February 13, 2026 02:50 AM GMT 亚洲经济研究 | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Chetan Ahya 亚洲首席经济学家 Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7812 Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. 甘永康 亚洲经济学家 Derrick.Kam@morganstanley.com +65 6834-8272 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited M Idea 观点：市场反馈与我们的共识 和分歧 投资者整体对亚洲持积极看法，但关注点主要集中在科技板 块；而我们认为复苏正在向非科技板块扩散。这意味着，在 相对配置层面，投资者更看好北亚（不含中国）。投资者在 微观层面对中国保持乐观，但同时也认可宏观层面所面临的 挑战。 要点 在本报告中，我们就以下与投资者反复讨论的关键议题，分享我们的看法： This translated report is made available for convenience only and is ba ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant advancements and contributions of the Qihua Laboratory in Foshan, Guangdong, particularly in the field of commercial aerospace and technology innovation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Technological Innovations - The Qihua Laboratory has developed advanced equipment such as the ball diffraction correction transmission electron microscope and dual-beam electron microscope, enhancing material detection precision from micrometer to atomic levels [2]. - The laboratory's "Foshan No. 1" ultra-lightweight high-resolution space camera has achieved international advanced levels in key metrics, including a weight of 28 kg and a resolution of 0.5 m [3]. Group 2: Industry Development - By 2025, the laboratory aims to achieve significant milestones, including breakthroughs in key technologies like G8.6 OLED inkjet printing equipment and remote plasma sources, with a total of 618 invention patents filed in one year [4]. - The laboratory has attracted over 10 industry-leading companies to Foshan, resulting in total investments exceeding 8.5 billion yuan, contributing to the formation of a new display industry cluster [4]. Group 3: Innovation Incentives - The laboratory has established a local-oriented incentive mechanism for technology transfer, offering up to 90% of the conversion benefits for projects that land in Foshan, 70% for those in Guangdong, and 50% for projects in other provinces [4]. - Currently, 24 incubated companies have emerged from the laboratory, with three recognized as national-level specialized and innovative "little giants," contributing to a total industrial scale exceeding 5 billion yuan [4]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts - The laboratory is deepening the integration of technology, finance, and industry by collaborating with leading companies like Southern Power Grid and BGI to promote practical applications such as intelligent inspection robots and AI financial applications [5]. - Through regional cooperation mechanisms, the laboratory is exporting mature technologies like explosion-proof inspection robots to western Guangdong, supported by the "Sail Plan" of Guangdong Province [5].

Core Insights - Eight Roads Ventures, backed by Fidelity International, plans to accelerate its investments in India, anticipating five to six deals this year, driven by a positive deal flow in the market [2][4] - The firm views India as the largest opportunity in Asia, surpassing China in terms of investment potential, particularly for the types of investments it is pursuing [3][7] - Since its entry into India in 2007, Eight Roads has invested approximately $1.6 billion across 80 businesses, with 11 of these achieving valuations over $500 million, and some exceeding $1 billion [4] Investment Focus - Eight Roads primarily invests in early growth and growth-stage companies, focusing on technology and healthcare sectors, with cheque sizes ranging from $5 million to $40 million [5] - The technology investments include fintech, enterprise, consumer, and increasingly, artificial intelligence-driven solutions, while healthcare investments cover life sciences, advanced manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals [5][6] Market Trends - Healthcare has emerged as the largest sector for private investments in India, evolving from the fourth or fifth largest sector in previous years, with a notable increase in innovative companies in pharma and MedTech [6] - The firm emphasizes the importance of a robust digital infrastructure and payments network in India as foundational elements for future investments [7] Exit Strategies - Eight Roads has successfully executed secondary transactions, including a $50 million stake sale in MoEngage, Whatfix, and Shadowfax, indicating a trend towards increasing secondary market activity [9][10] - The firm believes that secondary transactions will remain a significant part of venture capital operations, providing opportunities for returning capital to limited partners and de-risking investments over time [11][12]

