外贸是观察经济的重要窗口。过去，我国在海外市场走俏的主要是服装、家具、家电这些"老三样"，如 今"新旧交替"，以电动载人汽车、锂电池、太阳能电池等为代表的"新三样"在出口领域持续领跑。这类 产品兼具高技术含量、高附加值的特点，且契合绿色转型趋势，正逐步成为我国出口的新增长点，也在 成长为我国新的优势产业。 从点的突破到面的铺开，从"新三样"到"更多样"，中国经济的创新脉搏，在这样的迭代中愈发强劲。由 此带来的创新力量，也让我们有更充足的底气和自信去战胜困难挑战，让高质量发展成色更足、底色更 亮。 不管是新产业，还是潮文化，回顾"新三样"的发展历程，可得到不少经验启示。"新"的含金量，既因为 精准对接了消费者对"高品质、新体验"的需求，也得益于成熟供应链、新质生产力的坚实托底。这背 后，同样离不开海关在进出境口岸为创新创造提供的保驾护航。比如，围绕知识产权保护，海关总署介 绍，今年以来全国海关拦截183万件假LABUBU。同时还特别强调，中国海关的知识产权保护不仅服务 强国建设，更体现大国担当：对内对外一视同仁，既保护自主知识产权，也保护国外企业在我国的合法 权益，既阻止境外侵权产品流入国内，也打击国内侵权产品 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the China New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) for the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) [1][2] Core Company Insights BYD - **Revenue**: Expected to reach RMB 213,524 million, a 21% increase year-over-year (YoY) and a 25% increase quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) [1][5] - **Vehicle Sales**: Anticipated to be 158,207 units, reflecting a 28% YoY growth [1][5] - **Gross Margin**: Projected at 18.1%, down 0.6 percentage points (pp) YoY and 2.0 pp QoQ due to price competition [3][5] - **Operating Margin**: Expected to improve by 0.3 pp QoQ to 3.6% [3][5] Li Auto - **Revenue**: Forecasted at RMB 30,331 million, a 4% decrease YoY but a 17% increase QoQ [1][10] - **Vehicle Sales**: Expected to be 29,104 units, down 4% YoY but up 17.9% QoQ [1][10] - **Gross Margin**: Anticipated at 20.1%, a slight increase of 0.6 pp YoY [10] - **Operating Margin**: Expected to improve by 2.1 pp YoY to 3.6% due to opex optimization [9][10] XPeng - **Revenue**: Expected to reach RMB 18,119 million, a 123% increase YoY [1][13] - **Vehicle Sales**: Anticipated at 16,637 units, reflecting a 144% YoY growth [1][13] - **Gross Margin**: Projected at 15.9%, an increase of 1.9 pp YoY [13] - **Operating Margin**: Expected to improve by 14 pp YoY to -5.8% [12][13] Nio - **Revenue**: Forecasted at RMB 19,784 million, a 13.4% increase YoY and a 64.4% increase QoQ [1][17] - **Vehicle Sales**: Expected to be 17,665 units, a 12.7% increase YoY [1][17] - **Gross Margin**: Anticipated at 10.8%, up 1.1 pp YoY [17] - **Operating Margin**: Expected to improve by 5.4 pp YoY to -24.5% [16][17] Key Trends and Observations - **NEV Market Growth**: NEV volume grew by 71% YoY and 29% QoQ across covered OEMs, with industry growth at 30% YoY and 26% QoQ [2] - **Blended Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Remained stable or improved QoQ due to a better product mix, despite lower pricing for individual models [2] - **Operating Expense Control**: All NEV OEMs are expected to see improvements in operating margins due to strict expense control and operational efficiency [2] Risks and Considerations - **BYD**: Risks include intensified electric vehicle competition and slower-than-expected overseas expansion [19] - **Li Auto**: Key risks involve lower-than-expected industry demand and product competitiveness of upcoming models [20] - **XPeng**: Risks include lower-than-expected sales volume and price competition [21] - **Nio**: Risks include lower-than-expected sales volume and potential price cuts [22] Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of new model launches and sales policies in driving market share for companies like Nio [14] - The impact of technology cost reductions and supply chain price declines on gross margins was emphasized, particularly for XPeng and Nio [12][16] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the performance and outlook of major NEV OEMs in China for 2Q25.

