Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The V2605 contract rose 1.55% to close at 4,781 yuan/ton. Last week, the 400,000 - ton units of Yibin Tianyuan and Hanwha Ningbo were shut down, and the 300,000 - ton unit of Zhenyang Development restarted, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The national average cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profit was repaired. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased, and the social inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in the same period of history. This week, the 400,000 - ton unit of Yibin Tianyuan will restart, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. In December, a small number of unit commissioning was postponed, the high - start state of the industry was generally maintained, and the supply pressure was high. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the off - season, and the start - up rate of hard products such as pipes and profiles may maintain a seasonal downward trend. The global PVC supply is sufficient, the overseas market competition is fierce, and the export boost is limited. The short - term is expected to show a volatile trend. Technically, V2605 should pay attention to the previous low support around 4,470 and the pressure around 4,860 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,781 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; the trading volume was 1,135,087 lots, down 739,359 lots; the open interest was 973,277 lots, up 8,434 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures was 939,477 lots, down 17,700 lots; the short position was 1,010,119 lots, down 12,369 lots; the net long position was - 70,642 lots, down 5,331 lots [2] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,445.77 yuan/ton, up 78.08 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,467.5 yuan/ton, up 37.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC was - 252 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China was 2,615 yuan/ton, down 41.67 yuan, and in Northwest China was 2,425 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 75 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 407 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 448 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 194 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.36%, down 1.07%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.74%, down 1.92%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 76.54%, down 2.36%. The total social inventory of PVC was 51.06 tons, down 0.68 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 46.83 tons, down 0.42 tons, and in the South China region was 4.23 tons, down 0.26 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.9, down 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 53,456.7 million square meters, up 4,395.31 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 656,066.2 million square meters, up 3,127.17 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 420.2457 billion yuan, up 30.416 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 21.59%, up 3.61%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.67%, up 2.28%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.64%, up 1.42%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.63%, up 1.41% [2] Industry News - From December 13th to 19th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07%. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.5% to 45.39%, among which the pipe operating rate remained stable at 37.6%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 3.7% to 31.43%. As of December 18th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% to 1.0566 million tons compared with last week [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC V2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 4,541 yuan/ton last week. The capacity utilization rate of PVC increased, with the downstream开工率 rising due to the increase in soft product开工率, while the开工 rates of pipes and profiles decreased. Social inventory accumulated slightly at a high level. The cost of the calcium carbide process increased and losses deepened, while the cost of the ethylene process decreased and profits slightly recovered. This week, the 300,000 - ton Shandong Hengtong device restarted, and the PVC capacity utilization rate still has an upward trend. In December, there are few PVC maintenance plans, and the high - operation state is expected to continue. With the temperature drop, the terminal demand of infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream开工率 of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. The termination of India's BIS policy and anti - dumping tax policy on imported PVC still leaves overseas demand, but it has limited effect on alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction. The upstream price of the calcium carbide process remains strong, and there is still support at the cost end. Recently, affected by the cost - side benefits and the exit of short - covering positions, the PVC market rebounded. However, the rebound space is relatively limited under the background of high PVC operation and weak demand. Technically, the daily K - line of V2601 should focus on the support around 4,510 and the pressure around 4,600 [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC was 4,541 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; the trading volume was 589,135 lots, an increase of 40,154 lots; the open interest was 1,021,344 lots, a decrease of 2,694 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the buy order volume was 1,076,044 lots, an increase of 11,578 lots; the sell order volume was 1,196,722 lots, an increase of 10,079 lots; and the net buy order volume was - 120,678 lots, an increase of 1,499 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,523.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,548.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region was 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northern China region, it was 2,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northwestern China region, it was 2,559 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 438 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 38 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 498 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 173 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 178 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly开工率 of PVC was 80.22%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of calcium carbide - based PVC was 83.61%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of ethylene - based PVC was 72.38%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 527,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons; the total inventory in the East China region was 481,300 tons, an increase of 800 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 46,600 tons, an increase of 400 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.43, a decrease of 0.35. The cumulative value of newly started housing area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 652,939.03 million square meters, an increase of 4,359.03 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment completed was 3,898.297 billion yuan, an increase of 311.91 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.17%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.21%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.91%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.91%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - From November 22nd to 28th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.22%, a month - on - month increase of 1.39%. The downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 0.42 percentage points month - on - month to 49.61%, among which the pipe开工率 decreased by 1.4 percentage points month - on - month to 38.8%, and the profile开工率 increased by 0.21 percentage points month - on - month to 36.09%. As of November 27th, the social inventory of PVC increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 1.0428 million tons. From November 22nd to 28th, the average national cost of the calcium carbide process increased to 5,131 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5,187 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide process decreased to - 881 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process increased to - 465 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From October 25th to 31st, PVC capacity utilization increased, downstream pipe and profile开工率 increased slightly, inventory changed little, and the high - level inventory accumulation trend slowed down. - The cost of the calcium carbide method increased and losses deepened, while the cost of the ethylene method decreased and profits were repaired. - The high - operation state of PVC may continue during the winter, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. - With the arrival of winter, the downstream开工率 of PVC is expected to decline seasonally, overseas demand is uncertain, and the contradiction between domestic supply and demand is significant, with high inventory pressure likely to persist. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4638 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4638 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the trading volume was 768,285 lots, an increase of 119,079 lots; the open interest was 1,282,294 lots, an increase of 38,511 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 174,380 lots, a decrease of 18,479 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,603.08 yuan/ton, down 3.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,678.75 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 98 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions was 2,800 yuan/ton, 2,690 yuan/ton, and 2,530 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia was 488 US dollars/ton and 518 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia was 179 US dollars/ton and 184 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly开工率 of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69%. The开工率 of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05%; the开工率 of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons. The total inventory in the East China region was 495,300 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 49,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.45%, down 0.42%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.36%, an increase of 0.1%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options was 13.69%, down 0.88% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. The downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, among which the pipe开工率 increased by 0.8% to 42%, and the profile开工率 increased by 1.96% to 37.83%. - As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons month - on - month, and increased by 25.09% year - on - year. - From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5,201 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene method decreased to 5,288 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3].