2025 年 10 月 10 日 总量研究 能繁母猪存栏微降，浮法玻璃盈利同比转正 ——金融工程行业景气月报 20251010 要点 行业景气度信号追踪 煤炭：25 年 9 月，煤价低于上年同期，我们预测 25 年 10 月行业利润同比下降， 维持煤炭行业中性观点。 畜牧养殖：25 年 8 月底能繁母猪存栏为 4038 万头，环比微降。据此我们预测 肉价至 26Q1 仍有持稳修复可能，维持中性信号，等待产能明显去化阶段。 普钢：我们预测 25 年 9 月普钢行业利润同比正增长。PMI 滚动均值环比持平， 维持普钢行业中性信号。 结构材料与建筑工程：我们测算 25 年 9 月浮法玻璃毛利同比转正，将玻璃行业 调至景气信号；我们预测水泥行业 25 年 9 月利润同比持平，继续等待房屋新开 工面积出现积极信号，维持水泥行业中性观点；9 月制造业 PMI 滚动均值环比持 平，商品房销售数据同比下降，预计基建托底预期难以发酵，维持建筑装饰行业 中性信号。 燃料型炼化与油服：我们预测燃料型炼化行业 25 年 9 月利润同比正增长。油价 尚未形成同比上行趋势，维持炼化、油服行业中性观点。 风险分析：报告结果均基于模型及历史 ...

新钢股份今年以来股价涨27.63%，近5个交易日涨5.99%，近20日涨7.05%，近60日涨0.47%。 截至6月30日，新钢股份股东户数4.33万，较上期增加14.13%；人均流通股72664股，较上期减少 12.38%。2025年1月-6月，新钢股份实现营业收入175.12亿元，同比减少18.33%；归母净利润1.11亿元， 同比增长247.20%。 分红方面，新钢股份A股上市后累计派现55.84亿元。近三年，累计派现8.16亿元。 今年以来新钢股份已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为2月26日，当日龙虎榜净买入4413.34万 元；买入总计1.64亿元 ，占总成交额比27.86%；卖出总计1.20亿元 ，占总成交额比20.39%。 资料显示，新余钢铁股份有限公司位于江西省新余市冶金路1号，成立日期2003年10月10日，上市日期 1996年12月25日，公司主营业务涉及钢铁冶炼、钢材轧制及钢材延伸加工及其产品的制造、销售。主营 业务收入构成为：钢材及钢绞线收入89.63%，其他收入10.37%。 新钢股份所属申万行业为：钢铁-普钢-板材。所属概念板块包括：低价、中盘、融资融券、增持回购、 央企改革 ...

华菱钢铁今年以来股价涨59.03%，近5个交易日涨1.41%，近20日涨12.09%，近60日涨21.76%。 分红方面，华菱钢铁A股上市后累计派现104.36亿元。近三年，累计派现39.34亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，华菱钢铁十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股1.34亿股，相比上期增加243.10万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第八大流通股东， 持股6146.62万股，相比上期增加839.13万股。华泰柏瑞富利混合A（004475）退出十大流通股东之列。 资料显示，湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司位于湖南省长沙市天心区湘府西路222号，成立日期1999年4月29 日，上市日期1999年8月3日，公司主营业务涉及钢材产品的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：板材 46.31%，其他业务及产品25.15%，长材19.28%，钢管9.26%。 华菱钢铁所属申万行业为：钢铁-普钢-板材。所属概念板块包括：湖南国资、油气管网、新能源车、增 持回购、MSCI中国等。 截至6月30日，华菱钢铁股东户数9.03万，较上期增加19.94%；人均流通股76500股，较上期减少 ...

