The company is focusing on expanding its IP portfolio, with new IPs like "Crybaby" and "Star People" gaining significant traction [9][10]

潮玩更新：生态重构与消费边界突围，IP 潮玩步入历史机 遇期 20250820 摘要 泡泡玛特 2025 上半年营收增长强劲，海外线上渠道和单店效益提升是 主要驱动力。调整后净利润率达 33.9%，同比提升 11.6 个百分点，显 示盈利能力显著增强。 泡泡玛特全球各区域市场均实现三位数以上营收增长，其中美洲地区增 速高达十倍。亚太地区营收 28.5 亿元，同比增长超 250%。中国市场 营收同比增长 135%，经营利润率达 49%。 泡泡玛特形成"一超多强"IP 矩阵，拉布布营收 48 亿元，同比增长超 600%。Molly、School Panda、Crybaby 和 Demo 等 IP 收入均超 10 亿元，展现多元化 IP 运营能力。 毛绒品类成为泡泡玛特业绩增长新引擎，收入占比显著提升，增速达 1,276%，首次超过手办品类。公司计划推出 mini 拉啵啵等新品，并拓 展甜品、手饰、服装等新产品线。 泡泡玛特通过精益生产和自动化显著提升供应链产能，单月产能已达 2024 年同期十倍以上。潮玩行业自动化水平提升至 50%以上，推动产 品创新。 Q&A 泡泡玛特在 2025 年上半年取得了哪些重要的业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating strong growth potential and a solid investment opportunity [6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated robust financial performance, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 138.76 billion yuan, up 202.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 45.74 billion yuan, up 401.2% year-on-year [6]. - The company is leveraging its strong IP portfolio, with mature IP entering a harvesting phase and new IP showing high growth potential, reflecting the company's operational strength [6]. - The global expansion strategy is yielding results, with revenue from overseas markets growing significantly, particularly in the Americas and Europe, contributing to an increase in average product prices and overall profitability [6]. - The plush toy category leads growth, with other derivative businesses expected to continue amplifying the commercial value of the IP [6]. - The company is expected to maintain strong earnings growth, with projected EPS of 7.56, 11.24, and 14.55 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 34X, 23X, and 18X [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024A: 13,038 million yuan - 2025E: 31,941 million yuan - 2026E: 46,575 million yuan - 2027E: 59,598 million yuan - Net profit projections are: - 2024A: 3,125 million yuan - 2025E: 10,156 million yuan - 2026E: 15,097 million yuan - 2027E: 19,535 million yuan - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 70.82% in 2025E, up from 66.79% in 2024A [3][7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Pop Mart with a 12-month price target of HK$260, indicating a downside potential of 7.4% from the current price of HK$280.80 [17][18]. Core Insights - Pop Mart reported a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 204% and a net profit increase of 396% for the first half of 2025, surpassing Goldman Sachs estimates by 1% and 10% respectively [1][4]. - The strong performance was driven by robust sales growth in both domestic (135% YoY) and overseas markets (440% YoY), with the overseas sales mix increasing to 40.3% from 22.7% in the previous year [2][10]. - The company's core operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 17 percentage points year-on-year to 42%, attributed to a higher gross profit margin (GPM) and strong operational leverage [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total sales reached Rmb 13,876 million in 1H25, slightly above Goldman Sachs estimates [4][16]. - Net income attributable to equity holders was Rmb 4,574 million, exceeding estimates by 10% [14][16]. - The gross profit margin was reported at 70.3%, above the expected 69.4% [13][16]. Sales Breakdown - Sales in the PRC increased by 135% YoY to Rmb 8,283 million, while overseas sales surged by 440% YoY to Rmb 5,593 million [10][11]. - Proprietary products sales grew by 214% YoY, with the Monsters IP sales increasing by 668% YoY to Rmb 4.8 billion, representing 35% of total sales [11][12]. Market Expansion - The number of retail stores in the PRC increased to 443, while overseas stores reached 128, with significant growth in the Americas [13][10]. - The company plans to continue expanding its store count, with guidance for over 100 new stores for the full year [3][10]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of management's guidance update and strategies for IP portfolio expansion during the upcoming earnings meeting [2][3]. - Continued strong growth visibility into the second half of 2025 is expected, supported by the popularity of IPs and customer base expansion [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025 surged by 