Canola Industry Impact - The Chinese market is effectively closed to the Canadian canola industry due to new tariffs, impacting the entire value chain from farms to processing [1] - Canada is facing 100% tariffs on canola oil and meal, alongside preliminary duties of 75.8% on canola seed, significantly affecting exports [2] - The canola sector is calling for political engagement with China to resolve these trade tensions, emphasizing the need for political solutions [7] Electric Vehicle (EV) Tariffs - Canada imposed a federal surtax on China-made EVs to align with the U.S., which had previously increased its tariffs on such imports [3] - The Canadian government is reviewing its 100% tariffs on electric vehicles from China, assessing the appropriateness of the surtax rate and scope [6] - The auto sector argues that maintaining tariffs is essential to protect local industries from unfair competition, while some advocates suggest removing barriers could provide cheaper vehicles and help meet environmental goals [8][9] Economic Contributions and Comparisons - The canola sector reportedly contributes $43.7 billion to the Canadian economy and employs about 200,000 people, although these figures are contested [15] - A contrasting analysis indicates that canola farming and processing contributed only $5 billion to GDP and employed 21,576 people, compared to the automotive sector's $19.1 billion contribution and 118,120 jobs [15][16] - The debate highlights a division between Western agricultural interests and Eastern industrial priorities, with calls for the government to balance support for both sectors [14]

This clip posted on X by Reliance Industries shows India's richest man MKkesh Shambani and his wife attending US President Donald Trump's pre-inauguration dinner. And that is I Wanka Trump and Jared Kushner attending the elaborate wedding of Amani's youngest son in July 2024. Now Amani has landed squarely in Trump's crosshairs. Amani's conglomerate Reliance is now the single biggest buyer of Russian crude in India.Last year, it signed a long-term deal with Russian state oil giant Rosnf. These crude oil impo ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of recent trade deals and tariff rates on the Asia Pacific region, particularly focusing on the effective tariff rates and their implications for economic growth and capital expenditure (capex) [1][7][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Effective Tariff Rates**: - The effective tariff rate for imports from Asia is projected to rise to 24% from 5% at the beginning of 2025, indicating a significant increase in trade costs for exporters [7][12][14]. - This rise in tariffs is expected to have a direct negative impact on exporters' sales and margins, as well as an indirect effect through a slowdown in capex [7][9][10]. 2. **Impact on Capital Expenditure**: - Initial signs of weakness in the Asia capex cycle have been observed, with June capital goods imports showing a notable month-on-month decline [7][9][39]. - The slowdown in capex is attributed to trade policy uncertainty and the anticipated effects of higher tariffs [39][10]. 3. **Trade Deal Dynamics**: - Four out of twelve Asian economies have reached trade agreements with the US, which has reduced uncertainty regarding tariff levels [8][12]. - However, many economies, including India, Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand, are still negotiating and have not secured comprehensive deals [10][12]. 4. **Sectoral and Regional Variations**: - Not all sectors and economies are equally affected by the tariff increases; for instance, US import prices from China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore have fallen, while prices from ASEAN and Japan have risen [20][21]. - The complexity of trade agreements, particularly with China, remains a significant concern, as ongoing negotiations are expected to lead to further delays rather than comprehensive resolutions [10][11]. 5. **Future Outlook**: - The macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2025 remains cautious due to the anticipated direct and indirect effects of higher tariffs [9][10]. - The report highlights that while current data does not show significant tariff impacts, future months may reveal price cuts or lower volumes for Asian exporters as the effects of tariffs materialize [33][34]. Additional Important Considerations 1. **Transshipment Issues**: - The report notes that transshipment and the level of domestic content in exports will continue to be contentious issues, potentially leading to further trade tensions [11][10]. 2. **Foreign Value-Added Content**: - Restricting foreign value-added content in exports to below 40% poses challenges for many Asian economies, particularly those with high import content from China [44][45]. - Vietnam and the Philippines have the highest shares of Chinese value-added content in their exports, which could complicate compliance with potential US trade restrictions [47][49]. 3. **Inflationary Effects**: - The full inflationary effects of tariffs have yet to be fully realized, with expectations of price hikes looming over the summer months [10][11]. 4. **Currency Impact**: - The depreciation of the broad trade-weighted dollar by 7.3% since January has effectively increased US tariff rates by 31%, complicating the trade landscape further [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications of the recent trade dynamics affecting the Asia Pacific region, highlighting the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead for economies and sectors involved.