Group 1: SpaceX and xAI Acquisition - SpaceX's acquisition of xAI represents a significant move towards vertical integration, allowing the company to control an end-to-end AI compute supply chain from Earth to orbit [2][3] - By combining launch capabilities, satellite manufacturing, and AI models, SpaceX aims to become a foundational infrastructure layer in the AI sector, potentially deploying up to one million orbital "data center" satellites [3] - The acquisition is framed by Elon Musk as a pivotal moment, indicating a shift in strategy that emphasizes ownership of the entire supply chain [2] Group 2: Benefits from Tesla's Success - SpaceX benefits from Tesla's advancements, which serve as both a financial engine and a testing ground for technologies applicable to aerospace [4] - Tesla's cash flow and market value enable SpaceX to fund long-term projects without relying solely on external financing, while innovations in AI and manufacturing from Tesla can be leveraged to enhance SpaceX's operations [4] Group 3: Vertical Integration in AI and Supply Chain Control - The strategic advantage of vertical integration is highlighted, as it addresses AI's bottlenecks in compute, power, and data movement [5] - SpaceX's ownership of the cheapest launch system and the world's largest satellite constellation positions it to deploy infrastructure at unmatched costs, reshaping the competitive landscape [5][6] Group 4: Kraig Labs and Advanced Materials - Kraig Biocraft Laboratories is adopting a similar vertical integration strategy by securing access to mulberry gardens for spider silk production, enhancing logistics and cost stability [7][8] - Spider silk's unique properties make it a compelling material for various applications, including defense, aerospace, and medical fields, with potential multi-billion-dollar market opportunities [9][10] Group 5: Other Companies Following the Trend - Apple's move to mass-produce its own AI server chips and develop proprietary data centers reflects a strategy to enhance control over costs and scalability in AI [12][13] - Amazon's development of custom AI accelerators and ownership of power infrastructure allows it to optimize performance and reduce dependence on third-party suppliers, reinforcing its competitive edge in cloud and AI services [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, despite increasing uncertainties in external demand, China's provinces have stabilized their economic foundations, with several major economic provinces achieving record GDP growth [1][4]. Economic Performance - Guangdong leads with a GDP of 14.58 trillion yuan, followed by Jiangsu at 14.23 trillion yuan and Shandong surpassing 10 trillion yuan for the first time [1][4]. - Guangdong's GDP growth is supported by a 5.1% increase in advanced manufacturing and a 6.2% rise in high-tech manufacturing, with high-tech product outputs, such as industrial robots and drones, increasing by over 28% [4]. - Jiangsu's industrial growth is driven by sectors like computer and communication equipment manufacturing, with significant increases in optoelectronic devices and lithium-ion battery manufacturing at 17.5% and 18.4% respectively [4][6]. - Shandong's equipment manufacturing sector saw an 11.4% increase, with double-digit growth in automotive and railway industries, reflecting its strong cluster effects in advanced manufacturing [5]. Regional Economic Strategies - Provinces are focusing on tailored industrial planning, emphasizing the integration of traditional and emerging industries [8][11]. - The "Three Lines in Parallel" strategy is highlighted, where traditional industries are modernized through new technologies, ensuring they remain competitive alongside emerging sectors [12]. Trade and External Demand - Despite uncertainties, foreign trade remains resilient, with significant growth in exports of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, particularly from central and western provinces [7]. - Anhui's foreign trade reached over 1 trillion yuan, with a 1.1 times increase in exports of the "new three items" [7]. Future Development Plans - Guangdong aims to build a competitive modern industrial system, focusing on high-quality manufacturing and integrating AI into traditional industries [9][10]. - Zhejiang emphasizes embedding AI into industrial upgrades, leveraging its unique economic landscape to enhance competitiveness [10]. - Provinces like Hubei and Guizhou are also focusing on modernizing traditional industries while developing new sectors, ensuring a balanced economic growth strategy [11][12].

