预期与现实博弈， PVC震荡向上 PVC月报 2026/02/06 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2550元/吨，月同比上涨225元/吨；山东电石价格报2930元/吨，月同比上涨150元/吨；兰炭陕西中料785元/吨， 月同比下跌35元/吨。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润重新下滑至历史低位，乙烯制利润大幅回升，综合估值压力较小。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率79.3%，月同比上升0.6%；其中电石法80.9%，月同比上升2.5%；乙烯法75.5%，月同比下降3.8%。上月检修量仍然较小， 平均产能利用率持稳，供应压力仍然较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面，十二月出口量小幅回升，出口退税政策计划4月1日取消，短期进入抢出口阶段，预期出口量大幅上升；三大下游开工季节 性下滑，管材 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the recovery of domestic demand is sluggish. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4956 - 5072. It's necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [9][13] - There are both positive and negative factors in the PVC market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - On February 2, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 154 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is considered bearish. [10] - The factory inventory was 29.0183 tons, a decrease of 5.81% month - on - month. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 21.1173 tons, a decrease of 5.71% month - on - month, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 7.901 tons, a decrease of 6.09% month - on - month. The social inventory was 58.466 tons, an increase of 1.41% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 4.8 days, a decrease of 5.88% month - on - month, showing a neutral situation. [10] - MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20, which is considered bullish. [10] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply Side - According to Longzhong statistics, the PVC output in December 2025 was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 78.93%, with a 0.00 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. The output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 347,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the output of ethylene method enterprises was 136,110 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96%. The supply pressure increased this week, and it's expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production. [7] Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 44.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, but higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 31.52%, unchanged month - on - month, and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 37%, unchanged month - on - month, and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 65.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 percentage points, and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 80.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09 percentage points, and higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is not competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish. [8] Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 744.17 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was 20.93 yuan/ton, turning from loss to profit with a month - on - month increase of 57.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1864.73 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure. [8] Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is considered bearish. [9] Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure increased this week, and it's expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. The current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics, and the PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4956 - 5072. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different types of PVC enterprises, monthly spreads, and downstream operating rates. [15][16] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It includes the analysis of the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of the main contract of PVC futures. [18][21][24] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production volume of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry in the calcium carbide method production process. [27][30][33][36][39] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly output of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production. [41][43][44] - **Demand Trend**: It analyzes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rate of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin). It also analyzes the relationship between the PVC market and the real estate market, social financing scale, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment. [46][49][56] - **Inventory**: It analyzes the inventory data of exchange warrants, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, social inventories, and production enterprise inventory days. [59][60] - **Ethylene Method**: It analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB price difference, and vinyl chloride import price difference. [61][62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand data of PVC in 2024 - 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference. [64][65]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 出口退税取消，盘面价格回落 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-12 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 PVC周度数据 | | | | | | PVC主要周度数据汇总 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | | 主力价格（元/吨) | 4897 00 . | 4805 00 . | 1 91% . | | 中国产量(万吨) | 48 78 . | 48 39 . | 0 81% . | | | 近月价格 | 4574 00 . | 4492 00 . | 1 83% . | 产 量 | 电石法产量(万吨) | 34 34 . | 33 82 . | 1 56% . ...

烧碱：后期仍有压力 PVC：趋势偏弱 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：后期仍有压力 供应 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.7%，较上周环比-1.5%。分区域来看，华北有前期负荷不满装置提负，负荷小幅上 升，华北+0.3%至82.4%，其中山东-0.1%至92.9%。华东、西南、华中、华南负荷下滑，华东、华南地区存在企业检修，负荷下滑明显 ， 华东-6.0%至71.9%，西南-5.3%至79.0%，华南-4.6%至84.5%，华中-0.8%至81.9%。其它大区基本稳定。 需求 氧化铝方面，由于高产量、高库存的格局，利润被持续压缩，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽然年底到明年年 ...

光大证券 1 2020 年半年度业绩 EVERBRIGHT SECURITIES 光期能化：PVC策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 日 PVC：低估值，弱驱动 | 摘 要 | | --- | | 1、供应：11月仍有部分 PVC 企业检修，但相比于 10 月份数量有所减少，整体开工率有所提升，12月仍有个别企业有新投产计划，产能基 | | 数将进一步扩大，加之国内存有检修计划的 PVC生产企业较少，开工率有所提升，整体供应压力将继续增加。 | | 2、需求：国内房地产施工表现仍然偏弱，天气逐渐变冷，水泥发运和螺纹表需数据显示房地产施工走弱，下游需求淡季以及房地产行业持 | | 续低迷拖累，制品企业开工率较低，整体需求较差，制品企业拿货多保持刚需低价为主，观望情绪浓厚。出口方面，印度取消反倾销政策 | | 及 BIS 认证，国内出口量将有所增加，将缓解国内部分供应压力。 | | 3、库存：基本面依旧供强需弱，随着下游需求有进一步下滑预期，终端企业订单有继续转差预期，PVC 库存消化能力将继续减弱。 | | 4、总结：供应端，12月企业检修低谷，产量将继续增长；需求端，从水泥发运率和螺纹钢表观需求的数据来看 ...

11月20日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，PVC期货主力合约开盘报4490.00元/吨，今日盘中低位 震荡运行；截至午间收盘，PVC主力最高触及4490.00元，下方探低4416.00元，跌幅达1.22%。 华联期货分析称，供应端上周开工率降低，但在年内新增产能不断释放背景下，供应依旧承压。需求端 管材开工率小幅提升，但型材薄膜类开工率降低。终端逐步进入需求淡季。出口方面，印度终止对进口 PVC的BIS政策利多，关注后期反倾销后期落地情况。库存端社库厂库均小幅去库，仓单库存继续走 高。成本方面电石乙烯价格弱势，估值驱动不足，氯碱综合利润下滑。总体看PVC供需维持弱势局面， 中长线趋势依旧偏弱。操作方面，场外激进型投资者逢高短空，参考2601合约压力位4600-4650。 目前来看，PVC行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于PVC后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 恒泰期货指出，本周国内PVC计划检修企业减少，整体供应预期增加；需求端，下游制品企业仍维持低 位开工，订单暂无好转迹象，维持逢低采购，亚洲合同价格低于预期，出口存压；成本端尚存支撑，现 货基本面难以改善，PVC市场利好难寻，预计今日 ...