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards US equities, indicating a narrower path for further gains while highlighting opportunities in emerging markets (EM) assets and carry strategies [2][11][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that while trade tensions have eased, the US still faces significant growth-inflation challenges, leading to a weaker dollar and a steeper UST curve [2][19][26]. - It notes that the expected tariff shifts have reduced some tail risks, allowing equity investors to overlook certain weaknesses in economic data [7][11]. - The outlook for growth is described as "soggy," which may favor carry strategies over cyclical risks, particularly in the context of lower volatility and a more stable inflation environment [11][39]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience sluggish but non-recessionary growth, with inflation remaining sticky [11][19]. - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current stance unless significant weakness in the job market is observed [22][39]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in market sentiment towards a more balanced return outlook globally, with a focus on diversified risky asset portfolios [26][30]. - Emerging market equities are noted for their potential upside, given their current undervaluation compared to US equities [30][32]. Risks and Opportunities - The report identifies a potential rise in unemployment as a key risk that could reignite recession fears, impacting risky assets negatively [16][39]. - It suggests that the path for a weaker dollar remains wide, driven by easing trade tensions and a favorable outlook for EM currencies [26][28]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends combining diversified equity positions with hedges, particularly in anticipation of key economic data releases [2][11]. - It emphasizes the importance of diversification in both equity and bond allocations to mitigate risks associated with potential economic downturns [39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility in the oil market, driven by easing trade tensions which have led to rising oil prices, while expectations of increased supply from Iran and OPEC continue to exert downward pressure on prices [1] Group 2 - The article indicates that the current dynamics in the oil market are influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the trade situation, which has created uncertainty regarding future price movements [1] - It emphasizes that the interplay between rising prices due to reduced trade tensions and the potential for increased supply from key players like Iran and OPEC creates a complex environment for oil pricing [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ternium reported a sequential increase in EBITDA driven by improved margins and slightly higher shipments [6] - Net income for Q1 2025 stood at $142 million, including a $45 million provision adjustment charge related to ongoing litigation [18] - Adjusted net income, excluding the major charge, was $188 million, marking a significant improvement over the prior quarter [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel segment saw higher shipments in Brazil and other markets, partially offset by lower sales volumes in Mexico [19] - Mining segment shipments increased slightly quarter over quarter and rose 14% year over year, driven by higher production levels in Mexico and Brazil [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Mexico, apparent consumption of steel decreased almost 5% in 2024, affecting demand [30] - Brazilian trade authorities reported a significant year-over-year increase in imports during Q1 2025, with ongoing anti-dumping investigations on imports from China [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance competitiveness by increasing operational efficiency and reducing costs amid a challenging trade environment [10] - Ternium's expansion project in Mexico has a revised total CapEx of $4 billion, representing a 16% increase compared to previous estimates [12] - The company expects to achieve a double-digit EBITDA margin in Q2 2025, supported by increased realized prices and cost reduction initiatives [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that trade tensions and uncertainty are impacting global economic growth, but there is optimism regarding the Plan Mexico initiative to enhance industrialization [6][8] - The outlook for the steel sector in Argentina is improving, with expectations of a 20% increase in shipments in the upcoming quarters [56] Other Important Information - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a net cash position of $1.3 billion as of March 2025 [23] - Ternium's CapEx for 2025 is projected to be around $2.5 billion, with significant investments in ongoing projects [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Situation in Mexico and GDP impact - Management acknowledged the challenging environment in Mexico, with expectations for demand to improve in the following quarters, particularly in the commercial market [30][31] Question: Margins and profitability outlook - Management indicated that margins are expected to improve in Q2 2025, with a potential return to more reasonable levels compared to previous quarters [37][38] Question: Cost reduction and volume growth opportunities - Management confirmed ongoing cost reduction programs and highlighted the potential for volume growth in Mexico due to decreased imports [41][45] Question: Cash returns and dividend payments - Management expressed confidence in sustaining dividend payments despite ongoing CapEx plans, citing a solid financial position [54] Question: Argentina's steel sector outlook - Management noted improvements in Argentina's steel sector, with expectations for increased shipments and no immediate plans for capacity expansion [56] Question: CapEx increase reasons and timeline - Management explained that the CapEx increase was due to higher construction costs and inflation, with the additional costs expected to be distributed over the project timeline [64]