Core Insights - MD&M West is set to take place from February 3-5, 2026, at the Anaheim Convention Center, featuring partnerships with AMGTA, Dream Opportunity, Chapman University, and DiPPA to enhance networking and thought leadership in the manufacturing sector [1][9] Group 1: Partnerships and Events - AMGTA will present on the impact of 3D-printing technologies across various industries, including medical implants and consumer electronics, emphasizing real business benefits and opportunities [3] - The Workforce Connect Event, organized by Chapman University and SME, aims to connect college students and early-career professionals with industry leaders, providing career resources and networking opportunities [4] - DiPPA will contribute to the Sustainable Manufacturing Conference with a webinar focused on adapting business practices throughout the product lifecycle, covering design to remanufacturing [5] Group 2: Educational Initiatives - The Emerging Engineer Student Summit will host over 500 high school students from multiple counties, aimed at inspiring future talent in manufacturing and medtech [7] - Activities at the summit will include a Career Exposure Panel and guided tours, allowing students to engage with exhibitors and gain insights into industry trends and career paths [8] Group 3: Industry Impact - The partnerships at MD&M West are designed to create a platform that fosters collaboration among industry leaders, educators, and innovators, driving progress in manufacturing and MedTech [9] - Informa Markets Manufacturing, the organizer of MD&M, is a leading B2B event producer in the $3-trillion advanced manufacturing industry, connecting professionals globally through various events and digital media [10]

Core Insights - The Southern California Wine Country Economic Development Council (EDC) emphasizes a strong workforce advantage that supports the region's growth in manufacturing, aerospace, healthcare, and life sciences [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Development - The Southern California Wine Country EDC is a nonprofit organization that has been aiding businesses in relocating, expanding, or starting up in a rapidly growing region for over 30 years [3]. - The EDC focuses on fostering sustainable growth, innovation, and quality of life through partnerships, incentives, and a business-friendly environment [3]. Group 2: Workforce and Talent Ecosystem - The region has a high concentration of veterans, providing industries like cybersecurity, defense, and manufacturing with skilled professionals known for their leadership and technical expertise [5]. - Collaborations with local educational institutions align academic programs with employer needs, producing job-ready talent for high-growth sectors such as aerospace, advanced manufacturing, healthcare, and life sciences [5]. - The integration of higher education, veteran resources, and workforce development creates a resilient labor pool, making the region attractive for business expansion and providing residents with long-term career opportunities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The city of Lanzhou is implementing multiple measures to enhance the scale and capability of its headquarters economy, aiming for high-quality urban economic development and the establishment of a modern industrial system [1][2]. Policy Support - In April 2024, Lanzhou issued the "Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Headquarters Economy," encouraging existing headquarters enterprises to strengthen and grow, while attracting multinational corporations and industry leaders to establish headquarters in the city [2]. - The "Three-Year Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Headquarters Economy (2024-2026)" was introduced in December 2024, focusing on cultivating and attracting headquarters enterprises with an emphasis on high-end, digital, and international development [2]. Progress and Achievements - As of now, 103 headquarters enterprises have been recognized, with 72 in 2024 and 31 in 2025, surpassing the targets set in the three-year action plan [3]. - The city has implemented talent support policies, providing 3.39 million yuan in housing guarantees and talent rewards for 69 high-level talents in headquarters enterprises [3]. Challenges and Future Plans - Despite the positive momentum, there are challenges such as a low proportion of high-tech enterprises and the need to optimize recognition standards [4]. - The city plans to enhance the structure of recognized headquarters enterprises, aiming to attract over 10 new headquarters and cultivate more than 15 local enterprises with resource advantages by 2026 [4]. Expansion Strategies - Lanzhou aims to expand the scale of headquarters enterprises by establishing cultivation plans for potential enterprises and attracting industry leaders that align with the city's advanced manufacturing clusters [5]. - The city will revise and improve policies related to the headquarters economy, streamline recognition processes, and provide ongoing support to enhance the overall scale and capability of the headquarters economy [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and