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Is MSFT Stock Vulnerable to Rising Capex Pressure From AI Spending?
ZACKS· 2026-02-23 16:50
Core Insights - Microsoft reported strong fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings, with revenues of $81.3 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, and operating income rising 21% to $38.3 billion, but concerns over capital expenditure led to a nearly 5% drop in stock price after hours [1][2] Financial Performance - For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Microsoft achieved revenues of $81.3 billion, a 17% increase year-over-year, and operating income of $38.3 billion, up 21% [2] - Non-GAAP earnings per share were reported at $4.14, indicating solid performance by conventional measures [2] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditures and finance leases for the quarter reached $37.5 billion, a significant 66% increase from the previous year, exceeding market expectations [3] - The first half of fiscal 2026 saw total capital expenditures of $72.4 billion, suggesting an annual infrastructure spending trajectory of approximately $100 billion [3] - Two-thirds of the second-quarter capital expenditure was allocated to short-lived assets, primarily GPUs and CPUs, while the remainder was directed towards long-lived infrastructure [3] Market Dynamics - Microsoft acknowledged that customer demand continues to exceed supply, with guidance indicating a slight decline in operating margins for the fiscal third quarter [4] - The cost of goods sold is expected to grow by 22% to 23%, and capital expenditure is projected to decrease sequentially in the third quarter [4] Backlog and Future Revenue Potential - The commercial remaining performance obligation stands at $625 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, with 45% linked to OpenAI commitments, indicating future revenue potential but also sustained infrastructure obligations [5] - Rising R&D costs contribute to stock sensitivity regarding the pace of AI infrastructure buildout relative to revenue conversion [5] Industry Comparisons - Microsoft is not alone in facing capital expenditure pressures; Amazon has guided for approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, while Alphabet projects $175 billion to $185 billion, both companies experiencing similar investor scrutiny regarding infrastructure-heavy AI investments [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Microsoft shares have declined by 21.2% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Computer – Software industry decline of 24.5% but underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 10.6% [7] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 8.25X, compared to the industry's 6.92X, indicating a relatively higher valuation [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is $16.97 per share, reflecting an 8.4% increase over the past 30 days and a year-over-year growth of 24.41% [13]
Adobe Trades 43% Below 52-Week High: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
ZACKS· 2026-02-23 16:45
Core Insights - Adobe shares closed at $258.61, approximately 43% below the 52-week high of $453.26 reached on March 5, 2025, with a 41.8% decline over the past 12 months, underperforming the broader tech sector and software industry [1][7] - The company's future growth is heavily reliant on its AI initiatives, targeting an annualized recurring revenue growth of 10.2% for fiscal 2026, driven by an innovative AI-powered portfolio and expanding enterprise adoption [2][7] Performance Comparison - Adobe's AI-related revenues are significantly lower than competitors like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Salesforce, which have seen substantial growth in their AI offerings [3] - Over the past 12 months, Adobe has underperformed compared to Alphabet, which saw a 75.8% increase, while Microsoft and Salesforce experienced declines of 1.6% and 39.9%, respectively [4] Revenue and Earnings Forecast - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Adobe anticipates revenues between $6.25 billion and $6.3 billion, with non-GAAP earnings expected to be $5.85-$5.90 per share [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter earnings is $5.88 per share, indicating a 15.8% growth year-over-year, while revenues are expected to grow by 10% to $6.28 billion [11] - For fiscal 2026, Adobe expects revenues between $25.9 billion and $26.1 billion, with non-GAAP earnings projected between $23.30 and $23.50 per share, reflecting a 9.5% revenue growth and 12.1% earnings growth from fiscal 2025 [12] Strategic Initiatives - Adobe is experiencing strong demand for its AI-powered products, including Creative Cloud Pro and Acrobat, and is enhancing user experiences through new AI features [8][9] - The company is expanding its partner base and integrating with leading AI ecosystems, which is expected to bolster its market position [9] Valuation and Investment Outlook - Adobe holds a Value Score of B, indicating a potentially attractive valuation for investors [13] - The current Zacks Rank for Adobe is 3 (Hold), suggesting that investors may want to wait for a more favorable entry point [17]
LinkedIn Growth Boosts Momentum: Can MSFT Stock Rally Higher?
