1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last month, PVC fluctuated upward. The cancellation of export tax rebates for PVC led to a short - term rush to export. Against the backdrop of a strong commodity atmosphere, the market traded on the expectation of production cuts under low valuations. - Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a moderately low level. However, the reduction in supply is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestically, demand is gradually entering the off - season, putting pressure on the demand side. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred a short - term rush to export, which is the only short - term support for the fundamentals. - The cost of calcium carbide has increased, while caustic soda is weak. Overall, in the face of strong domestic supply and weak demand, poor domestic demand makes it difficult to reverse the pattern of oversupply, and the fundamentals are poor. Short - term expectations of electricity prices, capacity clearance, and the sentiment of the rush to export support PVC. As the industry enters a very low - profit range, the weak fundamentals are affecting the expectations of the industrial pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 225 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,930 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 785 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. In terms of profit, the comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali has declined again to a historical low, while the profit from ethylene production has rebounded significantly, and the overall valuation pressure is relatively small [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. Among them, the utilization rate of the calcium carbide method is 80.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%; the utilization rate of the ethylene method is 75.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%. The amount of maintenance last month was still small, the average capacity utilization rate remained stable, and the supply pressure was still high [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the export volume in December rebounded slightly. The export tax rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the market has entered a short - term rush - to - export stage, with the expected export volume increasing significantly. The seasonal decline in the start - up of the three major downstream industries: the pipe load is 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%; the film load is 62.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3%; the profile load is 29.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The overall downstream load is 41.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. The overall downstream start - up has gradually declined and is gradually entering the off - season [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory is 28.8 tons, a month - on - month reduction of 2.2 tons; the social inventory is 122.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15 tons; the overall inventory is 151.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.9 tons; the number of warehouse receipts has decreased. Currently, it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. Even though the short - term rush to export brings additional demand, it is difficult to reverse the inventory accumulation trend during the domestic off - season [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The content mainly presents multiple charts, including the PVC term structure, the price of PVC East China SG - 5, the PVC spot basis, the PVC 5 - 9 spread, the PVC active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but there is no text summary and analysis [15][18][19]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory The content shows multiple charts related to inventory and profit, such as the in - factory inventory of PVC calcium carbide method, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventories, warehouse receipts, the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, the profit of PVC calcium carbide method, the profit of PVC ethylene method, and the profit of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide, but there is no text summary and analysis [30][31][39]. 3.4 Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have increased. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide and Shandong calcium carbide has risen, while the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi has declined. The report also presents charts of calcium carbide prices, inventory, and start - up rate, as well as the prices of other raw materials such as liquid chlorine, 32% liquid caustic soda, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but there is no text summary and analysis [45][49][52]. 3.5 Supply Side - The historical trend of PVC production capacity shows growth and fluctuations. In 2025, a total of 250 tons of new PVC production capacity was put into operation, including both calcium carbide and ethylene methods. The start - up rates of PVC, calcium carbide method, and ethylene method, as well as the weekly production volume, are also presented in the charts, but there is no text summary and analysis [59][60][63]. 3.6 Demand Side - The start - up rates of PVC downstream industries such as pipes, films, and profiles have shown a seasonal decline. The export volume of PVC and the export volume to India are presented in the charts, as well as the pre - sales volume, the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, and the PVC industry chain and mind map, but there is no text summary and analysis [73][75][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the recovery of domestic demand is sluggish. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4956 - 5072. It's necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [9][13] - There are both positive and negative factors in the PVC market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - On February 2, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 154 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is considered bearish. [10] - The factory inventory was 29.0183 tons, a decrease of 5.81% month - on - month. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 21.1173 tons, a decrease of 5.71% month - on - month, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 7.901 tons, a decrease of 6.09% month - on - month. The social inventory was 58.466 tons, an increase of 1.41% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 4.8 days, a decrease of 5.88% month - on - month, showing a neutral situation. [10] - MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20, which is considered bullish. [10] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply Side - According to Longzhong statistics, the PVC output in December 2025 was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 78.93%, with a 0.00 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. The output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 347,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the output of ethylene method enterprises was 136,110 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96%. The supply pressure increased this week, and it's expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production. [7] Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 44.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, but higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 31.52%, unchanged month - on - month, and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 37%, unchanged month - on - month, and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 65.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 percentage points, and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 80.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09 percentage points, and higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is not competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish. [8] Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 744.17 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was 20.93 yuan/ton, turning from loss to profit with a month - on - month increase of 57.