据隆众资讯统计，截至8月14日，PVC社会库存环比增加4.53%至81.14万吨，同比减少12.72%；其中华 东地区库存74.44万吨，环比增加5.12%，同比减少16.04%；华南地区库存6.7万吨，环比减少1.57%，同 比增加55.88%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - V2509 oscillated and declined, closing at 5,151 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 0.62% week-on-week to 77.59%. The downstream start - up rate decreased by 1% week - on - week to 40.11%, with the pipe start - up rate down 3.92% week - on - week to 33.75% and the profile start - up rate stable at 34.5%. The PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 65.73 million tons. In July, domestic PVC maintenance was gradually implemented. With the restart of previously shut - down devices, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to rise week - on - week. New devices of Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Dagu are expected to be put into production this week, increasing the medium - and long - term supply pressure. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide maintenance devices will restart this week, increasing the commodity volume and pressuring calcium carbide prices; the ethylene market has sufficient available resources, and prices are expected to be weakly stable. The market sentiment for the previous supply - side policy benefits has faded, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy on eliminating backward production capacity in the industry. The daily K - line of V2509 should focus on the support near 5,090 and the resistance near 5,300 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan; the trading volume was 1,806,028 lots, a decrease of 44,699 lots; the open interest was 865,052 lots, a decrease of 209 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 760,429 lots, an increase of 15,577 lots; the sell order volume was 745,036 lots, an increase of 2,126 lots; the net buy order volume was 15,393 lots, an increase of 13,451 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,088.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 57.69 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,075.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 64.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 109 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northern China region, it was 2,598.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; in the northwestern region, it was 2,368 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 450 yuan/ton. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price was 503 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC was 77.59%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points; the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 71.95%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points; the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was not clearly presented. The total social inventory of PVC was 79.71 million tons, an increase of 1.83 million tons. The total social inventory of PVC in the East China region was 36.41 million tons, an increase of 1.43 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.69 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, a decrease of 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 30,364.32 million square meters, an increase of 7,180.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 633,321.43 million square meters, an increase of 8,301.89 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2069 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 22.85%, an increase of 1.78 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.47%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.12%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.1%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points [3] Industry News - On July 23, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 5,050 to 5,120 yuan/ton. From July 12th to 18th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. As of July 17th, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 65.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.15% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro - sentiment eases, PVC's trend returns to fundamentals. Its supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory is expected to continue accumulating. For caustic soda, the current chlor - alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, inventory removal is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers with limited upward momentum [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 4,914 yuan/ton (-16); the East China basis is -134 yuan/ton (+36); the South China basis is -64 yuan/ton (+16) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (+20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,850 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2,880 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -504 yuan/ton (-10); the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -693 yuan/ton (-53); the PVC export profit is -5.2 dollars/ton (-4.8) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 39.5 tons (-0.6); the social PVC inventory is 36.2 tons (+0.7); the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.73% (+0.30%); the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 65.46% (-1.92%); the overall PVC operation rate is 76.50% (-0.31%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 62.9 tons (-1.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2,380 yuan/ton (-11); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 26 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 770 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,415 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 512.0 yuan/ton (-40.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 80.03 yuan/ton (+0.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 38.42 tons (-0.62); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.30 tons (-0.28); the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.50% (-2.00%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 80.67% (-0.07%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.25% (-0.13%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 75.17% (-3.40%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Previous maintenance continues, and the overall PVC operation rate declines slightly. Many enterprises have planned maintenance, but the chlor - alkali profit prevents significant production cuts. New production capacities such as Bohua, Yaowang, and Wanhua are expected to be put into operation, offsetting some of the maintenance losses. The supply side is under pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products continues to decline, and domestic demand remains weak. Export orders are stable, and exports continue to increase. India's BIS standard policy is postponed for 6 months, supporting the short - term export market, but the anti - dumping policy is still uncertain [3] - Cost side: The calcium carbide market is weak due to more downstream maintenance, and the cost support for calcium carbide - based PVC is weak. The lifting of the US ban on ethane exports to China may reduce the cost of ethylene - based PVC later, but the impact is lagged [3] - Inventory: Due to sufficient supply and poor downstream demand, the social PVC inventory continues to accumulate [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The price of liquid chlorine drops significantly, increasing the marginal cost of caustic soda. There are concerns about potential passive production cuts. The operation rate of caustic soda decreases due to more maintenance, but the production cut intention is low. After maintenance, the operation rate is expected to rise, and new production capacities are planned to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation of the main downstream alumina is stable, with new production capacities expected in Shandong. The delivery volume of a Shandong alumina plant decreases, and the stocking enthusiasm declines. Non - aluminum downstream demand is weak [3] - Inventory and profit: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, inventory removal is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers [3] Strategy - PVC: Maintain a neutral stance. After the macro - sentiment eases, pay attention to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: Maintain a neutral stance. With limited upward momentum, consider shorting on rallies [4]