"此外，白银现货的紧张也导致期现结构的变化。"顾佳男表示，10月前后，伦敦现货白银较期货一度出 现高升水，显示现货极端紧张。 12月10日，COMEX白银期货和沪银均创历史新高！COMEX白银期货价格最高突破62美元／盎司；截 至当日收盘，沪银期货主力合约报收于14373元／千克，涨幅达5.44%。 随着贵金属价格的上涨，港股市场上相关个股多数走强。截至发稿，灵宝黄金涨9.36%、中国白银集团 涨7.46%、珠峰黄金涨3.78%、赤峰黄金涨1.32%。 海通期货研究所总经理助理顾佳男表示，近日白银价格在黄金高位盘整的状态下大幅飙升，金银比已降 至70附近，接近2023年的低点，但当前全球经济增长势头远不及2022—2023年，仅用经济增长这一因素 无法完全解释金银比的下降。 "白银价格大幅上涨的主要原因是需求端的结构性变化。"顾佳男分析称，今年以来，白银需求端出现了 两个极为重要的变化。一是美国年初加征关税，并把白银列入关键矿物，导致很多贸易商从年初开始大 幅从海外进口白银至美国。白银隐含租赁利率在10月一度飙升超过35%，尽管近期仍维持在6%左右， 但已远超短期融资成本，这表明现货市场出借意愿极低，库存紧张 ...

今日周五(12月12日)亚盘时段，白银现货目前交投于63.54一线上方，今日开盘于63.51美元/盎司，截至 发稿，白银现货暂报63.56美元/盎司，上涨0.02%，最高触及63.93美元/盎司，最低下探62.89美元/盎 司，目前来看，白银现货盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 据AXIOS网站报道，特朗普政府周四对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的三名侄子、一名与马杜罗政权关系密切 的商人以及六家运输委内瑞拉石油的公司实施了新的制裁。 据悉，这是特朗普向马杜罗施压的最新举措。而在制裁的前一天，美国扣押了一艘载有委内瑞拉原油的 船只。 一位特朗普政府内部人士称："还有很多事情要做。马杜罗、他的家人和他的亲信有一个选择：停止毒 品走私，停止腐败，停止独裁统治，离开这个国家，否则就要付出代价。" 另外据外媒报道，六名知情人士表示，继本周扣押一艘油轮后，美国正准备拦截更多运输委内瑞拉石油 的船只，以加大对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的压力。 【最新白银现货行情解析】 即时阻力位在周四的收盘点附近63.50美元。进一步上方，12月初交易区间的261.8%斐波那契扩展位在 63.85美元。若突破该水平，将使65.00美元的心理关口成为焦点 ...

受全球供需缺口持续扩大、强劲工业消费以及投资者兴趣重燃等因素影响，白银价格自8月下旬以来快 速上涨，今年价格涨幅已超过100%，表现远超黄金。 美国联邦储备委员会降息预期也助推白银价格上涨。美联储定于9日和10日举行货币政策会议并公布议 息决定。市场人士表示，近期美国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能在本月降息25个基点。 受强劲基本面拉动，芝加哥期货交易所明年3月交割的白银期货价格9日大幅上涨，场内交易一度突破每 盎司61美元，白银现货价格也突破每盎司60美元关口，创历史新高。 此外，全球资金大量涌入以白银为支撑的交易所交易产品（ETP），进一步强化银价上涨趋势。分析人 士认为，白银价格将继续保持稳健上升趋势，但短期大概率呈高位震荡态势，回调风险不容忽视。新华 社 ...