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1864.73 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure. [8] Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is considered bearish. [9] Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure increased this week, and it's expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. The current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics, and the PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4956 - 5072. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different types of PVC enterprises, monthly spreads, and downstream operating rates. [15][16] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It includes the analysis of the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of the main contract of PVC futures. [18][21][24] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production volume of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry in the calcium carbide method production process. [27][30][33][36][39] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly output of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production. [41][43][44] - **Demand Trend**: It analyzes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rate of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin). It also analyzes the relationship between the PVC market and the real estate market, social financing scale, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment. [46][49][56] - **Inventory**: It analyzes the inventory data of exchange warrants, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, social inventories, and production enterprise inventory days. [59][60] - **Ethylene Method**: It analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB price difference, and vinyl chloride import price difference. [61][62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand data of PVC in 2024 - 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference. [64][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on PVC is bullish in the medium - to - long - term, with short - term expectation of oscillation [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, PVC lacks obvious drivers and is expected to oscillate. In the medium - to - long - term, with few global PVC projects coming into production and capacity gradually exiting, the market trend is bullish. Factors such as supply, demand, and inventory are currently exerting bearish pressure, while profit, valuation, and macro - policies are bullish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change in the short - term. The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 79.67%, with an increase of 1.03% month - on - month and a decrease of 1.33% year - on - year. The maintenance loss of PVC production enterprises this week is 3.105 tons, a decrease of 0.228 tons from the previous period [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Downstream demand has entered the off - season, with a decline in downstream start - up. The start - up rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises is 35.40%, a decrease of 0.20% month - on - month and an increase of 2.27% year - on - year. In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 27.53 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11.78% and a year - on - year increase of 29.64% [3]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. This week, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% to 111.41 tons month - on - month, and the PVC production enterprise's factory inventory production days increased by 5.47% month - on - month [3]. - **Basis**: Neutral. The basis has strengthened, and the current basis is - 267 yuan/ton [3]. - **Profit**: Bullish. This week, the profits of both PVC production processes increased month - on - month. As of January 8, the average gross profit of national calcium carbide - based PVC production enterprises was - 634 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the average gross profit of national ethylene - based PVC production enterprises was - 192 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 87 yuan/ton [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The price is at a historical low, and the valuation is low [3]. - **Macro - policy**: Bullish. The macro - sentiment is warm, the RMB is continuously appreciating, and there is an expectation of rising crude oil prices due to the US military action against Venezuela [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for unilateral trading, buy on dips [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market fluctuated strongly this week. The market price was mainly affected by macro - expectations. On Friday night, after the cancellation of PVC export subsidies, the market price declined. On the supply side, there were no new enterprises under maintenance, but the start - up of some calcium carbide - based enterprises remained low. With the end of maintenance at some enterprises, production increased slightly. On the demand side, the domestic downstream start - up continued to decline, and export orders weakened. Due to the change in tariff policies, there may be a rush to export, and attention should be paid to changes in port inventory [6]. 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: After the end of maintenance, the production in the northwest region is high [40]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand has entered the off - season, and the average downstream start - up rate has declined [69]. - **Export**: It is the seasonal off - season, and exports have slowed down. After the cancellation of export subsidies in April, there may be a rush to export. India's policy changes have led to a good situation for domestic product export orders, and there is still great potential for growth in subsequent exports [82][90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - The later stage of caustic soda still faces pressure. The supply side has high production and inventory, and the winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, resulting in large supply pressure. The demand side is affected by the low profit of alumina, seasonal decline in non - aluminum downstream demand, and weak export, making it difficult to support the overall demand. The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation, and it is difficult to rebound significantly without production reduction by manufacturers [5][6]. 2.2 PVC - The trend of PVC is weak. The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. The export market competition pressure increases in 2025, and the domestic demand related to real estate is weak. Although there may be phased rebounds, the space is limited. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, but the supply - side production reduction in the maintenance peak season in the next year can be expected [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The main logic of short - sellers includes high supply, high inventory, continuous expectation of alumina production reduction, new capacity in the next year, slowdown in export growth, and changes in delivery areas and delivery premiums. The main logic of long - sellers includes anti - deflation and anti - involution trends, large losses in integrated profits of caustic soda and PVC, and expansion of the export market due to overseas plant shutdowns [13]. - The basis of caustic soda 01 fluctuates, and the 1 - 5 month spread weakens [16]. - The export market of caustic soda still has support but also faces structural adjustment. In October 2025, China's liquid caustic soda export volume was 330,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.39% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.90%. The cumulative export volume from January to October was 2.944 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.93%. The cumulative export of caustic soda from January to October was 3.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. It is expected that the annual export in 2025 will increase by at least 30% year - on - year and exceed 4 million tons [20][23]. - The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is acceptable, and the spread between flake caustic soda and liquid caustic soda declines, which is negative for caustic soda. The spread between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda also declines, which is negative for caustic soda [31][34][36]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and an increase in inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China is 84.