Market Overview - Bitcoin attempted a rally towards a record high of nearly $124,000 but quickly fell back to below $121,000 within ninety minutes of the U.S. market opening, coinciding with declines in gold and silver markets [1] - Gold has been in the spotlight, but silver's performance was notable, reaching $50 per ounce for the first time, before experiencing a rapid profit-taking drop of about 4% to $48.55 [2] - Gold also saw a reversal of more than 1% from a challenge of the $4,100 per ounce level, currently trading at $4,035 [3] Investor Sentiment - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is impacting investor sentiment, disrupting key economic data releases and slowing operations for businesses reliant on federal services, affecting both traditional and digital asset markets [4] Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - Smaller cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, experienced significant declines, with ether dropping 3.5% to $4,300, while BNB and DOGE fell by 3%-4% [5] - Despite the pullback, Bitcoin's market dominance increased to 59.4%, the highest level in nearly eight weeks, indicating a rotation of capital back to Bitcoin [5] - The pullback in the crypto market led to over $600 million in leveraged trading positions being liquidated across all digital assets in the past 24 hours [6]

格隆汇10月9日｜First Majestic Silver盘前涨超3%，Endeavour Silver涨近3%，Silvercorp Metal涨近2%。 消息面上，现货白银强势上攻，涨幅扩大至超3%，报50.61美元/盎司，续创历史新高。今年迄今累涨逾 21美元，年内涨幅75%。(格隆汇) ...

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack. GM! Today’s top news: Crypto majors chop on the day, Bitcoin holds at $123,000 ZCash soars 35% leading all crypto movers; RAIL jumps 100% Jack Dorsey’s Block rolls out Bitcoin merchant payments with Square Luxembourg sovereign wealth fund invests 1% of assets into BTC Jupiter teams with Ethena t ...

By Gregor Stuart Hunter SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The surge in gold prices above $4,000 per ounce is spilling over into other precious metals on fears the Trump administration's unorthodox economic policies will shift the prevailing trend from de-dollarisation to outright debasement of the U.S. currency. Silver, platinum and palladium are enjoying upsized gains for the year as investors fret about a whole host of geopolitical and economic uncertainties, with U.S. President Donald Trump's attempts to reshape g ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【"逆全球化"与"去美元化"利好黄金，中国央行连续11个月增持】"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，提 升了黄金的配置与避险价值。各国央行购金支撑黄金走势，中国央行9月增储1.24吨，黄金储备达约 2303.523吨，连续11个月增持。 美国劳动力市场放缓，美联储有望持续降息，政府停摆引发避险买兴， 为金银上涨提供动力。 全球最大黄金ETF—SPDR持仓升至1013.16吨，重回1000吨上方；全球最大白银 ETF—iShares持仓达15311.1吨。 分析师认为，沪银仍有震荡拉升态势，建议逢回踩买入，不建议激进 追涨。 ...

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.73%, while the Northbound 50 Index fell by 0.18% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,718 billion yuan, an increase of 4,746 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,100 stocks in the market experienced gains [1] Sector Performance - The sectors with the highest gains included precious metals, controllable nuclear fusion, rare earth permanent magnets, energy metals, wind power equipment, steel, and storage chips [1] - Conversely, the sectors that saw the largest declines were film and television, tourism and hotels, liquor, and duty-free shops [1] Notable Stocks - The surge in international gold prices led to a collective explosion in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, with stocks such as Xingye Silver Tin, Yunnan Copper, Shandong Gold, Sichuan Gold, and Zhaojin Gold hitting the daily limit [1] - The controllable nuclear fusion sector also performed strongly, with stocks like Western Superconducting, Guoguang Electric, and Haheng Huaton reaching the daily limit [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw a rebound in the afternoon, with stocks such as Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and China Ruilin hitting the daily limit [1] - Other sectors like storage chips, wind power equipment, and steel also showed performance during the trading session [1] Declining Stocks - The film and television sector experienced significant declines, with stocks such as Bona Film, Hengdian Film, and China Film hitting the daily limit down [1] - The tourism and hotel sector also performed poorly, with stocks like Caesar Travel, Tianfu Cultural Tourism, and Xiyu Tourism showing the largest declines [1]

ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/10/8 | 4031.06 | 48. 63 | 4053. 40 | 48. 47 | 874. 40 | 10918. 00 | 871. 00 | 10820.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Metals and Commodities - **Company**: Morgan Stanley Research Key Points and Arguments Macro Environment - A supportive macro backdrop is driving a positive outlook for metals, characterized by a falling USD, rate cuts, and low inventories [1][2] - The DXY is forecasted to reach 89 by 4Q 2026, indicating a continuation of the current USD Bear Regime, which is associated with above-average commodity returns [2] - China's demand indicators, excluding property, have shown positive surprises, supported by exports and consumption measures [2] Commodity Outlook - **Gold**: Remains the top pick with a projected 15% upside by 3Q26, driven by strong physical buying and support from lower rates and a weaker USD [3] - **Uranium**: Expected to rise due to strong spot market activity and improving contracting as uncertainties resolve [3] - **Copper**: Supported by macro and micro factors, with supply disruptions pushing the market into a larger deficit in 2026 [3] - **Cobalt**: Market tightening due to limited export quotas from the DRC [3] - **Aluminium**: Capped output in China but increasing volumes from Indonesia [3] - **Zinc**: Faces challenges from strong output in China, which may lead to increased exports [3] - **Iron Ore**: Considered overdone with stretched positioning and anticipated blast furnace cuts [3] Long-term Outlook - Gold is expected to see the largest uplift in long-term forecasts, with adjustments made to consider above-ground stocks as "supply" [4] - Silver and PGM estimates have also increased, while copper and aluminium see minor increases [4] Price Forecasts - Significant upward revisions in price forecasts for gold, with a new estimate of $4,400 per ounce for 2026, reflecting a 26% increase from consensus [11][16] - Copper is forecasted at $10,650 per ton for 2026, a 9% increase from consensus [16] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise to $23.0 per pound, a 35% increase from consensus [16] Risks and Considerations - Demand risks remain, particularly with indications of price sensitivity in China as metals rally [2] - The impact of US tariffs and front-loading may still affect the market [2] - Geopolitical tensions and local opposition could hinder supply projects and lead to mine disruptions [25] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of real assets benefiting from macroeconomic conditions, including inflation and low inventories [2] - The potential for extreme weather to increase electricity demand and costs for smelters is noted [25] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the macroeconomic environment, commodity-specific forecasts, and potential risks that could impact the metals and commodities market.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Traditional Materials in the Asia Pacific region, specifically gold, copper, aluminum, steel, and coal [1][7]. Core Insights and Arguments Gold - **Price and Volume Growth**: Strong prices and above-peer volume growth are expected for Chinese gold miners, with projected double-digit volume growth from 2024 to 2027, while global production is anticipated to be flat or declining. This is expected to lead to strong earnings growth for Chinese gold miners [2]. Copper - **Super Cycle Factors**: A combination of supply disruptions, loose liquidity, and a weak dollar is expected to widen the global copper supply deficit in 2026. The macroeconomic environment is supportive, with abundant liquidity in the US and China, US rate cuts, and a weakening dollar, leading to a bullish outlook for copper equities [3]. Aluminum - **Sustainable Margin Expansion**: The expansion of bauxite supply from Guinea and other countries is leading to an oversupply of alumina globally. China's aluminum capacity is capped at 45 million tons, resulting in higher margins for aluminum smelters, estimated at around Rmb4,000 per ton year-to-date, which is expected to be sustainable. New supply additions for 2025-26 are estimated at 1.6 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively, which is less than the demand growth [4]. Steel - **Production Cuts and Export Strength**: Current steel margins are in the Rmb150-200 per ton range. There is resistance from steel mills and local governments regarding production cuts, which are part of anti-involution measures. Actual cuts are expected to be lower than the previously anticipated 30 million tons, primarily occurring during the winter slow season. Steel exports remain strong as mills adapt to new markets and product types [5]. Coal - **Support for Thermal Coal Prices**: The National Energy Administration's overproduction inspections are expected to reduce coal production in the second half of 2025 to approximately 2.25 billion tons, down 7% quarter-on-quarter and 9% year-on-year. This reduction, combined with the traditional peak consumption season in winter, is expected to support high thermal coal prices [6]. Additional Important Insights - **Price Target Adjustments**: Various companies within the materials sector have had their price targets adjusted based on updated commodity price forecasts. For example, CMOC's price target has been raised to Rmb18.60 from Rmb12.1, reflecting a 6% increase in EPS forecasts for 2025-27 [20]. - **Market Capitalization and Liquidity**: The report includes detailed market capitalization and liquidity data for various companies, indicating a healthy trading environment for the sector [12][14]. - **Long-term Commodity Price Forecasts**: The report provides updated long-term forecasts for commodity prices, indicating expected increases in prices for gold, copper, and aluminum, among others [17][18]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for the traditional materials sector in Asia Pacific is positive, with specific bullish sentiments for gold, copper, and aluminum driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics. The steel and coal sectors face challenges but also show resilience through export strength and seasonal demand.

北京时间10月8日，国际现货黄金价格盘中一度升破4000美元/盎司，为历史首次。前一日，国际期货黄 金价格盘中冲上4000美元/盎司关口。 此外，隔日，现货白银日内继续走高，触及49美元/盎司整数关口，为2011年以来首次，日内涨2.4%。 西部证券认为，当前随着美元信用裂痕持续扩张，金价将开启长期牛市。重启降息意味着美联储独立性 受损，未来美联储独立性会持续受到损害，黄金的储备价值将进一步彰显，目前处于第3波主升浪行情 早期。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 国信证券表示，综合长期逻辑与短期因素，当前黄金市场的支撑体系依然稳固。长期而言，全球货币信 用体系重构、去美元化趋势、各国央行持续购金以及供需结构性失衡等因素构成了黄金上涨的核心支 撑，这一支撑体系在未来2-3年内难以发生根本性改变，因此黄金的长期牛市趋势仍将延续。 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 短期来看，9月份以来的上涨动能虽有所释放，但美联储宽松周期的延续、地缘政治风险的常态化以及 市场投资需求的持续流入，仍将推动金价维持高位震荡偏强的格局。 公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 赤峰黄金：公司在9月10日的投资者关系活动记录表中 ...