Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.63% to 3,913.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.13%[3] - U.S. stocks fell sharply, with the Dow Jones down 1.73% to 45,166 points, and the Nasdaq dropping 2.15% to 20,948 points, amid concerns over global economic recession[10] - European markets declined, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index falling approximately 1.1%, erasing year-to-date gains[10] Commodity and Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index surpassed 100, while gold prices rebounded nearly 3%, reaching $4,494.09 per ounce[4][27] - Crude oil prices surged, with WTI crude rising 5.46% to $99.64 per barrel and Brent crude increasing 4.22% to $112.57 per barrel due to escalating Middle East tensions[26][27] - The Japanese yen fell below the 160 mark against the dollar, reflecting market volatility[27] Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators - China's industrial profits for January-February reached 10,245.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, marking the highest value in four months[6] - U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a three-month low in March, as reported by the University of Michigan[6] - The European Central Bank's officials indicated potential interest rate hikes if the conflict in Iran persists beyond June[6] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, healthcare and lithium battery sectors led gains, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,951.88 points, up 0.38%[12] - In the U.S., large tech stocks faced significant declines, with Meta and Amazon both dropping around 4%[10] - The energy sector in the U.S. saw gains due to rising oil prices, with Chevron increasing by 1.62%[10]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Monday following a lower close on Friday, with major benchmark indices showing positive movement [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 0.27%, S&P 500 by 0.46%, Nasdaq 100 by 0.50%, and Russell 2000 by 0.51% [3] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.26%, while the two-year bond was at 3.70% [2] - Markets are pricing a 99.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March [2] Company Performance - Getty Images Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GETY) rose 4.31% with expected earnings of 3 cents per share on revenue of $246.22 million [7] - Semtech Corp. (NASDAQ:SMTC) was up 0.39% with anticipated earnings of 43 cents per share on revenue of $273.20 million [7] - Urgently, Adobe (ADBE), and MicroStrategy (MSTR) maintain weaker price trends over short, medium, and long terms according to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings [3][4][5] Analyst Insights - Mohamed El-Erian highlights a U.S. economy facing persistent inflation at 3.1% and a downward revision of fourth-quarter GDP to 0.7%, indicating a slowdown [9][10] - El-Erian warns of a new phase in global markets due to targeting of energy infrastructure, which could lead to broader inflationary pressures and systemic financial instability [11] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include March's Empire State manufacturing survey, February's industrial production, and capacity utilization [14] - The FOMC interest-rate decision is scheduled for release at 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Powell [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risk remains the main line for gold, and attention should be paid to the gold - silver ratio strategy for silver. Gold shows a volatile trend, while silver is relatively weak. The price ranges are 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram for gold and 18500 - 22000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3]. - The geopolitical impact has not subsided, and the continuous high price of crude oil has led to concerns about recession. The short - term unilateral drive of gold is in a dilemma, and the trading value is limited. Two scenarios are considered: if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the US - Iran conflict drags on, gold may fall with risk assets but perform relatively strongly; if the US - Iran conflict eases and the crude oil price rises and then falls, the decline of the US dollar will cause gold to rebound, but risk assets may perform even stronger. Currently, the probability of the former scenario is increasing, and there is a risk of accelerated decline for silver [3]. - Although the unilateral trading opportunity for gold is not clear, the conflict has increased the odds of going long on gold, and the downside support is constantly rising. Continued attention should be paid to the regression of the gold - silver ratio, and it is believed that the gold - silver ratio is expected to return to the central position of 80 - 100 in the next 1 - 2 quarters [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Spread - For gold, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract rebounded to - 5.002 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was - 2.1 US dollars/ounce [8][9]. - For silver, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract rebounded to - 0.061 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.975 US dollars/ounce [8][15]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Spread - The gold spot - futures spread this week was - 1.75 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [20]. - The silver spot - futures spread this week was - 36 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread - The gold monthly spread this week was 9.46 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. - The silver monthly spread this week was 101 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [30]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - For gold, the total cost of buying TD and shorting Shanghai gold was 24.79 yuan/gram; the total cost of buying Shanghai gold December contract and shorting June contract was 7.16 yuan/gram [33][34]. - For silver, the total cost of buying TD and shorting Shanghai silver was 441.34 yuan/kilogram; the total cost of buying Shanghai silver December contract and shorting June contract was 417.22 yuan/kilogram [35][36]. 