Online Order A SECTORAL ANALYSIS THE EVOLUTION OF QUICK COMMERCE IN INDIA Indian retail has undergone a dramatic shift over the past few years. Not too long ago, urban Indians stocked up on groceries and daily essentials with weekly or monthly market trips. Today, many households, with a few taps on a smartphone can order groceries, medicines or snacks at their doorstep within minutes. This change has been driven by widespread internet and smartphone adoption in India. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a huge ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **global tyre industry**, particularly major players including **Michelin**, **Bridgestone**, **Continental**, and **Pirelli** [2][19][26]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Positive Outlook for 2026**: The tyre sector is expected to benefit from a favorable setup, with conservative growth expectations and a shift from tariff shocks to a new reality that favors Tier 1 manufacturers [4][21]. - **Valuation Upgrades**: - **Michelin** is maintained as the top pick with a target price of **€38**, representing a **34% upside**. The company is expected to achieve margin expansion driven by premiumisation and restructuring [10][19]. - **Pirelli** is upgraded to **Outperform** with a target price of **€7**, indicating a **20% upside**. The resolution of governance issues is anticipated to unlock significant value [11][51]. - **Bridgestone** is also rated **Outperform** with a target price of **¥4,300**, reflecting a **22% upside** due to expected revenue growth from new technology [12][45]. - **Continental** is upgraded to **Market-Perform** with a target price of **€66**, indicating a **3% downside**. The valuation appears fair, but risks remain regarding the ContiTech sale [13][61]. Financial Performance and Expectations - **2025 Performance**: - Continental and Bridgestone delivered over **30% Total Shareholder Return (TSR)**, while Michelin underperformed with a **-37%** return due to weak commercial markets [3][20]. - **2026 Projections**: - The sector is expected to see EBIT margins increase year-over-year for the first time since 2021, with cash returns anticipated to rise across all players [4][21][27]. - Michelin's adjusted EBIT margin is projected to be **12.0%** in 2026, ahead of consensus estimates [31][36]. Risks and Opportunities - **Risks**: - Potential slower recovery in weak segments, governance disputes, and the risk of disappointing sales prices for assets like ContiTech [35][60]. - **Opportunities**: - The premiumisation trend in the tyre market is expected to continue, providing growth potential for companies like Michelin and Pirelli [6][50]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The tyre industry is characterized by high EBIT margins (15-20%) and a significant portion of revenue coming from the aftermarket, which limits cyclicality [6][23]. - **Valuation Methodology**: The report suggests that the market will sustain higher multiples for the sector, with **8-9x EBIT** being justified based on historical performance [5][22]. Conclusion - The tyre industry is positioned for growth in 2026, with key players like Michelin, Bridgestone, and Pirelli expected to benefit from structural tailwinds and improved financial performance. The resolution of governance issues and continued premiumisation will be critical for unlocking value in the sector [19][50].

