观 | 评 | 金银反弹，上周杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔表示风险的转变确实值得我们调整政策立场，被认为 | | --- | --- | | 论 | 是较为鸽派的姿态，增强9月降息预期。美国7月通胀数据呈现反弹，近期美俄谈判释放的积极 | | | 信号令地缘风险降温，金银一度承压。此前7月非农数据不及预期，前值大幅下修。美联储内部 | | 及 | 观点呈现分裂，特朗普通过人事任命影响市场对美联储的预期。贸易谈判呈现多方进展，但整 | | 策 | 体贸易环境仍在恶化。大而美法案落地继续推升美国财政赤字预期，中国央行持续增持黄金， | | 略 | 黄金方面长期驱动仍然提供支撑，当下金银整体或在降息预期升温下呈现偏强走势。 | | 免 | 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 | | 责 | （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） | | 声 | | | 明 | 研究局限性和风险提示 | | | 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在经济表现不及预期，政策判断失误等风险 | | 。 | | | | 分析师声明 | | | 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai gold and silver main contracts closed slightly higher, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation during the session. Trump pressured Fed officials again, which may marginally affect the US dollar's credit and support the safe - haven demand for gold. The precious metals market was pressured by the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs, mainly driven by market sentiment. The market is currently focused on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Powell further releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, interest - rate cuts will provide strong bottom support for gold prices. If the Russia - Ukraine negotiations make substantial progress, it may further release the callback pressure on gold prices; otherwise, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. Operationally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for gold in the short term and focus on short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver. The focus range for the Shanghai gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 775.12, up 2.44; Shanghai silver main contract closing price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9162, up 120 - Main contract positions: Shanghai gold (daily, lots): 183215, down 8259; Shanghai silver (daily, lots): 307098, down 11580 - Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract (daily, lots): 162201, up 1447; Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract (daily, lots): 116447, up 2105 - Warehouse receipt quantity: Gold (daily, kilograms): 36642, up 60; Silver (daily, kilograms): 1115055, down 25144 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price (daily, yuan/gram): 773.25, up 4.55; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9143, up 117 - Basis of Shanghai gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram): - 1.87, up 2.11; Basis of Shanghai silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram): - 19, down 3 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons): 962.21, down 3.15; Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons): 15339.66, down 16.94 - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 229485, down 7565; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 44268, down 6390 - Total gold supply (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.84; Total silver supply (annually, million troy ounces): 987.8, down 21.4 - Total gold demand (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.83; Total global silver demand (annually, million ounces): 1195, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - Historical volatility: 20 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.17, down 0.53; 40 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.6, up 0.12 - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold (daily, %): 16.54, down 0.82; Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold (daily, %): 16.55, down 0.81 [3] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment. - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign immediately, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA Director Pult accused Cook of fraud in two mortgages and called on the Justice Department to investigate. - The CRFB's latest forecast showed that due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies, the US federal budget deficit will reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast. - ECB President Lagarde said that the euro - zone economic growth may slow down this quarter. Although the recent agreement with the US reduced uncertainty, the global trade situation remains unclear [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing upward momentum due to rising market risk aversion, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and a weakening dollar, particularly in the context of declining tech stock prices in the U.S. market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold futures and spot prices have rebounded as U.S. tech giants face stock price declines, with spot gold prices nearing $3,350 [1]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have shown weakness, with significant declines in major tech stocks, including Nvidia, which has seen a nearly 4% drop over two days [1]. - Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup view market fear and risk aversion as key catalysts for short-term gold price increases [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - President Trump is advocating for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, calling for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could allow him to influence future monetary policy [2][4]. - The latest FOMC meeting minutes indicate a hawkish stance, with most policymakers believing that a rate cut is premature despite growing concerns about inflation and labor market weakness [2][4]. - Market participants are eagerly awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech for hints regarding potential rate cuts in September [2]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Trends - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook for gold, predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong global central bank demand and ETF inflows [5]. - Citigroup has revised its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, citing deteriorating economic growth and inflation outlooks [7]. - JPMorgan forecasts that deteriorating non-farm employment data could catalyze gold prices to reach $3,675 per ounce by year-end, with a potential rise to $4,000 per ounce early next year [8].

