Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The V2605 contract rose 1.55% to close at 4,781 yuan/ton. Last week, the 400,000 - ton units of Yibin Tianyuan and Hanwha Ningbo were shut down, and the 300,000 - ton unit of Zhenyang Development restarted, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The national average cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profit was repaired. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased, and the social inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in the same period of history. This week, the 400,000 - ton unit of Yibin Tianyuan will restart, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. In December, a small number of unit commissioning was postponed, the high - start state of the industry was generally maintained, and the supply pressure was high. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the off - season, and the start - up rate of hard products such as pipes and profiles may maintain a seasonal downward trend. The global PVC supply is sufficient, the overseas market competition is fierce, and the export boost is limited. The short - term is expected to show a volatile trend. Technically, V2605 should pay attention to the previous low support around 4,470 and the pressure around 4,860 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,781 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; the trading volume was 1,135,087 lots, down 739,359 lots; the open interest was 973,277 lots, up 8,434 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures was 939,477 lots, down 17,700 lots; the short position was 1,010,119 lots, down 12,369 lots; the net long position was - 70,642 lots, down 5,331 lots [2] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,445.77 yuan/ton, up 78.08 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,467.5 yuan/ton, up 37.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC was - 252 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China was 2,615 yuan/ton, down 41.67 yuan, and in Northwest China was 2,425 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 75 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 407 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 448 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 194 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.36%, down 1.07%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.74%, down 1.92%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 76.54%, down 2.36%. The total social inventory of PVC was 51.06 tons, down 0.68 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 46.83 tons, down 0.42 tons, and in the South China region was 4.23 tons, down 0.26 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.9, down 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 53,456.7 million square meters, up 4,395.31 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 656,066.2 million square meters, up 3,127.17 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 420.2457 billion yuan, up 30.416 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 21.59%, up 3.61%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.67%, up 2.28%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.64%, up 1.42%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.63%, up 1.41% [2] Industry News - From December 13th to 19th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07%. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.5% to 45.39%, among which the pipe operating rate remained stable at 37.6%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 3.7% to 31.43%. As of December 18th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% to 1.0566 million tons compared with last week [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC V2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 4,541 yuan/ton last week. The capacity utilization rate of PVC increased, with the downstream开工率 rising due to the increase in soft product开工率, while the开工 rates of pipes and profiles decreased. Social inventory accumulated slightly at a high level. The cost of the calcium carbide process increased and losses deepened, while the cost of the ethylene process decreased and profits slightly recovered. This week, the 300,000 - ton Shandong Hengtong device restarted, and the PVC capacity utilization rate still has an upward trend. In December, there are few PVC maintenance plans, and the high - operation state is expected to continue. With the temperature drop, the terminal demand of infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream开工率 of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. The termination of India's BIS policy and anti - dumping tax policy on imported PVC still leaves overseas demand, but it has limited effect on alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction. The upstream price of the calcium carbide process remains strong, and there is still support at the cost end. Recently, affected by the cost - side benefits and the exit of short - covering positions, the PVC market rebounded. However, the rebound space is relatively limited under the background of high PVC operation and weak demand. Technically, the daily K - line of V2601 should focus on the support around 4,510 and the pressure around 4,600 [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC was 4,541 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; the trading volume was 589,135 lots, an increase of 40,154 lots; the open interest was 1,021,344 lots, a decrease of 2,694 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the buy order volume was 1,076,044 lots, an increase of 11,578 lots; the sell order volume was 1,196,722 lots, an increase of 10,079 lots; and the net buy order volume was - 120,678 lots, an increase of 1,499 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,523.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,548.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region was 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northern China region, it was 2,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northwestern China region, it was 2,559 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 438 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 38 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 498 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 173 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 178 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly开工率 of PVC was 80.22%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of calcium carbide - based PVC was 83.61%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of ethylene - based PVC was 72.38%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 527,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons; the total inventory in the East China region was 481,300 tons, an increase of 800 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 46,600 tons, an increase of 400 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.43, a decrease of 0.35. The cumulative value of newly started housing area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 652,939.03 million square meters, an increase of 4,359.03 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment completed was 3,898.297 billion yuan, an increase of 311.91 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.17%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.21%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.91%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.91%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - From November 22nd to 28th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.22%, a month - on - month increase of 1.39%. The downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 0.42 percentage points month - on - month to 49.61%, among which the pipe开工率 decreased by 1.4 percentage points month - on - month to 38.8%, and the profile开工率 increased by 0.21 percentage points month - on - month to 36.09%. As of November 27th, the social inventory of PVC increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 1.0428 million tons. From November 22nd to 28th, the average national cost of the calcium carbide process increased to 5,131 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5,187 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide process decreased to - 881 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process increased to - 465 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From October 25th to 31st, PVC capacity utilization increased, downstream pipe and profile开工率 increased slightly, inventory changed little, and the high - level inventory accumulation trend slowed down. - The cost of the calcium carbide method increased and losses deepened, while the cost of the ethylene method decreased and profits were repaired. - The high - operation state of PVC may continue during the winter, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. - With the arrival of winter, the downstream开工率 of PVC is expected to decline seasonally, overseas demand is uncertain, and the contradiction between domestic supply and demand is significant, with high inventory pressure likely to persist. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4638 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4638 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the trading volume was 768,285 lots, an increase of 119,079 lots; the open interest was 1,282,294 lots, an increase of 38,511 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 174,380 lots, a decrease of 18,479 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,603.08 yuan/ton, down 3.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,678.75 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 98 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions was 2,800 yuan/ton, 2,690 yuan/ton, and 2,530 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia was 488 US dollars/ton and 518 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia was 179 US dollars/ton and 184 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly开工率 of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69%. The开工率 of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05%; the开工率 of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons. The total inventory in the East China region was 495,300 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 49,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.45%, down 0.42%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.36%, an increase of 0.1%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options was 13.69%, down 0.88% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. The downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, among which the pipe开工率 increased by 0.8% to 42%, and the profile开工率 increased by 1.96% to 37.83%. - As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons month - on - month, and increased by 25.09% year - on - year. - From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5,201 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene method decreased to 5,288 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3].