Core Insights - The value of Irish whiskey exports fell by 5% in 2025, totaling €930 million ($1.1 billion), primarily due to a challenging trading environment in the US [1] - The overall value of Irish food, drink, and horticulture exports grew by 12% to €19 billion, marking a significant performance despite market volatility [6] Group 1: Irish Whiskey Market - Irish whiskey exports accounted for 45% of total drinks shipments from Ireland [1] - The US market saw a 5% decline in Irish whiskey exports, influenced by stockpiling in anticipation of tariffs and a 12% devaluation of the US dollar [2] - In the EU, Germany was the largest market for Irish whiskey, with stable exports to France and a slight dip in sales to Poland and the UK [3] Group 2: Other Spirits and Alcoholic Beverages - Exports of Irish gin decreased by 14% in value as markets rationalized brand offerings [3] - Both gin and whiskey faced challenges due to US trading uncertainties and a slowdown in premiumisation driven by consumer spending pressures [4] - Irish cream liqueurs saw a 10% increase in exports to €430 million, benefiting from premiumisation trends in the UK and North America [4] Group 3: Irish Beer Exports - The value of Irish beer exports increased by 7% to approximately €350 million, with a 14% decline in exports to the UK and a 21% increase to EU markets [5] - France emerged as the largest market for Irish beer products in value terms [5] Group 4: Overall Export Performance - Total Irish drinks exports value increased by 2% in 2025 to €2 billion, with the EU, UK, and US comprising 81% of the exports [5] - Bord Bia anticipates a transitional year for drinks in 2026, with positive indicators in the US suggesting improved market sellout rates and lower inventories [6]

Core Insights - Indian subsidiaries of multinational corporations (MNCs) are significantly contributing to their parent companies' revenues, with ITC accounting for over 25% of BAT Plc's revenue, Hindustan Unilever contributing 10-11% to Unilever's turnover, Whirlpool of India around 5% to Whirlpool Corp, and Colgate India 4-5% to its parent's global revenue [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance and Valuation - Indian arms of consumer MNCs command higher valuations compared to their parents, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios at a premium of 2 to 4 times [2] - The market capitalizations of Indian subsidiaries as a percentage of their parents are also higher, indicating strong investor expectations [2][22] - Stock performance of Indian subsidiaries has outpaced that of their parent companies over a 10-year period, reflecting superior shareholder returns [5] Group 2: Growth Drivers in India - India's growth in the consumer products sector is driven by a youthful working-age population, rising real incomes, and rapid urbanization [8] - Real disposable income per capita is projected to rise by around 6%, positioning India for the highest per capita income growth among leading consumer product markets in the next five years [10] - The emergence of digital channels, including quick commerce and e-commerce, has significantly accelerated growth for consumer MNCs in India, with Q-commerce platforms accounting for approximately 35% of FMCG e-commerce sales [21] Group 3: Structural Changes and Opportunities - Progressive liberalization and reforms have made it easier for global companies to operate in India, enhancing the ease of doing business [16][17] - The introduction of simplified tax structures and improved infrastructure has allowed MNCs to adapt their products and pricing strategies more effectively to the local market [18] - Despite rapid growth, India remains an underpenetrated market in many sectors, with significant opportunities for premiumization and deeper category penetration [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in 3Q25, with adjusted net income exceeding expectations due to smart EV breakeven, investment disposal gains, and other income, while traditional business faces challenges from rising memory prices and IoT competition [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - 3Q25 revenue reached RMB113 billion, representing a 22% year-over-year increase, with gross profit margin (GPM) at 22.9%, up 0.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1] - Adjusted net income for 3Q25 was RMB11.3 billion, beating expectations by 8-13%, primarily driven by investment disposal gains and other income [1] - The smart EV segment achieved its first profitable quarter with an operational profit of RMB0.7 billion and profit per vehicle exceeding RMB6,000 [2] Group 2: Business Segments - Smart EV revenue surged by 36.4% quarter-over-quarter to RMB29 billion, driven by the YU7 SUV, although GPM slightly declined to 25.5% due to initial ramp-up costs [2] - Smartphone revenue decreased by 3% year-over-year to RMB46 billion, with an average selling price (ASP) decline of 4% year-over-year [3] - IoT revenue declined by 29% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to a 64.8% drop in smart large home appliance sales, but GPM improved to 23.9% [4] - Internet services revenue grew by 11% year-over-year to RMB9.4 billion, driven by a 17% increase in advertising revenue, with GPM at 76.9% [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its 2025 smartphone shipment target from 170 million-180 million to 160 million-170 million due to memory price pressures [3] - The company expects internet services revenue to reach RMB37 billion in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth [5] - The new target price for the company remains at HK$71.14, with a reiteration of the BUY rating [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company has lowered its revenue and adjusted net income forecasts for Q3 2025 due to pressures in smartphone shipments, competition, and subsidy tightening, but maintains a positive outlook on mid-term growth sustainability [1]. Group 1: Smart EV Business - The elevated YU7 SUV mix is expected to improve the product mix and raise the average selling price (ASP) to RMB 260,000, with the smart EV segment projected to achieve its first profitable quarter with a GAAP net profit of RMB 700-800 million [2]. - Xiaomi's limited-time subsidy program of up to RMB 15,000 for locked orders is seen as a strategic move to align with peers amid government tax benefit reductions, although potential profit erosion from this policy is viewed as manageable [2]. Group 2: Smartphone Market - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments reached 43.5 million units in Q3 2025, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase, with a decline in shipments in China attributed to subsidy tightening and a lack of new products [4]. - The company has adjusted its gross profit margin (GPM) forecasts for smartphones downward by 0.3-0.6 percentage points for 2025-2027 due to anticipated upward pressure on DRAM and NAND prices [4]. - Premiumization efforts are expected to help Xiaomi manage pricing pressures, with a 30% increase in cumulative shipments of the Xiaomi 17 series compared to the previous generation, and over 80% of these shipments attributed to Pro versions [5].

