7 December 2025 | 8:12PM HKT Economics Research China: Three things in China Three quick highlights from China: n Pulse check on China activity: All four China PMIs (NBS manufacturing, NBS non-manufacturing, RatingDog manufacturing, and RatingDog Services) have released November data, and overall, they show soft activity for the month. However, the new export orders sub-index increased in all four PMIs, suggesting that October's export slowdown was likely temporary. We expect export growth to rebound from - ...

兴业基金分析表示，从中期视角来看，2026年有望延续上行行情。一是因为全球发生流动性危机的概率 目前不高，美联储依然处于降息周期;二是虽然科技泡沫的讨论一直都在，但科技行业上行周期还未结 束，科技龙头的基本面远未到见顶恶化阶段;三是从A股本身来看，政策面值得乐观看待，未来盈利对估 值的支撑明显。 临近年末，公募基金自购潮再度升温。近期，多家基金公司在11月自购旗下新基金。截至11月28日，11 月公募净申购权益类基金的金额达到2.1亿元，年内净申购金额突破45亿元，是去年同期的2倍有余。随 着2025年市场进入"收官战"，机构加速以"真金白银"入市，彰显对权益市场的信心。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Real Estate** sector, highlighting the current market dynamics and sentiment shifts within the industry [2][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment**: The property market is experiencing softened sentiment, particularly in the high-end housing segment, indicating potential instability despite previous recovery efforts [2][6]. 2. **Government Policy Impact**: The effectiveness of government policies aimed at improving living standards and housing demand is questioned, suggesting that these measures may not be sufficient to stabilize the new home market [2][6]. 3. **Investor Outlook**: Investors are advised to remain vigilant for potential supportive housing market policies that could act as catalysts for stock performance, especially during periods of low policy expectations [2][6]. 4. **Earnings Visibility**: Companies such as CRL, C&D, and Seazen are highlighted as key picks due to their strong fundamentals and higher earnings visibility compared to peers [3][6]. 5. **Home Price Trends**: Recent data indicates a decline in home prices in tier-1 cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which may improve affordability and rental yields, potentially leading to market stabilization [7][6]. 6. **Project Launch Strategies**: Developers are delaying project launches due to subdued sales momentum, with selective price adjustments expected to facilitate sales and capital recycling [7][6]. 7. **Regional Resilience**: Low-tier cities, particularly tier-3 cities in Fujian Province, are showing greater resilience compared to top-tier cities, emphasizing the importance of product positioning [7][6]. 8. **Market Recovery Expectations**: Beike has indicated a potential housing market turnaround by the end of 2026 or early 2027, with a projected normalized Gross Transaction Value (GTV) of RMB 15 trillion [7][6]. Additional Important Points 1. **Sell-Through Rates**: The sell-through rates of key projects launched by various developers are provided, indicating varying performance levels across different companies [15][16]. 2. **Valuation Metrics**: The report includes valuation metrics for several property developers, with target prices and upside potential highlighted for CR Land, C&D International, and Seazen [27][27]. 3. **Risks Identified**: Key risks to the outlook include the inability to maintain sales momentum, lower-than-expected margins, and uncertainties related to macroeconomic and property-specific policies [27][27]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China Real Estate sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Indian economy, particularly during the festive season, highlighting signs of recovery driven by domestic demand and policy support [1][9]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Consumption Trends**: - Services PMI decreased to 58.9 in October from 60.9 in September, influenced by festive holidays [2]. - Vehicle registrations surged approximately 25% year-on-year during the festive period, attributed to GST rate cuts and deep discounts [2]. - Retail sales during Diwali increased by 25% year-on-year to INR 6.05 trillion, with INR 5.4 trillion in goods and the remainder in services [2]. - E-commerce order volumes rose by 24% year-on-year during the festive season [2]. 2. **Investment Dynamics**: - GST collections reached INR 1.96 trillion in October, with a growth rate of 4.6% year-on-year, which adjusts to about 10% when accounting for revenue lost due to GST cuts [3]. - Manufacturing PMI improved to 59.2 in October, driven by new domestic orders [3]. - Central government capital spending was front-loaded, reaching INR 5.8 trillion, which is 51.8% of the budgeted target, growing by 40% year-on-year [3]. 3. **Export Performance**: - Goods exports remained steady at 6.7% year-on-year, but exports to the US fell by 20% month-on-month in September due to tariffs [4]. - Electronic exports grew over 50% year-on-year, while textiles and jewelry faced tariff impacts [4]. 4. **Economic Outlook**: - The improving trend in high-frequency growth indicators supports the expectation of domestic demand driving growth, with GDP growth projected at 7% year-on-year for the quarter ending September 2025 [9]. - There remains uncertainty regarding external demand, which could affect corporate confidence [9]. Additional Important Insights - **Retail and E-commerce Growth**: - The festive season saw record-breaking sales, with traditional markets contributing significantly to the total trade [78]. - Quick commerce platforms experienced a 120% year-on-year increase in order volumes, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards online shopping [78]. - **Consumer Sentiment**: - Trader and consumer confidence indices reached decade-high levels, suggesting a positive outlook for sustained consumption growth [78]. - **Premiumization Trend**: - There is a notable shift towards premium products, with significant growth in high-end electronics and luxury goods during the festive season [78]. - **Power Demand**: - Power demand declined by 6% year-on-year in October, influenced by weather and holiday factors [3]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Indian economy during the festive season.

