Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - V2509 oscillated and declined, closing at 5,151 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 0.62% week-on-week to 77.59%. The downstream start - up rate decreased by 1% week - on - week to 40.11%, with the pipe start - up rate down 3.92% week - on - week to 33.75% and the profile start - up rate stable at 34.5%. The PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 65.73 million tons. In July, domestic PVC maintenance was gradually implemented. With the restart of previously shut - down devices, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to rise week - on - week. New devices of Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Dagu are expected to be put into production this week, increasing the medium - and long - term supply pressure. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide maintenance devices will restart this week, increasing the commodity volume and pressuring calcium carbide prices; the ethylene market has sufficient available resources, and prices are expected to be weakly stable. The market sentiment for the previous supply - side policy benefits has faded, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy on eliminating backward production capacity in the industry. The daily K - line of V2509 should focus on the support near 5,090 and the resistance near 5,300 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan; the trading volume was 1,806,028 lots, a decrease of 44,699 lots; the open interest was 865,052 lots, a decrease of 209 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 760,429 lots, an increase of 15,577 lots; the sell order volume was 745,036 lots, an increase of 2,126 lots; the net buy order volume was 15,393 lots, an increase of 13,451 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,088.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 57.69 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,075.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 64.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 109 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northern China region, it was 2,598.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; in the northwestern region, it was 2,368 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 450 yuan/ton. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price was 503 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC was 77.59%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points; the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 71.95%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points; the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was not clearly presented. The total social inventory of PVC was 79.71 million tons, an increase of 1.83 million tons. The total social inventory of PVC in the East China region was 36.41 million tons, an increase of 1.43 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.69 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, a decrease of 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 30,364.32 million square meters, an increase of 7,180.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 633,321.43 million square meters, an increase of 8,301.89 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2069 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 22.85%, an increase of 1.78 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.47%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.12%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.1%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points [3] Industry News - On July 23, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 5,050 to 5,120 yuan/ton. From July 12th to 18th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. As of July 17th, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 65.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.15% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, domestic PVC plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, with plans for plants in Shanxi Yushe, Yanhu Haina, and Ordos to shut down, expected to keep the capacity utilization rate on a downward trend. Although plants like Wanhua, Bohua, and Gansu Yaowang are scheduled to start production, future policies to push out backward production capacity may ease supply pressure. - It's the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the Indian market demand is constrained by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July, and the BIS certification in India has been extended to mid - December. - The impact of power restrictions in Inner Mongolia on calcium carbide has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed operation. The US has lifted restrictions on ethane exports to China, which may lead to a decrease in the cost of the ethylene - based method. - In the short term, the expectation of production capacity exit and real - estate support policies gives room for a premium on the main futures contract, but the futures price is suppressed by weak real - world demand and costs. Technically, the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 4885 and the resistance around 5000 [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4963 yuan/ton, a increase of 69 yuan; the trading volume was 974,935 lots, an increase of 240,750 lots; the open interest was 967,373 lots, an increase of 32,878 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 16,621 lots, an increase of 42,834 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4792.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4841.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 173 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2631.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 184 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 188 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65%; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.8%, a decrease of 0.17%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 68.54%, a decrease of 1.92%. The total social inventory of PVC was 37.31 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons; the inventory in East China was 33.03 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons; the inventory in South China was 4.28 million tons, an increase of 0.04 million tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of newly started housing area was 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, an increase of 47.0449 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, an increase of 428.168 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 13.71%, an increase of 0.77%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.63%, an increase of 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of PVC was 19.17%, an increase of 0.65% [3]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission estimates that China's GDP in 2025 will be around 140 trillion yuan. - According to Longzhong Information, on July 9, the cash - remittance price of PVCSG5 in East China warehouses increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4760 - 4860 yuan/ton. - From June 28 to July 4, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous period. V2509 rose 1.58% to close at 4963 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, affected by the shutdown and maintenance of plants such as Ningxia Yinglite and Inner Mongolia Sanlian, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.65% to 77.44%. On the demand side, last week, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.1% to 42.88%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 0.94% to 39.5%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.25% to 34.75%. In terms of inventory, last week, the commercial inventory of PP decreased by 0.09% to 785,100 tons, at a neutral level compared with the same period in the past three years. - As of July 3, the new sample statistics of Longzhong's social inventory increased by 2.89% to 5.918 million tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 37.66% [3].