Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for June and the second quarter suggests a low but stable growth trajectory, with GDP growth expected around 5.3% in Q2, supported by new domestic policies and resilient exports [2][4]. Group 1: GDP and Economic Growth - Q2 GDP growth is projected at approximately 5.3%, with industrial production growth expected at 5.9% due to equipment upgrades and resilient exports [4][11]. - Retail sector growth is anticipated to rebound, with wholesale and retail expected to grow by 6.8% in Q2, up from 5.8% in Q1 [4][11]. - High growth is expected in the information and leasing service sectors [4]. Group 2: Production Sector - June industrial production growth is expected to be around 6.0%, with a PMI production index increase to 51% [5][15]. - Truck traffic on highways shows a growth of 2.0% in June, improving from previous months [5][15]. - The automotive wholesale growth rate is projected at 14.1%, indicating strong performance in the automotive manufacturing sector [5][15]. Group 3: Demand Side - Retail sales growth is expected to temporarily decline to around 4.6% in June, influenced by holiday timing and promotional activities [6][20]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to decrease to approximately 3.4% for the first half of the year, with manufacturing investment at 8.1% and real estate investment at -11.2% [6][19]. - June export growth is expected to be around 3.5%, while imports are projected to grow by 1% [7][17]. Group 4: Financial Sector - New social financing in June is expected to reach 3.8 trillion, an increase of 600 billion compared to the previous year, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for social financing stock [8][21]. - M2 money supply is expected to grow by approximately 7.9% year-on-year, while M1 is projected to grow by 2.9% [8][21]. - Government and corporate bond issuance is expected to total around 1.8 trillion in June, with significant net financing increases compared to the previous year [8][21].