2025 年 12 月 5 日 PP：中期趋势仍有压力 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 目前对市场压制较大的仍然是供应端偏高。不过需要注意近期成交情况略有好转，更多还是基于低价 因素的阶段性补库。需求端年内高峰期已经过去，后期市场的关键是未来需求的因素。从长期趋势看，成 本端压力、供应端偏高、下游低利润弱需求因素仍会是 2026 年上半年的主导性因素。当然 PP 低利润也对 供应端构成较大压力，同时也大大限制了市场未来下跌的想象空间。总之短期市场偏强，但趋势压力仍较 大。 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 6382 | -0.39% | 228,079 | -9112 | | | | 昨日价差 | | | 前日价差 | | 价 差 | 01合约基差 | -132 | | -160 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -96 | | -94 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 ...

商 品 研 2025 年 12 月 1 日 PP：短期反弹，中期趋势仍有压力 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 6409 | 1.91% | 424,635 | -50595 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 01合约基差 | -159 | | -25 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -81 | | -98 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6130 - | 6300 | 6170 - 6350 | | | | 华东 | 6250 - | 6400 | 6270 - 6450 | | | | 华南 | 6300 - | 6470 | 6360 - 6500 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 目前对市场压制 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market experienced a partial decline. The downward movement of the PP futures affected the sentiment of the spot market. Some petrochemical plants reduced their prices by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, weakening cost support. Sellers slightly adjusted their prices, and downstream factories mainly consumed their previous inventory, showing a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [2]. - Previously, factors such as the trade war, oil prices, high supply, and low profits of downstream processed products put downward pressure on the PP trend. Recently, the deterioration of US - Russia relations led to an oil price rebound, and the market generally expected the trade war to end. With a temporary reduction in PP supply and stable demand, a short - term market rebound is reasonable. In the long - term, the downward - driving factors cannot be fundamentally resolved, so the market may stop falling in the short - term but show a weakening trend in the medium - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PP Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was [not clearly presented], with a daily decline of 1.21%. The trading volume was 294,656, and the open interest changed by 11,355 [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the 01 contract was - 90 (unit not clear), compared with - 121 the day before. The spread between the 01 - 05 contracts was - 84, compared with - 70 (the - 882 seems to be an error) the day before [1]. - **Important Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the price was 6430 - 6520 yuan/ton yesterday, compared with 6450 - 6590 yuan/ton the day before; in the East China region, it was 6500 - 6620 yuan/ton, compared with 6530 - 6630 yuan/ton the day before; in the South China region, it was 6470 - 6630 yuan/ton, compared with 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton the day before [1]. 3.2 Spot News The PP market had a partial decline. The downward movement of PP futures affected the spot market sentiment. Some petrochemical plants reduced prices, weakening cost support. Sellers adjusted prices slightly, and downstream factories mainly consumed previous inventory and were cautious [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis Previously, multiple factors caused downward pressure on the PP trend. Recently, the oil price rebound and expected end of the trade war, along with short - term supply reduction and stable demand, led to a short - term rebound. In the long - term, the downward - driving factors remain, so the market may be weakening in the medium - term [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The PP trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2, 2] interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The domestic PP market showed partial loosening with a range of 20 - 30 yuan/ton. PP futures fluctuated, having limited guidance on the spot market. Most producer prices remained stable, with some slightly decreasing. Traders adjusted their quotes based on inventory and costs, and downstream demand was cautious after restocking at the beginning of the week, resulting in average morning trading [2]. - The PP trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]. 2. Key Data Futures - The closing price of PP2509 was 7075, with a daily decline of 0.13%. The trading volume was 156,261, and the open interest decreased by 5827 [1]. - The basis of the 09 contract was -75, compared to -8 the previous day. The spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was -31, compared to -42 the previous day [1]. Spot - In North China, the spot price ranged from 6920 - 7050 yuan/ton, compared to 7000 - 7120 yuan/ton the previous day. In East China, it was 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton, compared to 7070 - 7170 yuan/ton. In South China, it was 6950 - 7130 yuan/ton, compared to 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic PP market remains weak, with some grades declining by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. PP futures are running at a low level, intensifying the wait - and - see atmosphere in the spot market. The weakening cost support and low - running futures lead to lower offers from traders, and the overall market trading is flat. The PP trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7070 yesterday, down 0.59%. The trading volume was 218,846, and the open interest increased by 497. The 09 - contract basis was 0 (previous day: 17), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 58 (previous day: 62) [1]. - **Spot Price**: In North China, the spot price was 7060 - 7160 yuan/ton (previous day: 7070 - 7160); in East China, it was 7070 - 7250 yuan/ton (previous day: 7120 - 7250); in South China, it was 7120 - 7230 yuan/ton (previous day: 7140 - 7250) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The domestic PP market continued to be weak, with some grades dropping 10 - 50 yuan/ton. PP futures at a low level increased the wait - and - see mood. Lower prices from some enterprises weakened cost support, prompting traders to offer lower prices. The downstream new orders are limited, and procurement is cautious, resulting in flat trading [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is - 1, suggesting a bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being [-2, 2] [2].