【现货方面】 8月14日，PTA期货跟随成本端逐步走低，现货市场商谈氛围一般，聚酯工厂买盘为主，现货基差分 化。9月贸易商商谈增多。8月货在09贴水10~20附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4620~4680附近。9月中 在09+0附近，9月底在09+5有成交。主流现货基差在09-14。 【利润方面】 8月14日，PTA现货加工费至212元/吨附近，TA2509盘面加工费258元/吨，TA2601盘面加工费331元/ 吨。 【供需方面】 供应：截至8月14日，台化150万吨、逸盛225万吨装置停车，威联化学250万吨、嘉兴石化220万吨装置 重启，PTA负荷至76.4%（+1.7%）。 【行情展望】 持续低加工差下，8月PTA装置检修计划增加，PTA供需较预期好转，但随着海伦石化PTA新装置投料， 中期PTA供需预期偏弱，PTA基差偏弱运行。整体看，在供需偏弱预期，以及原油走势情况下，PTA震 荡偏弱，不过因PTA加工费偏低且原料PX供需压力不大，且金九银十旺季预期下，PTA向下空间不大。 策略上，TA01关注4600附近支撑；TA1-5逢高反套对待；PTA盘面加工费低位做扩为主（250附近）。 免责声明：本报告 ...

Supply and Demand - As of July 18, PTA operating rates remain stable at 79.7% with no significant changes in production [3] - Polyester operating rates have slightly decreased to approximately 88.3%, down by 0.5% [3] - Demand for polyester continues to be weak due to the off-season and high temperatures, leading to increased inventory pressure in factories [3] - The cash flow for polyester yarn is limited, with only POY showing slight profitability while FDY is experiencing overall losses [3] Market Outlook - PTA operating rates are maintained around 80%, with expectations for new PTA production from Sanfangxiang (600370) [4] - Weak terminal demand is leading to further expectations of production cuts in downstream polyester [4] - Despite weak supply and demand expectations for PTA, the overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market is relatively strong, providing some support for PTA prices [4] - Short-term trading strategy for TA is expected to fluctuate between 4600-4800, with bearish sentiment above 4800 [4] Cost Analysis - As of July 21, PTA spot processing fees are around 239 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 is 285 CNY/ton [2]

Market Overview - The PTA spot market showed improved trading sentiment compared to the previous day, with increased bids from polyester factories and a continued weak basis, leading to an expanded decline in the afternoon [1] - Main suppliers reported sales, with transactions this week and next week in the range of 4780 to 4820 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot basis is at 09+91 [1] - As of July 8, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had 45,812 PTA futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 9,384 from the previous trading day [1] Inventory and Supply Chain - This week, PTA factory inventory stands at 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days from last week and 0.29 days from the same period last year [1] - Polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 7.1 days, down 0.35 days from last week and 1.08 days from the same period last year [1] Institutional Insights - Donghai Futures noted that while the PTA basis continues to weaken, there has been a partial recovery in transactions, with liquidity issues easing significantly [2] - The port inventory has increased, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts and increased factory stocking, the upward impact of spot prices on the futures market has become limited [2] - Dadi Futures indicated that the polyester industry chain remains stable upstream, while expectations of declining downstream loads suggest profits will further shift downstream [2] - The oil price remains strong, and with downstream production cuts, the strategy of shorting PX/PTA based on Brent price differentials continues, although the potential for significant movement is limited [2] - As the peak season approaches in late August, there may be opportunities for PTA large manufacturers to adjust loads to expand profits, with current PTA processing fees being neutral [2]

| 芳烃橡胶早报 | 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/02 | P T A | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | POY 1 | PTA平衡 | PX CFR PTA内盘现 | PTA负 | PTA加 | 石脑油 | 0年+有 | 白胸准裂 | PX加工美 | 日期 | 50D/4 | 原油 | TA基美 ...

Group 1 - PTA prices have slightly decreased since mid-May due to weakening fundamentals, characterized by supply recovery and reduced downstream polyester production [2] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant increase in international oil prices, with risks of losing 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian oil supply [3] - The supply side of PTA has seen a notable recovery in operating rates, reaching approximately 83% as of June 13, indicating a clear trend of increasing supply [4] Group 2 - Demand for PTA is currently weak, with polyester production rates declining to around 90.9%, primarily due to reduced output in bottle-grade and short-fiber segments [4] - The weaving sector is also facing challenges, with weaving operating rates dropping to 68% and texturing rates to 80%, as companies deal with high raw material costs and sluggish sales [4] - Overall, while oil prices are strong and may push PTA prices up, the weakening fundamentals suggest limited price increases, with a potential shift from inventory depletion to accumulation [5]

消息面 后市来看，根据供需平衡表来看，PTA 5-6月仍面临检修及去库带来的供需强现实，受成本推升、出口 备货增加以及终端需求改善的影响，短期PTA在成本支撑及去库格局下，期价震荡偏强。但中期来看， PTA盘面加工费修复之后，6-7月装置检修落实执行情况或不及预期。PTA新产能投放远期供应偏宽松预 期。随着中国对美抢出口预期在6月下旬逐步收尾以及内销淡季来临，前期聚酯高开工带来的高库存压 力增加，下游工厂三季度减产确定性较大，聚酯减产及新产能投放带来的供应增量将压制PTA期价反弹 空间。 华联期货： 供应端上周中泰化学（002092）重启，嘉通2#线临近周末检修，产量小幅增加。预计本周四川能投等装 置重启，供应仍有延续小幅增加预期。需求端聚酯开工持稳，终端织造开工率维持。据隆众，前期关税 利好释放完毕，目前外贸订单气氛略有下降。PTA行业库存延续去库趋势，产品长丝库存低位反弹。原 油震荡，PX基本面较好，TA估值驱动中性稍多。总体看PTA基本面尚可，技术面震荡偏强，激进型投 资者可维持低多交易，2509合约区间参考4680-4900。 上一交易日，PTA现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。5月主港在09+15 ...