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong rebound in the A-share market has restored investor confidence, with a significant upward movement observed after a period of uncertainty [1] Market Analysis - The market is at a critical juncture around the 3923-point level, with a closing at 3922 points indicating a potential breakout if it surpasses 3927 points, targeting approximately 3938 points. Conversely, a drop below 3912 points could lead to a retreat towards the 3900-point mark [3] - Despite a decrease in trading volume to 1.66 trillion, there are signs of positive sentiment as financial stocks showed strength towards the end of the trading day, indicating that funds are beginning to accumulate shares at lower prices. Northbound capital is also showing a warming trend, while domestic institutional selling pressure has lessened [3] - There are two main investment themes: one is the policy-supported sectors, such as Shenzhen state-owned enterprises and coal stocks, which are likely to maintain short-term momentum; the other is the recovery opportunities in oversold growth stocks, particularly in technology sectors like semiconductors and AI hardware, which may rebound quickly as market sentiment improves [3] Investment Strategy - Three potential scenarios for investment strategy are outlined: 1. If the market breaks above 3938 points with volume, increase positions to 60-70%, focusing on financial stocks and well-corrected tech leaders [4] 2. If the market fluctuates between 3912 and 3938 points, maintain a 50% position, targeting sectors with strong earnings support like coal and state-owned enterprises [4] 3. If the market falls below 3900 points, reduce positions to below 30% and wait for more stable opportunities [4] - The market is expected to experience volatility, and long-term investment success relies on maintaining quality stocks during fluctuations and seizing opportunities during periods of fear [4]

