Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 0.68%. Domestic economy has resilience, and the prosperity of new energy, semiconductor, and photovoltaic industries has increased; overseas uncertainties remain high, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts in the later period [6]. - In terms of supply, in 2025, the RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but the risk of new policy disturbances still exists. In September, China's nickel imports were large, and the output of nickel - iron was at a low level; Indonesia's nickel - iron production remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and the output increased slightly month - on - month. In September 2025, the total output of domestic refined nickel was 36,795 tons, a slight increase month - on - month [6]. - In terms of demand, in September, the stainless - steel market continued to recover. It is expected that in October, stainless - steel production will still be restricted, with a moderate rebound. The domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high. The operating rate of large stainless - steel manufacturers has rebounded, and the inventory decreased first and then increased. In the new - energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials increased significantly from August to September [6]. - In terms of inventory, last week, LME nickel inventory increased month - on - month, and SHFE inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The social inventory of refined nickel was 47,505 tons, an increase from the previous week [6]. - In the short term, the RKAB approval quota in 2025 provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but the risk of new policy disturbances still exists. Trade disputes have an emotional impact on the market. Returning to the fundamentals, imported nickel remains at a high level, and inventory has increased. Indonesian domestic policies have disturbances to supply, but have not actually affected it yet. The output of downstream stainless - steel has improved marginally after falling from a high level, and the inventory has also improved marginally. The nickel price will fluctuate within a range as a whole [6]. - The strategy is to conduct short - term trading on the SHFE nickel 2512 contract. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options. Later, pay attention to changes in the mine end, stainless - steel output, trade disputes, and Indonesian exports [6]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (red - soil nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [8]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - The report shows figures of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 - month, in US dollars per ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main - contract basis (in yuan per ton) [10]. 3. Supply Side Nickel Ore - In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly, with imports of 36.5763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. In August and September 2025, imports were 634,670 tons and 611,440 tons respectively, showing a seasonal increase [18]. Nickel Pig Iron - In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron output was 1.5138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In September 2025, the output was 156,500 tons, a slight increase month - on - month. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron output was 296,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%. In September 2025, the output was 21,700 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and still at a low level [21]. - In August and September 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 874,000 tons and 1.085 million tons respectively, showing a significant month - on - month increase. In September 2025, the nickel - pig - iron inventory was 19,900 tons, remaining stable [25]. Refined Nickel - With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, in 2024, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand. In September 2025, the total domestic refined - nickel output was 36,795 tons. From July to August 2025, the apparent consumption was 29,883.05 tons and 37,551.45 tons respectively [28]. - In September 2025, China's nickel imports were 278,600 tons, at a high level; exports were 17,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [31]. Intermediate Products - According to MYSTEEL research statistics, in September 2025, the output of Indonesia's MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) was 41,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [37]. - The growth rate of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte output has been relatively under pressure this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. In August and September 2025, the output was 20,300 tons and 21,300 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned production capacities for intermediate products from 2025 to 2027 [43]. - In September 2025, the output of nickel sulfate was 39,045.4 tons, an increase month - on - month. From August to September 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 30,292 tons and 29,533 tons respectively [47]. 4. Demand Side Stainless - Steel Demand - In 2024, the release of stainless - steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 sample stainless - steel enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43%. In September 2025, the stainless - steel output was 3.4267 million tons, showing an increase after falling from a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,005,282 tons, an increase month - on - month [54]. Cathode Material Demand - In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. From the perspective of the structure of power batteries, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20% in terms of both output and installed capacity. It is expected that in 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand will still have inertia. In September 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 75,900 tons, continuing to rebound from a low level [59]. 