Group 1: Report Information - Report date: March 23, 2026 [1] - Report cycle: Daily report [1] - Analyst: Du Yu (Qualification number: F3075043; Investment consulting certificate number: Z0017815) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - On March 23, 2026, the SHFE silver main contract (AG.SHF) showed a sharp decline. The opening price was 17,693 yuan/kg, the closing price was 15,411 yuan/kg, the highest price was 17,899 yuan/kg, the lowest price was 15,070 yuan/kg, and the daily fluctuation range reached 15.77% [2] Group 3: Spot Market Basis Analysis - On March 23, 2026, the average domestic silver price was 16,475 yuan/kg, the lowest price was 16,470 yuan/kg, and the highest price was 16,480 yuan/kg. The average price of silver in the 1 non - ferrous market was 16,720 yuan/kg. The SHFE silver closing price was 15,411 yuan/kg, 1,064 yuan/kg lower than the domestic silver spot average price, with the futures price significantly at a discount to the spot price, mainly affected by the rapid decline in the futures market on that day [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Fed officials' recent statements are divided. Governor Waller pointed out that if employment is weak, interest rate cuts will be postponed, while Vice - Chair Bowman expects three interest rate cuts this year. The nominal interest rate has rebounded far more than inflation expectations, and the real interest rate has risen sharply, directly suppressing the valuation of precious metals. The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice, stating that the price fluctuations of precious metals have significantly increased recently, and required member units to make risk emergency plans and guide investors to rationally control positions [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - In the short term, the silver price has largely released the callback pressure due to panic. Overnight overseas market trends, real interest rate changes, and geopolitical risks will be the core factors affecting the subsequent trend. Before the market sentiment is fully calmed, the price may still maintain high - volatility characteristics [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risk remains the main line for gold, and attention should be paid to the gold - silver ratio strategy for silver. Gold shows a volatile trend, while silver is relatively weak. The price ranges are 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram for gold and 18500 - 22000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3]. - The geopolitical impact has not subsided, and the continuous high price of crude oil has led to concerns about recession. The short - term unilateral drive of gold is in a dilemma, and the trading value is limited. Two scenarios are considered: if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the US - Iran conflict drags on, gold may fall with risk assets but perform relatively strongly; if the US - Iran conflict eases and the crude oil price rises and then falls, the decline of the US dollar will cause gold to rebound, but risk assets may perform even stronger. Currently, the probability of the former scenario is increasing, and there is a risk of accelerated decline for silver [3]. - Although the unilateral trading opportunity for gold is not clear, the conflict has increased the odds of going long on gold, and the downside support is constantly rising. Continued attention should be paid to the regression of the gold - silver ratio, and it is believed that the gold - silver ratio is expected to return to the central position of 80 - 100 in the next 1 - 2 quarters [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Spread - For gold, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract rebounded to - 5.002 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was - 2.1 US dollars/ounce [8][9]. - For silver, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract rebounded to - 0.061 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.975 US dollars/ounce [8][15]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Spread - The gold spot - futures spread this week was - 1.75 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [20]. - The silver spot - futures spread this week was - 36 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread - The gold monthly spread this week was 9.46 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. - The silver monthly spread this week was 101 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [30]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - For gold, the total cost of buying TD and shorting Shanghai gold was 24.79 yuan/gram; the total cost of buying Shanghai gold December contract and shorting June contract was 7.16 yuan/gram [33][34]. - For silver, the total cost of buying TD and shorting Shanghai silver was 441.34 yuan/kilogram; the total cost of buying Shanghai silver December contract and shorting June contract was 417.22 yuan/kilogram [35][36]. 3.1.5 Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Gold and Silver Spot in Shanghai Gold Exchange - This week, for gold, the deferred fee was mainly paid from long to short, indicating strong delivery power; for silver, the deferred fee was mainly paid from short to long, indicating strong receiving power [37]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16.49 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rebounded to 51.3% [39]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 230 tons to 10628 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 23.1% [41]. - The gold futures inventory increased by 0.38 tons, and the silver futures inventory increased by 70.61 tons to 326 tons [45]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold rebounded slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver rebounded slightly [47]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the gold SPDR ETF position decreased by 1.76 tons, and the domestic gold ETF increased by 4.9 tons [50]. - The silver SLV ETF position decreased by 301 tons [54]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio dropped from 62.7 last week to 60 [56]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.188%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 2.03% [58]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [63]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - Relevant data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales are presented, showing the inflation and retail sales situation [68]. 3.2.3 Non - Farm Employment Performance - Data on US new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, average weekly working hours, and average hourly wage are provided [70][71][72][73]. 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not elaborated in detail in the given content 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not elaborated in detail in the given content 3.2.6 Fed Rate - Cut Probability - Not elaborated in detail in the given content

