Riverwater Partners, an investment management company, released its “Micro Opportunities Strategy” Q3 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The strategy reported solid absolute returns in the quarter but lagged the benchmark as it did not keep pace with the strong rally. The strategy continues to focus on quality companies in the volatile environment. In addition, you can check the fund’s top 5 holdings to determine its best picks for 2025. In its third-quarter 2025 investor ...

15 December 2025 | 5:32PM EST Equity Research AMERICAS TECHNOLOGY IT Spending Survey: Downtick in spending intentions though indices remain in expansion territory IT spending intentions remain generally resilient in our November 2025 survey despite uncertainty in the global macroeconomic backdrop Our overall IT spending index decreased to 68.0 from 74.0, and our IT Capital Spending Index decreased to 65.5 from 67.0. For context, the average Overall IT spending index and IT Capital Spending Index figures sta ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of approximately $1.55 million, consistent with the first two quarters of the year, but down roughly $600,000 compared to the previous year due to timing of larger customer orders [4][14] - Year-to-date revenue for 2025 was slightly under $5 million, reflecting a decrease largely attributed to quarter-to-quarter variability [4] - The net loss for Q3 2025 was $965,000 or $0.15 per share, compared to a net loss of $739,000 or $0.39 per share in Q3 2024 [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - License fee revenue decreased to $918,000 in Q3 2025 from $1.4 million in Q3 2024, while service revenue increased slightly to $268,000 [14] - Hardware sales declined to approximately $364,000 in Q3 2025 from $436,000 in Q3 2024 due to timing of shipments [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced strong demand in the defense sector, with two of the top four largest global defense agencies using its technology [10] - The company is focusing on expanding its market reach in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, particularly through channel sales efforts [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is advancing its channel sales efforts and has engaged an external marketing firm to enhance its marketing strategies and website content [7] - A significant update to the PortalGuard identity platform is expected to be released in late Q1 or early Q2 2026, which represents a major modernization of the platform [8] - The company is focusing on reducing its break-even levels and supporting positive cash flow and profitability [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth prospects for the upcoming year, citing a strong pipeline of opportunities and the potential for significant contract renewals [12][39] - The company noted that the recent U.S. government shutdown did not impact its business operations [37] Other Important Information - The company raised approximately $3 million net of fees through a warrant exercise transaction, enhancing its cash liquidity [13] - Current assets as of September 30, 2025, were $3.7 million, including $2 million in cash, compared to $1.9 million in current assets at the end of 2024 [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Was the Bank of Egypt win a recurring revenue deal? - Management confirmed it was an initial deployment with expectations for expanded deployment [19] Question: Are margins lower on the Bank of Egypt project due to partnership? - Management stated that gross margins on software remain above 90% [20] Question: What is the current ARR? - Management indicated that the ARR is growing and estimated to be in the $6 million-$7 million range [25] Question: What led to the decision to provide formal guidance? - Management cited confidence from a solid pipeline of opportunities and results from investments in the partner network [33] Question: Did the U.S. government shutdown impact business? - Management confirmed there was no impact from the shutdown [37] Question: Are there any major upcoming renewals in 2026? - Management indicated that there are several renewals and expansions on the horizon [40] Question: What is the status of the Channel Alliance program? - Management emphasized the focus on quality partnerships rather than quantity, with significant players in local markets [41][42]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of approximately $1.55 million, consistent with the first two quarters of the year, but down roughly $600,000 year-over-year due to timing of larger customer orders [4][15] - Year-to-date revenue for 2025 was slightly under $5 million, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous year [4] - The net loss for Q3 2025 was $965,000 or $0.15 per share, compared to a net loss of $739,000 or $0.39 per share in Q3 2024 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - License fee revenue decreased to $918,000 in Q3 2025 from $1.4 million in Q3 2024, while service revenue increased slightly to $268,000 [15] - Hardware sales declined to approximately $364,000 in Q3 2025 from $436,000 in Q3 2024 due to timing of shipments [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced strong demand in the defense sector, with two of the top four largest global defense agencies using its technology [11] - The company is focusing on expanding its market reach in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, particularly through channel sales efforts [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is finalizing a major website overhaul and developing new marketing messaging to enhance its market presence [8] - A significant update to the PortalGuard identity platform is expected to be released in late Q1 or early Q2 2026, which will modernize the platform and improve deployment capabilities [9] - The company is expanding its partner network to enhance market penetration and drive growth [22][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth prospects for 2026, citing a solid pipeline of opportunities and the potential for expanded deployments with existing customers [33][36] - The company is focused on reducing its break-even levels and achieving positive cash flow and profitability [13][44] Other Important Information - The company raised approximately $3 million net of fees through a warrant exercise transaction, significantly improving its cash liquidity [14] - Operating expenses decreased by over 10% through the first nine months of 2023, reflecting cost management efforts [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Was the National Bank of Egypt deal a recurring revenue deal? - Yes, it was an initial deployment with expectations for expanded deployment in the future [20] Question: Are margins lower on the National Bank of Egypt project due to the partnership with Raya? - No, gross margins on software remain over 90% [21] Question: What is the current ARR? - The current ARR is estimated to be in the $6-$7 million range [26] Question: Will the company provide formal guidance for 2026? - The company is confident in its position and may provide guidance as it becomes more predictable [31][34] Question: Did the U.S. government shutdown impact the business? - No, there was no impact from the government shutdown [35] Question: What is the status of the Channel Alliance program? - The program is growing, focusing on quality partnerships that can deliver significant value [38][39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant sell-off in artificial intelligence stocks, particularly affecting Nvidia, which is under pressure to deliver strong earnings amid market volatility [1][4]. - Nvidia's stock experienced a decline of 3.6%, approaching its 50-day moving average, coinciding with a broader market downturn where the Nasdaq composite fell by 2.3% [1]. - The overall market has seen a substantial loss in value, with the AI stock bubble reportedly destroying $1.8 trillion in market capitalization [4]. Group 2 - Analysts on Wall Street are expressing confidence in Nvidia's ability to recover and regain momentum ahead of its earnings report [2]. - The market is closely monitoring Nvidia's performance, especially in light of supply constraints and the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be a critical indicator for the AI sector [4]. - The recent market trends indicate a sharp decline in major stocks associated with AI, including Tesla and Palantir, contributing to a significant drop in the Dow Jones [4].

