USA Rare Earth could be shaping up for a game-changing year in 2026.Since the start of the year, MP Materials (MP +0.59%) stock price has rallied by nearly 250%. This far outperformed the S&P 500 index, which is up by around 17% during the same time frame. Yet while shares in this rare earth metals company delivered such strong outperformance this year, it doesn't mean the same thing will happen in 2026.NYSE : MPMP MaterialsToday's Change( 0.59 %) $ 0.32Current Price$ 54.53Key Data PointsMarket Cap$9.6BDay' ...

Supply Chain Security & AI Race - The US government is prioritizing securing supply chains, particularly for AI, viewing economic security as national security [2][4][6] - The US aims to win the AI race through innovation and diffusion, expanding compute capacity domestically and exporting technology globally [26][27] - Pax Silica Initiative fosters collaboration with allies (Korea, Japan, Australia, UK, Singapore, Israel) to secure supply chains and co-invest in fabs, data centers, and refining projects [4][6][7] - The US government utilizes various resources like the Development Finance Corporation, Department of War, and Office of Strategic Capital to support supply chain initiatives [8] - The Department of War is investing in domestic mineral supply chains to ensure a reliable ecosystem for weapon production in both peace and wartime [10][11] - A $400 million investment for 15% of MP Materials is highlighted as an example of government support for securing critical mineral supplies [8] International Relations & Trade - The US seeks a constructive, stable, and positive relationship with China while prioritizing American interests [25] - The US acknowledges a growing economic security consensus with Europe, particularly regarding global imbalances and unfair trade practices [17][18] - The US sees Europe as an important partner in addressing economic and supply chain challenges, despite disagreements on technology regulation [19][22][23] - The US National Security Strategy was intended as a diagnosis of the challenges facing Europe, not an insult [20][21] - The US is engaging with countries like India to expand the Pax Silica Initiative and address specific supply chain security challenges [13][14]

Supply Chain Resiliency and Economic Security - The US government is focused on ensuring supply chain resiliency and preventing over-reliance on specific countries [1] - The economic security strategy is based on rebalancing trade, stabilizing conflict zones, industrializing America, and securing supply chains [2][3][4] - PAX Silica provides a framework for securing supply chains with allies and partners to lead future industries [4] - Economic security is considered national security, making economic policy a prerequisite for national survival [7] - The US government is leveraging various investment vehicles and collaborating with allies and the private sector to strengthen economic security [7][8] Public-Private Partnerships and Investments - Public-private partnerships are being utilized to support specific smelters and initiatives [5] - The US government is investing in domestic mineral production to ensure a reliable supply for national defense [9][10] - An example investment is $400 million for 50% of empty materials, framed as an investment in America's defense capabilities [8] International Collaboration - The US is collaborating with countries like Korea, Japan, Australia, the UK, Singapore, and Israel to address global supply chain challenges [6] - The inaugural PAX Silica summit included allies and guests like Taiwan and the OECD, with expectations for more countries, including India, to join [11][12] - The US is engaging with Europe on economic security, noting a growing consensus and opportunities for collaboration [17][24] US-China Relationship - The US aims for a constructive, stable, and positive relationship with China while prioritizing American interests [26] - The US seeks to win the "air race" through innovation and diffusion, expanding compute capacity domestically and exporting technology globally [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the definition and characteristics of junior mining companies, which are typically not yet producing and may face various challenges such as undefined deposits or untested technology [1]. Group 1 - Junior miners are defined as companies that are not yet producing minerals, often due to reasons like insufficient deposit definition or untested technology [1]. - Tim Worstall is highlighted as an expert in rare earth metals, particularly scandium, and is associated with various media outlets [1].