新华社纽约12月9日电（记者徐静）受强劲基本面拉动，芝加哥期货交易所明年3月交割的白银期货价格 9日大幅上涨，场内交易一度突破每盎司61美元，白银现货价格也突破每盎司60美元关口，创历史新 高。 美国联邦储备委员会降息预期也助推白银价格上涨。美联储定于9日和10日举行货币政策会议并公布议 息决定。市场人士表示，近期美国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能在本月降息25个基点。 此外，全球资金大量涌入以白银为支撑的交易所交易产品（ETP），进一步强化银价上涨趋势。分析人 士认为，白银价格将继续保持稳健上升趋势，但短期大概率呈高位震荡态势，回调风险不容忽视。 （完） 受全球供需缺口持续扩大、强劲工业消费以及投资者兴趣重燃等因素影响，白银价格自8月下旬以来快 速上涨，今年价格涨幅已超过100%，表现远超黄金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver futures and spot prices have reached historical highs in 2023 due to a combination of supply-demand gaps and expectations of interest rate cuts, with significant price increases outpacing gold [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 1, 2023, London spot silver and futures prices were $57.49/oz and $59.14/oz, reflecting increases of 95.5% and 97.8% year-to-date, surpassing gold's price increase of 60.18% for spot and 60.16% for futures [2]. - In Shanghai, silver spot and futures prices have also seen substantial increases of 74.46% and 74.39% respectively, outpacing gold's price growth [2]. - The gold-silver ratio has reached its lowest point since August 2021, indicating that silver's price increase is relatively higher than that of gold [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - The total open interest in silver futures and options has risen to its highest point of the year, driven by bullish sentiment amid expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2]. - As of October 14, 2025, total open interest in COMEX silver futures and options was 241,700 contracts, a 35.08% increase from the beginning of the year [2]. - Industrial demand for silver is significantly higher than for gold, with silver accounting for 54.76% of total demand in 2023, compared to gold's 6.38% [3]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Global silver supply has remained relatively stable, with a total supply of 1.011 billion ounces in 2023, while demand has outstripped this supply, resulting in a negative supply gap of 184 million ounces [6]. - China's silver market has shown signs of accelerating inventory depletion, with a significant increase in silver spot outflows and a sharp decline in futures inventory [5][6]. - As of December 1, 2023, COMEX silver futures inventory was 456 million ounces, up 42.99% year-to-date, but down 9.65% from the year's peak [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The expectation of a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could enhance silver's investment and speculative appeal, while the growing industrial demand for silver in technology applications may further support its price [6][7]. - The anticipated peak in silver demand for solar panel production is projected to be around 7,000 tons, although current usage remains high [7].

Group 1 - Silver prices surged to a record high of $58.8 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100%, outperforming gold's 60% rise [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw silver futures rise over 5% in night trading, indicating increasing market enthusiasm [1] Group 2 - Three main factors support the rise in silver prices: supply constraints, active speculative trading, and macroeconomic conditions with policy expectations [3] - Global silver inventories are under pressure, with Shanghai Futures Exchange's associated warehouse silver stocks at a nearly ten-year low [3] - The U.S. Geological Survey listed silver as a critical mineral last month, raising speculation about potential trade restrictions affecting silver circulation [3] Group 3 - Speculative trading has been a significant driver of price increases, with short-term capital inflows attracted by rapid price movements [3] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to its lowest since August 2021, nearing 70, indicating silver's relative strength against gold [3] - The cost difference between silver call and put options has widened to the highest level since 2022, reflecting strong market sentiment for price increases [3] Group 4 - Macroeconomic conditions are supportive, with slowing U.S. economic data enhancing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4] - Recent monitoring tools indicate a high probability of interest rate cuts, bolstered by the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed leader, who is seen as favoring accommodative policies [4] - Internationally, Japan's two-year government bond yield surpassed 1% for the first time since 2008, raising concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, prompting investors to reassess asset allocations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors and fundamental market dynamics, with silver outperforming gold significantly this year [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 1, the London spot silver price reached a historic high, breaking the $57 per ounce mark, and was reported at $56.88 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.85% [1] - The Shanghai silver futures contract opened high and peaked at 13,520 yuan, marking a 7.78% increase, with a monthly gain exceeding 10% [1] - Year-to-date, international silver prices have risen over 90%, significantly outpacing gold [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current rise in silver prices is seen as a result of both macroeconomic conditions and fundamental market factors [1] - Domestic investors have heavily allocated to silver, including physical silver and silver LOF, which has locked in part of the silver supply [1] - High silver prices in international markets have opened up profit opportunities for silver exports, leading to tighter market liquidity [1] Group 3: Investment Risks - With silver prices having increased over 70% this year, there are accumulating investment risks associated with this rapid price appreciation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Global silver prices have reached a historic high, with the London spot price peaking at $57.862 per ounce on December 1, indicating strong market dynamics driven by supply and demand factors [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 1, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's AG (T+D) contract reached a maximum price of 13,482 yuan per kilogram, closing at 13,261 yuan, reflecting a 5.51% increase [2]. - The main silver futures contract AG2602 hit a high of 13,520 yuan per kilogram, closing at 13,278 yuan, with a 5.86% increase, while the near-month contract AG2512 peaked at 13,789 yuan, closing at 13,282 yuan, marking a 5.82% increase [2]. - Both futures contracts achieved historical high prices during this trading session [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a tightening supply situation, with a significant accumulation of supply-demand gaps over recent years, and a rise in investment sentiment [2][3]. - Current silver futures inventory stands at 573 tons, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory at 715 tons, totaling 1,288 tons, which is at a historical low [2]. Group 3: Market Changes - The correlation between domestic and international silver markets has reached unprecedented levels, with a correlation coefficient of over 0.96 between Shanghai silver futures and COMEX silver futures [3]. - Silver futures volatility has surged to 60, significantly exceeding historical averages, with multiple instances of daily price fluctuations exceeding 5% in October and November [3]. - A premium for physical silver has emerged, with the spot market showing premiums exceeding 5%, indicating a tightening supply and increasing demand in the global physical silver market [3]. Group 4: Inventory Trends and Risk Management - Recent trends indicate an increase in silver inventory, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's delivery inventory rising by 40 tons last week and an additional 14 tons on December 1 [4][5]. - In the context of high volatility in silver futures prices, the use of options strategies is recommended for risk management, providing flexibility and the ability to hedge against market uncertainties [5][6]. - Effective position and capital management are crucial for investors, who should consider their asset status, investment goals, and risk tolerance when investing in silver futures [6].

