投资要点： 事件：2026 年 3 月 4 日，国家统计局公布 2 月中国采购经理指数。制造 业 PMI 为 49.0%，服务业为 49.7%，建筑业为 48.2%。 固定收益点评报告 2026 年 03 月 04 日 证券研究报告 2 月 PMI 数据点评：春节扰动下景气走弱，结构分化延续 [Table_Author] 董利 分析师 陈国文 分析师 Email:dongli@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320525070001 证书:S1320524070001 制造业景气度连续回落，供需同步走弱。2 月制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%， 较上月下降 0.3 个百分点，连续两个月落入收缩区间，修复动能再度放 缓。2 月制造业景气度回落，主要受春节等季节性因素影响，具体呈现 三大特征：一是需求连续回落，内需与外需指数均连续下降；二是供给 端收缩，生产放缓重回收缩区间，库存配送用工均转弱；三是价格压力 边际缓解，但企业采购意愿仍偏弱。 需求连续回落，外需承压更为明显。新订单指数录得 48.6%，较上月下 降 0.6 个百分点，连续两个月落入收缩区间。新出口订单 ...

- The report tracks the prosperity signals of various industries, including coal, livestock farming, steel, structural materials, and fuel refining industries[9] - The coal industry revenue and profit growth are estimated monthly based on price and capacity factors[10] - The livestock farming industry uses the farrowing sow inventory and the slaughter coefficient method to estimate the supply-demand gap for pigs six months later[15][16] - The steel industry profit growth and per-ton profit are predicted using comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators such as iron ore, coke, and scrap steel[18] - The structural materials and construction engineering industries' profitability changes are tracked using price and cost indicators for glass and cement manufacturing[24] - The fuel refining and oil service industries' profit growth and cracking spread are estimated based on changes in fuel oil prices and crude oil prices[27] - The coal industry profit growth for February 2026 is predicted to be slightly negative due to a slight year-on-year decrease in coal prices[14] - The livestock farming industry predicts a potential pig supply of 166.51 million heads for Q2 2026, with a demand forecast of 171.43 million heads, indicating a slightly tight supply-demand balance[17] - The steel industry profit growth for January 2026 is predicted to be slightly negative, with the rolling 12-period PMI average not exceeding the threshold[22] - The glass industry gross profit for January 2026 is predicted to continue its year-on-year negative growth[26] - The cement industry profit for January 2026 is predicted to continue its year-on-year negative growth, with no significant increase in new housing starts[26] - The fuel refining industry profit for January 2026 is predicted to slightly decrease year-on-year[27][28]

Group 1: Machinery Industry - In December 2025, the total sales of excavators in China increased by 19.2% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports growing by 10.9% and 26.9% respectively. For the entire year of 2025, total excavator sales rose by 17.0%, with domestic and export sales increasing by 17.9% and 16.1% respectively [2] - In December 2025, total sales of loaders in China grew by 30.0% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports increasing by 17.6% and 41.5% respectively. For the full year of 2025, total loader sales increased by 18.4%, with domestic and export sales rising by 22.1% and 14.6% respectively [2] - The growth in excavator and loader sales is attributed to the peak construction season and overseas channel restocking. The demand for machinery is expected to continue growing in 2026 due to ongoing replacement needs, contributions from projects, and trends towards electrification [2] Group 2: Robotics Industry - According to Omdia, Zhiyuan Robotics topped the global humanoid robot shipment rankings with over 5,100 units shipped, capturing 39% of the global market share. The top six companies in humanoid robot shipments in 2025 are all Chinese, accounting for 86.9% of global shipments [3] - Recent financing activities in the robotics sector include Qiangna Technology raising approximately 2 billion RMB, and Mobileye announcing a $900 million acquisition of the humanoid startup Mentee Robotic. Other companies like Lingxin Qiaoshou and Xingjiguan also completed new financing rounds [3] - New product launches include Boston Dynamics' new generation Atlas humanoid robot, which has entered production, and Xiaopeng Motors announcing the mass production of its humanoid robot in 2026 [5] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The manufacturing PMI in China rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1% in December 2025, indicating a return to expansion. This improvement is driven by the effects of policy implementation and pre-holiday inventory preparations [6] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the machinery industry, highlighting the potential for sustained growth in performance for major machinery manufacturers due to resonating domestic and international demand [6] - The report suggests focusing on the engineering machinery sector (e.g., XCMG, SANY Heavy Industry) and the rapidly growing humanoid robotics sector (e.g., Estun, Greentech) as areas of significant investment opportunity [6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a recovery in the overall industry, with consumer goods leading the major categories [1] Core Insights - The national PMI for December is 50.1, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the recent average [1][3] - The production index has rebounded to 51.7, with a month-on-month increase of 1.7 percentage points, while the new orders index has risen to 50.8, up by 1.6 percentage points [4][9] - The highest absolute values among industries this month are in pharmaceuticals, clothing, transportation, and communication, while the highest month-on-month increases are seen in petroleum, clothing, and timber [1][3] Summary by Sections Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI index stands at 50.1, with 4 industries above 50 and 11 below [3] - The highest PMI is in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector at 58.9, while the lowest is in general equipment manufacturing at 40.7 [3] New Orders Index - The new orders index is at 50.8, with 3 industries above 50 and 8 below [4] - The highest new orders index is also in pharmaceuticals at 62.5, while the lowest is in petroleum processing at 35.7 [5][6] Profit Trend Index - The profit trend index for manufacturing is -2.3, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.1 percentage points [7] - The highest profit trend index is in the automotive manufacturing sector at 9.3, while the lowest is in non-ferrous metal smelting at -25 [7][10] Production Index - The production index is at 51.7, with 5 industries above 50 and 9 below [9] - The highest production index is in the textile and apparel sector at 67.9, while the lowest is in general equipment manufacturing at 38.9 [9] Purchase Price Index - The purchase price index is at 53.1, down by 0.5 percentage points from last month [13] - The highest purchase price index is in non-ferrous metal smelting at 68.8, while the lowest is in petroleum processing at 32.1 [13][14] Finished Goods Inventory Index - The finished goods inventory index is at 48.2, with 4 industries above 50 and 10 below [17] - The highest inventory index is in pharmaceuticals at 55, while the lowest is in metal products at 31.3 [17] Export Orders Index - The export orders index is at 49, with 3 industries above 50 and 8 below [18] - The highest export orders index is in textiles at 62.5, while the lowest is in agricultural products at 33.3 [19][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery in November 2025, driven by improvements in both production and demand, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.2% and the production index increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0% [2][3] - The new orders index also saw an increase of 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, while new export orders rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, reflecting a positive impact from the recent US-China trade discussions [3] - The report highlights that large enterprises' manufacturing PMI fell by 0.6 percentage points to 49.3%, remaining below the threshold, while medium and small enterprises showed improvements, with medium enterprises rising by 0.2 percentage points to 48.9% and small enterprises increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 49.1%, marking the second-highest level this year [3] Group 2 - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 49.5%, the lowest level since 2023, with the construction sector showing a slight recovery while the service sector declined due to the end of holiday effects [4] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating a contraction, primarily due to the decline in the non-manufacturing sector offsetting the manufacturing recovery [4] - Overall, the report suggests that the improvement in manufacturing sentiment is mainly attributed to a stabilizing external environment, with expectations for continued improvement in December due to forthcoming policy deployments [4]

Summary of the Tooling and PCB Drill Needle Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tooling industry is currently facing challenges due to price wars, leading to poor profit performance. However, several companies have raised prices by double digits, with increases exceeding 50% in some cases. If overseas companies continue to raise prices, domestic firms may follow suit, potentially improving profitability [1][3] - The manufacturing sector is expected to bottom out around 2025 or 2026, with medium to long-term loan data being a key indicator. Tooling orders are anticipated to continue growing, but the growth rate needs to be monitored. The PCB drill needle sector is performing well, although companies are cautious about expanding production [1][4] Market Size and Growth Potential - The Chinese PCB drill needle market was approximately 2.1 billion RMB in 2020, while the global market was around 15.1 billion RMB. It is projected to exceed 10 billion RMB by 2030, indicating significant market potential [1][5] - Tungsten carbide is the primary material for drill needles, and the market share of diamond-coated drill bits is expected to increase. Companies like Ward are making progress in the diamond micro-drill field, and technological breakthroughs may become a future trend [1][6] Raw Material Price Impact - Tungsten carbide powder and cobalt powder account for over 60% of tooling costs. The price of tungsten carbide powder has surged from approximately 300 RMB/kg at the end of March to over 700 RMB/kg, more than doubling. This has led to price increases in the tooling sector, but the lag between rising costs and price adjustments may affect company performance in Q4 and Q1 of the following year [1][7] - China holds 50% of the world's tungsten resources and has implemented a quota system since 2002. A decrease in quotas this year is likely to continue, which may keep tungsten carbide powder prices elevated, exerting cost pressure upstream [1][8] Competitive Landscape - The tooling industry has a high concentration, with leading companies like Ding Tai High-Tech and Jingzhou Zhonggao New Material holding significant market shares and expanding rapidly. Ding Tai's market share is approximately 26.5% [2][11] - The demand for tooling is expected to grow alongside the PCB sector, particularly driven by server demand. The industry is characterized by a few dominant players, with Ding Tai and Jingzhou Zhonggao being the primary leaders [10][11] Future Trends and Recommendations - The order growth in the tooling industry is currently positive, but sustaining this growth rate is uncertain due to potential stockpiling effects. Prices are expected to continue rising, which could help the industry escape the long-standing price war and achieve healthy development [12] - The PCB drill needle segment is performing well, and leading companies are likely to maintain their competitive advantages through scale and R&D capabilities. It is recommended to focus on Ding Tai and Zhong Tung as they may continue to solidify their market positions and expand their competitive edge [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the likelihood of introducing additional stimulus policies in Q4 this year is low, primarily due to manageable growth pressures and positive developments in US-China tariff negotiations [1] - The manufacturing sector's recovery is weaker than market expectations, with a notable decline in manufacturing activity in