1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the recovery of domestic demand is sluggish. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4956 - 5072. It's necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [9][13] - There are both positive and negative factors in the PVC market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - On February 2, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 154 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is considered bearish. [10] - The factory inventory was 29.0183 tons, a decrease of 5.81% month - on - month. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 21.1173 tons, a decrease of 5.71% month - on - month, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 7.901 tons, a decrease of 6.09% month - on - month. The social inventory was 58.466 tons, an increase of 1.41% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 4.8 days, a decrease of 5.88% month - on - month, showing a neutral situation. [10] - MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20, which is considered bullish. [10] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply Side - According to Longzhong statistics, the PVC output in December 2025 was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 78.93%, with a 0.00 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. The output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 347,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the output of ethylene method enterprises was 136,110 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96%. The supply pressure increased this week, and it's expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production. [7] Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 44.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, but higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 31.52%, unchanged month - on - month, and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 37%, unchanged month - on - month, and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 65.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 percentage points, and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 80.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09 percentage points, and higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is not competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish. [8] Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 744.17 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was 20.93 yuan/ton, turning from loss to profit with a month - on - month increase of 57.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1864.73 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure. [8] Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is considered bearish. [9] Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure increased this week, and it's expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. The current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics, and the PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4956 - 5072. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different types of PVC enterprises, monthly spreads, and downstream operating rates. [15][16] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It includes the analysis of the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of the main contract of PVC futures. [18][21][24] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production volume of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry in the calcium carbide method production process. [27][30][33][36][39] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly output of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production. [41][43][44] - **Demand Trend**: It analyzes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rate of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin). It also analyzes the relationship between the PVC market and the real estate market, social financing scale, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment. [46][49][56] - **Inventory**: It analyzes the inventory data of exchange warrants, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, social inventories, and production enterprise inventory days. [59][60] - **Ethylene Method**: It analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB price difference, and vinyl chloride import price difference. [61][62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand data of PVC in 2024 - 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference. [64][65]