367% year-on-year to 4.66 billion RMB, driven by strong overseas market performance and the success of its IP matrix, particularly the new IP "Twinkle Twinkle" which generated 389 million RMB in sales within six months [1][2][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit reached 4.66 billion RMB, exceeding previous forecasts by 4% [2]. - Total revenue increased by 204% to 13.9 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations [2]. - Gross profit margin improved to 70.3%, up 6.3 percentage points from the previous year, while net profit margin rose to 33.0%, an increase of 12.8 percentage points [11]. Group 2: Overseas Market Expansion - Overseas sales, including Hong Kong and Macau, skyrocketed by 440% to 5.59 billion RMB, contributing approximately 50% to total group sales [3][4]. - The average sales per store in overseas markets are estimated to be four times higher than those in mainland China [3]. - Online sales in overseas markets increased significantly, with the proportion rising from 23.2% to 45.8% [3]. Group 3: IP Performance - The flagship IP Labubu saw sales grow by 668% to 4.81 billion RMB, accounting for 34.7% of total sales [7]. - The new IP "Twinkle Twinkle" achieved remarkable sales of 389 million RMB within its first six months, outperforming previous new IP launches [9]. - Crybaby, another established IP, ranked fourth in sales but experienced a 248% year-on-year growth, making it the second-fastest growing IP [10]. Group 4: Future Catalysts - The company is set to launch a collaboration with Uniqlo on August 22, which is expected to drive further sales [12][14]. - Potential inclusion in the Hang Seng Index could increase demand significantly, with estimates suggesting around 420 million USD in increased demand if added [12][14]. - Upcoming releases include the first season of "Labubu & Friends" animation and new product launches, which are anticipated to boost sales [12][14].

Summary of the Call Transcript on the Trendy Toy Industry Industry Overview - The trendy toy market was initiated by Hong Kong artists, integrating art and fashion elements, with diverse forms including figurines, sculptures, and blind boxes [1][2] - The broad definition of trendy toys includes collaborations with IPs from films, anime, and games, catering to specific enthusiasts [1][3] - The blind box segment has rapidly gained popularity due to low consumer and cognitive barriers, high adaptability, and hidden design features [1][4] Key Insights - **Consumer Demographics**: The core audience for trendy toys is aged between 15 and 40, with a higher proportion of female users, although the overall gender ratio is becoming more balanced [1][6][8] - **Market Size and Growth**: The domestic trendy toy market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2026, with blind boxes showing high growth rates. The IP toy market is projected to be around 700 billion yuan, with building and assembly toys accounting for about 30% [1][11][12] - **Market Competition**: The market is fragmented, with LEGO leading at 12 billion yuan GMV, followed by Pop Mart at 8.7 billion and Brook at 2.5 billion. The top ten companies hold about 50% of the market share [1][13] Success Factors for Trendy Toy Companies - **Traffic IP**: Successful companies leverage high-traffic IPs, typically character designs rather than content-based, due to their higher commercialization potential [4][5] - **Product Quality**: High-quality products are essential, requiring effective design and supply chain barriers [5] - **Social Media and Secondary Market**: Effective social media marketing enhances brand visibility, while a convenient secondary market facilitates transactions [5] - **Entertainment and Interaction**: Creating engaging purchase experiences and interactive scenarios increases consumer entertainment value [5] Consumer Needs in Blind Box Purchases - **Value for Money**: Consumers seek affordable and easily accessible products [7] - **Emotional Connection**: There is a desire for self-identity, curiosity, and social recognition through collecting [7][6] - **Social Interaction**: Collecting and trading through social platforms fosters community engagement [7] IP Acquisition and Market Dynamics - **IP Acquisition**: The domestic market primarily acquires IP through self-incubation and