Summary of the Tooling and PCB Drill Needle Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tooling industry is currently facing challenges due to price wars, leading to poor profit performance. However, several companies have raised prices by double digits, with increases exceeding 50% in some cases. If overseas companies continue to raise prices, domestic firms may follow suit, potentially improving profitability [1][3] - The manufacturing sector is expected to bottom out around 2025 or 2026, with medium to long-term loan data being a key indicator. Tooling orders are anticipated to continue growing, but the growth rate needs to be monitored. The PCB drill needle sector is performing well, although companies are cautious about expanding production [1][4] Market Size and Growth Potential - The Chinese PCB drill needle market was approximately 2.1 billion RMB in 2020, while the global market was around 15.1 billion RMB. It is projected to exceed 10 billion RMB by 2030, indicating significant market potential [1][5] - Tungsten carbide is the primary material for drill needles, and the market share of diamond-coated drill bits is expected to increase. Companies like Ward are making progress in the diamond micro-drill field, and technological breakthroughs may become a future trend [1][6] Raw Material Price Impact - Tungsten carbide powder and cobalt powder account for over 60% of tooling costs. The price of tungsten carbide powder has surged from approximately 300 RMB/kg at the end of March to over 700 RMB/kg, more than doubling. This has led to price increases in the tooling sector, but the lag between rising costs and price adjustments may affect company performance in Q4 and Q1 of the following year [1][7] - China holds 50% of the world's tungsten resources and has implemented a quota system since 2002. A decrease in quotas this year is likely to continue, which may keep tungsten carbide powder prices elevated, exerting cost pressure upstream [1][8] Competitive Landscape - The tooling industry has a high concentration, with leading companies like Ding Tai High-Tech and Jingzhou Zhonggao New Material holding significant market shares and expanding rapidly. Ding Tai's market share is approximately 26.5% [2][11] - The demand for tooling is expected to grow alongside the PCB sector, particularly driven by server demand. The industry is characterized by a few dominant players, with Ding Tai and Jingzhou Zhonggao being the primary leaders [10][11] Future Trends and Recommendations - The order growth in the tooling industry is currently positive, but sustaining this growth rate is uncertain due to potential stockpiling effects. Prices are expected to continue rising, which could help the industry escape the long-standing price war and achieve healthy development [12] - The PCB drill needle segment is performing well, and leading companies are likely to maintain their competitive advantages through scale and R&D capabilities. It is recommended to focus on Ding Tai and Zhong Tung as they may continue to solidify their market positions and expand their competitive edge [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the likelihood of introducing additional stimulus policies in Q4 this year is low, primarily due to manageable growth pressures and positive developments in US-China tariff negotiations [1] - The manufacturing sector's recovery is weaker than market expectations, with a notable decline in manufacturing activity in October, primarily driven by production issues [1] - The drop in manufacturing activity is attributed to two main pressures: the impact of the October holiday leading to fewer working days and adjustments in production capacity by some companies following the implementation of anti-involution policies [1] Group 2 - In contrast to the manufacturing sector, the non-manufacturing sector saw a rebound in October, mainly supported by a recovery in the service industry [2] - The construction industry, while still in a contraction phase, shows signs of stabilization, with core constraints to recovery stemming from weakness in real estate-related sectors [2] - There is a trend of increased infrastructure investment activities, and if the pace of funding for infrastructure projects accelerates, it could provide stronger support for the recovery of the construction industry [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September 2025 improved to 50.6%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing sentiment[3] - The production index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, reflecting a significant acceleration in production pace[4] - New orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, still below the critical threshold[4] - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 51.0%, while small enterprises saw a notable improvement of 1.6 percentage points to 48.2%[4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, remaining at the dividing line[5] - The construction sector's business activity index slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, still in contraction territory[5] - The service sector's business activity index declined by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, influenced by the end of the summer season[5] Group 3: Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing, which offset the short-term decline in non-manufacturing[5] - Future manufacturing recovery depends on timely macro policy support and external environment stability[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract shows a volatile pattern, with fluctuating crude oil prices, a peak season for agricultural film demand but still weaker than previous years, and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the main - contract is also volatile, with fluctuating crude oil prices, increasing demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export value in August was $321.81 billion, a 4.4% year - on - year increase but a decline from July. The crude oil price has been fluctuating recently. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7160 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 21, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - economic indicators. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increasing demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 123, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.8%, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (- 30,000 tons), which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7160 (+10), the 01 - contract price is 7181 (+22), the basis is - 21 (- 12), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), and the social PE inventory is 525,000 tons (- 10,000 tons) [9]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+0), the 01 - contract price is 6903 (+10), the basis is - 123 (- 10), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons (0), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (0) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with changes in the growth rate. The import dependence has also gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 26, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market for LLDPE and PP is expected to be volatile. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, with a weak demand compared to previous years, a bearish basis, a neutral inventory, a bearish trend on the disk, and a net short position of the main contract. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish, with a weak demand, a bearish basis, a neutral inventory, a bearish trend on the disk, and an increasing net short position of the main contract [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating. The agricultural film market is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film market is mainly driven by rigid demand. The downstream operating rate has increased, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of the LLDPE delivery product is 7130 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -39, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.5%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The disk of the LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating, the demand for agricultural film is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PE market will be volatile today [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The downstream market is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic woven products is stable. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6750 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -148, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.1%, which is bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The disk of the PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating, the demand for downstream products is stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PP market will be volatile today [6]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7130, up 10; the price of the 01 contract is 7169, up 27; the basis is -39, down 17; the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 509,000 tons, down 42,000; and the PE social inventory is 535,000 tons, down 12,000 [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6750, unchanged; the price of the 01 contract is 6898, up 21; the basis is -148, down 21; the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons, down 30,000; and the PP social inventory is 286,000 tons, up 3,000 [9]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, and the import dependence has decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract's disk is weakly volatile, with the Fed's interest - rate cut implemented, recent oil price fluctuations, the agricultural film demand entering the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being moderately high. For PP, the main - contract's disk is also weakly volatile, with the Fed's interest - rate cut, recent oil price fluctuations, stable downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and moderately high industrial inventory [4][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The Fed's interest - rate cut was implemented, and the recent oil price is volatile. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film is mainly for rigid demand. Downstream production has increased, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7120 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 22, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is long, with a reduction in long positions, which is bullish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support and demand gradually entering the peak season; bearish factors are that the year - on - year demand is still weak [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in August, manufacturing sentiment improved, China's export volume increased year - on - year but declined from July, the Fed's interest - rate cut was implemented, and the oil price is volatile. Downstream demand is gradually turning to the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is stable. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6750 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 127, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.8%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors are geopolitical unrest providing cost support and demand gradually entering the peak season; bearish factors are that the year - on - year demand is still weak [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a production - capacity growth rate ranging from 5.1% - 20.5%. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a production - capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% - 15.5%. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7120 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 7142 (37), the basis is - 22 (-67), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), and the social PE inventory is 535,000 tons (-12,000) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6750 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 6877 (35), the basis is - 127 (-65), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (3,000) [10].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 18, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today, with geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the agricultural film demand entering the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being moderately high [4]. - The PP market is also expected to fluctuate today, with geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, improving demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving, and moderately high industrial inventory [7]. Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's exports in August were $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7,230 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -15, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is improving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6,850 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -132, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.9%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [8]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,230, the price of the 01 contract is 7,245, the basis is -15, the number of warehouse receipts is 12,736, and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,850, the price of the 01 contract is 6,982, the basis is -132, the number of warehouse receipts is 13,706, and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity and output of polyethylene have generally increased, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity and output of polypropylene have also increased, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