Core Viewpoint - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which reflects EPS estimates from sell-side analysts for the current and following years, indicating a changing earnings picture [1][2]. - Changes in a company's future earnings potential, as shown by earnings estimate revisions, are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Rising earnings estimates for Palo Alto suggest an improvement in the company's underlying business, which is expected to positively influence its stock price [5][10]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank stock-rating system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance, particularly Zacks Rank 1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7][9]. - The upgrade of Palo Alto to a Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions and potential for market-beating returns [10]. Earnings Estimate Revisions for Palo Alto - For the fiscal year ending July 2026, Palo Alto is expected to earn $3.79 per share, with no year-over-year change, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 3.8% over the past three months [8].

Core Insights - Allegion US has launched the Overtur OnSite App, a significant upgrade to its cloud-based collaboration platform for door and opening management, featuring new inspection tools and mobile performance enhancements [2][4]. Group 1: Product Features - The Overtur OnSite App includes an Inspection Suite with Fire & Egress and General Inspection tools, designed to improve accuracy and streamline workflows [2][4]. - The app supports seamless data syncing, offline capabilities, and real-time collaboration, allowing users to capture field conditions and generate actionable reports efficiently [3][5]. - Users can conduct inspections with guided workflows, generate time-saving reports, sync data to the Overtur web platform, and collaborate in real time [7]. Group 2: Customer Feedback and Development - The app was developed based on direct customer feedback, focusing on faster performance, better collaboration, and adaptable inspection tools [3][5]. - The updated Activities interface and background processing enhance speed and scalability for future enhancements [5]. Group 3: Availability and Access - The Overtur OnSite App became available on September 25, 2025, for iOS and Android devices [6].

Group 1: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) - Palo Alto Networks reported a revenue increase of 15% year on year to US$9.2 billion for FY2025, with operating profit rising 81.7% to US$1.2 billion [2] - Profit before tax climbed 61.5% year on year to US$1.6 billion, and free cash flow increased by 12% to US$3.47 billion [3] - The company announced the acquisition of CyberArk Software for approximately US$25 billion, at a 26% premium to its share price [4] Group 2: Ecolab (ECL) - Ecolab's revenue remained flat at US$7.7 billion for 1H 2025, while operating profit increased by 7.7% to US$1.27 billion [5] - The company generated a free cash flow of US$616.6 million and declared a cash dividend of US$0.65, which is 14% higher than the previous year [6] - Ecolab expects earnings per share for 2025 to be between US$2.02 and US$2.12, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10% to 16% [7] Group 3: DexCom (DXCM) - DexCom reported a revenue increase of nearly 14% year on year to US$2.2 billion for 1H 2025, with operating profit climbing 33.7% to US$346.3 million [8] - The company generated a free cash flow of US$305.5 million, despite a slight dip in net profit to US$285.2 million due to a higher tax bill [9] - The diabetes market is projected to grow significantly, with the number of sufferers expected to rise from 589 million in 2024 to 853 million by 2030 [9][10] Group 4: HubSpot (HUBS) - HubSpot's revenue increased by 17.6% year on year to US$1.47 billion for 1H 2025, with gross profit improving by 16.3% to US$1.24 billion [11] - The company achieved a free cash flow of US$259.8 million, which is 28.7% higher than the previous year [12] - HubSpot's customer count grew by 18% year on year to 267,982, and calculated billings increased by 26% to US$814.3 million [12]

Core Insights - Gen Digital's international operations are crucial for assessing its financial resilience and growth prospects [1][2] - The company's ability to penetrate international markets significantly influences its financial health and growth trajectory [2][3] Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the quarter reached $1.26 billion, marking a 30.3% year-over-year increase [4] - APJ region generated $110 million, accounting for 8.8% of total revenue, which was a 7.36% miss compared to expectations [5] - EMEA region contributed $268 million, representing 21.3% of total revenue, also falling short by 6.43% against analyst projections [6] Future Projections - Analysts expect Gen Digital to report revenues of $1.19 billion for the current fiscal quarter, reflecting a 22.2% increase year-over-year [7] - For the full year, projected total revenue is $4.74 billion, indicating a 20.4% rise from the previous year [8] Market Dynamics - The reliance on global markets presents both opportunities and challenges for Gen Digital, making the analysis of international revenue trends essential for forecasting [9][10] - The company's stock performance has outpaced the S&P 500 over the past month and three months, indicating positive market sentiment [13]

Core Viewpoint - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended July 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on August 18, with a consensus estimate of $0.88 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.3%. Revenues are projected to be $2.5 billion, up 14.2% from the previous year [3][2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.21% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Palo Alto is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.53%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [11]. - A positive Earnings ESP is generally a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3, which increases the likelihood of a positive surprise [9][10]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Palo Alto exceeded the expected earnings of $0.77 per share by delivering $0.80, resulting in a surprise of +3.90%. The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters [12][13]. Conclusion - Despite the historical performance of beating estimates, Palo Alto does not currently appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider other factors before making investment decisions [16].