As 2025 drew to a close, many Americans looked back with financial regret. According to a new survey from Credit Karma, nearly half (49%) of U.S adults say they’re worse off financially, largely due to unexpected expenses (1). It's been a challenging year economically. From tariff policies and high inflation to a record-long government shutdown and rising unemployment, financial stress hit households hard. Two-thirds (67%) of survey respondents say economic conditions directly impacted their spending habi ...

Group 1 - Social Security is a crucial source of retirement income for millions, and understanding its rules and changes is essential for retirees [1] - In 2026, Social Security benefits will receive a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), which is slightly higher than the 2.5% increase in 2025, but may not significantly help due to rising costs [2][3] - Medicare Part B costs are increasing, which will reduce the impact of the COLA on retirees' monthly benefits [3] Group 2 - Tariff policies may contribute to rising prices, potentially causing the 2.8% COLA to lag behind inflation, although they could also lead to lower inflation if they slow down spending [4] - Retirees relying heavily on Social Security should consider backup plans, such as reducing expenses or seeking part-time work, in case the COLA does not provide sufficient support [5] Group 3 - Seniors can now earn more income without risking withheld benefits once they reach full retirement age, allowing for greater financial flexibility [6] - The earnings-test limit for those under full retirement age has increased to $24,480 in 2026, up from $23,400 in 2025, meaning that earnings above this threshold will result in $1 in benefits being withheld for every $2 earned [8]

all major issues for the economy now and in the new year. We're getting both sides of the coin now from former Biden administration Council of Economic Advisors Chair Jared Bernstein. He's now a fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and Peter Earl, senior economist at the econ at the American Institute for Economic Research and uh cousin of Steve Earl, the guitarist.No, >> no, no, not unfortunately. >> Unfortunately, let me start with uh I guess Jared. Jared, 4.3% GDP number accordin ...

The US economy grew at an unexpectedly strong pace of 4.3% in the third quarter — the highest rate in two years — according to a government report released Tuesday.Vigorous consumer spending on services such as health care and products like recreational vehicles fueled the surge in the gross domestic product, which is comprised of the value of all goods and services produced across the economy, for the July through September quarter.The inflation-adjusted annual rate of 4.3% marked an uptick from 3.8% growt ...

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth outlook is bleak, with the IMF projecting a slowdown in 2026 due to rising protectionism and prolonged uncertainty [1][10][27] - Global economic activity is expanding modestly, primarily driven by the services sector, but tariff pressures are constraining trade and manufacturing [12][34] China - China's economic growth is losing momentum, with manufacturing contracting for seven consecutive months, the longest period in over nine years [42][44] - Retail sales growth is significantly below pre-pandemic levels, and GDP growth is expected to slow from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 without substantial stimulus measures [1][42] - The real estate slump and oversupply issues continue to pose challenges, with recovery efforts expected to take time [44][51] United States - The U.S. economy is projected to grow moderately at 2.1% in 2026, slightly up from 2.0% in 2025, supported by fiscal expansion and service sector activity [2][21] - Labor market slowdown and various risks, including political uncertainty and tariff impacts, are expected to cloud the economic outlook [21][27] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 3.25%-3.50% amid sticky inflation and economic headwinds [21][27] Eurozone - The Eurozone is expected to continue its recovery with modest GDP growth of 1.1% in 2026, supported by fiscal policies and an expanding service sector [28][30] - However, persistent weaknesses in manufacturing and external demand due to geopolitical tensions may weigh on overall growth [28][34] Japan - Japan's economy shows potential for recovery, bolstered by fiscal stimulus and strong service sector activity, despite challenges from weak manufacturing and global demand [3][35] - The government has introduced a JPY 21.3 trillion stimulus package to address inflation and promote growth [3][37] - The Bank of Japan is expected to cautiously normalize its monetary policy as inflation remains above the target [38][41] Thailand - Thailand's economic growth is projected to slow to 1.8% in 2026, the lowest in five years, due to the impact of U.S. tariffs and global trade tensions [3][52] - The tourism sector is recovering but has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, and domestic political uncertainties may affect public spending [3][52] - Stimulus measures and growth in emerging industries may provide some support to the economy [3][52]

Costco Wholesale has reported an 8.2% increase in net sales in the first quarter (Q1) of fiscal 2026, which ended on 23 November 2025. The US-based retailer reported net sales of $65.98bn for the period, up from $60.99bn in the same quarter of the previous year. Comparable sales increased 6.4% across the business. Net income increased from $1.79bn to $2bn, a 11.7% rise year-on-year. The company recorded gains of 5.9% in the US, 6.5% in Canada, and 8.8% in other international markets. Online sales grew ...

