This clip posted on X by Reliance Industries shows India's richest man MKkesh Shambani and his wife attending US President Donald Trump's pre-inauguration dinner. And that is I Wanka Trump and Jared Kushner attending the elaborate wedding of Amani's youngest son in July 2024. Now Amani has landed squarely in Trump's crosshairs. Amani's conglomerate Reliance is now the single biggest buyer of Russian crude in India.Last year, it signed a long-term deal with Russian state oil giant Rosnf. These crude oil impo ...

July 28, 2025 06:07 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific The Viewpoint: Dust Settles on Tariff Rates, But What's The Damage? Despite trade deals being concluded, we are ending up with much higher tariff rates across the board. This is already starting to impart some damage to the growth cycle through capex, as we expected. The growth drag will become more salient after front-loading effects fade. Key Takeaways In this report, we address the following key questions: 1. With trade deals coming in, what is the ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards US equities, indicating a narrower path for further gains while highlighting opportunities in emerging markets (EM) assets and carry strategies [2][11][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that while trade tensions have eased, the US still faces significant growth-inflation challenges, leading to a weaker dollar and a steeper UST curve [2][19][26]. - It notes that the expected tariff shifts have reduced some tail risks, allowing equity investors to overlook certain weaknesses in economic data [7][11]. - The outlook for growth is described as "soggy," which may favor carry strategies over cyclical risks, particularly in the context of lower volatility and a more stable inflation environment [11][39]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience sluggish but non-recessionary growth, with inflation remaining sticky [11][19]. - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current stance unless significant weakness in the job market is observed [22][39]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in market sentiment towards a more balanced return outlook globally, with a focus on diversified risky asset portfolios [26][30]. - Emerging market equities are noted for their potential upside, given their current undervaluation compared to US equities [30][32]. Risks and Opportunities - The report identifies a potential rise in unemployment as a key risk that could reignite recession fears, impacting risky assets negatively [16][39]. - It suggests that the path for a weaker dollar remains wide, driven by easing trade tensions and a favorable outlook for EM currencies [26][28]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends combining diversified equity positions with hedges, particularly in anticipation of key economic data releases [2][11]. - It emphasizes the importance of diversification in both equity and bond allocations to mitigate risks associated with potential economic downturns [39].

原油市场充满悬念：油价在贸易紧张局势缓解的背景下上涨，但伊朗和OPEC供应增加的预期仍对价格 形成压力，此外这些因素也为价格带来变数…… 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ternium reported a sequential increase in EBITDA driven by improved margins and slightly higher shipments [6] - Net income for Q1 2025 stood at $142 million, including a $45 million provision adjustment charge related to ongoing litigation [18] - Adjusted net income, excluding the major charge, was $188 million, marking a significant improvement over the prior quarter [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel segment saw higher shipments in Brazil and other markets, partially offset by lower sales volumes in Mexico [19] - Mining segment shipments increased slightly quarter over quarter and rose 14% year over year, driven by higher production levels in Mexico and Brazil [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Mexico, apparent consumption of steel decreased almost 5% in 2024, affecting demand [30] - Brazilian trade authorities reported a significant year-over-year increase in imports during Q1 2025, with ongoing anti-dumping investigations on imports from China [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance competitiveness by increasing operational efficiency and reducing costs amid a challenging trade environment [10] - Ternium's expansion project in Mexico has a revised total CapEx of $4 billion, representing a 16% increase compared to previous estimates [12] - The company expects to achieve a double-digit EBITDA margin in Q2 2025, supported by increased realized prices and cost reduction initiatives [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that trade tensions and uncertainty are impacting global economic growth, but there is optimism regarding the Plan Mexico initiative to enhance industrialization [6][8] - The outlook for the steel sector in Argentina is improving, with expectations of a 20% increase in shipments in the upcoming quarters [56] Other Important Information - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a net cash position of $1.3 billion as of March 2025 [23] - Ternium's CapEx for 2025 is projected to be around $2.5 billion, with significant investments in ongoing projects [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Situation in Mexico and GDP impact - Management acknowledged the challenging environment in Mexico, with expectations for demand to improve in the following quarters, particularly in the commercial market [30][31] Question: Margins and profitability outlook - Management indicated that margins are expected to improve in Q2 2025, with a potential return to more reasonable levels compared to previous quarters [37][38] Question: Cost reduction and volume growth opportunities - Management confirmed ongoing cost reduction programs and highlighted the potential for volume growth in Mexico due to decreased imports [41][45] Question: Cash returns and dividend payments - Management expressed confidence in sustaining dividend payments despite ongoing CapEx plans, citing a solid financial position [54] Question: Argentina's steel sector outlook - Management noted improvements in Argentina's steel sector, with expectations for increased shipments and no immediate plans for capacity expansion [56] Question: CapEx increase reasons and timeline - Management explained that the CapEx increase was due to higher construction costs and inflation, with the additional costs expected to be distributed over the project timeline [64]

今天的盘面应该无需多说了，10/20/40周期情绪指标都已经完全脱离极寒区域，10周期情绪已经越过均衡值50，意味着短期情绪趋向高涨。 那么短期是否连续上攻，还是回落做双底呢，我们拆解一下5分钟级别的走势结构和动量： 如上图，自反转以后，5分钟级别上攻动能输出没有顶背离现象，也就是说存在继续上攻的潜力。 但上午的成交量水平偏低，缩量比较明显，这个怎么理解，至少说明主动资金并没有继续大力输出。 走势结构上，昨天开始就展开了窄幅横盘震荡，也就是缠论说的中枢，这个震荡结构倾向看多。 半导体板块继续大涨，机器人板块继续红盘为主， 本轮牛市的两大成长主线交替发力，整体都是温和放量，隔日缩量对应小级别横盘，可视为正常。半 导体指数创了RSLINE年高，令人振奋。 半导体今天发力最猛的是模拟电路细分，这个底层逻辑值得细嚼一下，肯定和贸易对抗有关。 ...