Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows mixed performance, with PTA futures exhibiting a strong upward trend, reflecting supply adjustments and demand dynamics in the polyester sector [1] Supply Side - Southwest Futures reports that Yintou's 1 million tons facility is scheduled for maintenance, while Zhongtai has reduced its output to 90%, leading to a PTA operating rate adjustment to 75.7% by Thursday [1] - Honggang Petrochemical plans maintenance from November 17 to November 25, and Yisheng (Ningbo) is currently operating at 90% capacity with maintenance scheduled for later in the month [1] Demand Side - Wukuang Futures indicates that the inventory and profit pressure for polyester fibers are relatively low, suggesting that operating rates may remain high; however, due to inventory pressure and the off-season for downstream bottle-grade PET, further increases in polyester operating rates are unlikely [1] Inventory Levels - According to Ruida Futures, the current PTA factory inventory stands at 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days from last week but a decrease of 0.29 days compared to the same period last year; polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 6.1 days, down 0.35 days week-on-week and down 2.25 days year-on-year [1] Overall Market Outlook - Zhonghui Futures notes that the low PTA processing fee may lead to increased maintenance efforts in the future, potentially alleviating supply-side pressures; downstream demand remains relatively strong with high operating rates in polyester and weaving, although order stability is still in question [1] - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November and December, with limited upward driving forces in the short term due to low processing fees, suggesting a focus on expanding processing fee price differentials [1]

Market Overview - On October 27, PTA futures surged significantly after news from an industry seminar, with the spot market showing a general trading atmosphere and spot basis stabilizing. This week, transactions occurred at a discount of 80-82 for the January contract, with price discussions ranging between 4440-4565 [1] - The main spot basis is at 01-81 [1] Profitability - As of October 27, the PTA spot processing fee is around 112 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 contracts are 259 CNY/ton and 276 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 24, PTA operating rates reached 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. A new 3 million ton PTA facility in East China began production last weekend and has started output [3] - Demand: As of October 24, polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 27, the price of polyester filament saw slight increases, with overall production and sales being weak over the weekend but acceptable on Monday. The terminal sales atmosphere is relatively good, and after last week's downstream restocking, filament factory inventories are at a relatively low level, indicating potential price support. News of PTA's anti-internal competition has driven raw material prices, leading to some downstream replenishment, with expectations that filament prices may rise [3] Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA facility operating rates and the commissioning of new facilities, the overall spot basis for PTA is weak. Despite continuous compression of PTA processing fees and a significant boost in futures prices due to industry seminar news, the rebound potential for PTA is limited until substantial policies are implemented and given the weak supply-demand expectations for crude oil [4] - The strategy suggests monitoring pressure above 4600 for long positions and considering reducing positions on rallies; a rolling hedge strategy is recommended for TA1-5 [4]

Market Overview - On October 20, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a downward trend, with a general atmosphere in the spot market being average. The trading range for spot prices expanded, primarily driven by traders, with sporadic offers from polyester factories. October cargo was traded at a discount of 80-90, with prices in the range of 4295-4340. November cargo was traded at a discount of 70, and late November at a discount of 65. Warehouse receipts were traded around a discount of 50, with the mainstream spot basis at a discount of 85 [1]. Profitability - As of October 20, the PTA spot processing fee was around 120 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures were 253 yuan/ton and 278 yuan/ton, respectively [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, PTA operating rates were at 76%, an increase of 0.6%. - Demand: Polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 20, the price of polyester filament saw a slight decline, with overall production and sales being average. The significant drop in oil prices was influenced by Trump's tariff policies, leading some filament factories to lower prices or increase discounts. Downstream knitting operations were performing reasonably well, with some downstream buyers purchasing raw materials as needed. Currently, POY has some profitability, while FDY fine denier remains at a loss. With factory inventories continuing to rise, filament prices are expected to follow the downward trend of raw materials [3]. Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA plant operating rates and news of new installations coming online, the PTA spot basis has weakened significantly. However, as the basis approaches a no-risk arbitrage level and some major PTA suppliers reduce their operating rates, the downward space for the basis is limited. In terms of absolute prices, the weak supply and demand expectations for crude oil limit price drivers, along with the negative impact of fluctuating tariff policies. Therefore, short-term PTA price movements are expected to remain weak and fluctuate. The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach, with attention on Brent crude oil support around 60 USD/barrel; a rolling reverse spread strategy is recommended [4].