Market Overview - The real estate market in Guangzhou is currently experiencing a downturn, with only 3,101 units signed online as of July 20, which is significantly lower than last year's 5,596 units [1][3] - The average price per square meter is 32,569 yuan, which is slightly better than the previous month but still reflects a cooling market [2][3] Market Dynamics - June saw the highest number of transactions for the year at 6,707 units, driven by projects pushing for mid-year performance [3] - July is traditionally a slow month for real estate, compounded by high temperatures and school vacations, leading to decreased buying activity [3] - The market lacks new launches aside from a few projects, contributing to the overall stagnation [3] Government Initiatives - The Guangzhou government is actively stabilizing the market by utilizing a substantial fund to acquire existing residential properties, which is expected to provide a safety net for the market [8] - The government is also focusing on releasing quality land in core urban areas, which has shown positive results in attracting buyers and generating revenue for developers [8][9] - New regulations on housing design are being implemented to improve living conditions and address issues related to property safety and privacy [9] Economic Indicators - Guangzhou is witnessing a surge in urban vitality, with significant corporate investments and the establishment of major company headquarters, which is expected to enhance the city's attractiveness [11][12] - The city has seen a consistent increase in subway ridership, indicating a growing population and economic activity [12] Future Outlook - The ongoing urban renewal projects are expected to sustain purchasing power in the market, although the long-term sustainability of this demand remains uncertain [5] - The combination of government support, urban development, and new purchasing power from residents is seen as a positive sign for the market's recovery [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Chinese market**, particularly the **new energy vehicles (NEV)**, **solar**, **coal**, and **cement** sectors, in the context of the **anti-involution initiative** aimed at reducing unhealthy competition and improving corporate profitability [2][3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Initiative**: - The initiative is gaining momentum, with calls for industries to self-regulate to avoid damaging competition. This is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics, drive price recovery, and enhance corporate profitability [2][3]. - China's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by **2.8% YoY** in the first half of 2025, marking the **33rd consecutive month** of declines, alongside a **9.1% YoY drop** in industrial profit in May [2][12][14]. 2. **Market Reactions**: - Historical parallels are drawn to the **2015-16 supply-side reform**, which led to price increases in materials and a re-rating of relevant sectors. Sectors addressing unhealthy competition, such as solar and power batteries, have recently rebounded [3][4][21]. - Stock prices initially reacted positively to new policies during the supply-side reform, providing excess returns relative to the broader market for **1-2 months** [4]. 3. **Commodity Price Correlation**: - Stock prices initially moved in tandem with commodity prices and production changes, but later decoupled. Significant price increases for relevant commodities occurred during two periods in 2015-16 [5][26]. 4. **Corporate Profitability**: - The coal sector's profitability improved significantly in the second half of 2016, with nearly **90% of capacity** turning profitable by the end of Q3 2016, compared to **8%** in November 2015 [6][31]. 5. **Differences from Previous Reforms**: - The anti-involution push is expected to have a smoother and longer-lasting impact on stock prices compared to the supply-side reform, focusing more on downstream industries where non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) are prevalent [7][9]. Indicators for Investors - Investors should monitor: - Specific capacity controls and recovery in product prices (e.g., polysilicon prices) - Capacity utilization rates in relevant businesses - Rebound in PPI - Indicators such as industrial profit growth and the proportion of profitable businesses, which may lag behind stock price movements [10][36]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the need for clearer guidelines and stronger support for domestic demand as the anti-involution initiative progresses [10]. - The potential risks facing China's equities include a hard landing in the property market and slow structural reform progress, which could shock the market if not adequately addressed [38]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the relevant industries in China.