特朗普再催美联储降息 尽管最新公布的美联储货币政策会议纪要呈现出鹰派立场，但是特朗普本人呼吁美联储理事库克辞职的呼声——库克若真的顶不住压力辞职，将在美联储理 事会留下一个新的空缺有利于特朗普进一步安插支持降息的理事候选人，加之他近期再度呼吁鲍威尔立即推动降息进程且高调表示获得他提名的下一任美联 储主席以及新的美联储理事必须是支持降息的立场，无疑助力关于美联储降息的市场鸽派预期大幅升温。 美联储7月的FOMC货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储的中性货币政策立场获得更加广泛支持，只有两名持异议者支持降息进程。会议纪要显示，尽管对于通 胀和劳动力市场疲软的担忧日益加剧，但是绝大多数政策制定者认为现在降息为时过早。两位美联储理事持不同意见，支持降息，此举意味着30多年来首次 多名理事反对一项货币政策决定。 智通财经APP获悉，在即将举行的杰克逊霍尔全球央行研讨会之前，黄金期货与现货价格在美股市场的科技巨头们股价持续回调之际均重拾涨势。尤其是在 周三美股交易时间段，标普500指数与纳斯达克100指数因科技巨头们股价下行而连续两日疲软之际，市场避险情绪显著升温推动黄金现货价格走高至3350美 元这一超级关口附近，并且金价还得 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The precious metals market is under pressure and has corrected due to the optimistic expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which has led to a phased decline in safe - haven buying demand. The inflation data will be a key factor in assessing the Fed's policy adjustment needs after the unexpectedly weak employment report. The market's bet on a Fed rate cut in September remains high, and the potential downward trend of real interest rates in the medium - term is potentially positive for the gold price. If the July US CPI shows an obvious impact of tariffs on inflation, the Fed's rate - cut window may be further opened, which will put pressure on the gold price. In the medium - term, factors such as the risk of inflation rebound due to tariff implementation, the expectation of the Fed's loose policy, the damage to the US dollar's credit, and the resilience of central bank gold - buying demand still provide strong support, and the bullish logic remains intact, pushing up the gold price center. Short - term investors are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors should maintain the idea of buying on dips and pay attention to risk control. The focus ranges for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract are 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract are 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 776.04 yuan/gram, down 3.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9187 yuan/kilogram, down 23 yuan [2] - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 204,736 lots, down 6908 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 349,123 lots, down 9578 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 165,867 lots, down 6005 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 117,755 lots, down 649 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of gold warehouse receipts was 36,045 kilograms, unchanged; the number of silver warehouse receipts was 1,151,209 kilograms, down 753 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 774 yuan/gram, down 4.5 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9134 yuan/kilogram, down 50 yuan [2] - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 2.04 yuan/gram, down 1.06 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 53 yuan/kilogram, down 27 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 964.22 tons, up 4.58 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,058.6 tons, up 67.8 tons [2] - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 237,050 contracts, up 13,454 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 50,658 contracts, down 8749 contracts [2] - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.88%, up 0.17%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.12%, up 0.29% [2] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 19.97%, up 1.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 19.97%, up 1.28% [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US will continue to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods stipulated in Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. Starting from August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended for another 90 days, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff [2] - The Trump team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair. The Trump administration is considering including Fed Governor Bowman, Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Logan as candidates. The White House is expected to announce the Fed Chair candidate this fall [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 14.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.9%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 39.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 55.1% [2]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. gold futures reached a record high due to uncertainty surrounding potential country-specific import tariffs on commonly traded gold bars, impacting global supply chains and the U.S. gold futures market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - December U.S. gold futures rose to $3,494.10 per ounce, hitting a record of $3,534.10 earlier in the session, following reports of potential tariffs [2]. - Spot prices eased to $3,394 per ounce but increased by 0.9% for the week, with the spread between U.S. gold futures and spot prices widening to $100 [7]. Group 2: Implications of Tariffs - The potential imposition of tariffs could threaten New York's dominance in the gold futures market, as prices have risen sharply compared to other trading centers [5]. - Swiss goods, including gold, are subject to U.S. import tariffs of 39%, with ongoing negotiations aimed at reducing these levies [8]. Group 3: Industry Concerns - The Swiss Precious Metals Association expressed concerns regarding the impact of tariffs on the gold industry and is actively engaging with stakeholders on the matter [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued optimistic view of the bond market and A-share structural opportunities, but does not explicitly provide a specific industry investment rating [12] Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the substantial price increases of commodities are driven by the dual positive factors of heightened expectations for supply-side reform and increased demand from the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project. The bond market is not significantly affected by the commodity price hikes, and the short - term adjustment presents an opportunity to go long on the bond