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI down 0.3% closing above $65 per barrel and Brent below $71 per barrel [3][20] - The third round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded in Geneva, with reports of "positive" progress from US officials and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif [4][18] - A key indicator showed Brent crude oil signaling oversupply for the first time since 2024, with the price spread between Brent and WTI widening to $5.89 per barrel [5][19] Copper Market - Copper prices saw a minor decrease, with futures down 0.1%, ending a two-day upward trend [10][22] - LME copper closed at $13,304.5 per ton, reflecting a lack of bullish drivers in the industrial metals market [10][22] Precious Metals - Gold prices rose slightly, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and US tariff policies, with a cumulative increase of nearly 6% over the past six trading days [14][27] - The new 10% global tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have heightened trade tensions, impacting market sentiment [27] - As of 4:09 PM New York time, spot silver fell 0.33% to $88.9338 per ounce, while spot gold increased by 0.67% to $5,199.33 per ounce [15][27]

Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices have declined for the third consecutive day as investors assess the possibility of a nuclear agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which could prevent military action against Iran [2][17] - WTI crude oil fell by 1%, settling below $66 per barrel, while Brent crude oil closed below $71 per barrel [2][19] - The market remains sensitive to news related to Middle Eastern conflicts, with skepticism about Iran's readiness to reach an agreement [2][17] Group 2: Base Metals - Base metals experienced a collective increase, with copper prices rising significantly [5][20] - London copper prices saw an intraday increase of 2.8%, reaching $13,228 per ton, while aluminum prices also saw a slight rise [6][21] - At the close, LME copper was up 2.3% at $13,166.5 per ton, and LME aluminum rose by 0.1% to $3,093.5 per ton [8][24] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold prices fell after a four-day increase, driven by uncertainties in U.S. trade policy and escalating tensions in the Middle East [14][28] - Gold prices dropped by 2.5% at one point but recovered some losses due to a weaker dollar, ultimately down 1.2% at $5,165.65 per ounce [15][29] - The previous four-day rise in gold prices was attributed to safe-haven buying amid geopolitical tensions, with a total increase of over 7% [14][29]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by U.S. retail sales data, which showed unexpected stagnation, indicating downward pressure on the economy and potentially impacting silver prices [3][4]. Group 1: Silver Market Data - On February 11, the closing price of Shanghai silver futures was 20,944 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.88% with a trading volume of 504,079 lots and an open interest of 211,818 lots [1]. - The spot price of silver in Shanghai on the same day was quoted at 22,146 yuan per kilogram, which is a premium of 1,202 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales for December 2025 showed an unexpected zero growth month-on-month, significantly below the expected increase of 0.4% and down from a previous growth of 0.6% [3][4]. - Core retail sales decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, contrary to the expected growth of 0.3%, indicating weak consumer performance, particularly among low-income groups reliant on wage growth [3][4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Commentary - Federal Reserve officials, including Logan and Harmack, indicated that the current policy stance is close to neutral, suggesting no immediate need for further interest rate cuts if inflation decreases and the labor market remains stable [3]. - The Fed's interest rate policy may remain unchanged for an extended period, reflecting a cautious approach to economic stimulation [3].

