宏观数据点评报告 制造业景气度进一步改善，小型企业改善明显 ――2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 | 究 | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | | SAC NO： | | | S1150514080001 | | | 年 2025 9 | 10 | 月 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 事件：2025 年 | 9 | 月 | 30 | 日，统计局公布了 | PMI | 数据，9 | 月制造业采购经理指 | | | | 宋亦威 022-23861608 SAC NO:S1150514080001 songyw@bhzq.com [Table_Author] 严佩佩 022-23839070 SAC NO:S1150520110001 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛芃[Table_IndInvest] 02 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract shows a volatile pattern, with fluctuating crude oil prices, a peak season for agricultural film demand but still weaker than previous years, and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the main - contract is also volatile, with fluctuating crude oil prices, increasing demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export value in August was $321.81 billion, a 4.4% year - on - year increase but a decline from July. The crude oil price has been fluctuating recently. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7160 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 21, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - economic indicators. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increasing demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 123, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.8%, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (- 30,000 tons), which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7160 (+10), the 01 - contract price is 7181 (+22), the basis is - 21 (- 12), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), and the social PE inventory is 525,000 tons (- 10,000 tons) [9]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+0), the 01 - contract price is 6903 (+10), the basis is - 123 (- 10), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons (0), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (0) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with changes in the growth rate. The import dependence has also gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-26 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。美联储降息落地，原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导 人通话同意平等磋商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，农膜逐渐进入旺季，包装膜以刚需为主， 下游开工提升，但整体需求仍较往年偏弱。当前LL交割品现货价7130（+10），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-39，升贴水比例-0.5%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存 ...

聚烯烃早报 2025-9-25 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。美联储降息落地，原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导 人通话同意平等磋商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，农膜逐渐进入旺季，包装膜以刚需为主， 下游开工提升，但整体需求仍较往年偏弱。当前LL交割品现货价7120（-30），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-22，升贴水比例-0.3%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.9万吨（-4.2），中性； • 4. 盘面： ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 18, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today, with geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the agricultural film demand entering the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being moderately high [4]. - The PP market is also expected to fluctuate today, with geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, improving demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving, and moderately high industrial inventory [7]. Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's exports in August were $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7,230 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -15, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is improving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6,850 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -132, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.9%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [8]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,230, the price of the 01 contract is 7,245, the basis is -15, the number of warehouse receipts is 12,736, and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,850, the price of the 01 contract is 6,982, the basis is -132, the number of warehouse receipts is 13,706, and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity and output of polyethylene have generally increased, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity and output of polypropylene have also increased, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

Manufacturing Sector Insights - July manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the sector[2] - Production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while new orders index dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, returning to the contraction zone[2] - New export orders declined by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, influenced by weakened export demand amid global manufacturing slowdowns[2] Price and Inventory Trends - Raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices showed a significant slowdown in contraction due to rising international crude oil prices and domestic price adjustments[2] - Overall inventory levels for raw materials and finished goods continued to decrease, indicating a sustained destocking trend[2] Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3%, while small enterprises' PMI dropped to 46.4%, both down by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Medium-sized enterprises saw a slight recovery, with PMI increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 49.5%[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, remaining above the expansion threshold[3] - The construction sector's index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, impacted by extreme weather conditions affecting construction progress[3] - Service sector index slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, indicating stability at the threshold[3] Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%, reflecting a slowdown in economic expansion[3] - Future outlook suggests continued pressure on manufacturing due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions, with potential for further declines in August[3]

Group 1 - The Private Economy Promotion Law was passed and will take effect on May 20, 2025, aiming to optimize the development environment for the private economy and ensure fair market competition [1][3] - China's official manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49, down from 50.5, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment [1][3] - The Ministry of Market Regulation has launched a special action to rectify irregular charges related to enterprises, focusing on key areas and issues [2][3] Group 2 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has revised the index compilation plan for the ChiNext board to enhance investment viability [15] - The first quarter GDP of the United States decreased by 0.3%, marking the first contraction since 2022 [21] - The ADP employment figures for April in the U.S. showed an increase of only 62,000 jobs, significantly below expectations [22] Group 3 - The Gansu Civil Aviation Airport Group announced an increase in borrowings of 2.706 billion yuan, which accounts for 122.77% of its net assets at the end of the previous year [7] - Xiangyang Housing Investment Co., Ltd. reported a total external guarantee balance of 2.491 billion yuan, representing 20.97% of its net assets at the end of the previous year [8] - Shenzhen Zhenye Group Co., Ltd. announced a net loss of 1.568 billion yuan for 2024, which is 29.02% of its net assets [10]

Group 1 - The five departments, including the People's Bank of China, emphasized support for private enterprises to grow through capital markets, focusing on implementing policies to alleviate financing difficulties [2] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.2% in February, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing activity [3] - DeepSeek's reported theoretical daily profit of 3.46 million RMB was clarified to be overstated, as actual income is lower due to pricing and service structure [4] Group 2 - Xpeng Motors delivered 30,453 vehicles in February, a year-on-year increase of 570.03%, while Li Auto and Leap Motor also reported significant growth in deliveries [5] - BYD's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 623,400 units in the first two months, marking a year-on-year growth of 92.52% [12] - Geely's February vehicle sales were 204,900 units, reflecting an approximate 84% year-on-year increase [14]