Group 1 - The article discusses the complexity of machines and how their various components interact to determine overall output [1] Group 2 - Tim Worstall is identified as a wholesaler of rare earth metals and an expert in scandium, contributing to various media outlets [2] - The article does not provide any investment recommendations or advice regarding specific companies [3]

Core Insights - Nvidia Corp.'s strong earnings forecast failed to revive investor confidence, leading to a tech market downturn and a mixed jobs report that left investors uncertain about their next steps [1][4][6] Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs' trading desk noted an increase in shorting across macro products, contributing to the market rout, alongside poor liquidity in S&P 500 futures, which fell below $5 million compared to a one-year average of $11.5 million [2] - The trading desk had previously indicated that the market was set for a rebound after a four-week slump, highlighting sectors like quantum computing, crypto, and rare earth metals as showing potential [3] Investor Sentiment - Many investors had positioned themselves for a rise in tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, but faced losses as the stock dropped 3.2% on Thursday, leaving them with few catalysts for a year-end rally [4][6] - The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, surged by 19% intraday, indicating heightened volatility and uncertainty among traders [6] Retail Sector Insights - Upcoming catalysts for investors include Black Friday retail sales and the Federal Reserve meeting, although retail trading volume has decreased significantly, dropping nearly a third from 16% to 11% of overall US equity trading volume [7]

Company Performance - Marriott Vacations reported a revenue decline of 3.2% year-over-year to $1.26 billion, missing analyst estimates of $1.32 billion [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was $170 million, nearly 8% below consensus expectations, raising concerns about profitability [2] - The company’s adjusted earnings per share of $1.69 exceeded expectations by 5.6%, but the market focused on revenue weakness and a decline in conducted tours [2] Market Reaction - Shares of Marriott Vacations fell 20.8% in the morning session following the mixed third-quarter results [1] - The stock has shown volatility, with 14 moves greater than 5% over the past year, indicating significant market impact from this news [4] - The previous notable stock movement occurred 27 days prior, when shares dropped 3.2% due to concerns over trade relations with China [4] Industry Context - The leisure industry, which includes travel, entertainment, and hospitality, is sensitive to economic sentiment and discretionary spending [5] - Recent comments from President Trump regarding China have increased market volatility, particularly affecting leisure stocks [5] - China's new export controls on rare earth materials, essential for high-tech goods, have raised concerns about economic headwinds and potential impacts on consumer spending [5]

Project Timeline & Strategy - Mining projects may require extended periods before commencing production, suggesting a combination of short-term and long-term investment strategies [1] - US companies pursuing purely domestic strategies could face timelines of at least 2 to 3 years for project completion [2] - Strategic partnerships with non-Chinese companies could potentially expedite project timelines for US companies, potentially reducing them to approximately 1 to 2 years [2][3] - Allied partnerships are crucial for accelerating project timelines, especially compared to US companies undertaking projects independently, which could take around 3 years post-funding [3]

Core Insights - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) experienced a share price increase of over 20% following a surprising announcement regarding rare earth metals by its CEO [1] - The CEO, Lorenzo Goncalves, emphasized the renewed importance of rare earth elements and indicated that the company is refocusing on its upstream mining assets in Michigan and Minnesota [1] Company Performance - The third-quarter earnings report for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. was positively received, leading to a significant rise in share value [1] - The company's strategic pivot towards rare earth metals is seen as a response to the evolving trade environment in the United States, which is considered the most attractive steel market globally [1] Industry Context - The announcement aligns with the current trade policies enforced by the Trump administration, which are aimed at preventing dumping practices in the steel market [1] - The focus on rare earth elements reflects a broader trend in the industry, where companies are exploring additional revenue streams beyond traditional steel production [1]

Well, the US imports a full 70% of its rare earth from China, and a crackdown could devastate the supply chain. Our next guest is the CEO of the only company in America manufacturing industrial magnets that use zero rare earth metals. Their customers span industries from defense and EVs to medical devices and more.Jonathan Roundtree of Nyron Magnetics joins us now. Jonathan, uh, great to have you with us. >> Yeah, thank you for having me on the show today.>> And you just broke ground on a second manufacturi ...