market. In the stock market, the Politburo meeting at the end of July may introduce pro - growth policies, and the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden are expected to keep investors' risk appetite at a relatively high level. There are still investment opportunities in sectors such as rare earths, artificial intelligence, innovative drugs, and commodities [12] Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - **US Stocks**: In the past week (20250721 - 20250727), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by 1.02%, 1.46%, and 1.26% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 1.91%, and the Hang Seng Index changed by 2.27% [3] - **A - shares**: The Wind All - A Index rose 2.21%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - cap stocks changed by 2.29%, 1.69%, 3.28%, 1.81%, and 3.63% respectively. In terms of sector styles, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite 50 and STAR Market 50 changing by 1.12% and 4.63% respectively, and the Shenzhen Component 100 and ChiNext Index changing by 2.12% and 2.76% respectively. The North Exchange 50 Index changed by 2.85% [4] - **Industry Performance**: Among the 30 CITIC industries, 4 declined and 26 rose. Leading industries included coal, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, and construction, with weekly gains exceeding 6%. In terms of ETF performance, rare metals, coal, building materials, non - ferrous metals, and Hong Kong securities performed well, with weekly gains above 7% [4] Bond Market Performance - **Interest - rate Bonds**: In the past week (20250721 - 20250727), the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.56% compared to July 18, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose 6.72 BP to 1.7324%. Yields of maturities of 6 months and above increased, with longer - term yields rising more, making the yield curve steeper [5] - **Funding Costs**: As of July 25, 2025, R007 was 1.6937%, up 18.65 BP from July 18, 2025, and DR007 was 1.6523%, up 14.56 BP. The spread between them widened. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 70.5 billion yuan through open - market operations (reverse repurchase operations and central bank bill swaps) in the past week [6] - **Bond Market Leverage**: The bond market leverage level increased. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 7.24 trillion yuan on July 18, 2025, to 7.70 trillion yuan on July 25, 2025. As of July 25, 2025, the spreads between the yields of 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds and IRS007 were - 14.52, - 1.76, and 22.25 BP respectively [7] - **US Treasury Bonds**: In the past week (20250721 - 20250727), US Treasury yields showed a pattern of short - term increases and long - term decreases. As of July 25, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 4 BP to 4.40%. Yields of maturities of 3 years and below increased, while those of other maturities decreased, making the yield curve flatter [7][9] Currency and Commodity Markets - **US Dollar**: The US dollar index fell 0.80% in the past week (20250721 - 20250727). The US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by - 1.00%, - 0.19%, and - 0.76% respectively. The US dollar against the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates fell 0.18% and 0.12% respectively [10] - **Gold**: In the past week (20250721 - 20250727), international gold prices fell, with the London gold spot price down 0.35% to $3343.5 per ounce and the COMEX gold futures price down 0.61% to $3329.1 per ounce. Domestic gold prices rose, with the Shanghai gold spot up 0.09% to 774.21 yuan per gram and the futures up 0.01% to 774.70 yuan per gram [10] Trade Negotiations - The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines, Japan, and the EU. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement on July 27, 2025. Sino - US economic and trade talks will be held in Sweden from July 27 - 30, 2025, and their progress is worthy of attention [11]

Core Insights - The report highlights the evolving dynamics of the U.S. economy, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation, with June CPI data reflecting these influences. The overall market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path remain stable, with anticipated rate cuts in September and December [6][7]. Market Trends - Domestic market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,559.79, up 0.72%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 11,007.49, up 0.86% [4]. - In the U.S. market, major indices exhibited mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.07%, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.51% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.59% [6]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The report notes a decline in initial jobless claims to 221,000, continuing a five-week downward trend. The June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.67%, up from 2.38%, indicating a rebound influenced by tariffs, particularly in used car prices and imported goods [6][7]. - The analysis suggests limited further increases in tariffs due to insufficient economic fundamentals to absorb negative impacts, with expectations that the inflationary effects of tariffs will diminish by the third quarter [6]. Currency and Credit Dynamics - The report discusses the historical evolution of the U.S. dollar's credit anchor, transitioning from the gold standard to a debt-driven economy, highlighting the challenges faced by the dollar in maintaining its value amidst increasing debt and geopolitical uncertainties [9][10]. - Short-term outlook for the dollar indicates a weak and volatile trend, with potential for structural depreciation in the medium term due to diverging monetary policies and fiscal sustainability concerns [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Emerging market equities and bonds are becoming increasingly attractive, with expectations of foreign capital inflows boosting stock prices, particularly in domestic demand-driven sectors. Bonds are expected to benefit from a rebalancing of dollar assets [10]. - The report emphasizes the continued importance of gold as an investment, recommending