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液化石油气日报:市场压力仍存,节后盘面消化利空-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:57
液化石油气日报 | 2025-10-10 市场压力仍存,节后盘面消化利空 市场分析 1、\t10月9日地区价格:山东市场,4520-4560;东北市场,4020-4280;华北市场,4350-4600;华东市场,4260-4630; 沿江市场,4590-4830;西北市场,4400-4500;华南市场,4548-4750。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 2、\t2025年11月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷540美元/吨,跌8美元/吨,丁烷520美元/吨,跌15美元/吨,折 合人民币价格丙烷4227元/吨,跌60元/吨,丁烷4070元/吨,跌115元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 3、\t2025年11月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷535美元/吨,跌6美元/吨,丁烷515美元/吨,跌13美元/吨,折 合人民币价格丙烷4188元/吨,跌44元/吨,丁烷4031元/吨,跌99元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1:山东民用液化气现货价格 | 单位:元/吨 3 | | --- | --- | | 图2:华东民用液化气现货价格 | 单位:元/吨 3 ...
液化石油气日报:节前卖方排库,下游逢低补货-20250930
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The mainstream price of LPG remains stable. Before the holiday, the demand is mainly for essential needs. Sellers focus on inventory reduction, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. The overseas supply remains abundant, and the domestic supply also maintains an overall abundant state. The increase in the demand of the combustion terminal is lower than expected, and the growth of deep - processing is limited by profit factors. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG is relatively loose, and there is strong resistance in the market. After continuous corrections, it is expected that the short - term downward space of the futures market is limited, but it lacks the impetus to strengthen [1] Market Analysis - On September 29, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market: 4,550 - 4,600 yuan; Northeast market: 4,020 - 4,280 yuan; North China market: 4,400 - 4,650 yuan; East China market: 4,210 - 4,630 yuan; Yangtze River region market: 4,590 - 4,830 yuan; Northwest market: 4,400 - 4,500 yuan; South China market: 4,548 - 4,750 yuan [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 595 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 582 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4,657 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and butane was 4,555 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 588 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 575 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4,602 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and butane was 4,500 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1] Figures - Figures include the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River region; the spot prices of ether - post - carbon - four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River region, and Northwest; the closing prices of PG futures' main contract, index, and near - month contract; the near - month spread of PG futures; and the trading volume and open interest of PG futures' main contract and total [3]
液化石油气日报:PDH装置利润连续下滑,需求增长动力不足-20250926
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:15
液化石油气日报 | 2025-09-26 PDH装置利润连续下滑,需求增长动力不足 市场分析 1、\t9月25日地区价格:山东市场,4540-4600;东北市场,4000-4260;华北市场,4400-4650;华东市场,4260-4550; 沿江市场,4540-4700;西北市场,4400-4500;华南市场,4498-4670。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 2、\t2025年10月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨,跌5美元/吨,丁烷583美元/吨,跌5美元/吨,折 合人民币价格丙烷4666元/吨,跌37元/吨,丁烷4565元/吨,跌36元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 3、\t2025年10月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷589美元/吨,跌5美元/吨,丁烷576美元/吨,跌5美元/吨,折 合人民币价格丙烷4612元/吨,跌36元/吨,丁烷4510元/吨,跌36元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 近日PG盘面呈现震荡下跌走势,昨日有所企稳但反弹乏力,反映基本面宽松的格局并未逆转,市场预期偏弱。现 货方面,昨日国内现货价格涨跌互现。其中,华东民用气市场主流价格出现下调,成交尚可,走量优先。当地醚 后碳四价 ...
液化石油气日报:现货大体持稳,市场驱动有限-20250925
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:35
1、\t9月24日地区价格:山东市场,4510-4570;东北市场,4000-4310;华北市场,4400-4650;华东市场,4300-4550; 沿江市场,4460-4700;西北市场,4400-4500;华南市场,4498-4750。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 2、\t2025年10月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷601美元/吨,涨3美元/吨,丁烷588美元/吨,涨3美元/吨,折 合人民币价格丙烷4703元/吨,涨25元/吨,丁烷4601元/吨,涨25元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 3、\t2025年10月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷594美元/吨,涨3美元/吨,丁烷581美元/吨,涨3美元/吨,折 合人民币价格丙烷4648元/吨,涨25元/吨,丁烷4546元/吨,涨24元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 液化石油气日报 | 2025-09-25 现货大体持稳,市场驱动有限 市场分析 近日PG盘面呈现震荡下跌走势,反映基本面宽松的格局并未逆转,市场预期偏弱。现货方面,昨日东北、沿江市 场小幅下跌,其他地区大体持稳,下游按需购进,氛围尚可。目前来看,由于海外供应较为充裕,国内化工需求 增长受到利润因素限制, ...