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of weekly announcements from Sunday to Thursday, which include significant stock market updates such as suspensions, increases or decreases in holdings, investment wins, acquisitions, earnings reports, unlocks, and high transfers [1] - Key sectors mentioned include rare earth permanent magnets, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, and new energy vehicles, with a company already supplying small batches to downstream humanoid robot clients and receiving new export licenses for rare earth-related items [1] - The article also discusses the integration of water conservancy, humanoid robots, and artificial intelligence, noting that a company has successfully sold multiple intelligent operation and maintenance robots for rail transit to clients [1] Group 2 - The company is set to mass-produce 800G optical module products and has won a 1.5 billion yuan contract for a marine energy project, indicating strong growth potential in the optical and marine sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Jinan Municipal Government is implementing a strategy to enhance industrial development in the Shizhong District, focusing on creating a modern industrial system characterized by high-end, intelligent, green, clustered, and international features [1]. Group 1: Industrial Development Strategy - Shizhong District aims to promote the "13+34" emblematic industrial chain system and leverage the "3+2" main industry positioning to drive industrial growth [1][3]. - The district plans to cultivate key industry clusters such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, new energy vehicles, and robotics, fostering an innovative ecosystem that encourages collaboration among enterprises, government, academia, and financial institutions [3][4]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Industrial Parks - The district is developing a multi-park layout to support new industrialization, striving to create a provincial economic development zone and enhance infrastructure in industrial parks [3]. - Five new industrial parks focusing on information technology, power equipment, new energy vehicles, aerospace information, and artificial intelligence are being established to strengthen the district's industrial competitiveness [3][4]. Group 3: Digital Transformation and Smart Manufacturing - The establishment of an application scenario research institute is underway to advance digital infrastructure and innovation in application scenarios, including the construction of a "Gigabit City Demonstration Zone" [4]. - The district aims to promote digital transformation among industrial enterprises, with a target of cultivating over 15 intelligent manufacturing pilot demonstration projects by 2026 [4]. Group 4: Financial Support for Industry - Shizhong District has partnered with 12 investment institutions to establish various funds, including an industrial investment fund and a low-altitude economy special fund, with a total reserve exceeding 8 billion [4]. - The first batch of funds, totaling 2.4 billion, is expected to be operational by the end of August, providing robust financial support for industrial development [4].

Group 1: Economic Resilience and Industrial Development - In the first half of 2025, China's economy, particularly in Guangdong, demonstrated strong resilience and vitality, with a focus on traditional industries leveraging technological innovation to secure global orders [1] - Guangdong's industrial robot production accounts for 44% of the national total, and smartphone production exceeds 40%, indicating a robust manufacturing sector [1] - The province has formed nine trillion-yuan industrial clusters and has eight national advanced manufacturing clusters, showcasing its industrial strength [1] Group 2: Legislative Support for Industrial Modernization - The Guangdong Provincial People's Congress is actively promoting the implementation of key tasks for building a modern industrial system, including organizing seven specialized meetings on various topics such as AI, traditional industry integration, and high-quality talent cultivation [2] - Legislative measures are being taken to provide a solid legal guarantee for the acceleration of the modern industrial system, reflecting the evolving "Guangdong phenomenon" in legislative support [2] Group 3: Innovation and Technological Advancement - The construction of a modern industrial system in Guangdong is accelerating, focusing on upgrading traditional and advantageous industries while fostering emerging and future industries [3] - Guangdong's innovation capacity has ranked first nationally for eight consecutive years, with 408 companies listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, raising a total of 331.2 billion yuan [3] - Companies like Yirui Technology exemplify the successful transformation of traditional industries through innovation, with a significant portion of their revenue coming from foreign markets [3] Group 4: Future Industries and Global Standards - The low-altitude economy, computing power, and robotics are becoming key areas for reshaping global competition, with Guangdong aiming to turn future industries into market leaders and standard setters [4] - The Shenzhen Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Research Institute has made significant strides in developing various applications for robots, indicating a strong focus on innovation in this sector [5] Group 5: Collaborative Development and Economic Environment - Guangdong aims to cultivate more leading enterprises and industrial clusters through a collaborative development approach, enhancing its competitive advantage in manufacturing [5] - The Guangdong Provincial People's Congress is reinforcing the legal framework to support the modern industrial system, ensuring a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment [6][7] Group 6: Focused Research and Development - The Guangdong Provincial People's Congress has conducted in-depth research on key industrial clusters, identifying challenges and forming actionable reports to support the development of the modern industrial system [7][8] - Future efforts will focus on enhancing the legal system's coherence and promoting cross-sectoral regulatory alignment to support new economic and business models [8]