Legal Concerns Regarding Military Strikes - The report raises serious legal questions about potential war crimes related to a second strike on survivors, even under the assumption of an armed conflict with drug cartels [1][2][3] - The legality of the strikes is questioned under the law of naval warfare and armed conflict, as survivors clinging to remnants of a boat are not considered an imminent threat and should receive protection [2][3] - The report highlights that such actions could violate customary international law incorporated into U S domestic law, potentially constituting murder [3] - The legality of potential land strikes is questioned, with concerns raised about whether they comply with the law of armed conflict regarding survivors who pose no threat [4][5] Evidence and Due Process - The report notes the lack of evidence supporting claims that the targeted boats were smuggling drugs related to the fentanyl crisis aimed at the U S [6][7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of due process before engaging in deadly action, suggesting that interdiction and boarding of vessels should be prioritized over immediate deadly force [9][10] Congressional Oversight and Executive Power - The report underscores Congress's constitutional duty to oversee military actions and potentially declare war if the conflict becomes long-term and involved [5][11] - The report questions the consistency of the U S policy, citing the pardon of a former Honduran president convicted of drug trafficking while simultaneously striking boats allegedly involved in drug smuggling [11][12][13] Supreme Court and Tariff Regime - The report anticipates a Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariff regime, expecting a decision before the end of the year [15][16][17] - The report suggests the Supreme Court may apply the doctrine requiring an express delegation from Congress for executive actions with broad economic consequences, potentially leading to the tariffs being overturned [18][19]

Economic Overview - Warning signs are evident across the economy, influenced by the Trump administration's tariff policies, persistent high inflation, and concerns regarding the affordability of daily life [1] Market Sentiment - The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) has risen above 20, indicating increased market fear, as it had spent most of the year in the teens [2] - CNN's Fear and Greed index currently stands at 14 on a scale of 1 to 100, reflecting "extreme fear" in the market [3] Investment Strategy - In light of potential economic corrections, international markets may present more attractive investment opportunities, especially when the dollar weakens, as international profits can increase when converted back to U.S. dollars [4] - The FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (NYSEMKT: VEU) is highlighted as a low-cost investment option to diversify away from U.S. companies and capitalize on international growth [5] ETF Details - The VEU ETF is highly diversified, holding over 3,800 stocks, with financial services making up 23.9% of its portfolio, alongside significant positions in industrials, technology, and consumer cyclical sectors [6] - The VEU ETF has outperformed the S&P 500 this year, offering a 2.7% dividend yield and a low expense ratio [7] - The fund tracks the FTSE All-World ex-US index, including mid-cap and large-cap stocks from both developed and emerging markets, with only one stock exceeding a 3% weighting [8] Top Holdings Performance - Key stocks in the VEU ETF include: - Taiwan Semiconductor: 3.33% weight, 49.8% return - Tencent Holdings: 1.43% weight, 57.6% return - ASML: 1.18% weight, 46.7% return - Alibaba Group: 1.08% weight, 84.3% return - Samsung Electronics: 1.00% weight, 60.6% return - Other notable stocks include SAP, AstraZeneca, HSBC Holdings, Nestle, and Novartis AG with varying returns [9]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher, driven by artificial intelligence-related deals, despite uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's near-term monetary policy due to a lack of economic data [7] - The S&P 500 gained 12.52 points (0.18%) to end at 6,852.72 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 109.77 points (0.46%) to 23,834.72 points; however, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 218.88 points (0.46%) to 47,343.99 [3][7] M&A Activity - Amazon announced a $38 billion deal with OpenAI to run and scale its AI workloads on Amazon Web Services, significantly boosting its stock [7] - Kimberly-Clark's shares declined after the announcement of its acquisition of Kenvue, the maker of Tylenol, for over $40 billion [7] Economic Indicators - The Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global released purchasing managers' indexes indicating ongoing uncertainty in U.S. factories due to Trump's tariff policies [7] - The upcoming ADP National Employment index is expected to provide insights into the U.S. labor market amid the ongoing government shutdown [2][7] Earnings Season - Over 300 companies in the S&P 500 have reported their third-quarter earnings, with 83% surpassing analysts' estimates according to recent LSEG data [5][7]

Core Insights - Global business optimism has declined for the third consecutive quarter, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade and tariff policies [2][6] - A survey of 10,000 businesses indicates that optimism has decreased by nearly 20% in 2025, reflecting growing concerns over the challenging trade environment [2][3] - More than half of the surveyed international businesses are seeking alternatives to U.S. markets, with expectations that U.S. trade policies may worsen [4][6] Trade and Tariff Impact - The ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs is prompting many international companies to explore new trading partners outside of the U.S. and China [4][6] - Businesses are increasingly prioritizing domestic markets and diversifying their supply chains in response to rising tariff pressures [4][6] Supply Chain and Investment Concerns - There is a notable decline in supply chain confidence, particularly among North American manufacturing businesses, which have been significantly affected by trade policies [5][6] - The report highlights that sectors such as metal manufacturing, capital goods production, and automotive have been hit hardest, leading to a shift in focus towards supply chain resilience over cost management [5][6][7]