Market Overview - On October 13, the PTA futures market experienced slight fluctuations with a minor decline, while the spot market showed weak trading sentiment and a weakening basis [1] - The market is anticipating the commissioning of a new 3 million-ton PTA facility by Dushan Energy in October, although the exact timeline remains uncertain [1] Profitability - As of October 13, the PTA spot processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton, with processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures at 280 yuan/ton and 298 yuan/ton respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 10, Yisheng New Materials has reduced production, and Hengli has halted 2.2 million tons, leading to a PTA operating rate of 75.4%, a decrease of 1.4% [3] - Demand: The polyester operating rate has slightly increased to 91.4%, up by 1.1%. The operating rates for various segments are as follows: texturing at 81% (no change), weaving at 69% (down by 1%), and dyeing at 78% (up by 2%) [3] - The weaving sector shows a mixed atmosphere, with knitting experiencing a structural peak while woven spraying remains sluggish, leading to rising local inventories [3] Market Outlook - Due to persistently low PTA processing fees and expectations of multiple PTA maintenance schedules, the market outlook remains cautious. Despite high downstream operating levels, the weak supply-demand balance limits basis recovery [4] - Absolute prices are expected to remain under pressure due to weak oil supply-demand expectations and fluctuating tariff policies, suggesting a potential short-term decline in PTA prices [4] - The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach for TA, with a focus on potential short-selling opportunities [4]

Summary of PTA Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) industry has experienced a significant price decline in 2025, with an average price of 4,800 RMB/ton from January to September, down 14.4% year-on-year [1][4][9] - The price fluctuation range has narrowed, primarily influenced by tariff policies and crude oil price volatility [1][4] - PTA production increased by 3.3% year-on-year to 54.6 million tons, while the operating rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 77.5% due to unexpected maintenance [1][7][6] Key Points and Arguments Price Dynamics - PTA prices fluctuated between 4,000 and 5,000 RMB/ton, with significant price drops in April due to tariff impacts and crude oil price declines [4][9] - The processing fee for PTA has been low, with a sharp decline from July, averaging 161 RMB in September [5][8] Supply and Demand Factors - The processing fee decline is attributed to a 15% drop in crude oil prices and a 28% compression in PX (Paraxylene) processing efficiency [5][8] - The industry faced supply pressure due to reduced procurement from Turkey, which cut Chinese purchases by 300,000 tons [1][7] - The demand from end-manufacturing and texturing machines decreased by 7-8%, leading to weakened market sentiment [1][10] Tariff Policy Impact - Tariff increases starting in February led to a significant market slowdown, with exports halting temporarily until adjustments were made in May [9][10] - The tariffs created a waiting period during what should have been a peak season, affecting overall market dynamics [9] Future Outlook - The PTA industry is expected to continue facing challenges, but there are opportunities for recovery as PX production is anticipated to alleviate some pressure on PTA profitability in the next five years [18][20] - The PTA inventory-to-sales ratio has been declining since 2020, currently at a historically low level, indicating potential for continued destocking and market recovery [22] Export Opportunities and Challenges - India presents a significant export opportunity as it is the largest PTA demand country outside of China, with new production facilities expected to impact Chinese exports [21] - However, challenges arise from the expansion of overseas PTA facilities, particularly in Turkey and India, which could affect market dynamics [21][25] Industry Performance and Collaboration - Major PTA companies currently lack a unified collaboration plan, with varying operational statuses and maintenance schedules [23][31] - The overall operational load for the PTA industry is approximately 77.77%, with potential for slight increases unless affected by maintenance [31] Additional Insights - Short fiber enterprises are performing relatively well, maintaining processing fees around 1,000 RMB, but their market influence is limited due to their smaller share of the polyester capacity [12] - The expansion of bottle chip capacity has led to increased inventory pressure, prompting factories to reduce production [11] - The market environment is characterized by low processing fees, leading to planned maintenance and reductions in non-integrated enterprises [16] This summary encapsulates the key insights and dynamics of the PTA industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both current challenges and future opportunities.

Group 1 - PTA futures have significantly declined, with the main contract reported at 4656.00 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.06% [1] - As of September 3, 2025, the average processing range for PTA in China is 189.82 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 21.32% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.68% [2] - The current PTA production capacity utilization rate is 70.86%, down 5.36% from the previous week, with domestic PTA output at 1.3129 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous week [3] Group 2 - According to Nanhua Futures, the overall sentiment in commodities is weak, with high oil prices retreating and PX-TA prices following suit. The structural contradictions between PX and TA are expected to dominate the market, maintaining a "tight up and loose down" pattern [4] - Hualian Futures notes that supply pressure has eased due to significant maintenance at large facilities in South and East China, while polyester operating rates remain stable. However, the replenishment of polyester filament shows moderate performance, focusing on consuming existing raw material inventories [4]