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.13% at 50,121.4 points, the S&P 500 down marginally at 6,941.47 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.16% at 23,066.47 points [1][3] - The Wind US Technology Seven Giants Index fell by 0.57%, with notable declines in Alphabet-C and Microsoft, both dropping over 2% [1][3] Employment Data - The US Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, significantly exceeding market expectations, while the previous month's figure was revised down to 48,000 [1] Technology Sector Analysis - The technology sector is experiencing a shift from "unilateral growth" to a "painful transition," facing dual pressures: AI-related anxieties and tightening liquidity [3] - Concerns over the valuation of software stocks have intensified, particularly due to fears that non-public large model companies may disrupt the software ecosystem, leading to a reevaluation of software stock valuations [3] Commodity Prices - International gold and silver prices saw increases, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.53% to $5,107.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.6% to $84.085 per ounce [4] - NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil both rose by over 1% [4] Venezuela-US Energy Discussions - The interim president of Venezuela met with the US Secretary of Energy to discuss energy-related agendas, including oil, natural gas, mining, and electricity projects [5] - This meeting marks a significant diplomatic engagement following recent military actions by the US in Venezuela, with discussions aimed at establishing a "new relationship" [6]

Group 1 - International precious metal prices rebounded, with gold futures and spot prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce [1] - Gold prices increased by over 1.5% during the trading day, while silver prices returned to $80 per ounce, with silver futures rising by over 5% [1] - The rebound in precious metal prices was supported by a weaker dollar and investors buying on dips [1] Group 2 - Gold prices rose nearly 5% over the past week due to signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market and increased market risk aversion [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 50,000 points for the first time, driven by a rebound in some tech stocks [2] - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude down 2.55% and Brent crude down 3.73%, amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] - The upcoming earnings reports from software and data analysis companies will be closely watched to assess the impact of AI technology on their business [2]

Group 1 - International precious metal prices rebounded, with gold futures and spot prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce [1] - Silver prices also returned to $80 per ounce, with significant daily increases in both gold and silver futures [1] - Factors supporting the rebound include a weaker dollar and investors buying on dips [1] Group 2 - Gold prices increased nearly 5% over the past week, influenced by signs of a slowing U.S. labor market and rising market risk aversion [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 50,000 points for the first time, driven by a rebound in some tech stocks [2] - Oil prices declined due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential disruptions to oil supply [2] Group 3 - The upcoming earnings season for U.S. stocks continues, with a focus on software and data analysis companies amid concerns over AI technology replacing traditional services [2] - Major companies like Coca-Cola and McDonald's are set to release their latest earnings as the earnings season approaches its conclusion [2]

Group 1 - The international gold price has rebounded, surpassing $5000 per ounce, with April futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange showing an intraday increase of over 1.5% [1] - The international silver price has also returned to the $80 per ounce mark, with March futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange experiencing an intraday rise of over 5% [2] - Factors contributing to the rebound in precious metal prices include a weakening dollar and investors buying on dips [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the financial markets, particularly focusing on the recent drastic fluctuations in silver prices and their impact on the stock market, emphasizing the importance of managing risk and liquidity during such events [1][2]. Group 1: Market Volatility - On January 30, silver prices experienced a significant drop of over 30%, marking the largest single-day decline since 1980, which also affected the stock market, leading to a more than 12% drop in the non-ferrous metal index within three trading days [1]. - The article highlights the potential risks for investors using leverage, noting that a 1x leveraged investor could face a nearly 60% loss if they bought at the peak, with the possibility of forced liquidation if prices continued to fall [1]. - The article reflects on past market events, such as the liquidity crisis in 2015 and 2016, where leveraged investors faced severe consequences, emphasizing the need for caution in volatile markets [1][3]. Group 2: Managing Risk - The article stresses the importance of maintaining sufficient cash reserves and avoiding excessive debt to withstand market fluctuations, advocating for a conservative investment strategy [4][5]. - It draws a comparison between investing and farming, suggesting that investors should adopt a long-term perspective and be prepared for occasional market downturns, rather than engaging in high-risk speculative trading [5]. - The article cites Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, which includes maintaining cash reserves, avoiding leverage, and steering clear of high-risk stocks, reinforcing the idea that successful investors view themselves as farmers rather than hunters [5][6]. Group 3: Lessons from History - Historical events, such as the 9/11 attacks and the 2008 financial crisis, are referenced to illustrate the potential for sudden market declines and the importance of being prepared for such scenarios [3][4]. - The article emphasizes that while some investors may become wealthy through leverage, it can also lead to significant losses, highlighting the addictive nature of leverage and the risks associated with it [4][5]. - It concludes with a reminder that avoiding catastrophic mistakes is paramount for investors, advising against high-priced investments, risky companies, and excessive leverage [6].