Fed day. We're getting excited, Marc. What are you going to be watching in particular.Because everyone's expecting a cut and there's a lot of focus on the guidance. Of course, what that kind of guidance will look like, Will it reinforce market pricing or push back against it. So I think there's two big things to watch for.It's the dot plot is obviously the big one. How many kind of cuts are priced in not just for the rest of this year, but into next year. There's an awful lot priced into the curve, so it's ...

Market Performance & Economic Outlook - S&P 500 earnings are up 10% year-over-year, and NASDAQ 100 earnings are up 34% year-over-year, indicating strength in the US market [1] - Concerns about Fed independence are causing a slight sell-off at the long end of the curve [2] - The Fed's influence is strongest on the two-year rate, which has decreased by approximately 7-8 basis points [3] Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The Fed only controls the short-term lending rate, and excessive cuts could lead to a steepening of the yield curve, potentially resulting in higher longer-term interest rates [3] - There is potential for the Fed to implement two or three rate cuts without significantly impacting the long end of the curve, even with inflation around 3% [4] - Lower rates on money markets and challenges in generating income from interest rates and bonds make equity income more attractive [5] Investment Strategy - The ITWO ETF, a Russell 2000 high-income ETF focused on small caps, is highlighted as a pick [4] - Small caps are more leveraged and have shorter maturity, making them more sensitive to and potentially benefiting more from rate cuts compared to large caps [5]

Key Takeaways from the FX and Rates Sentiment Survey Industry Overview - The survey focuses on the foreign exchange (FX) and rates market sentiment, particularly regarding the US dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), and emerging markets (EM) currencies. It reflects the views of 42 fund managers with a total of USD 573 billion in assets under management (AUM) [7][9]. Core Insights 1. **Short USD Thesis**: The short USD remains the highest conviction trade for the rest of the year, despite being challenged by rising global growth concerns [1][3][20]. 2. **Global Growth Concerns**: There is a significant concern regarding a potential global growth slowdown, which could impact the short USD thesis [3][25]. 3. **US Exceptionalism**: The fading of US exceptionalism is a recurring theme, with expectations that both US equities and the USD may decline [1][32][33]. 4. **Investor Sentiment**: A strong majority of respondents expect the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair to be more dovish, impacting market expectations [44][46]. 5. **FX Hedge Ratios**: Many investors prefer to increase their FX hedge ratios, indicating a cautious approach towards US assets [49][50]. Additional Insights 1. **Emerging Markets (EM) Sentiment**: EM FX and duration sentiment appears to have peaked, with a slight decline in positioning and views noted in August [15][94]. 2. **European Investment Push**: There is muted conviction regarding a broad-based European investment push, with concerns about EU defense spending and fiscal policies [22][61]. 3. **Tariff Expectations**: Most respondents expect tariffs against China to remain between 30-40% by the end of 2025, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [17][34]. 4. **Oil Price Expectations**: Expectations for oil prices are that they will remain range-bound between $60-69 per barrel, with some upside risks anticipated [36][37]. 5. **UK and Eurozone Sentiment**: GBP sentiment has turned neutral with bearish levels, while EUR sentiment remains bullish despite lighter positioning [110][103]. Potential Risks and Opportunities 1. **Fed Independence Risks**: Nearly half of the respondents expect risks to Fed independence to manifest as a steeper US Treasury (UST) curve and a weaker USD [46][39]. 2. **Global Risk Appetite**: The appetite for risk-taking in portfolios remains lower than normal, with average cash levels reported at 3.3% [77][78]. 3. **Duration Exposure**: Global duration exposure has fallen relative to the previous month, indicating a cautious stance among investors [78][80]. Conclusion The survey indicates a complex landscape for FX and rates, with significant concerns about global growth, US fiscal policy, and the evolving dynamics of the Fed. Investors are adjusting their strategies accordingly, with a notable shift towards hedging and cautious positioning in the face of potential risks.