collaborations with independent artists, with IP accounting for a small percentage of GMV [10] - **Future Trends**: The market is still in its early stages, with potential for structural changes and innovation in product categories [12] Company Strategies - **Pop Mart's Expansion**: Pop Mart is expanding its IP matrix and product categories, with plans to open 320 stores next year, increasing its overseas presence significantly [2][16][21] - **52TOYS Strategy**: 52TOYS focuses on a combination of self-owned and licensed IPs, with a significant portion of revenue coming from external IPs [22][23] Sales Channels and Revenue - **Diverse Sales Channels**: Both companies are diversifying their sales channels, with a significant reliance on distributors while also expanding direct-to-consumer (D2C) models [24][21] - **Revenue Projections**: 52TOYS generates 70-80% of its revenue from licensed IPs, with a focus on static blind boxes and figurines [23] Future Outlook - **IPO Plans**: The companies are preparing for potential IPOs, with Pop Mart expected to file in Hong Kong, aiming for a listing in 2025 or 2026 [26]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Consumer Sector**: Focus on new and traditional consumer stocks - **Specific Companies**: Bubble Mart, Giant Bio, Yum China, Anta, Old Paved Gold, Chow Tai Fook, Haidilao, China Duty Free Group (CDFG), Macau Gaming Industry Core Points and Arguments 1. **Consumer Stock Performance**: New consumer stocks underperformed the market, while traditional consumer stocks remained flat, influenced by policy expectations against "involution" [1][2] 2. **Investment Focus**: Emphasis on fundamental analysis for the second half of the year, with consumer confidence recovering but spending not significantly increasing [1][3] 3. **Stock Selection Criteria**: Maintain focus on performance reversal, high growth potential, and high return certainty [1][3] 4. **Recommendations**: - Dairy industry expected to balance supply and demand, leading to price recovery - Bubble Mart and Giant Bio identified as high-growth stocks - Yum China and Anta recommended for their strong governance and long-term holding potential [1][4][6][7] 5. **Bubble Mart's Performance**: After a strong earnings report, the stock experienced profit-taking, but is expected to see a profit growth of 40%-45% by 2026, with a PE ratio of 21-22 [1][11][12] 6. **Giant Bio's Growth**: Sales performance is strong, but faces high base pressure in Q4; potential for 20% profit compound growth over the next two years [1][17] 7. **Gold and Jewelry Sector**: High demand for premium products, but stable gold prices may affect growth rates; Old Paved Gold faces margin pressure [1][18][19] 8. **Macau Gaming Industry**: Exceeded expectations with GGR growth of 19% in June and July, driven by increased visitor numbers; full-year GGR growth target raised to 10% [1][24][25] 9. **Yum China's Stock Decline**: Stock price drop attributed to cautious revenue growth expectations; despite challenges, still viewed as a long-term holding [1][10] 10. **Haidilao's Challenges**: Facing pressure from macroeconomic factors and competition from food delivery platforms, leading to expected revenue decline [1][21] 11. **China Duty Free Group's Performance**: Underperformed expectations with an 8% revenue decline; future growth dependent on stability in Hainan and airport sales [1][22] 12. **Hotel Industry Outlook**: Poor performance in summer 2025, with RevPAR down 1-2%; future growth uncertain [1][23] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Bubble Mart's Supply Chain Strategy**: Focus on increasing capacity utilization and direct-to-consumer sales to balance supply and demand [1][15] 2. **Giant Bio's Innovation**: Emphasis on new product development and research to maintain competitive edge [1][17] 3. **Chow Tai Fook vs. Old Paved Gold**: Differing strategies in brand positioning and expansion, with Chow Tai Fook being more aggressive [1][20] 4. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: Shift in consumer perception towards collectible toys, with adults increasingly purchasing Bubble Mart products [1][26]