5. Inventory Side Social and Bonded - Area Inventory - As of October 17, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 47,505 tons, an increase from the previous week [64]. Exchange Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 250,476 tons, a slight increase month - on - month. As of October 23, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 26,881 tons, a slight increase month - on - month [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the nickel price may decline to find a valuation bottom if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, but in the long - term, the nickel price is supported by the US easing expectations, domestic anti - involution policies, and the new RKAB approval, so it is recommended to go long on dips. The short - term price range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Grouping by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices were stable this week. In the Philippines, the weather improved, but due to the rising nickel - iron price, the subsequent mine quotes may increase. In Indonesia, the overall supply - demand was loose, the wet - process ore price declined slightly, but the downward space was limited as smelters accelerated stockpiling due to concerns about RKAB quotas [12]. - **Nickel - iron**: The nickel - iron price was stable. The supply side had stable ore prices, and although the smelter's profit loss was repaired, it was still low, so smelters held back supply. The demand side was supported by the expected increase in steel mills' production in September, but steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement. The nickel - iron price is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in the short term [12]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply of market - available goods was tight, increasing the sellers' bargaining power. The demand side entered the peak season, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of high - priced MHP increased, leading to a higher MHP coefficient price [12]. - **Refined nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated weakly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but Powell's speech was hawkish, and some funds cashed in previous expectations, pressuring the non - ferrous sector. The spot market trading was average, and the spot premium of refined nickel was stable [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Refined nickel prices**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, LME closing price, and SHFE closing price all decreased, with declines of - 0.06%, - 0.22%, - 0.79%, and - 0.39% respectively. The import loss improved from - 6.20% to - 4.10% [16]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory, SHFE inventory, and nickel - plate spot inventory increased by 1.49%, 8.49%, and 5.72% respectively, while the nickel - bean spot inventory decreased by - 0.12%. The bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [16]. - **Spot premium**: The Russian nickel spot premium to the near - month contract was 300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the Jinchuan nickel spot premium averaged 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week [22]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The domestic high - nickel pig iron price was 949 - 960 yuan/nickel point, up 1 yuan/nickel point from last week, and the domestic nickel sulfate price was 28,020 - 28,220 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: The domestic port nickel - ore inventory increased by 1.0% to 1400.1 million tons as of September 19. The nickel - ore prices were stable, with the 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore at 52.2 US dollars/wet ton and the 1.2% grade at 23 US dollars/wet ton, and the 1.5% grade Philippine nickel ore at 57 US dollars/wet ton, all unchanged from last week [32][35]. - **Nickel - iron**: No specific new cost - related information was provided other than the production profit situation in previous periods [39]. - **Intermediate products**: In August, Indonesia's MHP production was 43,000 nickel tons, up 3000 tons month - on - month, and high - grade nickel matte production was 29,000 nickel tons, up 4000 tons month - on - month. As of September 19, the Indonesian MHP FOB price was 13,152 US dollars/metal ton, with an MHP coefficient of 0.875 (up 0.005 from last week), and the high - grade nickel matte was 13,415 US dollars/metal ton, with a coefficient of 0.9 (unchanged) [42][47]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In August 2025, the national refined nickel production reached 37,000 tons, remaining at a historically high level [52]. - **Demand**: No new significant demand - related information was provided other than the historical data of stainless - steel production, social inventory, and terminal demand [54][56]. - **Import and export**: No new import - export data or trends were provided other than historical import - export volume and import profit - loss trends [58]. - **Inventory**: The global visible nickel inventory increased by 2.1% to 269,000 tons this week [62]. - **Cost**: No new cost - related information was provided other than the historical production cost and profit - margin data of different processes [64]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: No new supply - related information was provided other than the historical production and net - import volume data [68]. - **Demand**: No new demand - related information was provided other than the historical data of ternary power - battery loading volume and ternary precursor production [71]. - **Cost and price**: No new cost - price information was provided other than the historical production cost and profit - margin data of different processes [73]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The global nickel supply and demand situation from 2023Q1 to 2025Q4 was presented. The total supply exceeded the total demand in most quarters, with a cumulative supply - demand surplus of 166,400 nickel tons in 2025 [79].