As the risk pyramid below shows, the answer is that stocks are riskier. After all, if I have $100 in stocks and $100 in cash, my $100 in cash will still be $100 in cash afterLeo Nelissen is a long-term investor and macro-focused strategist with a passion for dividend growth, high-quality compounders, and structural investment themes. He combines big-picture macro analysis with bottom-up stock research to identify durable businesses with strong cash-flow potential. Leo also writes for Main Street Alpha, wher ...

Key Takeaways MO saw a 10% domestic cigarette volume decline in 2025 amid illicit e-vapor growth and income pressures.MO's higher pricing and lower per-unit settlement charges lifted smokeable OCI despite lower shipments.MO's adjusted smokeable OCI margin expanded 1.8 pts to 63.4% in 2025, showing pricing partly offsets volumes.Altria Group, Inc. (MO) continues to navigate a challenging landscape in the smokeable products segment, where significant volume declines are being tested against its pricing power. ...

Core Insights - Several prominent investors have increased their holdings in Procter & Gamble Co. (PG), indicating renewed confidence in the company's defensive earnings profile and global brand strength [1] Investor Activity - AQR Capital Management LLC, led by Cliff Asness, made the largest incremental purchase, increasing shares by 1,385,607 to a total of 2,483,354, valued at $0.38 billion, reflecting strong quantitative appeal due to PG's earnings stability and improving margins [2] - Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC, under Jeremy Grantham, added 137,841 shares to reach 548,025 shares, valued at $0.08 billion, reinforcing long-term confidence in PG as a defensive compounder [3] - Fisher Asset Management, led by Ken Fisher, increased its position by 40,941 shares to 11,008,454 shares, valued at $1.69 billion, underscoring confidence in PG's global scale and consistent organic growth [3] - Bridgewater Associates, LP, managed by Ray Dalio, modestly increased its exposure by 8,546 shares to 141,455 shares, valued at $0.02 billion, aligning with a macro-defensive allocation strategy [4] - Fundsmith LLP, under Terry Smith, added 4,760 shares to reach 4,577,040 shares, valued at $0.70 billion, reinforcing conviction in PG as a high-quality business with strong brands [4] - Gotham Asset Management, LLC, led by Joel Greenblatt, increased its position by 3,921 shares to 79,456 shares, valued at $0.01 billion, consistent with a quantitative value approach [5] - GAMCO Investors, Inc., managed by Mario Gabelli, made a small adjustment of 140 shares to 59,310 shares, valued at $0.01 billion, signaling continued confidence in PG's brand equity [6] - Maverick Capital Ltd, led by Lee Ainslie, initiated a new position with 24,110 shares, indicating emerging conviction in PG's defensive growth characteristics [6] Overall Market Sentiment - The buying activity in Procter & Gamble this quarter reflects accumulation across various investor types, reinforcing PG's status as a premier consumer staples compounder with pricing power and durable cash flows suitable for uncertain economic conditions [7]

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis of several food companies, including JM Smucker Company, Conagra Brands Inc, Hormel Foods Corporation, and Post Holdings Inc, highlighting their performance and market trends [1] Group 2 - JM Smucker Company is noted for its strong brand portfolio and recent financial performance, which may present investment opportunities [1] - Conagra Brands Inc is discussed in terms of its strategic initiatives and market positioning, indicating potential growth areas [1] - Hormel Foods Corporation's focus on innovation and product diversification is emphasized, suggesting resilience in a competitive market [1] - Post Holdings Inc is analyzed for its recent acquisitions and market expansion efforts, which could enhance its market share [1]

Core Insights - The distinction between value and price is crucial, especially during financially stressful times for consumers, who may prioritize immediate needs over long-term value [1] - Pricing power is identified as a key factor in evaluating a business's strength, with the ability to raise prices without losing customers indicating a robust business model [2] Company Strategy - Target is adopting a strategy that emphasizes value perception rather than competing solely on price, allowing Walmart to maintain its low-price leadership [5] - The new CEO of Target, Michael Fiddelke, emphasizes a design-led approach, focusing on unique and stylish product assortments that provide incredible value, which is central to the company's differentiation and future growth [6] - Target aims to create a shopping experience that is distinctly its own, believing that a unique assortment is essential for maintaining merchandising authority with customers [7]

Core Insights - The Clorox Company is facing a challenging consumer environment with increased value-seeking behavior impacting pricing power [1] - Category growth has stabilized but remains below historical levels, with heightened competition for consumer spending [1] - Consumers are shifting towards smaller pack sizes and trade-down options due to financial pressures across income segments [1] Pricing Strategy - Clorox is utilizing price pack architecture and targeted promotions to maintain brand equity while ensuring affordability [2] - The company is expanding smaller-size offerings in brands like Brita, Food, and Kingsford, and promoting dilutable cleaners to appeal to cost-conscious consumers [2] Consumer Demand Trends - There is strong demand for larger, value-oriented formats in Club and eCommerce channels, indicating a polarized consumer response rather than outright resistance to pricing [3] - Clorox continues to identify areas where consumers are willing to pay a premium, particularly for convenience and time-saving products [3] Margin Pressure - In Q1 of fiscal 2026, Clorox's gross margin fell by 410 basis points due to lower fixed-cost absorption and increased manufacturing and logistics costs [4] - Management anticipates fiscal 2026 gross margin to trend towards the lower end of the guidance range of 50 to 100 basis points, influenced by ERP-related challenges and tariff uncertainties [5] Elasticity and Brand Health - Consumer elasticity is tightening, but Clorox's diversified approach balancing affordability and premium convenience positions the company favorably compared to simple price increases [6] - Brand health metrics such as household penetration and loyalty remain stable, suggesting selective resilience in pricing power despite a constrained consumer landscape [6] Stock Performance - Over the past six months, Clorox's shares have decreased by 16.7%, compared to an industry decline of 11.9% [7] - Clorox trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.15X, which is lower than the industry average of 17.73X [9] Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Clorox's fiscal 2026 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 24%, while fiscal 2027 earnings are expected to rise by 15.8% [10]