长源电力：9月完成发电量27.42亿千瓦时 同比降低41.88% 10月9日晚，长源电力（000966）发布公告称，公司9月完成发电量27.42亿千瓦时，同比降低41.88%。 其中火电发电量同比降低47.10%，水电发电量同比增长557.61%，新能源发电量同比降低43.24%。 公司1-9月累计完成发电量273.32亿千瓦时，同比降低8.24%。其中火电累计发电量同比降低9.40%，水 电累计发电量同比降低9.55%，新能源累计发电量同比增长6.21%。 资料显示，长源电力成立于1995年4月，主营业务是电力、热力生产和经营。 所属行业：公用事业–电力–火力发电 环旭电子：9月合并营业收入为59.6亿元 10月9日晚，环旭电子（601231）发布公告称，公司9月合并营业收入为59.6亿元，同比增加0.1%，环比 增加7.23%。公司2025年1月至9月合并营业收入为436.41亿元，同比减少0.83%。公司2025年第三季度 （2025年7月至9月）合并营业收入为164.27亿元，同比减少1.16%，环比增加21.10%。 资料显示，环旭电子成立于2003年1月，主营业务是全球电子制造设计，通过为品牌客户 ...

证券之星消息，10月9日普钢板块较上一交易日上涨2.33%，包钢股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3933.97，上涨1.32%。深证成指报收于13725.56，上涨1.47%。普钢板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600010 | 包钢股份 | 2.58 | 8.40% | 1936.84万 | 49.35 Z | | 600581 | 八一钢铁 | 4.69 | 8.06% | 111.60万 | 5.17亿 | | 600307 | 酒钢宏兴 | 1.72 | 5.52% | 119.80万 | 2.04亿 | | 600231 | 凌钢股份 | 2.15 | 5.39% | 1 35.86万 | 7537.85万 | | 600022 | 山东钢铁 | 1.57 | 5.37% | 158.08万 | 2.44亿 | | 000709 | 河钢股份 | 2.67 | 5.12% | 192.40万 | 5.09亿 | | 600569 | 安阳钢铁 | 2 ...

分红方面，宝钢股份A股上市后累计派现1264.92亿元。近三年，累计派现160.78亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入1420.48万元，特大单买入1.00亿元，占比12.49%，卖出7500.49万元， 占比9.33%；大单买入2.13亿元，占比26.55%，卖出2.25亿元，占比27.94%。 宝钢股份今年以来股价涨6.43%，近5个交易日涨5.25%，近20日涨2.97%，近60日涨4.15%。 10月9日，宝钢股份盘中上涨2.12%，截至13:02，报7.22元/股，成交8.04亿元，换手率0.52%，总市值 1572.67亿元。 资料显示，宝山钢铁股份有限公司位于上海市宝山区富锦路885号宝钢指挥中心，成立日期2000年2月3 日，上市日期2000年12月12日，公司主营业务涉及钢铁业、贸易、航运、煤化工、信息服务等业务。主 营业务收入构成为：冷轧碳钢板卷51.22%，热轧碳钢板卷28.50%，厚板产品7.47%，钢管产品5.76%， 长材产品4.49%，其他钢铁产品1.89%，其他(补充)0.67%。 宝钢股份所属申万行业为：钢铁-普钢-板材。所属概念板块包括：破净股、长期破净、中特估、证金汇 ...

10月9日，华菱钢铁盘中下跌2.00%，截至09:49，报6.36元/股，成交1.36亿元，换手率0.31%，总市值 439.39亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入629.17万元，特大单买入731.13万元，占比5.39%，卖出489.44万元，占 比3.61%；大单买入2934.97万元，占比21.64%，卖出2547.49万元，占比18.79%。 华菱钢铁今年以来股价涨55.84%，近5个交易日涨1.92%，近20日涨6.18%，近60日涨22.78%。 资料显示，湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司位于湖南省长沙市天心区湘府西路222号，成立日期1999年4月29 日，上市日期1999年8月3日，公司主营业务涉及钢材产品的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：板材 46.31%，其他业务及产品25.15%，长材19.28%，钢管9.26%。 分红方面，华菱钢铁A股上市后累计派现104.36亿元。近三年，累计派现39.34亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，华菱钢铁十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股1.34亿股，相比上期增加243.10万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位 ...