液化石油气日报:盘面震荡运行,上行驱动有限-20250918
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 03:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is currently oscillating with limited upward drivers. After the market rebound, resistance factors have emerged. Although the fundamentals are relatively stable, the overall operating rate has declined due to some device overhauls. The LPG market has short - term support but lacks further upward drivers, and its price breakthrough space may be limited without unexpected macro or supply - disruption events [1] - The recommended strategy for the LPG market is to take a long position on the PG main contract when the price is low during the period of a fluctuating and slightly bullish trend, and the previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated when the price is high [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On September 17, the regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4520 - 4550 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3970 - 4330 yuan/ton; North China market, 4350 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4450 - 4550 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4610 - 4800 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4550 - 4650 yuan/ton; South China market, 4498 - 4690 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 605 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton) and 585 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4730 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) and 4573 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 598 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton) and 578 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4675 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) and 4519 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - In the spot market, the price in South China rose slightly yesterday, while the mainstream prices in other regions remained stable. The trading atmosphere was average, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. After the market rebound, resistance factors emerged. As the raw material cost rebounded, the profit of PDH shrank again, and the overall operating rate declined due to some device overhauls. However, the fundamentals were relatively stable. Looking forward, the LPG market has short - term support but lacks further upward drivers [1] Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the PG main contract when the price is low, and the previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated when the price is high [2] - Inter - month spread: No recommendation [2] - Cross - commodity spread: No recommendation [2] - Spot - futures: No recommendation [2] - Options: No recommendation [2]
液化石油气日报:PDH装置开工率回落-20250912
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 05:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core View of the Report - LPG market sentiment has marginally improved recently, with the external market price rebounding continuously and the PG futures showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. However, the market is currently in a state with support at the bottom but limited upward drivers. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, yet the global oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is still weak. As the LPG price rebounds, PDH profits shrink again, and the device operating rate has dropped to around 70% this week, creating resistance in the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 11, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4530 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3990 - 4260 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4450 - 4620 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4560 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4580 - 4705 yuan/ton; South China market, 4498 - 4690 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of October 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 605 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 585 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4733 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton, and butane was 4577 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 598 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 578 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4678 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton, and butane was 4522 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton [1]. - Yesterday, the prices in Shandong and South China dropped, while the mainstream transaction price in the East China civil gas market remained stable with a fair sales atmosphere [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be volatile and upward - trending. There are opportunities to go long on the PG main contract on dips, but the expected upside space is limited. No strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].
液化石油气日报:中东9月LPG发货量显著增加-20250911
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The LPG market's sentiment has marginally improved recently. With the stabilization and rebound of crude oil prices, the outer - market price has continued to rise. The domestic civil LPG spot price was generally stable, with a decline in Shandong. The LPG market currently has support but limited upward drivers. The near - term fundamentals are acceptable, but the global oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is still weak. Notably, there are signs of a significant increase in Middle - East LPG exports [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 10, regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market 4,480 - 4,560 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3,940 - 4,250 yuan/ton; North China market 4,300 - 4,650 yuan/ton; East China market 4,450 - 4,620 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market 4,560 - 4,850 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4,580 - 4,750 yuan/ton; South China market 4,498 - 4,730 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were: propane at 605 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4,733 yuan/ton (up 43 yuan/ton); butane at 585 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4,577 yuan/ton (up 43 yuan/ton). In South China, propane was at 598 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4,678 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton); butane was at 578 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4,522 yuan/ton (up 43 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to Kpler shipping schedule data, the Middle - East LPG shipments in September are expected to be 4.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 640,000 tons. However, the destination of 1.5 million tons of shipments is not clear and requires continuous attention [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. There are opportunities to go long on the PG main contract at low prices, but the expected upside is limited. No strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Figures - There are 18 figures in the report, including those showing the spot prices of civil LPG and ether - post carbon four in different regions, as well as the closing prices, month - on - month spreads, trading volumes, and open interests of PG futures contracts [3].
