Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the PTA futures market showed a strong sideways movement in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. The overall PTA operating rate remained low, and the domestic PTA supply continued to tighten. The demand side changed little, with the polyester operating rate remaining high, while the orders and operating rate of the weaving end decreased relatively. The PTA supply - demand remained in a tight pattern [2]. - Recently, the reduction in PTA supply has exceeded expectations, and the expected reduction in polyester operating rate has been postponed. After the cancellation of India's BIS certification, PTA exports are expected to increase. The sales of filament yarn have increased significantly, and inventory has been reduced to a low level. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of October has released positive news, which may drive some external demand orders. The PTA supply - demand expectation has been significantly repaired. Although the orders and operating rate of the weaving end have decreased relatively, the expected decline in the operating rate of the downstream of polyester yarn is limited. Overall, the tight supply - demand of PX and the relatively good short - term supply - demand structure of PTA support the PTA price [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The PTA futures market fluctuated strongly in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton this week. Two PTA plants increased their load last week, but the overall operating rate was still low. The domestic PTA supply continued to tighten. During the period, the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Honggang restarted, and the 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant of Zhongtai increased its load. The PTA load was adjusted to 73.7%, an increase of 2.7%. The demand side changed little, with the polyester operating rate remaining high, and the orders and operating rate of the weaving end decreasing relatively. The raw material PX supply was still tight, and the PXN was strong, but the crude oil trend weakened. The instability of crude oil led to insufficient motivation for PTA to follow the upward trend [2]. Key Concerns - Factors to be concerned about include polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trend [4]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | yuan/ton | 4,678.00 | 4,636.00 | 42.00 | 0.91% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 137.47 | 141.98 | - 4.51 | - 3.18% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 83.97 | 84.33 | - 0.36 | - 0.43% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 66.93 | 67.69 | - 0.76 | - 1.12% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 260 | 259 | 1.00 | 0.39% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | yuan/ton | 4,641 | 4,686 | - 45.00 | - 0.96% | Daily | [5] Other Data Analysis Sections (Mainly Graph - related) - **PX Market**: It includes the review of PX's futures closing price, ex - factory price in East China, prices in Taiwan, South Korea, the US Gulf, etc., as well as the analysis of PX supply such as output, import volume, operating rate, and inventory [7][14]. - **PTA Market**: It includes the review of PTA's futures closing price and mainstream price in East China, and the analysis of PTA supply (output, operating rate, inventory), consumption (export, production of polyester products), and cost - profit [19][21][25].

西南期货表示，短期PTA供需结构改善叠加成本预期转好，短期PTA价格或有小幅修复空间，考虑逢低 区间操作，注意控制风险。 长江期货指出，本周PTA低位反弹，一方面是基本面成本与供需利好支撑，另一方面宏观回暖与国内政 策支持，短期PTA价格低位反弹，现货基差走强。但目前中长期风险仍存，原油方面地缘政治影响减 弱，需求增速放缓预期下，价格承压；PX-PTA装置方面在下旬重启较多，春检结束后，市场供应恢 复；下游聚酯产销短期回升，但仅为聚酯工厂集中出货，而从终端反应上来看，企业对后市并不看好， 秋冬新订单有限，产品及原料库存增加；若后世6-7月份淡季来临届时自下而上的负反馈，会导致PTA 面临供需转弱风险。预期PTA市场价格短期处于偏强反弹态势，但其上方空间有限，预计在4200-4600 区间震荡，且在5月底6月时存在转弱预期。 5月9日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，PTA期货主力合约开盘报4570.00元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，PTA主力最高触及4588.00元，下方探低4546.00元，涨幅达1.74%附近。 目前来看，PTA行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于PTA后市行情将如何运行， ...