Core Viewpoint - LG Electronics India's IPO of Rs 11,607 crore is not merely a fundraising effort but a strategic move to enhance its market position and prepare for future growth in an underpenetrated market [1][3]. Company Overview - The IPO, priced between Rs 1,080 and Rs 1,140 per share, could value the company at approximately Rs 77,400 crore, making it one of India's most valuable consumer durables firms [4]. - The offering is an offer-for-sale by the South Korean parent company, reducing its stake by 15 percent [5]. - LG ranks as the second-largest appliance and electronics company in India, following Samsung, and is investing in expansion with a $600 million (around Rs 5,000 crore) plant in Andhra Pradesh [6]. Financial Position - The company is described as cash-rich, debt-free, and generating free cash flow year-on-year, with plans to utilize its own accruals for capacity expansion [7]. - For FY25, LG India reported a net profit of Rs 2,203 crore on a revenue of Rs 24,631 crore [9]. Market Dynamics - Recent GST rate cuts on televisions, air conditioners, and dishwashers have improved affordability and driven premiumization in the market [8]. - The sector is projected to grow at an annual rate of 12 percent over the next five years, supported by rising incomes, urbanization, and deeper appliance penetration [10]. Growth Prospects - The company expects continued momentum through the Diwali and wedding seasons, with significant growth potential due to low penetration across various product categories [9].

Core Insights - The Indian snack market is experiencing significant growth due to a convergence of demographics, economics, changing consumer behavior, and a shift towards organized retail [1][21] - The market is evolving from traditional snacks to a diverse range of products, including protein bars, baked snacks, and health-focused options, reflecting changing consumer preferences [3][21] Demographics and Consumer Behavior - Rapid urbanization in India is reshaping eating habits, with a growing demand for convenient, ready-to-eat snacks as dual-income households and nuclear families become more common [2][21] - Disposable incomes are rising across India, including Tier 2, 3, and rural areas, leading consumers to opt for premium and branded snack options [5][21] - Over 50% of India's population is under 30, creating a favorable market for innovative and adventurous food choices [6][21] Market Dynamics - The shift from an informal to an organized sector is gaining momentum, with branded snacks preferred for their quality, safety, and distribution advantages [8][21] - Low-unit price packs (Rs 1, Rs 5, Rs 10) have made branded snacks more accessible, particularly in price-sensitive rural markets [9][21] Health and Premiumization Trends - There is a growing demand for healthier snacks, with 55% of Indians preferring preservative-free options and 52% choosing eco-conscious packaging [11][21] - Consumers are increasingly willing to pay more for premium snacks, viewing them as lifestyle statements [12][13][21] Investment and Financial Interest - The Indian snack sector is attracting significant investment from multinationals and private equity firms, indicating its profitability and scalability [14][21] - Recent high-profile deals, such as Temasek's investment in Haldiram's and interest from General Mills in Balaji Wafers, highlight the sector's appeal [14][21] Market Growth Projections - India's snacks market was valued at ₹42,695 crore in 2023 and is projected to exceed ₹95,522 crore by 2032, with a CAGR of nearly 10% [16][21] - Segments like extruded snacks and health-focused variants are expected to grow even faster, supported by increased retail access and digitization [17][21] Challenges and Competition - Price sensitivity remains a critical issue, with small price hikes potentially leading to consumer backlash [19][22] - The market faces competition from the informal sector, particularly in rural areas, where local preferences may favor traditional snack makers [19][22] - Regulatory challenges around food safety and labeling standards need careful navigation, especially for smaller brands scaling up [19][22]