The market may be moody, but bargain hunters are treating Big Tech like it is Black Friday in July. Nvidia Corp NVDA, Alphabet Inc GOOGL GOOG, Microsoft Corp MSFT, Amazon.com Inc AMZN and Meta Platforms Inc META – the untouchables of the last bull run – have been hit by a cocktail of inflation worries, trade tension tantrums and AI-spending skepticism. Big Tech Has Been Heavily Sold Off But as Violeta Todorova, senior research analyst at Leverage Shares, notes, "Big technology companies with strong balance ...

Core Viewpoint - Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 22, with sales estimated at $2.18 billion and earnings per share at $1.71, reflecting stable earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Earnings and Estimates - The company has shown a consistent earnings surprise, with a 24.86% surprise in the last quarter and an average surprise of 14.97% over the past four quarters [2] - Current estimates indicate an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this time [3] Segment Performance - The Instruments & Accessories segment is anticipated to report strong results due to robust da Vinci procedure growth, particularly in U.S. general surgery and cancer procedures in international markets [4] - The launch of the da Vinci 5 systems is expected to contribute positively to system placements, with 174 systems placed in the U.S. during the fourth quarter, marking a nearly 60% sequential growth [5][9] - The Services segment is likely to reflect strong adoption of digital products, while margins may improve due to cost reductions and lower freight rates, despite increased depreciation expenses [11] Market Trends - General surgery procedures have driven growth in the U.S., while cancer procedures have benefited international markets, a trend expected to continue [7] - China's recovery post-COVID is likely to boost sales, although tariff-related challenges may impact performance [8] - The Systems segment is expected to show strong adoption of the da Vinci 5, although placements in China may face pressure due to delayed tenders [10] Valuation and Performance - ISRG shares have declined 7.5% year-to-date, outperforming the industry decline of 12.6% and the S&P 500's decline of 10.6% [13] - The company is trading at a forward P/E of 57.48X, significantly higher than the industry average of 26.59X, indicating a premium valuation despite a decrease from a five-year high [16] Investment Outlook - Despite high valuation, ISRG is expected to maintain strong performance driven by growth in da Vinci procedure volume and system placements [19] - The launch of new systems in Europe and the U.S. is likely to support growth, although challenges in bariatric procedures and trade tensions may offset some gains [20][21] - Investors are advised to monitor the stock for potential entry points amid tariff uncertainties and high valuation concerns [24][25]

今天的盘面应该无需多说了，10/20/40周期情绪指标都已经完全脱离极寒区域，10周期情绪已经越过均衡值50，意味着短期情绪趋向高涨。 那么短期是否连续上攻，还是回落做双底呢，我们拆解一下5分钟级别的走势结构和动量： 如上图，自反转以后，5分钟级别上攻动能输出没有顶背离现象，也就是说存在继续上攻的潜力。 但上午的成交量水平偏低，缩量比较明显，这个怎么理解，至少说明主动资金并没有继续大力输出。 走势结构上，昨天开始就展开了窄幅横盘震荡，也就是缠论说的中枢，这个震荡结构倾向看多。 半导体板块继续大涨，机器人板块继续红盘为主， 本轮牛市的两大成长主线交替发力，整体都是温和放量，隔日缩量对应小级别横盘，可视为正常。半 导体指数创了RSLINE年高，令人振奋。 半导体今天发力最猛的是模拟电路细分，这个底层逻辑值得细嚼一下，肯定和贸易对抗有关。 ...