报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：①假期间海外市场表现来看，美股表现相对偏强，尤以此前下跌的科技指数反 弹更为明显。日韩等市场当中韩国股市持续创高。整体上，外盘表现平稳，略有上涨。中国香港股市在假 期间短暂交易，先涨后跌，略有回落。核心拖累还是在于以恒生科技为首的国内平台型企业的下跌。②从 后期展望来看，首先，考虑到假期间全球地缘事件及金融市场整体平稳，未出现明显超预期黑天鹅事件冲 击，对风险偏好有正向积极影响，有利于节后股市的开门红。③其次，从驱动来看，外部方面，假期间美 国关税事件出现新的变化。包括美国大法官对此前特朗普关税的违宪认定，以及特朗普重新宣布施加先 10%、后 15%关税的消息。虽然关税本身理论上对行情会有扰动，但自 2025 年以来，市场对于关税问题已 "身经百战"，尤其是形成 TACO 交易预期，因此关税问题不会对整体股市构成大扰动。④国内方面，主要 变化是假期出行、电影票房和春晚呈现的中国机器人产业快速崛起。尤其是后者，我们认为短期将掀起新 一轮 A 股机器人板块的交易热情，提振风险偏好，成为带动市场支撑的重要力量，对指数有望带来科技风 格的强势。⑤后期，临近两会召开，预计两会政策预期在 ...

Report Investment Rating - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is -1, indicating a weak outlook [16]. Core Viewpoints - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is expected to remain weak in the short - term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [1]. - The market trading of the index is mainly influenced by three factors: the fundamental situation of the European Line, the expectation of route resumption, and the escalation of Sino - US tariffs [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2510 closed at 1,121.1 with a 0.77% daily increase; EC2512 closed at 1,571.0 with a 3.04% daily decrease; EC2602 closed at 1,338.0 with a 5.17% daily decrease [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index dropped 6.6% week - on - week to 1,046.50 points; the SCFIS US West route index dropped 4.8% week - on - week to 876.82 points. The SCFI European route index rose 10.0% bi - weekly to $1,068/TEU; the SCFI US West route index rose 0.5% bi - weekly to $1,468/FEU [1]. - **Spot Freight**: Different carriers' spot freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route range from $1,800 - $2,220/40'GP and $1,080 - $1,605/20'GP [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.84, and the US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.12 [1]. 2. Shipping Capacity - **October**: The weekly average shipping capacity was revised down from 26.5 to 25.7 million TEU/week due to many postponed sailings on the FE4 route. The spot market will mainly handle cargoes for weeks 43 and 44 next week, corresponding to shipping capacities of 29 and 33.5 million TEU respectively [11]. - **November**: The weekly average shipping capacity is currently 30.7 million TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), a 19% month - on - month increase and an 8.9% year - on - year increase. There are some changes in the suspension plans of different alliances [11]. - **December**: There are 6 pending and 3 empty voyages, with a weekly average shipping capacity of 29.5 million TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), and there is room for significant revision [11]. 3. Spot Freight Forecast - In mid - to late October, the reduction of empty voyages by the PA Alliance eased the pressure on shipowners to attract cargo after the holiday, but the demand did not improve significantly. The SCFIS European route index on October 13 is expected to decline slightly or fluctuate. For week 43, except for the Gemini Alliance, other shipping companies may see their quotes fall further [12]. 4. Contract Analysis - **2510 Contract**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly around 1100 points [12]. - **2512 Contract**: Due to the escalation of trade frictions and the uncertainty of the trade war, it is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset (1400 - 1800 points), and look for unilateral low - buying opportunities next week [13]. - **2602 Contract**: There is a divergence on whether to resume routes in February. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities and enter a long 02 - short 04 spread position with a light position [14]. 5. Impact of Counter - measures - China's counter - measures against the US USTR port surcharges are expected to have limited impact on the European Line's operating costs and supply. It may squeeze the living space of US - bound shipping companies in the long - term and increase the US - bound freight rates [15].