October, primarily driven by production issues [1] - The drop in manufacturing activity is attributed to two main pressures: the impact of the October holiday leading to fewer working days and adjustments in production capacity by some companies following the implementation of anti-involution policies [1] Group 2 - In contrast to the manufacturing sector, the non-manufacturing sector saw a rebound in October, mainly supported by a recovery in the service industry [2] - The construction industry, while still in a contraction phase, shows signs of stabilization, with core constraints to recovery stemming from weakness in real estate-related sectors [2] - There is a trend of increased infrastructure investment activities, and if the pace of funding for infrastructure projects accelerates, it could provide stronger support for the recovery of the construction industry [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September 2025 improved to 50.6%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing sentiment[3] - The production index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, reflecting a significant acceleration in production pace[4] - New orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, still below the critical threshold[4] - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 51.0%, while small enterprises saw a notable improvement of 1.6 percentage points to 48.2%[4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, remaining at the dividing line[5] - The construction sector's business activity index slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, still in contraction territory[5] - The service sector's business activity index declined by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, influenced by the end of the summer season[5] Group 3: Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing, which offset the short-term decline in non-manufacturing[5] - Future manufacturing recovery depends on timely macro policy support and external environment stability[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract shows a volatile pattern, with fluctuating crude oil prices, a peak season for agricultural film demand but still weaker than previous years, and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the main - contract is also volatile, with fluctuating crude oil prices, increasing demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export value in August was $321.81 billion, a 4.4% year - on - year increase but a decline from July. The crude oil price has been fluctuating recently. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7160 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 21, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - economic indicators. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increasing demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 123, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.8%, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (- 30,000 tons), which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7160 (+10), the 01 - contract price is 7181 (+22), the basis is - 21 (- 12), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), and the social PE inventory is 525,000 tons (- 10,000 tons) [9]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+0), the 01 - contract price is 6903 (+10), the basis is - 123 (- 10), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons (0), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (0) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with changes in the growth rate. The import dependence has also gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 26, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market for LLDPE and PP is expected to be volatile. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, with a weak demand compared to previous years, a bearish basis, a neutral inventory, a bearish trend on the disk, and a net short position of the main contract. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish, with a weak demand, a bearish basis, a neutral inventory, a bearish trend on the disk, and an increasing net short position of the main contract [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating. The agricultural film market is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film market is mainly driven by rigid demand. The downstream operating rate has increased, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of the LLDPE delivery product is 7130 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -39, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.5%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The disk of the LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating, the demand for agricultural film is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PE market will be volatile today [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The downstream market is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic woven products is stable. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6750 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -148, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.1%, which is bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The disk of the PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating, the demand for downstream products is stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PP market will be volatile today [6]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7130, up 10; the price of the 01 contract is 7169, up 27; the basis is -39, down 17; the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 509,000 tons, down 42,000; and the PE social inventory is 535,000 tons, down 12,000 [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6750, unchanged; the price of the 01 contract is 6898, up 21; the basis is -148, down 21; the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons, down 30,000; and the PP social inventory is 286,000 tons, up 3,000 [9]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, and the import dependence has decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].