ZACKS· 2026-01-21 15:36
Core Insights - Microsoft (MSFT) is leveraging LinkedIn's evolution from a job-matching network to an AI-enabled professional intelligence platform, enhancing its strategic value for enterprises [1] - LinkedIn's extensive professional network of over 1.2 billion members provides Microsoft with unique data on careers and skills, creating a competitive advantage that is difficult for rivals to replicate [2] - LinkedIn's revenue growth of 10% year-over-year in Q1 of fiscal 2026 is driven by Marketing Solutions, while Talent Solutions faces challenges due to weaker hiring activity [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects LinkedIn revenues for fiscal 2026 at $19.57 billion, reflecting a 9.9% year-over-year increase, supporting a positive long-term outlook for MSFT stock [4] Competitive Landscape - LinkedIn differentiates itself from competitors like Meta Platforms (META) and Oracle (ORCL) by offering verified professional identities and dynamic workforce intelligence [5] - Meta Platforms focuses on consumer engagement but lacks the professional identity and business intent signals that LinkedIn captures [6] - Oracle relies on static employee data, while LinkedIn combines real-time professional activity with productivity workflows, resulting in higher switching costs and richer insights [7] Financial Performance - MSFT shares have decreased by 10% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Computer – Software industry's decline of 12.5% but underperforming the broader Computer and Technology sector's return of 16.8% [8] - The forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio for MSFT is 9.61X, compared to the industry's 8.65X, indicating a premium valuation [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSFT's fiscal 2026 earnings is $15.61 per share, reflecting a 14.44% year-over-year growth [15]
MSFT's Office 365 Subscription Growth Picks Up: Sign of More Upside?
ZACKS· 2026-01-09 16:05
Core Insights - Microsoft (MSFT) shares are gaining momentum due to strong Office 365 subscription metrics indicating increased demand in both commercial and consumer segments [1] - The company's fiscal first-quarter 2026 results show a 17% increase in Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenues and a 6% growth in seat count, primarily driven by small and medium-sized businesses [1][7] - Consumer cloud revenues surged by 26%, with subscriptions exceeding 90 million, reflecting strong traction in personal productivity [2] Commercial Segment Performance - Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenues increased by 17%, with seat growth of 6%, indicating successful monetization of the installed base through higher-tier offerings [1] - The growth in revenue per user is largely attributed to the adoption of Microsoft 365 E5 and the Copilot AI assistant, which has reached 150 million monthly active users [2] - Remaining performance obligations in the commercial segment reached $392 billion, suggesting strong future revenue visibility [3] Consumer Segment Performance - Microsoft 365 Consumer cloud revenues rose by 26%, with subscriptions climbing 7% to surpass 90 million [2] - The rapid adoption of AI-enhanced productivity tools, particularly Copilot Chat, which saw a 50% quarter-over-quarter increase in usage, indicates strong enterprise acceptance [2] Pricing Strategy and Market Position - Microsoft announced price increases effective July 2026, with monthly fees rising by up to three dollars across subscription tiers, while extending promotional offers through June 2026 to encourage Copilot adoption [3] - The company's pricing strategy contrasts with Apple and Google, which have also raised prices to enhance subscription margins, but Microsoft maintains a stronger position in dedicated enterprise productivity platforms [4] Valuation and Market Performance - MSFT shares have declined by 4.7% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Computer – Software industry's decline of 7.8% but underperforming the broader Computer and Technology sector's return of 18.1% [5] - The stock is currently trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 10.5X, compared to the industry's 9.08X, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings at $15.59 per share, indicating a 14.3% year-over-year growth [8]
Salesforce Plunges 20% in a Year: Is CRM Stock Still a Hold?
ZACKS· 2026-01-09 14:05
Core Insights - Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) shares have declined 17.9% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Computer – Software industry's 10.7% gain, with competitors like Microsoft and Oracle showing positive growth [1][5][20] Financial Performance - Revenue growth for Salesforce has slowed to 8.7% year over year in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, a significant decrease from previous double-digit growth rates [5][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% over the next five years, down from 27.8% in the previous five years [7] Market Dynamics - The slowdown in growth is attributed to cautious enterprise spending amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical pressures, with no significant improvement expected in revenue projections for fiscal 2026 and 2027 [6][10] - Businesses are shifting from large digital transformation projects to smaller, lower-risk investments, impacting Salesforce's growth strategy [10] AI Integration and Innovations - Salesforce is focusing on enhancing its enterprise software portfolio and integrating artificial intelligence (AI) across its product lines, which could help regain growth momentum [10][12] - The introduction of AI tools, particularly Agentforce, has generated $1.4 billion in recurring revenues in Q3 FY26, with a 114% year-over-year increase [13] IT Spending Trends - Worldwide IT spending is projected to increase by 9.8% year over year to $6.08 trillion in 2026, with software expected to grow even faster at 15.2% to $1.43 trillion [14] Valuation Metrics - Salesforce is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 20.16, significantly lower than the industry average of 28.47, making it an attractive investment from a valuation perspective [15][19] Strategic Positioning - Salesforce's strategic acquisitions and focus on AI and enterprise software position it well for long-term growth, despite current challenges [11][20]
CRM's Agentforce ARR Jumps 330% Y/Y: Is It the Next Growth Engine?