Core Insights - American Express has established a dominant position in the premium credit card market, resulting in a total return of 238% over the past five years, significantly outperforming the overall market [1] - The company aims for long-term revenue growth at a compound annual rate of 10%, with diluted earnings per share expected to rise at a mid-teens percentage annually [3] Growth Strategy - The growth strategy focuses on acquiring more card members, with a 36% increase in active cards from Q3 2020 to Q3 2025, totaling 151.2 million active cards [4] - Engagement with younger consumers, particularly Gen Z and millennials, is a positive trend for the company [4] - Increasing cardholder spending is another key factor, with average spending per card rising to $6,387 in Q3, a 58% increase over the last five years [5] Pricing Power - American Express has demonstrated pricing power by raising annual fees on its cards, with the Gold card fee increasing to $325 and the Platinum card fee to $895 [6] - The average fee per card has surged by 72% since Q3 2020, indicating strong pricing power [6][7] Brand Strength - The company's brand strength plays a crucial role in its success, as consumers perceive owning an American Express card as a status symbol [8]

Company Insights - Nike is undergoing a turnaround under new CEO Elliott Hill, focusing on innovation and brand strength, with expectations for tangible progress by 2026 [1][2][3] - The company faces a $1.5 billion tariff cost but is expected to manage this through effective sourcing and pricing strategies, leveraging its strong brand portfolio [6][7] - The Cortez shoe, a vintage model, is gaining interest, indicating a potential market for retro products alongside innovative offerings [8] Industry Trends - Major sporting events like the Winter Olympics and the World Cup are anticipated to drive consumer interest and sales in the athletic sector, benefiting companies like Nike [9][10][12] - The last World Cup saw a 25% increase in Nike's footwear sales, highlighting the significant revenue potential associated with such events [12] - The upcoming World Cup in the US presents a unique opportunity for the industry, with expectations for increased marketing efforts from Nike [13] Retail Performance - TJX has demonstrated strong performance with a 6% comparable store sales increase, attributed to its experienced management team and effective vendor relationships [4][5] - The company's focus on value and a "treasure hunt" shopping experience continues to resonate with consumers, contributing to its success in both apparel and home categories [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that despite some negative economic signals, the economy is in an "early cycle" environment, indicating potential for growth ahead [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Earnings revisions for the S&P 500 have rebounded from a low of negative 25% in April to around positive 15%, signaling improved business confidence [2]. - Wage growth has slowed to a three-month moving average of 4.1% year-over-year, down from 6.7% in July 2022, providing room for profit margin expansion [2][3]. - Consumer demand is expected to accelerate as companies gain higher pricing power, allowing them to raise prices without significantly affecting demand [3]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, with two cuts anticipated in 2026, aimed at stimulating economic activity [3]. Market Projections - The S&P 500 is projected to rise by 14% in 2026, reaching 7,800 [4]. Investment Recommendations - Morgan Stanley recommends an "overweight" position on consumer discretionary stocks, which are expected to perform well during economic recoveries [5]. - Small-cap stocks are also expected to do well due to their cyclical nature and sensitivity to falling interest rates, with rising earnings growth noted in the Russell 2000 index [6]. - The financial sector is viewed positively, with expectations of improved loan growth benefiting banks [7]. Investment Vehicles - Investors can gain exposure to recommended sectors through ETFs such as the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), and iShares U.S. Financials ETF (IYF) [8].

Core Insights - lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is facing a cautious consumer environment in fiscal 2025, raising concerns about its pricing power amidst softer spending [1] - The U.S. market is under pressure, with key casual franchises experiencing stagnation, leading to increased markdowns and reduced product margins [2] - To counteract rising costs, lululemon is implementing modest price increases on select styles while carefully assessing price elasticity [3][4] Pricing Strategy and Market Position - Pricing is one of several strategies being employed, including vendor negotiations and supply-chain efficiencies, to manage costs and protect margins [4] - The company anticipates a 220-basis-point hit to gross margin in fiscal 2025 due to tariffs, with a projected $320 million impact in fiscal 2026 [4] - The effectiveness of lululemon's pricing power will depend on its ability to innovate and refresh its product assortment, with plans to increase new styles from 23% to 35% by next spring [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Crocs Inc. (CROX) and Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) are also leveraging pricing power to maintain margins in a value-driven market [7] - Crocs is managing pricing based on brand strength and market dynamics, while also focusing on innovation to support higher average selling prices [8] - Ralph Lauren has demonstrated resilient pricing power through consistent average unit retail gains and effective brand elevation strategies [9] Financial Performance and Outlook - lululemon's shares have increased by 11.7% over the past three months, contrasting with a 1.1% decline in the industry [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates an 11.8% year-over-year decline in fiscal 2025 earnings, with a slight growth of 1.2% expected in fiscal 2026 [13] - Current forward price-to-earnings ratio for LULU is 14.04X, lower than the industry average of 16.22X [12]