Core Viewpoint - PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% to 811,400 tons as of August 14, while it decreased by 12.72% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Inventory Analysis - East China region inventory reached 744,400 tons, up 5.12% month-on-month and down 16.04% year-on-year [1] - South China region inventory stood at 67,000 tons, down 1.57% month-on-month and up 55.88% year-on-year [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - V2509 oscillated and declined, closing at 5,151 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 0.62% week-on-week to 77.59%. The downstream start - up rate decreased by 1% week - on - week to 40.11%, with the pipe start - up rate down 3.92% week - on - week to 33.75% and the profile start - up rate stable at 34.5%. The PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 65.73 million tons. In July, domestic PVC maintenance was gradually implemented. With the restart of previously shut - down devices, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to rise week - on - week. New devices of Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Dagu are expected to be put into production this week, increasing the medium - and long - term supply pressure. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide maintenance devices will restart this week, increasing the commodity volume and pressuring calcium carbide prices; the ethylene market has sufficient available resources, and prices are expected to be weakly stable. The market sentiment for the previous supply - side policy benefits has faded, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy on eliminating backward production capacity in the industry. The daily K - line of V2509 should focus on the support near 5,090 and the resistance near 5,300 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan; the trading volume was 1,806,028 lots, a decrease of 44,699 lots; the open interest was 865,052 lots, a decrease of 209 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 760,429 lots, an increase of 15,577 lots; the sell order volume was 745,036 lots, an increase of 2,126 lots; the net buy order volume was 15,393 lots, an increase of 13,451 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,088.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 57.69 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,075.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 64.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 109 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northern China region, it was 2,598.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; in the northwestern region, it was 2,368 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 450 yuan/ton. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price was 503 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC was 77.59%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points; the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 71.95%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points; the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was not clearly presented. The total social inventory of PVC was 79.71 million tons, an increase of 1.83 million tons. The total social inventory of PVC in the East China region was 36.41 million tons, an increase of 1.43 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.69 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, a decrease of 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 30,364.32 million square meters, an increase of 7,180.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 633,321.43 million square meters, an increase of 8,301.89 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2069 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 22.85%, an increase of 1.78 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.47%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.12%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.1%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points [3] Industry News - On July 23, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 5,050 to 5,120 yuan/ton. From July 12th to 18th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. As of July 17th, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 65.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.15% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro - sentiment eases, PVC's trend returns to fundamentals. Its supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory is expected to continue accumulating. For caustic soda, the current chlor - alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, inventory removal is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers with limited upward momentum [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 4,914 yuan/ton (-16); the East China basis is -134 yuan/ton (+36); the South China basis is -64 yuan/ton (+16) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (+20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,850 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2,880 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -504 yuan/ton (-10); the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -693 yuan/ton (-53); the PVC export profit is -5.2 dollars/ton (-4.8) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 39.5 tons (-0.6); the social PVC inventory is 36.2 tons (+0.7); the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.73% (+0.30%); the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 65.46% (-1.92%); the overall PVC operation rate is 76.50% (-0.31%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 62.9 tons (-1.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2,380 yuan/ton (-11); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 26 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 770 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,415 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 512.0 yuan/ton (-40.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 80.03 yuan/ton (+0.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 38.42 tons (-0.62); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.30 tons (-0.28); the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.50% (-2.00%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 80.67% (-0.07%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.25% (-0.13%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 75.17% (-3.40%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Previous maintenance continues, and the overall PVC operation rate declines slightly. Many enterprises have planned maintenance, but the chlor - alkali profit prevents significant production cuts. New production capacities such as Bohua, Yaowang, and Wanhua are expected to be put into operation, offsetting some of the maintenance losses. The supply side is under pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products continues to decline, and domestic demand remains weak. Export orders are stable, and exports continue to increase. India's BIS standard policy is postponed for 6 months, supporting the short - term export market, but the anti - dumping policy is still uncertain [3] - Cost side: The calcium carbide market is weak due to more downstream maintenance, and the cost support for calcium carbide - based PVC is weak. The lifting of the US ban on ethane exports to China may reduce the cost of ethylene - based PVC later, but the impact is lagged [3] - Inventory: Due to sufficient supply and poor downstream demand, the social PVC inventory continues to accumulate [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The price of liquid chlorine drops significantly, increasing the marginal cost of caustic soda. There are concerns about potential passive production cuts. The operation rate of caustic soda decreases due to more maintenance, but the production cut intention is low. After maintenance, the operation rate is expected to rise, and new production capacities are planned to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation of the main downstream alumina is stable, with new production capacities expected in Shandong. The delivery volume of a Shandong alumina plant decreases, and the stocking enthusiasm declines. Non - aluminum downstream demand is weak [3] - Inventory and profit: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, inventory removal is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers [3] Strategy - PVC: Maintain a neutral stance. After the macro - sentiment eases, pay attention to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: Maintain a neutral stance. With limited upward momentum, consider shorting on rallies [4]