ZACKS· 2025-12-31 15:15
Core Insights - Salesforce's Agentforce is experiencing significant growth, with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $540 million in Q3 FY26, representing a 330% year-over-year increase [1][9]. Group 1: Agentforce Performance - Since its launch, Salesforce has closed over 18,500 Agentforce deals, with 9,500 being paid transactions, indicating strong market adoption [2]. - More than 50% of new Agentforce bookings are from existing customers, showcasing customer retention and expansion [2]. - Agentforce has processed 3.2 trillion tokens since launch, with 540 billion tokens processed in October alone, reflecting a 25% sequential increase [2]. - The platform has achieved 1.2 billion LLM calls to date, with over 200 million calls processed in Q3 FY26, indicating robust early adoption [3]. Group 2: Business Model and Revenue Growth - The consumption-based model, supported by flexible payment options like Flex Credits, is driving demand for Agentforce, which may enhance recurring revenue growth over time [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Microsoft and ServiceNow are also advancing AI automation in the enterprise market, with Microsoft integrating AI features into Dynamics 365 and ServiceNow automating IT service management and customer support [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - Salesforce shares have declined by 2.5% year-to-date, compared to a 4.9% decline in the Zacks Computer – Software industry [7]. - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 5.47, which is below the industry average of 7.55, indicating potential undervaluation [10]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Salesforce's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings suggests year-over-year increases of approximately 15.10% and 10.53%, respectively, with recent upward revisions [13].
Can Agentforce Momentum Help Salesforce Reignite Revenue Growth?
ZACKS· 2025-12-11 15:01
Core Insights - Salesforce, Inc. is relying on its Agentforce platform to rejuvenate growth as revenue expansion has slowed to single digits, with year-over-year revenue increases of 7.6%, 9.8%, and 8.6% in the first three quarters of fiscal 2026 [1][5] Group 1: Agentforce and Revenue Growth - The company is developing a broader ecosystem centered on artificial intelligence (AI), data, and collaboration to address the slowing revenue growth trend, with Agentforce being a key component [2] - Agentforce, combined with Data Cloud, generated $1.4 billion in recurring revenues in Q3 of fiscal 2026, marking a 114% year-over-year increase, while Agentforce alone contributed $540 million, up 330% year over year [3][10] - The current remaining performance obligation (CRPO) reached $29.4 billion, an 11% increase year over year, driven by larger deals and early renewals, with over 50% of Agentforce deals coming from existing clients [4][10] Group 2: Market Position and Competitors - Salesforce's stock has decreased by 21.3% year to date, contrasting with the Zacks Computer – Software industry's growth of 12.1% [8] - Competitors like Microsoft and ServiceNow are also advancing AI automation in the enterprise market, with Microsoft integrating AI features into Dynamics 365 and ServiceNow rolling out industry-specific AI tools [6][7] Group 3: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Salesforce trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.23, significantly lower than the industry average of 29.68 [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 and 2027 indicates earnings growth of approximately 14.2% and 10.5% year over year, respectively, with recent upward revisions in estimates [14]
Salesforce Shares Gain 2% on Q3 Earnings Beat and FY26 Guidance Raise
ZACKS· 2025-12-04 14:26
Core Insights - Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) shares increased by 2.1% after reporting better-than-expected earnings for Q3 fiscal 2026 and raising its full-year guidance [1][9] Financial Performance - Salesforce reported non-GAAP earnings of $3.25 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 14.04% and reflecting a year-over-year improvement of 34.9% [1][2] - Q3 fiscal 2026 revenues reached $10.3 billion, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate and showing a 10% year-over-year increase [2][10] - Non-GAAP operating income was $3.64 billion, up 16.5% from the previous year, with an operating margin expansion of 240 basis points to 35.5% [6][12] Revenue Breakdown - Subscription and Support revenues, accounting for 95% of total revenues, increased by 9.5% year over year to $9.73 billion [3] - Professional Services and Other revenues declined by 5.7% to $533 million [3] - Revenues from the Americas grew by 8% to $6.7 billion, EMEA revenues increased by 7% to $2.5 billion, and Asia Pacific revenues rose by 11% to $1.1 billion [6] Segment Performance - Agentforce Sales revenues grew by 8.4% to $2.3 billion, while Agentforce Service revenues increased by 9% to $2.5 billion [5] - Agentforce 360 Platform, Slack and Other revenues rose by 19.5% to $2.18 billion, and Agentforce Integration and Analytics recorded a 6.1% increase to $1.39 billion [5] Guidance Update - Salesforce raised its revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 to a range of $41.45-$41.55 billion, reflecting a 9-10% year-over-year growth [9][10] - The company now expects non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $11.75-$11.77, up from the previous forecast of $11.33-$11.37 [11] - For Q4 fiscal 2026, total sales are projected between $11.13 billion and $11.23 billion, indicating 11-12% growth from the previous year [13] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Salesforce ended Q3 with cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $11.32 billion, down from $15.37 billion in the previous quarter [7] - The company generated an operating cash flow of $2.3 billion and a free cash flow of $2.2 billion [7] - Salesforce returned $4.2 billion to shareholders, including $3.8 billion in share repurchases and $395 million in dividends [8]
How Should You Play Salesforce Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings Release?