Market Performance - On September 30, the general steel sector rose by 1.13%, with Wujin Stainless Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Wujin Stainless Steel (603878) closed at 10.17, up 8.89% with a trading volume of 553,900 shares and a turnover of 555 million [1] - Shougang Co. (000959) closed at 4.26, up 4.41% with a trading volume of 1,005,900 shares and a turnover of 431 million [1] - Hebei Steel (000709) closed at 2.54, up 2.42% with a trading volume of 1,286,600 shares and a turnover of 325 million [1] - Other notable performers include Anyang Iron & Steel (600569) up 2.30%, and Baotou Steel (600010) up 1.71% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The steel sector experienced a net outflow of 219 million from institutional investors and 136 million from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 354 million [2] - The capital flow data indicates that major stocks like Baotou Steel and Ansteel experienced mixed capital movements, with Baotou Steel seeing a net inflow of 60.38 million from major investors [3] Summary of Capital Movements - Baotou Steel (600010) had a net inflow of 60.38 million from major investors, while it faced a net outflow of 45.76 million from speculative funds [3] - Wujin Stainless Steel (603878) saw a net inflow of 8.36 million from major investors but a net outflow of 10.09 million from speculative funds [3] - Overall, the data reflects a trend of retail investors actively participating in the market while institutional and speculative funds are withdrawing [2][3]

