Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the previous high inventory is expected to be digested [3]. - The start - up rate of the downstream is expected to rise to a relatively high level throughout the year as it gradually enters the traditional peak season [3]. - Overseas ethylene - based plants have shut down due to raw material shortages, and the improvement of domestic exports depends on the duration of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - In the short term, V2605 is expected to fluctuate widely due to the impact of Middle East geopolitical news [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5703 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the trading volume is 1,758,230 lots, down 219,507 lots; the open interest is 716,758 lots, down 36,471 lots [3]. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,019,635 lots, down 18,245 lots; the short position is 1,006,427 lots, down 34,906 lots; the net long position is 13,208 lots, up 16,661 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 7300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China is 5829.26 yuan/ton, down 192.22 yuan [3]. - The price of ethylene - based PVC in South China is 6725 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in South China is 5828.75 yuan/ton, down 312.5 yuan [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia is 1050 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe is 1050 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 203 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2900 yuan/ton, 2921.67 yuan/ton, and 2773 yuan/ton respectively, with the price in Northwest China up 40 yuan/ton [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 916 US dollars/ton and 969 US dollars/ton respectively, up 129 US dollars/ton and 181 US dollars/ton [3]. - The CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 351 US dollars/ton and 350 US dollars/ton respectively, up 51 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC is 80.12%, down 1.23%; the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 84.71%, up 1.78%; the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC is 69.24%, down 8.36% [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 610,500 tons, down 21,300 tons; the total social inventory in East China is 567,300 tons, down 13,500 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 43,200 tons, down 7800 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45; the cumulative value of newly started housing area is 587,699,600 square meters, up 53,132,600 square meters [3]. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,598,902,900 square meters, up 38,240,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 448.9598 billion yuan, up 287.141 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 39.74%, down 0.53%; the 40 - day historical volatility of PVC is 32.31%, down 0.04% [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC is 50.78%, down 3.75%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options of PVC is 50.77%, down 3.69% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.12%, down 1.23% from the previous period [3]. - From March 14th to 20th, the downstream start - up rate of PVC increased by 2.33% to 41.66%, among which the start - up rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 39.2%, and the start - up rate of profiles increased by 4.35% to 34.35% [3]. - As of March 19th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.3713 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.55% and a year - on - year increase of 64.47% [3]. - From March 13th to 19th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 4.68% to 5391 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased by 13.06% to 7294 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 193 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 198 yuan/ton to - 433 yuan/ton [3].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic PVC supply and demand are in a tight - balanced state, and the previous high inventory is expected to be digested. The V2605 is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to geopolitical news. The downstream is gradually entering the traditional peak season, and the operating rate is expected to rise to a relatively high level for the whole year. Overseas device shutdowns in South Korea and other countries are beneficial to PVC exports [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5860 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 125 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 2,273,087 lots, with a ring - on - ring increase of 267,171 lots; the open interest is 831,069 lots, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 24,311 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,033,792 lots, with a ring - on - ring increase of 3,876 lots; the short position is 1,058,909 lots, with a ring - on - ring increase of 14,284 lots; the net long position is - 25,117 lots, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 10,408 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 6,500 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,689.26 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 48.52 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 6,545 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 35 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,750.62 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 106.25 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia is 1,050 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 210 US dollars/ton; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 1,050 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 140 US dollars/ton. The basis of PVC is - 55 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 116 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,825 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 25 yuan/ton; in North China, it is 2,833.33 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 43.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it is 2,661 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 18 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, with no change. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 787 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 245 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 788 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 210 US dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 300 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 55 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 299 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 50 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 81.35%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 0.24%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 82.93%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 2.28%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 77.6%, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 4.61%. The total social inventory of PVC is 63.18 tons, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 0.39 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region is 58.08 tons, with no change; in the South China region, it is 5.1 tons, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 0.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 587,699,600 square meters, with a ring - on - ring increase of 53,132,600 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,598,902,900 square meters, with a ring - on - ring increase of 38,240,900 square meters. The cumulative value of completed real estate development investment is 448.9598 billion yuan, with a ring - on - ring increase of 287.141 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 39.97%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 2%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 32.09%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 0.87%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 48.67%, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 10.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 48.68%, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 10.07% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 81.35%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 0.24%. From March 7th to 13th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 3.49% to 39.33% on a ring - on - ring basis, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 38% and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.61% to 30% on a ring - on - ring basis. As of March 12th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.4072 million tons, with a ring - on - ring increase of 0.24%. From March 6th to 12th, the national average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 8.02% to 5,150 yuan/ton on a ring - on - ring basis, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20.22% to 6,452 yuan/ton on a ring - on - ring basis. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 159 yuan/ton to 267 yuan/ton on a ring - on - ring basis, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 48 yuan/ton to - 235 yuan/ton on a ring - on - ring basis [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC industry is currently facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals. Even though the valuation has dropped to a historical low and the Indian import policy has loosened, it is difficult to change the supply shock caused by large - scale production this year. - The industry has not seen a substantial large - scale production cut. The trading logic is dominated by the expectation of weak fundamentals. - In the medium term, after the new device is put into production, the supply - demand pattern is poor. The real estate demand continues to decline, and it is necessary to rely on export growth or the clearance of old devices to digest the domestic excess production capacity. - In the current situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand, the domestic demand is poor, and it is difficult to reverse the pattern of oversupply. Before the industry makes a substantial production cut, the main idea is to short on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,905 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 75 yuan/ton; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 870 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 70 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has further declined to a historical low, and the profit of ethylene production has continued to be low. The overall valuation pressure is small [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 80.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2%. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide method is 83.6%, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%; the utilization rate of ethylene method is 72.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%. The maintenance volume last month remained stable, the average capacity utilization rate remained high, and new devices released production. The supply pressure continued from October, and the daily average output continued to reach new highs. This month, the expected maintenance intensity is reduced, and Gansu Yaowang will release production, so the supply pressure is expected to further increase [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the export volume in October decreased slightly, mainly due to the seasonal decline in exports to India. Currently, India's BIS certification policy has been cancelled, and it is expected that the anti - dumping tax rate will not be implemented, so the export pressure of China has been greatly reduced. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have continued to rise. The load of pipes is 38.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%; the load of films is 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%; the load of profiles is 36.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. The overall downstream load is 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The overall downstream operation has begun to decline gradually and will enter the off - season [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory is 323,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the social inventory is 1.043 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,000 tons; the overall inventory is 1.366 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons; the warehouse receipts continue to rise. Currently, it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. With the demand gradually entering the off - season and the supply remaining at a high level, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11]. - **Summary**: Last month, the trading of PVC was mainly based on weak fundamentals. Even though the valuation level has dropped to a historical low and the Indian import policy has loosened, it is difficult to change the supply shock caused by large - scale production this year. The inventory is difficult to reduce before the off - season, and the industry has not seen a substantial large - scale production cut. The expectation of weak fundamentals dominates the trading logic. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historical low level, and the short - term valuation pressure is small. However, the maintenance volume on the supply side is small, the production is at a historical high, and new devices are releasing production. On the downstream side, domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. In terms of exports, India's BIS policy has been revoked, and it is expected that the anti - dumping tax rate will not be implemented, so it is expected to maintain a high export volume to India. However, it is still difficult to digest the excess production capacity at present. The calcium carbide on the cost side has strengthened, and caustic soda has declined. In the medium term, after the new device is put into production, the supply - demand pattern is poor, and the real estate demand continues to decline. It is necessary to rely on export growth or the clearance of old devices to digest the domestic excess production capacity. Overall, in the current situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand, the domestic demand is poor, and it is difficult to reverse the pattern of oversupply. Before the industry makes a substantial production cut, the main idea is to short on rallies [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report provides multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the PVC term structure, the price of PVC East China SG - 5, the spot basis, the 1 - 5 spread, the active contract position, the active contract trading volume, the total position, and the total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided [15][17][20][24][26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The chlor - alkali integration profit has declined to a historical low level, and the valuation pressure is small [42]. - **Inventory**: The report provides multiple charts related to PVC inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - method in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - method in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts, but no specific text analysis is provided [32][34][38]. 3.4 Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have started to rise. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide has increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the price of Shandong calcium carbide has increased by 75 yuan/ton month - on - month [11][49]. - The price of semi - coke has continued to rise, caustic soda has declined, and ethylene has remained weak [52]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity investment intensity is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. A total of 2.5 million tons/year of new capacity is expected to be put into production, including 80,000 tons/year of calcium carbide method and 1.7 million tons/year of ethylene method [61][66]. - The capacity utilization rate of PVC is 80.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2%. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide method is 83.6%, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%; the utilization rate of ethylene method is 72.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% [11]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Exports**: In October, the export volume decreased slightly, mainly due to the seasonal decline in exports to India. Currently, India's BIS certification policy has been cancelled, and it is expected that the anti - dumping tax rate will not be implemented, so the export pressure of China has been greatly reduced [11]. - **Downstream Operation**: The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have continued to rise. The load of pipes is 38.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%; the load of films is 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%; the load of profiles is 36.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. The overall downstream load is 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The overall downstream operation has begun to decline gradually and will enter the off - season [11].