3.1.5 Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Gold and Silver Spot in Shanghai Gold Exchange - This week, for gold, the deferred fee was mainly paid from long to short, indicating strong delivery power; for silver, the deferred fee was mainly paid from short to long, indicating strong receiving power [37]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16.49 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rebounded to 51.3% [39]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 230 tons to 10628 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 23.1% [41]. - The gold futures inventory increased by 0.38 tons, and the silver futures inventory increased by 70.61 tons to 326 tons [45]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold rebounded slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver rebounded slightly [47]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the gold SPDR ETF position decreased by 1.76 tons, and the domestic gold ETF increased by 4.9 tons [50]. - The silver SLV ETF position decreased by 301 tons [54]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio dropped from 62.7 last week to 60 [56]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.188%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 2.03% [58]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [63]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - Relevant data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales are presented, showing the inflation and retail sales situation [68]. 3.2.3 Non - Farm Employment Performance - Data on US new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, average weekly working hours, and average hourly wage are provided [70][71][72][73]. 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not elaborated in detail in the given content 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not elaborated in detail in the given content 3.2.6 Fed Rate - Cut Probability - Not elaborated in detail in the given content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - International crude oil price surge pushed up market inflation expectations, causing the gold price to rise first and then fall. Last week, gold prices fluctuated and adjusted. After a sharp rise on Monday due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and risk - aversion sentiment, the gold price oscillated downward from Tuesday. This was due to the panic in the energy supply chain, the rise in the US inflation expectation, the increase in the US dollar index, and the concern about liquidity in the global stock market [2]. - This week (the week of March 9), the gold price will oscillate and rise. The US government's measures to ease oil price pressure are expected to cause oil prices to fall from their high levels, and the previous suppression of gold prices by soaring oil prices will be significantly alleviated. However, due to high geopolitical risks and uncertain US inflation trends, the expectation of interest rate cuts remains low, which will limit the increase in the gold price [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Last Week's Market Review - **Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends**: Last Friday (March 6), the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 1,140.80 yuan/gram, down 7.10 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the COMEX gold futures price closed at $5,181.30 per ounce, down $115.10 per ounce. The spot gold T + D price closed at 1,138.46 yuan/gram, down 4.02 yuan/gram; the London gold spot price closed at $5,168.01 per ounce, down $110.25 per ounce [3]. - **Gold Basis**: Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was -$9.95 per ounce, up $47.75 per ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was -2.22 yuan/gram, up 2.02 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [6]. - **Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: Last week, the international crude oil price rose significantly, reducing the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut. The decline of the foreign - market gold price was greater than that of the domestic market. The domestic - foreign price difference of gold on Friday was -74.05 yuan/gram, up significantly from -89.78 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The gold - oil ratio decreased significantly, the gold - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - copper ratio increased slightly [9]. - **Position Analysis**: In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings decreased significantly last week. As of last Friday, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 1,073.32 tons, a decrease of 28.01 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T + D increased significantly. In terms of futures positions, as of February 24, the long and short positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions both decreased, but the decline of short positions was larger, resulting in a slight increase in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the COMEX gold futures inventory continued to decrease, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory decreased by 27 kilograms to 105,033 kilograms [14]. II. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Important Economic Data** - US manufacturing PMI in February continued to expand for two consecutive months, and the price index soared to a nearly four - year high. The ISM manufacturing activity index in February slightly declined to 52.4, and the S&P manufacturing PMI dropped from 52.4 to 51.6, hitting a nearly seven - month low [19]. - The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the highest level in three months. However, the January data was significantly revised downward, and the breadth of employment creation was insufficient [20]. - The US ISM services PMI in February rose, and the order backlog index increased significantly. The service industry index rose to 56.1, and the new order sub - index climbed to 58.6, hitting a nearly one - year high [21]. - The soaring oil price impacted the interest rate cut expectation, and the expectation of US bond traders that the Fed would not cut interest rates this year increased. As of March 5, the probability that the Fed would maintain the current interest rate range by December was 25%, higher than 17% the previous week [22]. - The US non - farm payrolls in February were disappointing, with a net decrease of 92,000 employed people and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. However, the wage data strengthened, increasing the complexity of the Fed's policy judgment [24]. - The US retail sales in January decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, the first negative growth since October last year. After excluding some items, the "control group" sales increased by 0.3% month - on - month, indicating a relatively stable consumer end [25]. - **Fed Policy Tracking** - On March 6, Fed Governor Waller said that the Iran war would not have a continuous impact on inflation and reiterated his preference for a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [29]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the weak non - farm employment data in February deepened her concerns about the labor market, but policymakers should not over - interpret single - month data, and the Fed should not cut interest rates immediately due to "bilateral risks" [30]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee hopes that the Fed can resume interest rate cuts by the end of this year [31]. - **US Dollar Index Trend**: Last week, the US dollar index rose significantly. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the sharp rise in oil prices, and international crude oil being priced in US dollars, the US dollar index rose by 1.34% to 98.96 as of last Friday [31]. - **US TIPS Yield Trend**: Last week, the US 10 - year TIPS yield rose significantly. The continued expansion of the US manufacturing PMI in February and the sharp rise in international crude oil prices increased market concerns about inflation rebound, causing the 10 - year TIPS yield to rise by 8 basis points to 1.80% as of Friday [32]. - **International Important Event Tracking**: The US - Iran conflict continued to expand. Last week, the US, Israel, and Iran continued to launch attacks. Trump demanded that Iran surrender unconditionally, but Iran vowed not to surrender, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it was ready for a full - scale war lasting at least six months. Tehran elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the supreme leader [37].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy, and trade tariffs, with short-term price strength expected due to ongoing uncertainties [3][4]. Group 1: Market Data - On February 27, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 1147.90 yuan per gram, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.09% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 194,706 contracts, while the open interest stood at 150,146 contracts [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 1143.00 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 4.9 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 4,000 to 212,000, which was below market expectations of 215,000 [3]. - The number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits decreased to 1.83 million [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - U.S. President Trump announced plans to implement a uniform 15% tariff on imported goods following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn the previous tariff framework [3]. - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif indicated that recent negotiations with the U.S. have made significant progress, with technical discussions scheduled to continue [3]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Jinrui Futures suggests that the ongoing issues surrounding Iran and the U.S. trade policies contribute to market uncertainties, which may support gold prices in the short term [4]. - The current neutral U.S. monetary policy and the recent rebound of the dollar are leading to a phase of adjustment in precious metals after a period of gains [4].