Group 1: Digital Economy and Innovation - The 2025 Global Digital Economy Conference held in Beijing showcased significant achievements in the digital economy, with Beijing ranking second globally in the digital economy benchmark city index [1] - The conference led to the establishment of the "Global Digital Economy City Alliance," focusing on key areas such as digital infrastructure and cross-border data governance [1] - Beijing aims to upgrade its digital economy to a "smart economy," enhancing computing power and talent reserves to provide replicable experiences for global digital-friendly city construction [1] Group 2: Environmental Cooperation - The sixth meeting of the environment ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) took place in Tianjin, resulting in a joint declaration to support sustainable development initiatives [2][4] - The meeting emphasized cooperation to promote green, sustainable, and low-emission development among member countries [4] Group 3: Robotics and Technology - The National Speed Skating Hall's humanoid robot training base was officially opened, hosting the first 3V3 robot soccer training match [6] - The base aims to support the upcoming 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games and has attracted eight teams for training, enhancing the appeal of global humanoid robot innovation resources [6] Group 4: Cultural Development - The China International Publishing Exchange Center project has been completed, covering an area of 132,000 square meters and designed to facilitate international cultural exchanges [7] - The center will host major cultural projects and international exchange activities, showcasing China's cultural strength [7] Group 5: Drone Technology - The 2025 International Drone Application and Control Conference was held in Beijing, attracting over 1,000 guests and 500 exhibitors to discuss technological advancements and industry opportunities [8] - The conference featured various technical sessions and forums, highlighting innovations in drone logistics and safety management [8] Group 6: Beidou Information Industry - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region announced plans to collaboratively advance the Beidou spatial information industry, focusing on infrastructure and policy standards [9] - The initiative includes sharing data resources and expanding applications in autonomous driving and low-altitude economy [9] Group 7: Education and Safety Regulations - Tianjin implemented new safety regulations for schools, establishing a 200-meter safety zone around educational institutions to enhance student safety [12] - The regulations include prohibiting certain businesses within the safety zone and ensuring schools are equipped with adequate security measures [12] Group 8: Automotive Technology - The establishment of a 4D imaging radar project in Tianjin's Xiqing District aims to fill a gap in the local industry and support the upgrade of the electric vehicle sector [13] - The project will serve as the first production center in northern China for 4D millimeter-wave radar technology [13] Group 9: Health and Biotechnology - The approval of a new method for producing D-alloheptulose sugar marks a significant breakthrough for the biomanufacturing industry in Qinhuangdao, with a production capacity of 10,000 tons per year [14] - This "healthy sugar" has a caloric value of only 1/10 of sucrose and is produced using a novel fermentation process [14] Group 10: High-Speed Rail Development - The China High-Speed Rail Exhibition in Beijing highlighted the country's achievements in high-speed rail, with an operational mileage of 48,000 kilometers, accounting for over 70% of the global total [15] - The exhibition showcased the development journey and innovations in China's high-speed rail technology [15]

Industry Trend - The National Bureau of Statistics: PPI year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to last month [1] - Increased efforts to address enterprises' disorderly low-price competition, promote the exit of outdated production capacity and improve product quality [1] - Prices of gasoline and diesel vehicle manufacturing rose 0.5% month-on-month, and new energy vehicle manufacturing prices rose 0.3% month-on-month [1] - Year-on-year decline in gasoline and diesel vehicle manufacturing prices narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to last month, and new energy vehicle manufacturing prices narrowed by 0.4 percentage points [1] Sector Performance - Photovoltaic equipment and electronic component manufacturing prices decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points [1] - Lithium-ion battery manufacturing prices decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - Guangdong is promoting enterprises to take the lead in technological innovation, with over 50% of key R&D projects in 2024 being led by enterprises and 90% participation from them [1][3] - The province has established a gradient cultivation system for technology enterprises, enhancing the international competitiveness of leading companies like Huawei, Tencent, BYD, and Midea, with 17 companies listed in the 2024 Fortune Global 500 [3] - Guangdong's R&D expenditure has surpassed 510 billion yuan, maintaining the highest level in the country, with an R&D intensity of 3.6% [4] Group 2 - In 2024, the amount of R&D expenses eligible for tax deductions for enterprises in Guangdong is expected to exceed 690 billion yuan [3] - The province is focusing on emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, robotics, new energy vehicles, and biomedicine, with the smart robotics industry cluster projected to generate over 90 billion yuan in revenue [3] - Guangdong's regional innovation capability has ranked first in the country for eight consecutive years, with the "Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou" tech cluster ranked second globally in innovation index for five years [4]