Market Trends - US equity markets showed signs of revival since June, potentially indicating a shift away from the rotation trade that characterized the first five months of the year [1][2] - The dollar's performance has lagged behind the recovery in stock markets, possibly due to market anticipation of a more dovish Federal Reserve [3] - A washout in positioning, where the market had become too long on the dollar at the start of the year, was necessary for a potential dollar recovery [3] Economic Outlook - The US economy has not been as severely impacted as initially anticipated back in April [4] - Recognition of the US economy's resilience has contributed to the washout of positioning and potential shift in market sentiment [4]

Market Concerns & Tariffs - The market's biggest concern revolves around tariffs due to the uncertainty of their endpoint and potential effects on sectors, market capitalizations, and investment styles [1][2] - The EU tariffs are significant due to the EU being a major trade partner, and the lack of a livable agreement introduces volatility [4] - Europe is considering other trade partners to offset potential losses with the US [4] - A livable agreement between the US and the EU is expected to be reached, potentially at a lower rate than the discussed 15% [5] US Exceptionalism & Economic Resilience - Oppenheimer Asset Management believes US exceptionalism remains intact due to innovation in technology [6][7] - The US is seen as the "cleanest dirty shirt" in a "hamper of dirty shirts," highlighting its relative strength compared to other countries, particularly regarding technology [7] - The US consumer remains remarkably resilient despite multiple interest rate hikes and pauses [3] - No recession is expected [3] Global Market Dynamics - International markets have outperformed the US recently, driven by lower valuations and expectations of tariff agreements [6][7] - The rest of the world feeds into globalization [7] - Technology is deeply embedded in societies, businesses, and consumers worldwide [8]

International Investment Opportunities - International and emerging markets are early in a new cycle, supported by strong fundamentals [3] - Deregulation trends in Europe and parts of Asia are creating powerful investment dynamics [3] - Deficit spending in Europe and Asia, including China, is evolving, signaling potential shifts [5] - Global companies offer world-class investment opportunities, especially as US exceptionalism may have peaked [7][8] - Trends like AI, infrastructure, hyperscalers, and semiconductors are globally present, not exclusive to the US [9] Market Underperformance & Reversion - Long-term underperformance of MSCI World against the US suggests a potential mean reversion [2] - International markets have underperformed for years, indicating a possible shift in investment focus [5] Specific Regional & Sector Highlights - Germany's fiscal policy shift towards rearmament and infrastructure development presents opportunities [4] - European banks are becoming increasingly attractive investment options compared to US banks due to deregulation [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US IG Corporate Credit, while expressing caution towards the USD [3][4]. Core Insights - The US labor market is gradually cooling, with real GDP growth expected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.9% in 2025, and global growth projected to decrease from 3.5% to 2.5% in the same period [2][7]. - Despite a slowing global economy, risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to less negative growth expectations, with a focus on quality investments [2][3]. - The report highlights a preference for quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives in the US, while recommending sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials in Europe [5][6]. Economic Outlook - The report forecasts a step-down in global growth due to tariff impacts and immigration restrictions, with specific GDP growth estimates for 2025: Global at 2.5%, US at 0.9%, Euro Area at 0.8%, Japan at 0.3%, and Emerging Markets at 3.8% [8][12]. - Inflation is expected to peak in the US in Q3 2025, with projections of 2.9% for the US and 1.9% for the Euro Area in 2025 [8][12]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations, while in Japan, it supports domestic reflation beneficiaries and defense-related spending [5][6]. - European recommendations include repositioning into resilient sectors, particularly defense and financials, while in Emerging Markets, the focus is on financials and domestic businesses [5][6]. Credit Market Insights - Credit quality is expected to hold up despite macroeconomic challenges, with a recommendation to focus on higher quality assets and CDX hedges [21][22]. - The report anticipates strong total returns in credit markets, with Bs/CCCs expected to decompress relative to BBs [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a shift towards diversification in investment opportunities, particularly favoring European equities over US equities due to historical valuation spreads and changing market dynamics [5][6][9]. Core Insights - The depreciation of the US dollar and a more resilient Chinese economy are challenging the sustainability of US outperformance, prompting a reconsideration of investment strategies [6][7]. - European companies are expected to return approximately 5% of their market capitalization to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, which is significantly higher than the US average of below 4% [8][9]. - The CAPEX-to-Sales ratio in Europe is nearing a 10-year high, indicating a shift towards growth investments, driven by themes such as infrastructure upgrades and artificial intelligence [9][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The report highlights a broadening of investor opportunities as the case for US exceptionalism is questioned, with valuation spreads between the US and other regions at historical highs [5][6]. - European corporates are beginning to invest for growth at a faster pace than they return capital to shareholders, with CAPEX expected to grow by 3% in 2025 [9][10]. Shareholder Returns - The total shareholder yield in Europe is close to an all-time high, with companies in the STOXX 600 returning around 5% of their market cap annually [8][142]. - The report notes a growing appetite for buybacks among European companies, despite a slight decline in insider buying activity [146][147]. Sector Performance - All sectors in Europe currently offer higher yields than their US counterparts, making the region particularly attractive for income-focused investors [9]. - The report indicates that cyclical sectors have a higher beta of earnings to world GDP compared to defensive sectors, suggesting a potential for greater returns in a recovering economy [22][23].

