液化石油气日报 | 2025-11-25 外盘偏强运行，市场阻力仍存 市场分析 1、\t11月24日地区价格：山东市场，4300-4440；东北市场，4010-4150；华北市场，4250-4390；华东市场，4170-4350； 沿江市场，4420-4760；西北市场，4300-4350；华南市场，4300-4450。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年12月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷569美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷559美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4438元/吨，涨53元/吨，丁烷4360元/吨，涨53元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年12月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷561美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷551美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折 外盘延续震荡反弹态势，高贴水提振到岸成本，国内LPG现货与盘面受到一定支撑。随着国内炼厂商品量下滑、 到港量减少，LPG基本面一度呈现边际收紧的态势，但持续性存疑，上周到货与港口库存再度出现回升。中期来 看，整体供需格局并未逆转，海外货源相对充裕，下游化工需求受制于利润增长动力不足，将抑制市场的上方空 间。整体来看，LPG市 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-11-21 现货涨跌互现，市场驱动有限 市场分析 1、\t11月20日地区价格：山东市场，4260-4400；东北市场，4040-4150；华北市场，4250-4400；华东市场，4170-4350； 沿江市场，4510-4810；西北市场，4300-4350；华南市场，4250-4450。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年12月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷567美元/吨，跌1美元/吨，丁烷557美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4426元/吨，跌5元/吨，丁烷4348元/吨，跌20元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年12月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷559美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷549美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4364元/吨，跌20元/吨，丁烷4285元/吨，跌36元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近期在外盘价格上涨、LPG到岸成本受到高贴水支撑的背景下，PG盘面呈现震荡偏强运行。现货方面，昨日整山 东、华北区域部分下调，其余区域维稳，整体氛围尚可，下游按需采购。就LPG自身基本面而言，海外供应相对 充裕，国内商品受检 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on observation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - Despite a significant drop in crude oil prices, the LPG market remained relatively strong. The external market continued its rebound, and high discounts supported the cost of arrival. The PG futures market fluctuated with a slight upward trend, while domestic spot prices showed a mixed performance. In the short term, the LPG fundamentals tightened marginally due to a decline in domestic refinery product volume and a decrease in arrivals, providing some support to the market. However, in the medium term, the overall supply - demand pattern has not reversed. Abundant overseas supplies and limited downstream chemical demand due to insufficient profit growth may restrict the market's upside potential [1] 3. Market Analysis Summary - **Regional Spot Prices on November 13**: Shandong market: 4330 - 4460 yuan/ton; Northeast market: 3960 - 4110 yuan/ton; North China market: 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton; East China market: 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region: 4520 - 4780 yuan/ton; Northwest market: 4170 - 4250 yuan/ton; South China market: 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton [1] - **China's East China Frozen Cargo Arrival Prices in the First Half of December 2025**: Propane was 550 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton, equivalent to 4291 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Butane was 541 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4221 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [1] - **China's South China Frozen Cargo Arrival Prices in the First Half of December 2025**: Propane was 550 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4244 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Butane was 535 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4174 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with prices oscillating between $63 - 65 this week and a slightly lower price center; the CP November contract price showing supply - side pressure; the US propane inventory at a historical high and demand being seasonally weak; and the domestic fundamental situation with a slight contraction in supply and relatively strong chemical demand [2][5]. - There are both negative and positive factors. Negative factors are the continuous losses in the domestic PDH sector and the shrinking Asian cracking profit which may reduce the demand for PG as a cracking substitute. Positive factors are the potential avoidance of a US government shutdown and the supply - decrease and demand - increase in the fundamentals this week, along with a rebound in civil gas prices [5]. Summaries by Catalog LPG Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.77% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 9.53% [1]. LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short the PG2512 futures at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 4400 - 4500 to lock in profits and cover production costs, and sell the PG2512C4400 call option at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1]. Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy the PG2512 futures at 25% hedging ratio around 4000 to lock in procurement costs, and sell the PG2512P4000 put option at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 50 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops [1]. Industry Data Summary - The data shows the prices, spreads, month - spreads, ratios, and profits of various LPG - related products on different dates from November 4 to November 11, 2025, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with the current price oscillating around $65, and OPEC maintaining an increasing production state [2] - The November CP contract price was announced, with propane at $475/ton (-$20) and butane at $460/ton (-$15), better than expected. The equivalent RMB landed cost is about 4394 yuan/ton for propane and 4276 yuan/ton for butane [2] - US propane inventories continued to accumulate this week, reaching a historical high and waiting for an inventory inflection point [2] - The State Council adjusted tariff - adding