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI down 0.3% closing above $65 per barrel and Brent below $71 per barrel [3][20] - The third round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded in Geneva, with reports of "positive" progress from US officials and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif [4][18] - A key indicator showed Brent crude oil signaling oversupply for the first time since 2024, with the price spread between Brent and WTI widening to $5.89 per barrel [5][19] Copper Market - Copper prices saw a minor decrease, with futures down 0.1%, ending a two-day upward trend [10][22] - LME copper closed at $13,304.5 per ton, reflecting a lack of bullish drivers in the industrial metals market [10][22] Precious Metals - Gold prices rose slightly, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and US tariff policies, with a cumulative increase of nearly 6% over the past six trading days [14][27] - The new 10% global tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have heightened trade tensions, impacting market sentiment [27] - As of 4:09 PM New York time, spot silver fell 0.33% to $88.9338 per ounce, while spot gold increased by 0.67% to $5,199.33 per ounce [15][27]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on how political events and policy uncertainty influence asset prices, particularly gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [1] - Historical experience shows that gold reacts more to changes in risk expectations rather than purely economic conditions, with rising policy uncertainty leading to increased gold allocation as a risk hedge [3] - The relationship between inflation, interest rates, and gold is crucial, as lower real interest rates typically make gold more attractive to investors [5] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the complexity of market dynamics, noting that rising stock markets can coincide with increasing gold prices if accompanied by fiscal expansion or rising debt levels [6] - It highlights the importance of understanding different investment forms in gold, such as gold ETFs, physical gold, and futures, each with distinct risk profiles [8] - The article advises investors to adopt a comprehensive framework for asset allocation, viewing gold as a balancing tool rather than a speculative instrument [6]

Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices have declined for the third consecutive day as investors assess the possibility of a nuclear agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which could prevent military action against Iran [2][17] - WTI crude oil fell by 1%, settling below $66 per barrel, while Brent crude oil closed below $71 per barrel [2][19] - The market remains sensitive to news related to Middle Eastern conflicts, with skepticism about Iran's readiness to reach an agreement [2][17] Group 2: Base Metals - Base metals experienced a collective increase, with copper prices rising significantly [5][20] - London copper prices saw an intraday increase of 2.8%, reaching $13,228 per ton, while aluminum prices also saw a slight rise [6][21] - At the close, LME copper was up 2.3% at $13,166.5 per ton, and LME aluminum rose by 0.1% to $3,093.5 per ton [8][24] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold prices fell after a four-day increase, driven by uncertainties in U.S. trade policy and escalating tensions in the Middle East [14][28] - Gold prices dropped by 2.5% at one point but recovered some losses due to a weaker dollar, ultimately down 1.2% at $5,165.65 per ounce [15][29] - The previous four-day rise in gold prices was attributed to safe-haven buying amid geopolitical tensions, with a total increase of over 7% [14][29]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.13% at 50,121.4 points, the S&P 500 down marginally at 6,941.47 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.16% at 23,066.47 points [1][3] - The Wind US Technology Seven Giants Index fell by 0.57%, with notable declines in Alphabet-C and Microsoft, both dropping over 2% [1][3] Employment Data - The US Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, significantly exceeding market expectations, while the previous month's figure was revised down to 48,000 [1] Technology Sector Analysis - The technology sector is experiencing a shift from "unilateral growth" to a "painful transition," facing dual pressures: AI-related anxieties and tightening liquidity [3] - Concerns over the valuation of software stocks have intensified, particularly due to fears that non-public large model companies may disrupt the software ecosystem, leading to a reevaluation of software stock valuations [3] Commodity Prices - International gold and silver prices saw increases, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.53% to $5,107.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.6% to $84.085 per ounce [4] - NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil both rose by over 1% [4] Venezuela-US Energy Discussions - The interim president of Venezuela met with the US Secretary of Energy to discuss energy-related agendas, including oil, natural gas, mining, and electricity projects [5] - This meeting marks a significant diplomatic engagement following recent military actions by the US in Venezuela, with discussions aimed at establishing a "new relationship" [6]

Group 1 - International precious metal prices rebounded, with gold futures and spot prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce [1] - Gold prices increased by over 1.5% during the trading day, while silver prices returned to $80 per ounce, with silver futures rising by over 5% [1] - The rebound in precious metal prices was supported by a weaker dollar and investors buying on dips [1] Group 2 - Gold prices rose nearly 5% over the past week due to signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market and increased market risk aversion [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 50,000 points for the first time, driven by a rebound in some tech stocks [2] - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude down 2.55% and Brent crude down 3.73%, amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] - The upcoming earnings reports from software and data analysis companies will be closely watched to assess the impact of AI technology on their business [2]