Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall performance of A-share Q3 reports is good, providing bottom support for the market. However, the significant decline in external demand in October, which supported GDP in the first three quarters, is expected to drag down the Q4 economic fundamentals and have a certain negative impact on the stock market sentiment. Currently, after the disclosure of A-share Q3 reports and with no important domestic meetings scheduled within the month, the market is in a policy and performance vacuum period. In an environment lacking clear trading guidance, the market is expected to show a random walk, and stock index futures will maintain volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - **IF Contracts**: The latest price of the IF (2512) main contract is 4672.0, up 13.0 from the previous period; the IF (2511) sub - main contract is 4686.2, up 13.2. The IF - IH monthly contract spread is 1631.4, down 2.8; IF's quarterly - to - monthly spread for the current quarter is - 46.2, up 0.6, and for the next quarter is - 90.8, down 4.8. The net position of the top 20 in IF is - 26,057.00, down 1661.0 [2]. - **IH Contracts**: The latest price of the IH (2512) main contract is 3054.0, up 13.8; the IH (2511) sub - main contract is 3054.8, up 13.6. The IH quarterly - to - monthly spread for the current quarter is - 5.2, down 1.0, and for the next quarter is - 11.2, unchanged. The net position of the top 20 in IH is - 14,565.00, down 343.0 [2]. - **IC Contracts**: The latest price of the IC (2512) main contract is 7235.8, up 5.0; the IC (2511) sub - main contract is 7302.8, up 10.4. The IC - IF monthly contract spread is 2616.6, down 2.4; the IC - IH monthly contract spread is 4248.0, down 5.2. The IC quarterly - to - monthly spread for the current quarter is - 237.8, down 7.2, and for the next quarter is - 428, down 11.0. The net position of the top 20 in IC is - 21,784.00, down 2150.0 [2]. - **IM Contracts**: The latest price of the IM (2512) main contract is 7421.0, up 9.4; the IM (2511) sub - main contract is 7508.8, up 16.2. The IM - IC monthly contract spread is 206.0, up 4.6; the IM - IF monthly contract spread is 2822.6, up 2.2; the IM - IH monthly contract spread is 4454.0, down 0.6. The IM quarterly - to - monthly spread for the current quarter is - 309.6, down 7.2, and for the next quarter is - 524.6, down 6.2. 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Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for June and the second quarter suggests a low but stable growth trajectory, with GDP growth expected around 5.3% in Q2, supported by new domestic policies and resilient exports [2][4]. Group 1: GDP and Economic Growth - Q2 GDP growth is projected at approximately 5.3%, with industrial production growth expected at 5.9% due to equipment upgrades and resilient exports [4][11]. - Retail sector growth is anticipated to rebound, with wholesale and retail expected to grow by 6.8% in Q2, up from 5.8% in Q1 [4][11]. - High growth is expected in the information and leasing service sectors [4]. Group 2: Production Sector - June industrial production growth is expected to be around 6.0%, with a PMI production index increase to 51% [5][15]. - Truck traffic on highways shows a growth of 2.0% in June, improving from previous months [5][15]. - The automotive wholesale growth rate is projected at 14.1%, indicating strong performance in the automotive manufacturing sector [5][15]. Group 3: Demand Side - Retail sales growth is expected to temporarily decline to around 4.6% in June, influenced by holiday timing and promotional activities [6][20]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to decrease to approximately 3.4% for the first half of the year, with manufacturing investment at 8.1% and real estate investment at -11.2% [6][19]. - June export growth is expected to be around 3.5%, while imports are projected to grow by 1% [7][17]. Group 4: Financial Sector - New social financing in June is expected to reach 3.8 trillion, an increase of 600 billion compared to the previous year, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for social financing stock [8][21]. - M2 money supply is expected to grow by approximately 7.9% year-on-year, while M1 is projected to grow by 2.9% [8][21]. - Government and corporate bond issuance is expected to total around 1.8 trillion in June, with significant net financing increases compared to the previous year [8][21].