accumulation during price corrections, supported by factors such as a weak dollar and central bank demand for diversification [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. The increase in tariffs by Trump has raised corporate costs, and if the tariff scope expands or negotiations fail, it will accelerate inflation and strengthen the inflation - hedging property of gold. Although the market focuses on the September interest rate cut expectation, the core inflation has not continuously heated up, and the real interest rate is difficult to decline, so the gold price may be trapped in a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, the transmission of tariffs to the end - user will increase inflation stickiness, and the recovery of easing expectations will be beneficial to the gold price. The expansion of the US fiscal and trade double deficits and the protracted frictions will weaken the US dollar's credit and support the central bank's gold - buying demand. It is recommended to buy gold on dips and be cautious about the correction risk of silver [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.7 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month increase of 4.68; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9271 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 2. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 211,239 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 8952; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 467,534 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,142. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 147,538 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 4931; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 135,033 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8235. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kg, with no change; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,204,466 kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 6610 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 775.7 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month increase of 4; the spot price of silver is 9200 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 31. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 6 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.68; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 71 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 33 [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 948.5 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.29; the silver ETF holdings are 14,694.95 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 124.34. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 202,968 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 988; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 58,521 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 4879. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, with a decrease of 21.4. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.83; the global total annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, with a decrease of 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.21%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.28 [2] 3.5 Industry News - An informed source said that US Treasury Secretary Bessent privately advised President Trump not to try to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Bessent believes that apart from the overall economic factors, Fed officials have signaled that they may cut interest rates twice by the end of the year. The US House of Representatives passed the 2026 fiscal year defense appropriation bill with 221 votes in favor and 209 against, with a total amount of about $832 billion. President Trump posted on social media that three Iranian nuclear facilities had been "completely destroyed". US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who is visiting Japan, said that the two countries could reach a "good" trade agreement, but hinted that the process might take more time. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 39.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 58%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors, including U.S. Federal Reserve policies, trade tensions, and rising geopolitical risks [3][5][10] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight recovery in U.S. economic activity, but manufacturing remains weak, with rising raw material costs due to tariffs, leading to increased inflation risks [3][5] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July have decreased from 35% to 23%, which has strengthened the U.S. dollar and put short-term pressure on gold prices [5] Group 3 - The escalation of trade tensions, with the U.S. imposing significant tariffs on imports from Japan, Brazil, and Sri Lanka, is expected to impact global trade dynamics and support gold prices as a safe-haven asset [6] - Historical data suggests that during periods of heightened trade friction, gold prices typically trend upwards, indicating a potential bullish outlook for gold amid current trade uncertainties [6] Group 4 - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to the conflict in Yemen and the Suez Canal crisis, have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven investment, with insurance premiums for war risks reaching a 15-year high [7] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern issues, contribute to market uncertainty, further driving gold's appeal [7] Group 5 - Technically, gold prices are oscillating between key moving averages, indicating a consolidation phase, with potential for either a short-term pullback or further upward movement depending on price action around critical levels [8] Group 6 - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to its characteristics of low correlation with traditional financial assets and steady returns, making it attractive to global investors [10] - Future developments to monitor include the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, progress in August tariff negotiations, and the evolution of geopolitical situations, all of which will influence gold's trajectory [10]