液化石油气日报:现货涨跌互现,产销尚可-20250905
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 08:34
Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The LPG market sentiment shows signs of marginal improvement, but the sharp decline in oil prices yesterday led to a correction in the futures market. Although PG is relatively resistant to decline in the energy sector, it cannot completely escape the impact. The spot market shows mixed trends, with prices in North China, East China, Northwest China, and South China rising steadily, prices in the Yangtze River region declining, and prices in other regions remaining stable. The LPG market is currently in a state with support at the bottom but limited upward momentum. If OPEC continues to increase production in the future, it will not only drive down oil prices but also increase the supply of Middle East LPG following the increase in crude oil, putting new pressure on the LPG market [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The market is expected to be moderately bullish. It is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to go long on the PG main contract on dips, but the upside potential is expected to be limited [2]. - **Inter - period**: No specific strategy is proposed [2]. - **Inter - commodity**: No specific strategy is proposed [2]. - **Futures - spot**: No specific strategy is proposed [2]. - **Options**: No specific strategy is proposed [2]. Market Analysis - **Regional Spot Prices on September 4**: Shandong market: 4,550 - 4,610 yuan/ton; Northeast market: 3,900 - 4,280 yuan/ton; North China market: 4,050 - 4,650 yuan/ton; East China market: 4,450 - 4,570 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market: 4,760 - 4,900 yuan/ton; Northwest market: 4,550 - 4,720 yuan/ton; South China market: 4,438 - 4,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **China's East China Frozen Cargo Arrival Prices in the First Half of October 2025**: Propane: 594 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4,646 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Butane: 570 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4,459 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton [1]. - **China's South China Frozen Cargo Arrival Prices in the First Half of October 2025**: Propane: 587 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4,592 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; Butane: 563 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4,404 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton [1].
液化石油气日报:盘面受到原油端扰动,现货价格延续上涨-20250828
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 05:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The LPG market has shown some marginal positive factors recently (such as rising international freight rates and improved chemical demand), and market sentiment has improved. The PG futures market is in a volatile and slightly stronger state, with the decline of the PG futures market smaller than that of the crude oil market. The spot market has continued to rise. However, considering that the supply - demand pattern of LPG has not been substantially reversed, the driving force and space for the market to rise continuously may be limited, but there is some short - term support [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On August 27, the regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4500 - 4630 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3880 - 4130 yuan/ton; North China market, 4100 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4350 - 4550 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4610 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; South China market, 4600 - 4630 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of September 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane in East China were 583 US dollars/ton and 558 US dollars/ton respectively, down 3 US dollars/ton each, equivalent to 4564 yuan/ton and 4368 yuan/ton in RMB, down 29 yuan/ton each. In South China, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane were 575 US dollars/ton and 550 US dollars/ton respectively, down 3 US dollars/ton each, equivalent to 4501 yuan/ton and 4306 yuan/ton in RMB, down 29 yuan/ton and 28 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - After a continuous weak market, the LPG market has some marginal positive factors recently. The market sentiment has improved, and the pressure of warehouse receipt cancellation has eased. Although the decline in oil prices has disturbed the LPG market, the decline of the PG futures market is smaller than that of the crude oil market. The spot market has continued to rise, with good trading in East China's civil LPG [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. There are opportunities to go long on the PG main contract at low prices, but the expected space is limited. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].
盘面筑底反弹,但驱动仍有限
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:22
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report In the context of the PG market trading at a low level, recent marginal positive factors (rising international freight rates and improved chemical demand) have led to an improvement in market sentiment. With the main contract switching to 2510, the market shows signs of bottom - building and rebound. However, considering that the LPG supply - demand pattern has not reversed substantially, the driving force and space for the market to continue rising may be limited [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - **Regional Prices on August 21**: Shandong market: 4420 - 4520 yuan/ton; Northeast market: 3950 - 4130 yuan/ton; North China market: 4280 - 4620 yuan/ton; East China market: 4330 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market: 4480 - 4760 yuan/ton; Northwest market: 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market: 4478 - 4580 yuan/ton [1]. - **China's Imported Prices in Mid - to - Late September 2025**: In East China, the CIF price of propane is 579 dollars/ton (up 1 dollar/ton), and that of butane is 556 dollars/ton (down 2 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4544 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton) for propane and 4363 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB. In South China, the CIF price of propane is 571 dollars/ton (up 1 dollar/ton), and that of butane is 548 dollars/ton (down 2 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4481 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton) for propane and 4301 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply remains abundant with high overseas supply, concentrated arrivals, and an increase in domestic commodity volume. On the demand side, combustion - end demand is weak due to high summer temperatures, while chemical - end demand has improved marginally, with the PDH operating rate reaching a high level this year, but the momentum for further strengthening is limited [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The market is expected to fluctuate. Traders can focus on short - term rebound opportunities at low PG levels, but the upside space is limited. There are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2].