上周受风险资产表现偏弱、央行呵护资金面支撑，债市做多情绪有所提升。昨日国债期货整体走强。分 析人士认为，在避险情绪惯性回落、日历效应以及资金面维持平稳背景下，机构"持券过节"意愿将增 强，春节假期前债市偏强走势将延续，但需警惕政策信号以及风险资产反弹的扰动。节后债市行情分化 和波动率回升的概率较大，重点关注宏观面变化和风险资产走势。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global gold and silver prices have experienced a significant decline after a historic rise, with gold dropping nearly 10% and silver falling 16%, erasing all gains made since the beginning of the year [1][4] - The recent sell-off was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, which strengthened the dollar and reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated precious metals [7] - Despite the short-term price corrections, the fundamental support for gold remains strong, and the long-term investment theme for gold is still positive, indicating that the market has not entered a phase of sustained decline [7] Group 2 - The precious metals market has been driven by multiple factors since the beginning of the year, including geopolitical tensions, currency devaluation risks, and uncertainties regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [4] - The active trading by Chinese investors in the domestic market provides some support for prices, with retail demand and physical purchases potentially being released during price corrections [8] - Investors are advised to remain rational and focus on global macroeconomic trends, monetary policy movements, and geopolitical risks to navigate market volatility and seek potential investment opportunities [8]

Asian stocks followed Wall Street lower on Monday as lingering trade tensions along with renewed uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy and ongoing heavy selling in the precious metals space spurred risk aversion. Investors also looked ahead to the release of key U.S. jobs data as well as central bank decisions in Australia, Europe and London for direction.Precious metals including gold and silver continued to plunge during Asian trading hours, with gold falling over 5 percent and silver declining nearly 8 ...

Core Viewpoint - On January 29, a rare event occurred in the market where resource-related LOFs, including oil LOFs from E Fund and Jiashi, experienced a collective surge, with many products hitting the daily limit up [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Multiple LOF products announced suspension of trading after a week of rapid price increases, indicating a strong market reaction [2][8]. - Key LOF products that hit the daily limit include E Fund Oil LOF, Jiashi Oil LOF, and several others, with price increases around 10% [2][3]. - The WTI crude oil futures reached $65.002 per barrel, marking a 2.83% increase, the highest since September 2025 [5]. Group 2: Trading Dynamics - High premium rates and strong market sentiment contributed to the surge in oil-related LOFs, with investors utilizing the "off-market subscription + on-market sale" arbitrage mechanism [4][6]. - The trading volume for the oil LOF products was significant, with some experiencing a turnover rate of 38.33% [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions - Several fund companies announced collective suspensions of resource-related LOFs to warn investors about the risks associated with high trading premiums [8][9]. - Starting January 30, the daily subscription limit for certain oil LOFs was drastically reduced to as low as 2 yuan, indicating tighter controls on fund inflows [6][10]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Analysts noted that the high premium rates could lead to significant losses for investors if international oil prices decline or if there is a withdrawal of arbitrage funds [8][9]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious due to the potential for rapid price corrections [9].

The S&P 500 rose 0.3 per cent, recovering part of its 2.1 per cent decline on Tuesday, which marked its worst day since October. The benchmark moved closer to the record high it had touched earlier this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced about 200 points, or 0.4 per cent, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.1 per cent in early trade, AP reported.Markets found some support after Trump, speaking before business and government leaders in Europe, said he would not use force to take “the piece of ...

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another. Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a ...

Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and reporter on commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York [1] - He has covered every futures market traded in the U.S. at various times during his career [1] - Jim is the owner of "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets," which provides analytical, educational, and trading advisory services [2] Group 2 - He has worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Jim has also served as a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He holds a degree in journalism and economics from Iowa State University [2]

Market Overview - The BSE benchmark declined by 2,185.77 points or 2.54% last week, indicating a negative trend in Indian equity markets due to heightened risk aversion from renewed US tariff threats and rising geopolitical tensions [1][3] Company Valuations - Reliance Industries experienced a significant market valuation drop of Rs 1,58,532.91 crore, bringing its total valuation to Rs 19,96,445.69 crore, making it the most valued firm despite the decline [3] - HDFC Bank's valuation decreased by Rs 96,153.61 crore to Rs 14,44,150.26 crore [3] - Bharti Airtel's market valuation fell by Rs 45,274.72 crore to Rs 11,55,987.81 crore [2][3] - Bajaj Finance's valuation plunged by Rs 18,729.68 crore to Rs 5,97,700.75 crore [2][3] - Larsen & Toubro's market capitalization dropped by Rs 18,728.53 crore to Rs 5,53,912.03 crore, while TCS declined by Rs 15,232.14 crore to Rs 11,60,682.48 crore [3] - Infosys saw a decrease in market capitalization by Rs 10,760.59 crore to Rs 6,70,875 crore [3] Gainers in the Market - ICICI Bank's valuation increased by Rs 34,901.81 crore to Rs 10,03,674.95 crore, marking it as a notable gainer [3] - Hindustan Unilever's market capitalization rose by Rs 6,097.19 crore to Rs 5,57,734.23 crore [3] - State Bank of India's valuation edged higher by Rs 599.99 crore to Rs 9,23,061.76 crore [3] Overall Market Impact - The combined market valuation of seven of the top-10 most valued firms eroded by Rs 3,63,412.18 crore last week, with Reliance Industries being the largest contributor to this decline [3]