联合研究丨专题报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title] IP 衍生品产业研究（十）：复盘 Labubu 发展历 程，如何看待爆品 IP 的"运"与"势"？ 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 复盘 Labubu 发展历程，爆品 IP 的"运"与"势"相辅相成。"势"为根基：创作者龙家升的 跨文化艺术底蕴注入独特性，"丑萌"反叛形象精准契合时代审美潮流，产品形态创新（搪胶毛 绒挂件）打破场景边界，构成 IP 长线生命力的内核；"运"为催化：Lisa 等明星的偶然曝光成 为破圈契机，二手市场溢价、高价拍卖则放大热度。Labubu 的发展历程，是泡泡玛特践行 IP 集团化战略的体现，IP 矩阵分层开发、娱乐场景立体渗透（乐园沉浸+游戏互动+影视叙事）和 全球化文化适配，推动从潮玩向综合性娱乐集团的转型，将"运"转化为"势"的延续力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 蔡方羿 高超 仲敏丽 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490516080001 SAC：S0490522050001 SFC：BUV463 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Toy and Collectibles Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for the first half of the year is expected to be no less than 450 million RMB, with a profit margin of 33.5%, an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the second half of last year, indicating enhanced profitability and a solid fundamental outlook [2][4] - The company anticipates significant growth in 2026 driven by channel expansion in the US and Europe, new IP launches, and sustained growth of existing IPs [3] Market Expansion - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, adding 5-6 new stores in the US in July, with active openings in the European market, indicating a strong strategic focus on global market penetration [2][5] - The domestic market has exceeded expectations, with significant increases in foot traffic and per-store revenue, suggesting a "re-recognition" phenomenon among consumers [2][30] IP Development - The Labubu IP has surpassed many well-known IPs globally, achieving an annual revenue of 10 billion RMB, placing it in the third tier of global IPs, although its future development path requires attention [2][32] - Classic products have shown extended sales cycles, indicating stable and lasting demand, which will provide a solid revenue base for the company [2][11] Supply Chain and Inventory Management - The company has adopted a strategy of bulk replenishment to stabilize market prices and meet consumer demand, reflecting strong demand and potentially increasing EPS [2][9] - Frequent replenishment has become a normalized operational rhythm, with a significant impact on domestic revenue growth expected in Q1 2025 due to replenishment activities [9] Challenges and Market Dynamics - The recent market performance has been relatively stable despite fluctuations in stock prices due to shifts in investment focus towards new consumption and AI applications [4] - The company is addressing the decline in scalper prices due to concentrated replenishment of Labubu versions, which has altered supply-demand dynamics [8] Future Growth Strategies - The upcoming mid-year performance meeting is highly anticipated for insights on store opening pace, category expansion, and new IP plans [6] - The company plans to increase its store count in the US from 40-50 to around 200, while also expanding in Europe [34][35] Regional Market Insights - The Southeast Asian market has been a strong performer, with significant revenue contributions and new store openings in Thailand and Indonesia [29] - The European market is viewed as strategically important, with ongoing expansion and a focus on artist collaborations and limited edition products [27][28] Consumer Demographics and Market Penetration - The domestic toy market still has considerable penetration potential, with estimates suggesting that 200 million people could be potential consumers of trendy toys [31] - The company has approximately 46 million registered members in China, indicating significant room for growth in market penetration [31] Long-term IP Management - The Labubu IP has crossed the threshold of 10 billion RMB in global peripheral revenue, indicating its potential for long-term operation and growth [32][33] - The company is confident in the long-term operational capabilities of its IPs, supported by successful category expansions and market adaptations [33] Additional Important Insights - The company is exploring diverse operational formats to enhance brand influence, including opening jewelry stores and establishing theme parks [22] - The search heat for Pop Mart's IPs in various countries indicates strong market interest, with notable performance in Thailand and the Philippines [20][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Pop Mart's financial performance, market strategies, IP development, and future growth potential.