Market Trends & Diversification - NASDAQ hits a record high, with Nvidia reaching a $4 trillion market cap, prompting a discussion on diversification beyond tech and large-cap stocks [1][2] - The narrative of US exceptionalism is considered overblown, suggesting opportunities outside the US market [3][4] - The market may be underreacting to tariff risks, with earnings reports after July 15th expected to provide more clarity [11][12] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities exist in smaller cap companies, particularly those domestically oriented, potentially benefiting from isolated trade impacts and faster AI implementation [6][7] - Small caps are trading at a significant discount, with EV to sales ratios about half that of large caps, indicating potential for earnings growth and valuation expansion [8] - Security-related sectors, including cyber, food, water, and defense, along with AI, present compelling investment themes [10][11] Small Cap Analysis - An active approach to small-cap investing is favored, rather than solely relying on indices like the Russell 2000 [6] - Smaller cap companies may benefit more quickly from declining rates due to their higher proportion of floating-rate debt [7] - Small-cap banks are crucial for the overall performance of the small-cap sector, presenting an interesting investment opportunity [15][16] Alternative Investments - Private credit is highlighted as an all-weather strategy, with interest shifting from direct lending to niche sectors like real estate debt and asset-backed securities [19][20] - A quantitative approach to analyzing markets, especially small caps, is recommended to synthesize data effectively [17]

Federal Reserve & Economic Policy - The market has largely absorbed the impact of tariffs, with focus shifting to the US deficit issue [5][6][7][8] - The speaker believes the Federal Reserve conversation is important, with rates potentially remaining stickier and higher than anticipated [13] - The market is currently pricing in three to three and a half rate cuts for the remainder of the year, but the speaker is skeptical, anticipating potentially only one cut [12] - The speaker views the recent dollar decline as more of a technical correction due to unhedged global investors rather than a long-term impact on the US economy [9][10] Investment & Market Trends - Global investors are returning to US assets, attracted by the strength and scale of the US economy [19] - Private capital is increasingly driving the economy, playing a significant role in financing, including a $45 billion (four and a half billion dollars) private capital financing deal for a nuclear power plant build in the UK and Germany [20][21][22] - The speaker does not see any immediate red flags in valuation underwriting, noting the US economy's resilience [18][21] - The speaker anticipates approximately 2% growth with about 3% inflation for the fundamental economy [36] European Market & Private Capital - European leadership is embracing private capital to address CapEx needs in areas like transmission lines, transportation, AI, and data centers [26][27] - European banks are increasingly focusing on ROIC and shareholder value, aligning more with US practices [25][31] - Germany aims to grow its economy from $4 trillion (four trillion dollars) to $6 trillion (six trillion dollars), embracing private capital alongside government spending [22][23]