ZACKS· 2025-11-27 14:15
Core Insights - Salesforce (CRM) is set to release its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on December 3, with expected revenues between $10.24 billion and $10.29 billion, indicating an 8.7% increase year-over-year [1][9] - The company anticipates non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $2.84 to $2.86, reflecting an 18.3% increase from the previous year [2][9] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is $10.26 billion, aligning closely with Salesforce's expectations [1][9] - The consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS has remained stable at $2.85 over the past 60 days [2] Performance History - Salesforce has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.2% [3] Factors Influencing Q3 Results - The company is well-positioned for strong results due to its focus on digital transformation and cloud solutions, which align with global business needs [6] - Demand for generative AI-enabled cloud solutions has been a significant growth driver, enhancing customer engagement and competitive positioning [7] - Salesforce's expansion in key geographic markets and the public sector has unlocked new growth opportunities [8] Strategic Acquisitions - Recent acquisitions, including Waii, Convergence.ai, and Zoomin, have enhanced Salesforce's capabilities and diversified its revenue base, likely boosting subscription revenues [10] - Key cloud service revenue estimates for Q3 include $2.3 billion from Sales, $2.49 billion from Service, and $2.07 billion from Platform & Other [11] Cost Restructuring Initiatives - Ongoing cost restructuring is expected to improve profitability, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 34.3% in Q2, up 60 basis points [12] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Salesforce shares have declined by 31.7%, underperforming the Zacks Computer – Software industry, which has risen by 6.6% [13] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 4.92, compared to the industry average of 7.39 [15] Competitive Position - Salesforce maintains its leadership in the customer relationship management industry, consistently outperforming competitors like Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP [18] - Strategic acquisitions, such as the $27.7 billion acquisition of Slack, have significantly enhanced its market position [19] AI Initiatives - The introduction of Einstein GPT and the expansion of AI functionalities across its ecosystem have solidified Salesforce's competitive edge in the market [20] Conclusion - Despite potential near-term challenges from softening IT spending, Salesforce's leadership in CRM and aggressive AI expansion provide a solid foundation for sustained growth [22]
Adobe Drops 36% in a Year: Can AI Push Help the Stock Recover?
ZACKS· 2025-11-20 17:05
Core Insights - Adobe's shares have declined 36.3% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 23.9% and the Zacks Computer – Software industry's appreciation of 9.5% [1][8] - The underperformance is attributed to modest growth prospects due to intense competition in the AI and generative AI sectors from companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Salesforce, and others [1][15] Financial Performance - Adobe's annual recurring revenues (ARR) influenced by AI surpassed $5 billion, with new AI-first products generating over $250 million in ARR [6][8] - The company raised its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance to between $23.65 billion and $23.7 billion, up from the previous range of $23.5-$23.6 billion [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $23.67 billion, indicating a 10.1% growth from 2024 [12] AI Business Growth - Strong demand for AI-powered products like Creative Cloud Pro and Acrobat is driving growth, with monthly active users of Acrobat and Express growing approximately 25% year over year [7][8] - The Creative Professionals segment is benefiting from increased usage of AI in applications like Photoshop and Premiere Pro [8][9] - The integrated GenStudio solution and other AI services now exceed $1 billion in ARR, growing more than 25% year over year [10] Competitive Landscape - Adobe's AI business remains small compared to competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet, which are seeing significant growth in their AI services [15] - Microsoft and Alphabet have reported returns of 17.3% and 68.3%, respectively, while Salesforce has seen a decline of 30% [2][15] Valuation Concerns - Adobe's Value Score is C, indicating a stretched valuation, trading at 11.31X price/book compared to the sector's 10.13X and competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet [16] - The stock is currently trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a bearish trend [21]