Supply and Demand - As of August 29, PTA operating rate is at 70.4%, a decrease of 2.5% [3] - As of August 29, polyester operating rate has increased to 90.3%, an increase of 0.3% [3] - Downstream polyester production has seen a decline due to lack of orders and high temperatures, with inventory levels being acceptable but overall stock being high [3] Price and Profitability - On September 1, PTA spot processing fee is around 170 CNY/ton, while TA2511 and TA2601 futures processing fees are 317 CNY/ton and 313 CNY/ton respectively [2] - The main spot trading range is between 4710 and 4735 CNY, with some transactions at a basis of 40 to 48 [1] Market Outlook - The low processing margin has led to increased unplanned maintenance of PTA facilities in August and September, improving supply-demand expectations, although the execution of maintenance is not meeting expectations [4] - There is still a demand expectation for September and October, with polyester and terminal loads recovering compared to previous periods, providing some support to demand [4] - Short-term strategies suggest focusing on support around 4700 CNY, with a short-term bullish outlook [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pricing logic is still cost - driven. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2] - The terminal demand is still weakly recovering, but the downstream bullish expectation is rising. The polyester inventory is shifting downward, and the PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On August 27, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $64.15 per barrel, up 1.42% from the previous value; that of Brent crude oil was $68.05 per barrel, up 1.23% [1] - **Upstream Products**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha: CFR Japan on August 27, 2025, was $590.38 per ton, down 1.60%. The spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade): FOB South Korea on August 26, 2025, was $694.50 per ton, up 0.58% [1] - **PX**: The spot price of p - xylene PX: CFR China's main port on August 27, 2025, was $854 per ton, down 1.16%. The CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6940 yuan per ton, down 0.77% [1] - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main contract closing price on August 27, 2025, was 4824 yuan per ton, down 0.94%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4877 yuan per ton, up 0.06% [1] - **PR**: The CZCE PR main contract closing price on August 27, 2025, was 5994 yuan per ton, down 0.66%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5920 yuan per ton, down 0.50% [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on August 27, 2025, was 6580 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5930 yuan per ton, down 0.50% [2] Spread Information - The PXN spread on August 27, 2025, was $263.63 per ton, down 0.14%. The PX - MX spread was $159.50 per ton, down 8.07% [1] - The basis of PTA on August 27, 2025, was 13 yuan per ton, up 18 yuan from the previous value. The basis of PX was - 97 yuan per ton, up 54 yuan [1] - The basis of PR in the East China market on August 27, 2025, was - 74 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan. The basis in the South China market was - 4 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan [1] Operating Rate and Sales - to - Production Ratio - The operating rate of the polyester industry chain: PX on August 27, 2025, was 80.38%, unchanged. The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 72.16%, unchanged [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament on August 27, 2025, was 40.00%, down 10.15 percentage points. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber was 39.12%, down 1.90 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2] Important Information - After the US imposed a 50% tax rate on India, the market was bearish on crude oil demand. The API inventory data showed that US crude oil stocks increased more than expected, and the lower - than - expected demand pressured oil prices to give back previous gains [2] - The domestic device changes were small, mainly with an increase in load fluctuations. Overseas, the load increase was relatively obvious, mainly due to the restart of Rabigh and Thai Petroleum devices [2] - The current PX inventory is at a historical low, so the bottom support is relatively stable. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise depends on whether there are more unexpected factors [2]

Supply and Demand - As of August 14, PTA operating rates are at 76.4%, an increase of 1.7% due to the restart of facilities from Weilian Chemical (2.5 million tons) and Jiaxing Petrochemical (2.2 million tons) [3] - Polyester operating rates have slightly increased to 89.4%, up by 0.6%, with local improvements in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regarding terminal operating rates and shipment volumes [3] - New orders for grey fabric show mixed results, with some local "hot-selling" products performing well, while overall procurement remains average [3] Pricing and Profitability - On August 14, PTA spot processing fees are around 212 RMB/ton, with processing fees for TA2509 and TA2601 futures at 258 RMB/ton and 331 RMB/ton respectively [2] - The spot market for PTA is experiencing a general trading atmosphere, with prices ranging from 4620 to 4680 RMB, and a main spot basis around 09-14 [1][4] Market Outlook - The PTA supply-demand situation is expected to improve due to increased maintenance plans amid low processing margins, but medium-term expectations remain weak with the new PTA facility from Helen Petrochemical coming online [4] - Overall, PTA prices are anticipated to remain weak due to supply-demand concerns and crude oil trends, although the low processing fees and limited pressure from raw material PX may limit downward movement [4] - Strategies include monitoring support around 4600 RMB for TA01 and considering high-level hedging for TA1-5, while focusing on expanding low processing fees around 250 RMB [4]

Supply and Demand - As of August 7, PTA supply has improved with the restart of 150,000 tons and 120,000 tons facilities by Taiwan Chemical, while Jiaxing Petrochemical's 220 tons facility is under scheduled maintenance. Yisheng Materials' 720,000 tons facility has restored its load, and INEOS's 235,000 tons facility is operating at reduced capacity. Overall, PTA load has recovered to 76.2%, an increase of 3.6% [3] - On the demand side, new facilities that started at the end of July and previously shut down facilities have increased production. Additionally, some factories in long and short fiber sectors have slightly increased their load, with polyester's overall load rising to approximately 88.8%, an increase of 0.7%. However, the order atmosphere for grey cloth remains weak, and the market's inventory turnover is slow, limiting overall operating rates [3] Profitability - As of August 7, PTA's spot processing fee is around 166 yuan per ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures is 263 yuan per ton [2] Market Outlook - Despite a recent improvement in PTA supply and demand in August, the outlook remains weak due to the commissioning of new PTA facilities by Hailun Petrochemical and a continued weak order situation at the terminal. The PTA basis is expected to operate weakly. Overall, with a weak supply-demand outlook and limited support from crude oil, the rebound potential for PTA is insufficient. However, there is still some short-term support due to the overall improvement in domestic commodity sentiment and low PTA processing fees [4] - The strategy suggests a short-term trading range for TA between 4600-4800, with a recommendation for TA1-5 to hedge against high prices and to expand PTA processing fees at low levels around 250 [4]