Core Insights - Marc Busain, President of HEINEKEN Americas, will step down effective October 1, 2025, to become CEO of LIPTON Teas and Infusions [1] - Busain has had a successful 30-year career at HEINEKEN, with the last 10 years as President of the Americas, where he significantly contributed to the company's growth [2][3] Company Performance - Under Busain's leadership, the Americas region doubled its revenue, operating profit, and net profit over the past decade [3] - Key markets such as Mexico and Brazil became major profit contributors, with Brazil emerging as the largest market for Heineken® and Amstel [3] Strategic Contributions - Busain played a crucial role in the acquisition and integration of Brazil Kirin, enhancing HEINEKEN's market position in Brazil [3] - He led transformations in supply chain efficiency, revenue management, and the implementation of AI-driven sales tools [3] - Premiumisation and the expansion of Heineken® 0.0 were significant growth strategies during his tenure [3] Leadership and Culture - HEINEKEN's Chairman expressed gratitude for Busain's contributions, highlighting his commitment to building strong teams and mentoring future leaders [4] - Busain cultivated a winning culture in the Americas, emphasizing trust and empowerment [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **global tyre industry**, particularly the competitive landscape and investment opportunities within the sector [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights - **Positive Outlook for Tier 1 Tyremakers**: The analysis is bullish on Tier 1 tyre manufacturers, highlighting their high margins and discounted valuations, predicting prosperity over the next decade [2][3]. - **Michelin as Top Pick**: Michelin is identified as the top investment pick with an expected upside of **28%** [2][4]. - **High EBIT Margins**: The tyre industry generates high EBIT margins (~**15%**) that are expected to expand over time, with a majority of revenue coming from the aftermarket rather than OEMs [3][4]. - **Premiumisation**: The trend of premiumisation is crucial for growth, with significant returns on innovation and R&D investments noted. The increasing penetration of EVs, SUVs, and luxury cars is expected to drive positive mix shifts [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - **Market Stability**: Despite the rise of low-cost Chinese competitors, Tier 1 companies maintain approximately **50%** of the market share in value terms, indicating stability in their market position [14]. - **Product Innovation**: Tier 1 companies have successfully limited price competition through product innovation, focusing on quality segments where consumers are willing to pay a premium [5][14]. - **Regional Dynamics**: Michelin is noted to have a larger presence in North America compared to Europe, while Bridgestone has a stronger focus on the APAC region [33]. Financial Metrics - **Revenue and Growth**: The global tyre industry is valued at approximately **$200 billion**, with year-to-year revenue fluctuations largely driven by raw material prices [11]. - **Cash Generation**: Tyre companies convert **40-60%** of annual EBITDA into free cash flow, positioning the sector favorably compared to other industrial sectors [80]. - **Valuation Multiples**: Michelin and Bridgestone are valued at higher multiples due to their strong margins and growth potential, while Pirelli and Continental are rated as Market-Perform due to governance and valuation concerns [8][10]. Investment Implications - **Stock Ratings**: Michelin and Bridgestone are rated as Outperform, while Continental and Pirelli are rated as Market-Perform [8][10]. - **Capital Allocation**: Michelin has balanced its cash use between M&A, deleveraging, and increasing capital returns through dividends and buybacks, indicating a strong capital allocation strategy [88]. Risks and Challenges - **Competitive Threats**: Potential risks include increased competition from low-cost Chinese manufacturers and the impact of economic downturns on premium tyre markets [114][116]. - **Market Dynamics**: The cyclical nature of the Truck & Bus market poses challenges, with lower margins compared to other segments [75][79]. Conclusion - The global tyre industry presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in Tier 1 manufacturers like Michelin and Bridgestone, driven by premiumisation and innovation. However, investors should remain cautious of competitive threats and market volatility.