measures on November 10, 2025. The 24% tariff on US imports will be suspended for one year, and the 10% tariff on PG will remain, which helps stabilize logistics [3] - During the Sino - US talks this week, an agreement was reached on issues such as tariffs and export controls, and the Sino - US economic and trade friction was suspended [4] - The domestic LPG fundamentals are relatively stable. Supply increased this week, while demand remained stable. However, due to the rise in propane price and the decline in PL/PP price, PDH profits were significantly compressed. Continuous or deepening losses may cause negative feedback [4] - PDH losses may cause negative feedback, and propane cracking profits have also shrunk below zero [5] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price Range Prediction - The predicted monthly price range for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.37% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 35.54% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures at 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2512C4400 call options at 60 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at around 4000 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2512P4000 put options at 50 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the PG price drops [1] Industry Data Summary - The report provides price, spread, monthly spread, price ratio, and profit data for various LPG - related products on different dates, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [7] Seasonal Data - The report presents seasonal data for prices, spreads, monthly spreads, price ratios, profits, and freight rates of various LPG - related products, such as LPG futures, FEI, CP, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [9][11][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the single - side strategy is neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing. There are no specific ratings mentioned for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current LPG fundamentals remain weak. Supply is relatively abundant, with high overseas exports from the Middle East and North America and a slight domestic supply decline due to maintenance. Demand shows limited improvement in the combustion end and weak growth in deep - processing demand [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - On November 4, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4260 - 4370; Northeast market, 3630 - 4010; North China market, 4350 - 4450; East China market, 4150 - 4290; Yangtze River market, 4500 - 4730; Northwest market, 4080 - 4200; South China market, 4320 - 4430 [1] - In the first half of December 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China decreased by 7 dollars/ton, equivalent to a 54 yuan/ton drop for propane and a 53 yuan/ton drop for butane in RMB terms. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane also decreased by 7 dollars/ton, with corresponding RMB price drops of 54 yuan/ton for propane and 53 yuan/ton for butane [1] - In the spot market, prices in the Northeast, East China, and Yangtze River regions rose steadily, while other regions remained stable. Downstream buyers mostly purchased on demand, and the trading atmosphere was average [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - side crude oil being under supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, leading to increased volatility; the CP October contract price dropping unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15), and the November price expected to decline further; Sino - US relations being uncertain despite an overall positive trend; the domestic LPG fundamental situation having minor changes, with increased civil gas supply suppressing spot prices, stable chemical demand, and weak combustion demand. There are also some positive factors such as the good Sino - US negotiations and the demand support from FN spread and relatively good propane cracking profit [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.85% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 37.75% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4400 - 4500. Also, sell PG2512C4400 call options to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 60 - 70 [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at a low price on the disk to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 3800 - 4000. Also, sell PG2512P4000 put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 50 - 70 [1] Industry Data Summary - Various data including prices, spreads, monthly spreads, ratios, and profits are presented. For example, on October 29, 2025, Brent was at $64.3, WTI at $60.36, and the LPG main contract closing price was 4312. There are also details about differentials such as FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, etc., and profit data like盘面进口利润 - FEI and Asian propane cracking profit [5] Seasonal Data - There are numerous seasonal data presented, such as FEI M1, CP M1, MB M1, NWE C3 M1 price seasonality; FEI, CP, MB, LPG cheapest delivery product price and basis seasonality; various spread, monthly spread, ratio, and profit seasonality; and freight and Panama Canal water - level seasonality [7][10][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] Core View - Crude oil prices continued to rebound under the stimulus of news such as increased US sanctions on Russia, driving up the energy sector including PG. However, the fundamentals of the LPG market remained largely unchanged, with a loose supply - demand pattern. The industry was waiting for the results of China - US trade negotiations. Although the PG futures followed the crude oil rebound, the spot market reaction was relatively flat. Given the current window period of undecided major macro - events and frequent news disturbances, caution