Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 0.68%. Domestic economy has resilience, and the prosperity of new energy, semiconductor, and photovoltaic industries has increased; overseas uncertainties remain high, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts in the later period [6]. - In terms of supply, in 2025, the RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but the risk of new policy disturbances still exists. In September, China's nickel imports were large, and the output of nickel - iron was at a low level; Indonesia's nickel - iron production remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and the output increased slightly month - on - month. In September 2025, the total output of domestic refined nickel was 36,795 tons, a slight increase month - on - month [6]. - In terms of demand, in September, the stainless - steel market continued to recover. It is expected that in October, stainless - steel production will still be restricted, with a moderate rebound. The domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high. The operating rate of large stainless - steel manufacturers has rebounded, and the inventory decreased first and then increased. In the new - energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials increased significantly from August to September [6]. - In terms of inventory, last week, LME nickel inventory increased month - on - month, and SHFE inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The social inventory of refined nickel was 47,505 tons, an increase from the previous week [6]. - In the short term, the RKAB approval quota in 2025 provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but the risk of new policy disturbances still exists. Trade disputes have an emotional impact on the market. Returning to the fundamentals, imported nickel remains at a high level, and inventory has increased. Indonesian domestic policies have disturbances to supply, but have not actually affected it yet. The output of downstream stainless - steel has improved marginally after falling from a high level, and the inventory has also improved marginally. The nickel price will fluctuate within a range as a whole [6]. - The strategy is to conduct short - term trading on the SHFE nickel 2512 contract. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options. Later, pay attention to changes in the mine end, stainless - steel output, trade disputes, and Indonesian exports [6]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (red - soil nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [8]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - The report shows figures of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 - month, in US dollars per ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main - contract basis (in yuan per ton) [10]. 3. Supply Side Nickel Ore - In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly, with imports of 36.5763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. In August and September 2025, imports were 634,670 tons and 611,440 tons respectively, showing a seasonal increase [18]. Nickel Pig Iron - In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron output was 1.5138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In September 2025, the output was 156,500 tons, a slight increase month - on - month. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron output was 296,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%. In September 2025, the output was 21,700 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and still at a low level [21]. - In August and September 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 874,000 tons and 1.085 million tons respectively, showing a significant month - on - month increase. In September 2025, the nickel - pig - iron inventory was 19,900 tons, remaining stable [25]. Refined Nickel - With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, in 2024, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand. In September 2025, the total domestic refined - nickel output was 36,795 tons. From July to August 2025, the apparent consumption was 29,883.05 tons and 37,551.45 tons respectively [28]. - In September 2025, China's nickel imports were 278,600 tons, at a high level; exports were 17,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [31]. Intermediate Products - According to MYSTEEL research statistics, in September 2025, the output of Indonesia's MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) was 41,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [37]. - The growth rate of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte output has been relatively under pressure this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. In August and September 2025, the output was 20,300 tons and 21,300 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned production capacities for intermediate products from 2025 to 2027 [43]. - In September 2025, the output of nickel sulfate was 39,045.4 tons, an increase month - on - month. From August to September 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 30,292 tons and 29,533 tons respectively [47]. 4. Demand Side Stainless - Steel Demand - In 2024, the release of stainless - steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 sample stainless - steel enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43%. In September 2025, the stainless - steel output was 3.4267 million tons, showing an increase after falling from a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,005,282 tons, an increase month - on - month [54]. Cathode Material Demand - In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. From the perspective of the structure of power batteries, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20% in terms of both output and installed capacity. It is expected that in 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand will still have inertia. In September 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 75,900 tons, continuing to rebound from a low level [59]. 5. Inventory Side Social and Bonded - Area Inventory - As of October 17, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 47,505 tons, an increase from the previous week [64]. Exchange Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 250,476 tons, a slight increase month - on - month. As of October 23, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 26,881 tons, a slight increase month - on - month [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro**: In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates, and a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [8]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota for nickel ore provides sufficient raw material for smelters, but there is uncertainty about whether the quota in Indonesia can increase as scheduled. In April 2025, China's ferronickel production decreased slightly, while Indonesia's ferronickel production continued to decline from a high level. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises increased slightly, and the output in March increased slightly month - on - month. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel production was 36,450 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: In March, the demand for stainless steel recovered, but the domestic stainless steel inventory was still high, exceeding 1 million tons among 78 sample enterprises. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries declined, and the output of ternary materials rebounded from a low level in March. In April, demand was expected to be affected by trade disputes [8]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, as did the SHFE inventory. The social inventory of refined nickel was 42,806 tons, a decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the RKAB approval quota in 2025 provides sufficient raw materials for smelters. However, there is uncertainty about the increase of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, and policy risks remain. The Indonesian government has raised the privilege use fee for nickel resources, increasing supply - side costs. Recently, macro - trade frictions have greatly affected demand expectations, and Shanghai nickel will fluctuate [8]. - **Strategy**: Due to the repeated macro - trade dispute policies in the short term, short - term trading is recommended for the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mine end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产业链结构 (Industrial Chain Structure) - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and their downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [10] 3.2期现市场 (Spot and Futures Markets) - The report presents the LME nickel premium and discount (spot/3 months, in US dollars per ton) and the SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (in yuan per ton) [12] 3.3供应端 (Supply Side) - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore declined significantly. In December 2024, China imported 36.5763 million tons of nickel ore, a 21.7% year - on - year decrease. In January, February, and March 2025, imports were 911,900 tons, 1.146 million tons, and 1.535 million tons respectively [20]. - **Nickel Pig Iron**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel production was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In March 2025, the output was 152,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase in supply. In 2024, domestic ferronickel production was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In April 2025, the output was 21,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease in supply. From January to March 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 929,000 tons, 909,000 tons, and 1.013 million tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.4%, 23.4%, and 60% respectively. In March 2025, the nickel pig iron inventory was 19,800 tons [23][26]. - **Refined Nickel**: With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand in 2024. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel production was 36,450 tons, and the apparent consumption in March 2025 was 29,837.1 tons [31]. - **Nickel Imports and Exports**: From January to March 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, and 219,000 tons respectively, showing a decline from a high level. From January to February 2025, China's exports were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, and 16,000 tons respectively [34]. 3.4中间品 (Intermediate Products) - **Wet - Process Intermediates**: According to MYSTEEL research, in March 2025, the output of Indonesian MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) was 37,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase [39]. - **High - Grade Nickel Matte**: The growth rate of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production was relatively under pressure this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In January, February, and March 2025, the output was 26,300 tons, 21,200 tons, and 16,700 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned production capacities for intermediate products from 2025 to 2027, and the long - term supply concern for intermediate products is relatively limited [43]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: In 2024, the output of nickel sulfate was 386,100 nickel tons, a 0.44% year - on - year increase. In March 2025, the output was 34,571.6 tons, with a month - on - month increase. From January to February 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, and 18,380 tons respectively [46]. 3.5需求端 (Demand Side) - **Stainless Steel Demand**: In 2024, the release of stainless steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 stainless steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the stainless steel output was 3.5025 million tons, recovering to a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,061,548 tons, a month - on - month increase [50]. - **Cathode Material Demand**: In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From the perspective of the power battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20% in terms of both output and installed capacity. In 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand still has inertia. In March 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 60,800 tons, rising from a low level [54]. 3.6库存端 (Inventory Side) - **Social and Bonded - Area Inventory**: As of May 2, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 42,806 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [61]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of May 7, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 200,082 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease. As of May 8, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 23,564 tons, also a slight month - on - month decrease [65].