Manufacturing Sector Insights - July manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the sector[2] - Production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while new orders index dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, returning to the contraction zone[2] - New export orders declined by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, influenced by weakened export demand amid global manufacturing slowdowns[2] Price and Inventory Trends - Raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices showed a significant slowdown in contraction due to rising international crude oil prices and domestic price adjustments[2] - Overall inventory levels for raw materials and finished goods continued to decrease, indicating a sustained destocking trend[2] Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3%, while small enterprises' PMI dropped to 46.4%, both down by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Medium-sized enterprises saw a slight recovery, with PMI increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 49.5%[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, remaining above the expansion threshold[3] - The construction sector's index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, impacted by extreme weather conditions affecting construction progress[3] - Service sector index slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, indicating stability at the threshold[3] Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%, reflecting a slowdown in economic expansion[3] - Future outlook suggests continued pressure on manufacturing due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions, with potential for further declines in August[3]

Group 1 - The Private Economy Promotion Law was passed and will take effect on May 20, 2025, aiming to optimize the development environment for the private economy and ensure fair market competition [1][3] - China's official manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49, down from 50.5, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment [1][3] - The Ministry of Market Regulation has launched a special action to rectify irregular charges related to enterprises, focusing on key areas and issues [2][3] Group 2 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has revised the index compilation plan for the ChiNext board to enhance investment viability [15] - The first quarter GDP of the United States decreased by 0.3%, marking the first contraction since 2022 [21] - The ADP employment figures for April in the U.S. showed an increase of only 62,000 jobs, significantly below expectations [22] Group 3 - The Gansu Civil Aviation Airport Group announced an increase in borrowings of 2.706 billion yuan, which accounts for 122.77% of its net assets at the end of the previous year [7] - Xiangyang Housing Investment Co., Ltd. reported a total external guarantee balance of 2.491 billion yuan, representing 20.97% of its net assets at the end of the previous year [8] - Shenzhen Zhenye Group Co., Ltd. announced a net loss of 1.568 billion yuan for 2024, which is 29.02% of its net assets [10]

Group 1 - The five departments, including the People's Bank of China, emphasized support for private enterprises to grow through capital markets, focusing on implementing policies to alleviate financing difficulties [2] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.2% in February, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing activity [3] - DeepSeek's reported theoretical daily profit of 3.46 million RMB was clarified to be overstated, as actual income is lower due to pricing and service structure [4] Group 2 - Xpeng Motors delivered 30,453 vehicles in February, a year-on-year increase of 570.03%, while Li Auto and Leap Motor also reported significant growth in deliveries [5] - BYD's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 623,400 units in the first two months, marking a year-on-year growth of 92.52% [12] - Geely's February vehicle sales were 204,900 units, reflecting an approximate 84% year-on-year increase [14]