Senior counselor to President Trump for trade and manufacturing, Peter Navara. Peter, always a pleasure. It's wonderful and great to see you again, sir.Can you talk about back with you too long. >> It's been too long is right. Can you tell us more about Trump's new sweeping executive order exempting more than 100 food and ging grocery items from his reciprocal tariffs.Because the media is complaining about this, saying, "Well, we thought he needed tariffs for, you know, national security." >> Well, this one ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming quarterly wage price index is critical for determining the likelihood of an interest rate cut in Australia, with a figure below 3.4% potentially reigniting discussions for a cut in the first half of 2026 [1][2][4]. Wage Growth and Interest Rates - The wage price index currently stands at 3.4%, which aligns with market consensus and the Reserve Bank's forecast, indicating limited chances for a rate cut if this figure is maintained [1][6]. - Wage growth peaked in late 2023 at over 4%, but has since moderated to 3.4%, still higher than much of the past decade [6][10]. - A higher wage growth figure would diminish the prospects for an interest rate cut, suggesting that the current cycle of cuts may have reached its bottom [2][6]. Central Bank and Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate target at 3.6% in October due to higher-than-expected consumer price index inflation at 3.2% [8]. - The RBA's recent meeting minutes are expected to reflect a lack of enthusiasm for further rate cuts, as indicated by Governor Michele Bullock [7]. Banking Sector Scrutiny - Upcoming committee hearings in Canberra will question leaders from the big four banks regarding their practices, including interest rates and their impact on customers and employees [9][12]. - The committee aims to address concerns about the banking system's scrutiny and the timing discrepancies between RBA decisions and bank rate adjustments [12][13].

Core Insights - Growing pessimism among Americans regarding job security and inflation concerns is highlighted in the latest All-America economic survey [1][5] - A significant portion of the public expresses worry about job loss, with 26% concerned, an increase from previous surveys [2] - Despite job loss concerns, 58% of respondents feel confident about finding a similar job if needed [2][3] Job Security Concerns - 51% of the public is not worried about job loss or finding a new job, while 19% express concern [3] - Black and Latino adults show higher levels of concern and lower confidence compared to white adults, with 61% of white adults feeling confident [3] - Women and college graduates also exhibit elevated concerns regarding job security [4] Inflation and Wage Outlook - 75% of Americans report rising prices, with 50% stating that prices are increasing faster than usual [4] - Only 31% of the public anticipates wage increases in the coming year, with just 8% expecting actual increases, marking the lowest outlook since 2021 [5] - The combination of job concerns, rising prices, and stagnant wages contributes to a negative sentiment about the economy, impacting political approval ratings [5] Economic Sentiment and Partisanship - Economic sentiment is more negative among Democrats compared to Republicans, with independents also trending negatively on economic issues [7]

Economic Disparity - The US economy is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with higher-income Americans trending upward while lower-income Americans trend downward [2] - The pay gap between higher and lower-income Americans is at its highest ever, with a nearly 530% pay difference [3] - Wealth inequality is evident in stock ownership, with the wealthiest 1% of households owning about 40% of stocks and the next 19% owning nearly 50% [4] Consumer Spending - Overall consumer spending is strong, but driven largely by higher-income Americans [2] - Spending growth for higher-income households was up 220% in August compared to a 030% year-over-year increase for lower-income households [2] - After-tax wage growth for lower-income households was up 090% year-over-year in August, while for higher-income households, it was up 360% [2] Market Sentiment - Conflicting headlines about economic growth, strong spending, stagnant labor market, and rising prices are contributing to consumer sentiment [1][4]

Labor Market Trends - The US economy has lost 1.2 million jobs since April 2024 [1] - The quits rate is down to about 2% after fluctuating since the pandemic [1] - Employers are hiring at the slowest pace since 2013, excluding the pandemic dip and rise [1] - Almost 1 in 5 job seekers surveyed said they're not confident that they will find a great job that they like [5] - A natural attrition of 20% in a company is mentioned [8] Employee Engagement & Productivity - Four out of five employees surveyed said they're not thriving at work [3] - 58% of US professionals surveyed believe they have a wide range of skills that are being underutilized in their current roles [3] - Employee disengagement adds up to about $5 million a year in lost productivity for a typical 1000 person company [12] - The average disengaged worker could cost the company $4,000 over the course of a year, while an executive could cost $20,000 [12][13] - Globally, low employee engagement is estimated to cost $9.6 trillion annually, or around 9% of global GDP [16] Wage & Bargaining Power - Wage growth has cooled, and job switching premiums have shrunk [6] - The minimum wage has been sitting at the same level since 2009 [19] - Workers have lost a bit of their bargaining power in the current environment [20]

Economic Predictions - A prediction suggests socialism will sweep over the nation, potentially worse than previous issues [1] - Wage growth is stagnant, impacting people across income levels due to increased costs of groceries and home goods [1] - Rent increases annually while salaries remain stagnant, creating financial strain [1] Government Impact - Nearly half of Americans are employed directly or indirectly by the government [2] - Inefficient government allocation of capital contributes to inflation [2]

Macroeconomic Trends - Japan's civil servants are poised for the largest pay raise in 34 years [1] - This pay increase could strengthen the positive feedback loop of wage and price growth [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The Bank of Japan has long sought this virtuous cycle as a prerequisite for further monetary tightening [1]

Employment & Economic Growth - The US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding expectations [1] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1% [1][4] - Average hourly earnings show a 3.7% growth over the past year, indicating compensation for employed individuals [2][11] - The first quarter GDP number came in at 0.5%, indicating a not strong but not weak economy [15] Sector Performance - State government jobs were a significant driver of job growth, contrasting with weaker private sector job growth [3] - The healthcare sector, including residential care facilities and nursing homes, consistently drives employment [6] - Federal government jobs decreased by 7,000, totaling 69,000 cuts so far [5] - Mining, quarrying, manufacturing, and wholesale trade experienced little change, aligning with expectations given trade policy uncertainty [7] Monetary Policy & Consumer Behavior - The possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month decreased from 25% to approximately 2%, suggesting a relatively strong economy [8] - Wage growth was slightly below expectations at 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3% [10] - There's a bifurcation in the labor market, with employed individuals experiencing decent wage growth, while recently unemployed or graduated individuals face some weakness [12] - Consumers are saving more, potentially slowing down spending and economic activity [13][14]

Employment Landscape - The non-farm payrolls report, while stronger than expected, indicates a slowing employment landscape [1] - Headline data decreased compared to the previous month, which was also revised downwards [1] - Employers may be reducing hiring due to tighter financial conditions, while incentivizing current employees with higher wages [1] Wage Growth & Labor Force - Strong wage growth coupled with a lower labor force participation rate was observed [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Continued wage pressures may keep inflation elevated, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - The low unemployment rate provides no immediate impetus for a rate cut [2]

Core Insights - Visa's CFO, Chris Suh, discussed the current spending environment, highlighting consumer sentiment and economic indicators [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Employment numbers are reported to be strong, with stable wage growth contributing to a resilient consumer base [4]. - Inflation has moderated, which has positively impacted consumer spending behavior [4]. Group 2: Spending Trends - There is an observed uncertainty in consumer sentiment, which is reflected in the overall spending trends both domestically and in cross-border transactions [3]. - Despite the noise in the economic environment, Visa relies on factual data to assess the situation [3].