降趋势。全球PVC供应充足、海外市场竞争激烈，出口提振有限。PVC现实端供需偏弱与预期端"反内卷" 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 支撑博弈，短期预计震荡走势。技术上，V2605关注4470附近前低支撑与4860附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4781 | 43 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1135087 | -739359 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC) ...

免责声明 ，反弹空间相对受限。技术上，V2601日度K线关注4510附近支撑与4600附近压力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 分瑞达期货 | | --- | | RUIDA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | PVC产业日报 2025-12-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4541 | -34 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 589135 | 40154 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1021344 | -2694 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1076044 | 11578 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1196722 | 10079 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -120678 | 1499 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From October 25th to 31st, PVC capacity utilization increased, downstream pipe and profile开工率 increased slightly, inventory changed little, and the high - level inventory accumulation trend slowed down. - The cost of the calcium carbide method increased and losses deepened, while the cost of the ethylene method decreased and profits were repaired. - The high - operation state of PVC may continue during the winter, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. - With the arrival of winter, the downstream开工率 of PVC is expected to decline seasonally, overseas demand is uncertain, and the contradiction between domestic supply and demand is significant, with high inventory pressure likely to persist. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4638 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4638 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the trading volume was 768,285 lots, an increase of 119,079 lots; the open interest was 1,282,294 lots, an increase of 38,511 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 174,380 lots, a decrease of 18,479 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,603.08 yuan/ton, down 3.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,678.75 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 98 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions was 2,800 yuan/ton, 2,690 yuan/ton, and 2,530 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia was 488 US dollars/ton and 518 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia was 179 US dollars/ton and 184 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly开工率 of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69%. The开工率 of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05%; the开工率 of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons. The total inventory in the East China region was 495,300 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 49,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.45%, down 0.42%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.36%, an increase of 0.1%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options was 13.69%, down 0.88% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. The downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, among which the pipe开工率 increased by 0.8% to 42%, and the profile开工率 increased by 1.96% to 37.83%. - As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons month - on - month, and increased by 25.09% year - on - year. - From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5,201 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene method decreased to 5,288 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3].