the **RMB (Renminbi) currency** dynamics, particularly regarding its appreciation and implications for economic rebalancing. Core Insights and Arguments - **RMB Appreciation and Economic Rebalancing**: The prevailing view that RMB appreciation will aid in rebalancing China's economy is contested. A significant appreciation could hinder the exit from deflation, negatively impact corporate margins, and slow wage growth. Sustainable rebalancing requires substantial fiscal easing to enhance consumption [2][6][34]. - **Current Macroeconomic Conditions**: The macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging, with a real GDP growth rate of 4.5% in Q4 2025, marking a three-year low. Deflationary pressures are expected to persist into 2026, indicating that significant currency appreciation is not warranted under current conditions [34][35]. - **Investor Sentiment**: There is a growing bullish sentiment among investors regarding RMB appreciation, driven by strong export performance. However, this optimism may not align with the economic realities that suggest a stable RMB is preferred by policymakers [6][7][16]. - **Trade Surplus and Currency Strength**: China's trade surplus has increased to 6.1% of GDP, up 1.6 percentage points over two years, driven by a rise in exports relative to GDP and a decline in imports. This strong external balance supports a modest appreciation of the RMB against the USD [16][19]. - **Historical Context**: The report draws parallels with Japan's experience in the 1990s, where significant currency appreciation exacerbated deflationary pressures and led to a loss of export competitiveness. This historical lesson suggests that RMB appreciation could similarly harm China's economic structure [41][50]. Additional Important Points - **Policy Measures**: The Chinese government aims to maintain the trade-weighted RMB index stable, with expectations of it remaining in the range of 98-99 by the end of 2026. There is no intent for sustained appreciation, as evidenced by the stable range maintained since 2016 [8][10]. - **Fiscal Policy Constraints**: Policymakers prefer investment-driven growth over consumption, viewing fiscal expansion for consumption as a temporary boost that increases debt burdens. This preference complicates efforts to achieve sustainable economic rebalancing [50][51]. - **Social Welfare Reforms**: While the 15th Five-Year Plan indicates a shift towards consumption, significant reforms are expected to be gradual due to their complexity. Targeted subsidies and social welfare improvements are anticipated, but addressing the core issues of social security for households will take longer [52][51]. - **Current Account Balance**: The current account surplus is projected to remain wide at 2.9% and 3.1% of GDP for 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting ongoing weak domestic demand and a high savings rate among households [28][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese economy and RMB dynamics, highlighting the complexities and challenges faced in achieving sustainable economic rebalancing.

Core Insights - Amaero Ltd is transitioning from the build-out phase to commercialization and scaling revenue, focusing on production scaling, cost reduction, and sustainable commercial outcomes [3][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of FY2026 reached A$7.7 million, a 366% increase compared to the same period in FY2025 [4]. - Updated financial guidance estimates FY2026 revenue between A$18 million and A$20 million, reflecting a growth of 372% to 425% over FY2025 [4][16]. - Contracted revenue of A$9.7 million has been secured for the second half of FY2026 [4][16]. - The cash and restricted cash balance at the end of December was A$52.6 million, an increase of A$1.7 million from September [4][16]. Capital Investments - Key capital investments were executed to support U.S. manufacturing scale-up, including contracts for an Argon recycling plant and a fourth advanced EIGA Premium atomizer [4][8]. - The Argon recycling plant was secured at approximately 60% below earlier cost estimates, expected to reduce Argon costs by about 80% once fully operational [4][8]. Strategic Partnerships and Validation - Received a Letter of Support from the United States Navy, validating Amaero's PM-HIP manufacturing process as a viable alternative to traditional supply chains [10][11]. - Converted a strategic partnership into a commercial supply order, receiving a A$4.6 million order from Titomic Limited under a five-year exclusive agreement [12][4]. Operational Progress - Continued operational momentum was reported, with increases in powder shipments and atomization output, reflecting improved capacity utilization [4][13]. - Ongoing manufacturing optimization initiatives are focused on process, safety, and quality controls [9]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates positive tailwinds in 2026, driven by national policy support for re-shoring and scaling the defense industrial base [6][18]. - Amaero is positioned as a critical enabler of advanced manufacturing supply chains across various sectors, including defense and aerospace [6][18].