Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC price has limited upside space under the background of weak supply and demand after the digestion of previous macro - positive factors. V2509 is expected to focus on the support around 4950 and the pressure around 5050 on the daily K - line [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4975 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the trading volume is 982125 lots, down 51490 lots; the open interest is 959779 lots, up 2988 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 780350 lots, down 2969 lots; the short position is 788539 lots, up 13916 lots; the net long position is - 8189 lots, down 16885 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4868.46 yuan/ton, down 20.38 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5005 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4917.5 yuan/ton, down 31.88 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 105 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2621.67 yuan/ton, down 8.33 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, down 200.5 yuan. The weekly average price of VCM CFR Far East is 503 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars; the weekly average price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 548 dollars/ton, down 16 dollars. The weekly average price of EDC CFR Far East is 211 dollars/ton, up 27 dollars; the weekly average price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 219 dollars/ton, up 31 dollars [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, down 0.47 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, down 1.59 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, up 2.48 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, up 1.96 tons. The total social inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, up 1.95 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 4.29 tons, up 0.01 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, up 5347.77 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, up 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, up 4281.68 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.44%, up 0.1 percentage point; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.74%, up 0.1 percentage point. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.61%, up 1.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.61%, up 1.16 percentage points [3] Industry News - On July 14, the spot exchange price of Changzhou PVCSG5 was stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4820 to 4910 yuan/ton. From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. As of July 10th, the large - sample statistics of PVC social inventory increased by 5.37% month - on - month to 62.36 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34.15% [3] Outlook - In July, domestic PVC plants are under centralized maintenance. This week, a 300,000 - ton plant of Yidongdongxing is planned to stop for maintenance, and some previously shut - down plants will restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise month - on - month. In the long - term, the planned commissioning of plants by Wanhua, Bohua, and Tianjin Dagu in July will increase the industry's supply pressure. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. There is still uncertainty about the calcium carbide production restrictions in Inner Mongolia. Due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports to China, the domestic ethylene supply tends to be loose, and the cost of the ethylene - based process may continue to decline in the short term [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 12, V2509 fluctuated strongly, closing at 4,836 yuan/ton. The supply side saw a 1.01% week-on-week increase in PVC capacity utilization to 80.34%. The demand side had a 2.01% week-on-week increase in downstream PVC开工率 to 45.99%, with the pipe开工率 up 5% to 48.13% and the profile开工率 up 2.5% to 35.9%. PVC social inventory decreased by 0.41% week-on-week to 651,000 tons, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. In May, the number of PVC parking capacities will gradually increase, potentially easing future supply pressure. After the holiday, the开工 of downstream product enterprises recovered, but orders were lackluster. The joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with both sides only retaining the imposed 10% tariff, which is beneficial for the export of domestic PVC flooring. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by BIS certification, anti-dumping duties, and the rainy season, and the US tariff on Vietnam has not been alleviated, which may affect the export of Chinese PVC raw materials. In terms of costs, there is an expectation of a decline in calcium carbide prices, but power rationing uncertainties still affect future prices; the ethylene US dollar market is stagnant, and prices are expected to remain stable. In the short term, the easing of China-US trade tensions gives a strong expectation to V2509, with attention paid to the pressure around 4,900 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Closing price of PVC: 4,836 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; trading volume: 1,145,985 lots, up 439,095 lots; open interest: 1,064,312 lots, down 13,123 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -103,382 lots, up 9,170 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China market, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 5,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,696.15 yuan/ton, down 0.77 yuan. In the South China market, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 4,980 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,767.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -176 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,823.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,618 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 538 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 567 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 162 US dollars/ton, down 34 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 164 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly开工率 of PVC was 80.34%, up 1.01 percentage points; the开工率 of calcium carbide-based PVC was 81.33%, up 2.33 percentage points; the开工率 of ethylene-based PVC was 77.75%, down 2.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 409,800 tons, up 6,200 tons, with 367,400 tons in the East China region, up 5,600 tons, and 42,400 tons in the South China region, up 600 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Housing Climate Index was 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.1370544 billion square meters, up 77.3344 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 14.1%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.94%, up 0.14 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 18.85%, down 0.46 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On May 12, the joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with both sides only retaining the imposed 10% tariff. - On May 12, the spot cash price of PVCSG5 in the Changzhou market remained stable compared to last Friday, at 4,590 - 4,730 yuan/ton. - From May 3 to 9, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.34%, a 1.01% increase from the previous period. As of May 8, the new (41 - company) sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 0.41% to 651,000 tons, a 25.71% decrease year - on - year [3].

| 分瑞达期货 | | --- | | RUIDA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | PVC产业日报 2025-05-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4876 | 22 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 849771 | 307264 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 982127 | 12927 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 727115 | 1681 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 826515 | 12987 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -99400 | -11306 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5050 | -25 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4739.23 | -42.31 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5030 | -20 华南:PVC:电石 ...