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country is 464,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 1.66% and a year - on - year increase of 52.34% [43][44][45]. - Attention should be paid to the significant reduction in maintenance after December. There are many enterprises in different regions with maintenance plans [49]. - Caustic soda will continue to be put into production in 2025 and 2026, with a capacity growth rate of over 3%. In 2025, the planned production capacity is 1.9 million tons, and in 2026, the planned and under - construction production capacity that can be put into production is 2.56 million tons [51]. - In December, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province is reduced, and the cost of caustic soda is difficult to support. The price of liquid chlorine does not provide significant subsidies, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited [52][56]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - In 2025, the alumina capacity expands greatly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. As of November 2025, 8.3 million tons of new alumina production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected that there will still be 1.7 million tons of capacity to be put into operation in 2025, but the specific progress needs to be followed up. In 2026, the new alumina production capacity is expected to reach 13.9 million tons, with 76% in the southern market and 24% in the northern market [74][75][76]. - The alumina industry has a negative impact on caustic soda. The low profit of alumina leads to cautious procurement of caustic soda by alumina plants, a decrease in inventory levels, and difficulty in transferring caustic soda inventory downstream, resulting in a decline in caustic soda prices [90]. - The demand in the pulp industry is in the off - season, and the terminal profit is continuously compressed. The new capacity of pulp continues to be put into production, with 3.901 million tons in 2025 and 3.496 million tons in 2026 [91][97]. - The开工 rate of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries declines, the water treatment industry has stable operation, and the output of the ternary precursor industry declines [103][105][107]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - The main contract of PVC changes, the basis fluctuates and strengthens, and the 1 - 5 month spread fluctuates and weakens [112]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC production enterprises' capacity utilization rate is 77.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. The ethylene - based method is 76.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.36% and a year - on - year increase of 0.22%. The calcium carbide - based method is 77.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.04% [118][119]. - In December 2025, the maintenance of PVC decreases. There are long - term parking, maintenance, and temporary parking, as well as later - planned maintenance situations in different regions [121]. - As of 2025, 2.2 million tons of new PVC production capacity has been put into operation, and there is no new production capacity in 2026 [122]. - The chlor - alkali plants in Shandong are in a loss situation, reaching the cash - flow cost. The integrated profit of the northwest chlor - alkali plants is at a low level, and the impact of profit on supply is weakened in winter [124][127]. - PVC production enterprises have a slight inventory build - up, and the social inventory is at a high level. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall downstream PVC开工 rate decreases month - on - month [128][133][139]. - In October 2025, the PVC export volume is 312,100 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to October is 3.2338 million tons. The single - month export volume decreases by 9.91% month - on - month, increases by 34.28% year - on - year compared with the same month of last year, and the cumulative export volume increases by 48.88% year - on - year. India is still the most important destination for China's PVC exports [146]. - The PVC warehouse receipts decline but are still at a high level [148].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is currently characterized by low valuation and weak drivers. The supply side is expected to see an increase in production in December due to fewer maintenance plans and new production capacity. The demand side is weak, mainly due to the continued downturn in the real estate industry and the approaching off - season. However, the cancellation of anti - dumping policies and BIS certification in India will increase exports and relieve some domestic supply pressure. The PVC price may oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread strategy [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply: Maintenance Plans Decrease, Expected Output to Continue Increasing - In November, there were still some PVC enterprises under maintenance, but the number decreased compared to October, and the overall operating rate increased. In December, there are still plans for new production by individual enterprises, which will further expand the production capacity base. With fewer PVC production enterprises having maintenance plans in China, the operating rate has increased, and the overall supply pressure will continue to increase [2][5][20]. - The operating rate of PVC production has increased slightly month - on - month and remains at a relatively high level overall, including both calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production methods [8]. 2. Demand: Real Estate Construction to Gradually Decline, Expected Decline in the Operating Rate of Pipes and Profiles - Domestic real estate construction is still weak. As the weather gets colder, data on cement shipments and apparent demand for rebar indicate a weakening of real estate construction. Affected by the off - season of downstream demand and the continued downturn in the real estate industry, the operating rate of product enterprises is low, and overall demand is poor. Product enterprises mainly purchase goods based on rigid demand at low prices and have a strong wait - and - see attitude. - In terms of exports, the cancellation of anti - dumping policies and BIS certification in India will increase China's export volume and relieve some domestic supply pressure [2]. - There is an expectation of a rebound in real - estate transactions at the end of the year [35]. 3. Inventory: Supply - demand Pressure Remains, Total Inventory Oscillates at a High Level - The fundamentals still show strong supply and weak demand. With the expectation of a further decline in downstream demand and a continued deterioration in terminal enterprise orders, the PVC inventory digestion ability will continue to weaken [45]. 4. Spread: Expected Narrow - range Oscillation of the Basis - The basis is expected to oscillate in a narrow range. The futures price has continued to decline, and the basis has been repaired compared to before, with the hedging space narrowing [2]. 5. Profit: Weak Profit Performance of Calcium Carbide - based and Ethylene - based Production - The profit performance of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC production is weak [4].

Group 1 - The PVC futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 4490.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of 1.22% during the day [1] - Domestic PVC supply is expected to increase due to a reduction in planned maintenance among producers, while demand remains weak with downstream manufacturers operating at low levels [1] - The overall PVC market is facing challenges, with limited positive factors and expectations of further price declines [1] Group 2 - Supply pressures continue as new production capacity is released, despite a slight decrease in operating rates last week [2] - Demand is entering a seasonal slowdown, with mixed performance in different product categories [2] - Inventory levels are rising, and the overall supply-demand balance for PVC remains weak, indicating a bearish long-term trend [2]