Chinese stocks are set for their best run of monthly gains since 2018, driven by optimism over AI, easing geopolitical tensions, and expectations of policy support https://t.co/ATVrE9Md5U ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and its various sectors, including **fixed asset investment (FAI)**, **industrial production**, **retail sales**, and the **property market**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Growth Momentum Weakening**: - Domestic activity weakened across the board in August, with overall FAI growth declining by **6.3% YoY**. This decline was attributed to weakened infrastructure and manufacturing investment, partly due to the anti-involution campaign [3][4][84]. 2. **Retail Sales and Consumption**: - Retail sales growth edged down to **3.4% YoY** in August, primarily due to a slowdown in sales of products with trade-in subsidies. The growth in household consumption is expected to decelerate further due to soft household income growth and a high base effect from previous subsidies [3][4][108]. 3. **Industrial Production**: - Industrial production growth cooled to **5.2% YoY** in August, down from **5.7% YoY** in July. This was attributed to weak domestic growth momentum and softer export shipments [3][4][94]. 4. **Property Market Decline**: - The property downturn deepened, with property sales growth declining by **10.6% YoY** in August and new starts down by **20.3% YoY**. The average housing prices in 70 cities continued to decline, indicating ongoing weakness in the property sector [3][4][69]. 5. **Inflation Trends**: - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell into deflation at **-0.4% YoY**, driven by weak food prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI) narrowed its contraction to **-2.9% YoY** [3][4][123]. 6. **Need for Policy Support**: - Additional policy support is deemed necessary due to the softening activity in Q3 and expected weakness in Q4. The government is considering measures such as bringing forward local government debt quotas and increasing fiscal support [5][6]. 7. **Future Economic Outlook**: - Q3 GDP growth is expected to be between **4.5-5% YoY**, with further deceleration anticipated in Q4. Full-year growth for 2025 is projected to average **4.7%** [4][6]. Other Important Insights 1. **Credit Growth**: - Total social financing (TSF) credit growth edged down to **8.8% YoY** in August, reflecting weak bank loans and government bonds. New bank lending remained weak, indicating a cautious lending environment [3][4][137]. 2. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - Infrastructure investment is expected to improve slightly, but manufacturing investment may continue to slow due to weak demand and profit margins. The government plans to support infrastructure spending through special bonds [4][84]. 3. **Consumer Behavior**: - Households are accumulating excess savings, indicating cautious sentiment and subdued spending intentions. The household savings rate remains above pre-COVID levels [3][4][108]. 4. **High-Frequency Data**: - Recent high-frequency data showed a rebound in property sales in early September, suggesting some short-term recovery, although overall trends remain negative [3][4][39]. 5. **Policy Measures**: - The government is expected to implement modest fiscal support measures, potentially increasing broad fiscal support by around **0.5% of GDP** [6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Chinese economy and the anticipated challenges and policy responses.

Policy & Regulation - The Trump administration has implemented measures to weaken tax and policy support for clean energy [1] Industry Outlook - The solar industry maintains a positive outlook despite policy challenges [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese labor market** and its dynamics, focusing on hiring trends across various sectors including **services**, **manufacturing**, and **construction** [2][3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Softer Labor Market**: The UBS Evidence Lab Labour Market Business Survey indicates a slight softening in hiring momentum in Q2 2025, with 41% of firms increasing hiring YoY and 37% QoQ, down from 43% and 42% in Q1 2025 respectively [2][7]. 2. **Sector-Specific Trends**: - **Service Sector**: Hiring intentions and salary growth have weakened, with 39% of service firms reporting increased hiring YoY, down from 46% in Q1 [12][22]. - **Manufacturing Sector**: Continued challenges from weak profitability and low capacity utilization have led to a decline in hiring momentum [12][22]. - **Construction Sector**: Surprisingly, hiring in the construction sector has picked up, likely due to robust infrastructure investment [12][22]. - **Exporters**: 41% of surveyed exporters reported increased hiring YoY, outperforming the average of 35% for all manufacturing firms, attributed to resilient export growth [13][17]. 3. **Policy Support**: 75% of firms received some form of policy support in Q2, with government subsidies for hiring college graduates being the most common. This support is particularly strong for exporters, with 91% receiving assistance [4][17]. 4. **Mixed Macro Picture**: The official unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in Q2 from 5.3% in Q1, but other indicators suggest ongoing pressures in the labor market, including a decline in household income growth and cautious consumer sentiment [5][25]. 5. **Future Outlook**: Expectations for Q3 indicate a continuation of the softening trend in the labor market, particularly in the service sector, while manufacturing and construction sectors show slightly more optimism [22][31]. Additional Important Insights - **Wage Growth**: There is a notable moderation in wage growth, with fewer firms reporting increases in monthly salaries compared to previous quarters [7][10]. - **Consumer Confidence**: Despite stable consumption growth, consumer confidence remains below pre-COVID levels, indicating a cautious outlook among households [30][40]. - **Government Measures**: The government has introduced additional measures to stabilize the labor market, including increased unemployment insurance refunds and subsidies for hiring young people [17][31]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and outlook of the Chinese labor market, sector-specific trends, and the impact of government policies.

Copper and potash have been included in the US Geological Survey’s draft list of critical minerals — a further step in clearing the way for broader policy support https://t.co/QgxC3Cpd9p ...