Market Valuation Changes - The combined market valuation of seven of the top-10 most valued firms decreased by ₹3,63,412.18 crore last week, with Reliance Industries being the largest contributor to this decline [1] - The BSE benchmark index fell by 2,185.77 points, representing a decline of 2.54 percent [1] Company-Specific Valuation Changes - Reliance Industries' market valuation decreased by ₹1,58,532.91 crore, bringing its total to ₹19,96,445.69 crore [3] - HDFC Bank's valuation fell by ₹96,153.61 crore to ₹14,44,150.26 crore [3] - Bharti Airtel's market valuation dropped by ₹45,274.72 crore to ₹11,55,987.81 crore [3] - Bajaj Finance's valuation declined by ₹18,729.68 crore to ₹5,97,700.75 crore [3] - Larsen & Toubro's market capitalization decreased by ₹18,728.53 crore to ₹5,53,912.03 crore [3] - Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) saw a decline of ₹15,232.14 crore, bringing its valuation to ₹11,60,682.48 crore [3] - Infosys' market capitalization edged lower by ₹10,760.59 crore to ₹6,70,875 crore [4] Gainers in Market Valuation - ICICI Bank's market valuation increased by ₹34,901.81 crore to ₹10,03,674.95 crore [4] - Hindustan Unilever's valuation rose by ₹6,097.19 crore to ₹5,57,734.23 crore [4] - State Bank of India's market capitalization increased by ₹599.99 crore to ₹9,23,061.76 crore [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The Indian equity markets ended the week negatively, influenced by increased risk aversion due to renewed US tariff threats and rising geopolitical tensions [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant drop in gold prices in the domestic market, with certain brands experiencing record daily declines, leading to consumer debates on whether to buy at lower prices [3][4]. Price Drop and Market Reaction - Major brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao saw gold jewelry prices fall by 40-53 CNY per gram, with Chow Sang Sang's price dropping from 1406 CNY to 1353 CNY per gram [3]. - The price drop for a 36-gram gold bracelet translates to savings of approximately 1512-1908 CNY, aligning with reports of a 1500 CNY decrease [3]. - Store employees noted that such a drastic price drop was unprecedented, with some considering personal purchases [3]. International Price Influence - On December 29, the international precious metals market also experienced a sharp decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 4.45% and spot gold falling over 200 USD per ounce [4]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices adjusted in response to international market trends, with wholesale markets in Shenzhen also lowering their quotes [4]. Causes of the Price Drop - The immediate triggers for the price drop included profit-taking by institutions due to year-end assessments and the upcoming holiday, alongside policy adjustments from the CME that increased margin requirements for gold and silver futures [5]. - A reduction in liquidity during the holiday season contributed to market volatility [5]. - Long-term factors included a temporary easing of geopolitical risks and a rebound in the dollar, which increased the cost of gold priced in USD [6]. Consumer Sentiment and Market Division - Consumer reactions were polarized, with some purchasing gold for weddings at reduced costs, while others remained cautious, fearing further price declines [8]. - There was debate over whether the price drop constituted a true "crash," as it followed a nearly 70% increase in prices throughout the year [9]. - Concerns were raised about brand premiums on gold jewelry, which could diminish resale value due to included craftsmanship and branding costs [10]. Practical Recommendations - For consumers needing gold for weddings, it is suggested to opt for bank gold bars or local processing to save on premiums [11]. - Current gold holders are advised to avoid panic selling and to utilize official channels for resale [11]. - New investors are cautioned against high-risk leveraged trading in the short term, with recommendations for long-term investments in gold ETFs [11]. Institutional Perspectives - There is a notable divergence among institutions regarding future price movements, with some warning of potential technical corrections while others view the recent drop as a normal retracement after reaching new highs [12]. - High volatility persists, necessitating caution regarding liquidity risks [12]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term fundamentals supporting gold remain intact, including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing global central bank gold purchases [13]. - Silver is expected to experience greater volatility due to its industrial demand and elastic characteristics [13].