Group 1 - Pingzhi Information has been selected as the eighth candidate for the "2025 China Unicom General Server Centralized Procurement Project" with a bid amount of approximately 451 million yuan [1] - The project involves the procurement of general servers primarily for cloud computing infrastructure [1] - Pingzhi Information was established in November 2002 and focuses on communication equipment, computing power, and operator equity products [1] Group 2 - Betta Pharmaceuticals has submitted an application for the issuance of H shares and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - Betta Pharmaceuticals was founded in January 2003 and specializes in the production and sales of innovative drugs [2] Group 3 - Guangli Micro plans to sign an agreement with Zhejiang University to establish a joint research center for silicon photonics technology and measurement equipment [3] - The company will invest no less than 15 million yuan over three years for the center's development [3] - Guangli Micro was founded in August 2003 and provides a range of services including integrated circuit manufacturing and design [3] Group 4 - Shanhe Pharmaceutical's controlling shareholder and actual controller has changed due to the passing of Yin Zhenglong, with his wife and daughter inheriting shares [4] - After the change, Wu Changhong holds 20.172% of the total shares, while Yin Zhiya holds 6.724% [4] - Shanhe Pharmaceutical was established in April 2001 and focuses on the research, production, and sales of pharmaceutical excipients [5] Group 5 - Hengwei Technology plans to acquire 75% of Shanghai Shuhang Information Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment [6] - The acquisition will make Shuhang Technology a subsidiary of Hengwei Technology [6] - Hengwei Technology was founded in March 2003 and specializes in intelligent system solutions [7] Group 6 - Shougang Co. intends to repurchase its A-shares for an amount between 260 million yuan and 520 million yuan [8] - The repurchase will be used for implementing an equity incentive plan [8] - Shougang Co. was established in October 1999 and focuses on the production and sales of steel products [9] Group 7 - Pulit plans to build a 6GWh sodium-ion battery production base in Sichuan with a total investment of approximately 800 million yuan [10] - The project will be constructed in two phases, with the first phase having a capacity of 2GWh [10] - Pulit was founded in October 1999 and specializes in high polymer new materials and battery production [10] Group 8 - Saisir has proposed a cash dividend of 3.1 yuan per 10 shares for its A-share shareholders [10] - Saisir was established in May 2007 and focuses on the research, manufacturing, and sales of new energy vehicles [10] Group 9 - Guangyang Co. plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary for the development of precision components for robots [11] - The investment is part of a project to produce high-end components for new energy vehicles and robots [11] - Guangyang Co. was founded in April 1995 and specializes in precision components for various vehicles and equipment [11] Group 10 - Conch New Materials intends to acquire a 51% stake in North China Industrial Plastics Co., Ltd. for approximately 95.27 million yuan [12] - The acquisition will make North China Plastics a subsidiary of Conch New Materials [12] - Conch New Materials was established in October 1996 and focuses on the production and sales of plastic profiles and aluminum profiles [12] Group 11 - Daikin Heavy Industries has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [13] - The company specializes in the production and sales of offshore wind power equipment [13] - Daikin Heavy Industries was founded in September 2003 [13] Group 12 - Tengya Precision plans to invest up to 8 million USD to establish a subsidiary in Vietnam for the production of garden robots and electric tools [14] - The project will involve leasing a factory in Dong Nai Province [14] - Tengya Precision was established in August 2000 and focuses on power tools and building hardware [15] Group 13 - Luoxin Pharmaceutical plans to raise up to 207 million yuan through a private placement for innovative drug research and development [16] - The funds will primarily support clinical research for specific innovative drugs [16] - Luoxin Pharmaceutical was founded in May 1998 and specializes in pharmaceutical product development [17] Group 14 - *ST Guohua's subsidiary has become the first candidate for a project with a bid of 236 million yuan [18] - The project involves a 90-day construction period [18] - *ST Guohua was established in May 1986 and focuses on mobile network security [19] Group 15 - Su Chen Technology plans to acquire 60% of Likong Technology for a total price of 192 million yuan [20] - The acquisition will make Likong Technology a secondary subsidiary of Su Chen Technology [20] - Su Chen Technology was founded in February 2006 and specializes in CAE software development [21] Group 16 - Qingmu Technology's major shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 276,000 shares [22] - The reduction is due to the shareholder's financial needs [22] - Qingmu Technology was established in August 2009 and provides comprehensive e-commerce operation services [23] Group 17 - Tongda Sea plans to acquire 40% of Jiangsu Sufuda Data Technology Co., Ltd. for 25.64 million yuan [24] - The acquisition will result in Tongda Sea holding 100% of Sufuda [24] - Tongda Sea was founded in March 1995 and provides information technology services for electronic government affairs [24] Group 18 - Rongsheng Development has signed a memorandum of cooperation to promote the development of the seaplane industry [25] - The cooperation will focus on infrastructure construction and talent training [25] - Rongsheng Development was established in December 1996 and specializes in real estate development [26] Group 19 - Jinma Amusement plans to repurchase 16.52% of its subsidiary for 60 million yuan [28] - The repurchase will convert the subsidiary into a wholly-owned entity [28] - Jinma Amusement was founded in November 2007 and focuses on amusement facilities and projects [28] Group 20 - Huilv Ecology plans to acquire 49% of Junheng Technology for 1.127 billion yuan [29] - The acquisition will make Junheng Technology a wholly-owned subsidiary [29] - Huilv Ecology was established in January 1990 and specializes in optical communication products and landscape engineering [30]

9月30日，河钢股份盘中上涨2.02%，截至09:52，报2.53元/股，成交9330.48万元，换手率0.36%，总市 值261.53亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入423.61万元，特大单买入1469.26万元，占比15.75%，卖出745.43万元， 占比7.99%；大单买入2135.22万元，占比22.88%，卖出2435.44万元，占比26.10%。 河钢股份今年以来股价涨16.06%，近5个交易日涨5.42%，近20日涨4.12%，近60日涨9.05%。 资料显示，河钢股份有限公司位于河北省石家庄市体育南大街385号，成立日期1997年1月18日，上市日 期1997年4月16日，公司主营业务涉及黑色金属冶炼及压延加工、钢材轧制、金属制品。主营业务收入 构成为：板材70.92%，气体、水电等其他产品9.84%，棒材及型材8.68%，其他(补充)4.20%，钢坯 3.40%，线材、带钢等1.83%，钒产品1.13%。 河钢股份所属申万行业为：钢铁-普钢-板材。所属概念板块包括：创投、低价、中盘、京津冀、融资融 券等。 截至9月19日，河钢股份股东户数23.38万，较上期减少0.56%；人均流通股4 ...