was advised [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On October 23, regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4300 - 4360 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3830 - 4010 yuan/ton; North China market, 4100 - 4400 yuan/ton; East China market, 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4370 - 4630 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton; South China market, 4250 - 4480 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 548 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 553 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4278 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton) and 4317 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 542 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 547 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4232 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton) and 4271 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - Spot prices: North China and Shandong civil LPG prices rose yesterday. East China civil LPG and ether - after carbon four mainstream transaction prices remained stable, with a stable market atmosphere and downstream procurement on demand [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Holders of previous short positions can take appropriate profit, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. There are no recommendations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is facing pressure. The overall supply - demand pattern remains loose, with abundant overseas supply, high exports from the Middle East and North America, and potential for further growth. Saudi CP official prices are continuously decreasing, and high arrival volumes and port inventories in China are suppressing the domestic market. Downstream chemical profits are shrinking, limiting the growth of chemical terminal demand, and the improvement in combustion terminal consumption after the off - season is weak. There is a lack of positive factors in the market. Although price drops may lead to profit repair and increased buying, the threat of US tariffs adds new uncertainties, so short - term caution is recommended [1] 3) Summary According to Related Contents Market Analysis - On October 13, regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4430 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3960 - 4360 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton; East China market, 4240 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4670 - 4890 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4500 - 4600 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of November 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane in East China were 532 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) and 512 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4159 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton) and 4002 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 527 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) and 507 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4120 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton) and 3963 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - Recently, the LPG futures market has been weak, and the basis has strengthened. Spot prices in various regions mainly declined yesterday. In the East China civil gas market, the mainstream transaction price decreased compared to the previous working day, with sufficient supply and average market sentiment [1] Charts - The report includes charts showing the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions, the spot prices of ether - after carbon four in multiple regions, and the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of PG futures contracts [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral to bearish, short the PG main contract on rallies [2] Core Viewpoints - The LPG market still faces pressure, and the post - holiday market may gradually digest negative factors. Attention should be paid to the improvement of downstream chemical profit and demand after the reduction of the CP cost center [1] Market Analysis - **Regional Prices on October 9**: Shandong market: 4520 - 4560; Northeast market: 4020 - 4280; North China market: 4350 - 4600; East China market: 4260 - 4630; Yangtze River market: 4590 - 4830; Northwest market: 4400 - 4500; South China market: 4548 - 4750 [1] - **November 2025 Prices**: In East China, propane CIF price is 540 USD/ton (down 8 USD/ton), butane is 520 USD/ton (down 15 USD/ton), equivalent to RMB propane 4227 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan/ton), butane 4070 yuan/ton (down 115 yuan/ton). In South China, propane CIF price is 535 USD/ton (down 6 USD/ton), butane is 515 USD/ton (down 13 USD/ton), equivalent to RMB propane 4188 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan/ton), butane 4031 yuan/ton (down 99 yuan/ton) [1] - **Market Performance**: On the previous day, the domestic LPG futures dropped significantly, with the main contract PG2511 down 5.19% at the afternoon close. In the spot market, prices in the Northwest region decreased, while other regions remained stable. The market was mild, and upstream sales were acceptable [1] - **Supply Situation**: Overseas supply remained abundant with potential for further growth. Domestic commodity supply fluctuated slightly but overall remained abundant [1] - **Demand Situation**: Recently, with the temperature drop, downstream users in the combustion sector actively entered the market. There was limited change in the deep - processing sector [1] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral to bearish, short the PG main contract on rallies [2] - **Inter - period**: None [2] - **Inter - variety**: None [2] - **Futures - cash**: None [2] - **Options**: None [2]