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The People's Bank of China continues to enforce a prohibitive policy against virtual currencies, emphasizing that they do not hold the same legal status as fiat currencies and are considered illegal financial activities [2] - The central bank aims to enhance monitoring capabilities and combat illegal activities related to virtual currencies to protect public assets and maintain financial order [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In November, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest improvement in economic conditions [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, with the construction sector showing a slight increase while the service sector declined [3][4] Group 3: Market Adjustments - Major indices such as CSI 300 and CSI 500 will undergo sample adjustments effective December 12, impacting stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Shenghong Technology [5] - A new regulation has been introduced that eliminates the requirement for individuals to register the source of funds when withdrawing over 50,000 yuan, allowing banks to assess risk before questioning clients [6] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market has seen significant price increases, with silver futures and spot prices reaching historic highs, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and tight supply conditions [7] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Citic Securities suggests that a significant change in domestic demand is necessary to unlock market potential, recommending a focus on resource and traditional manufacturing sectors [10] - China Galaxy emphasizes the importance of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in determining policy direction for 2026, which could influence market sentiment and investment strategies [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its volatile adjustment pattern during the session. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in November was 51.9, a 4 - month low, while the service industry index was 55, with the employment sub - item declining. The labor market faces further downward risks. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has risen from 40% to 70%, potentially benefiting precious metal prices. Geopolitically, the US and Ukraine are negotiating a cease - fire, but the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. In the short term, the precious metals market lacks clear positive factors, and gold and silver prices will enter a range - bound period. In the long term, the US government's debt pressure weakens the US dollar's credit foundation, and gold remains attractive. The recommended price range for the Shanghai Gold 2602 contract is 900 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2602 contract is 11500 - 12300 yuan/kilogram [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 930.32 yuan/gram, up 3.38 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 11808 yuan/kilogram, up 128 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 164620 hands, up 4310 hands; those of Shanghai Silver were 347468 hands, up 830 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 106620 hands, up 1060 hands; those of Shanghai Silver were 91476 hands, up 4192 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 0 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 0 kilograms, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 925.39 yuan/gram, down 2.11 yuan; the spot price of silver was 11818 yuan/kilogram, down 97 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 4.93 yuan/gram, down 5.49 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 10 yuan/kilogram, down 225 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 1040.57 tons, up 1.14 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15257.92 tons, up 11.29 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 231956 contracts, down 20952 contracts; those of silver were 46217 contracts, down 3522 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1248.76 tons, up 42.73 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.07 tons, up 86.25 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 22.13%, up 0.18%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 28.38%, down 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.09%, down 3.17%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 22.09%, down 3.17% [2] Industry News - Ukraine's Zelensky reported multiple rounds of high - level peace talks in Geneva, Switzerland, saying that "substantive dialogue" had begun, but the specific plan was still highly uncertain. The US Treasury Secretary said that the government shutdown caused a permanent loss of $11 billion to the US GDP, and the overall economy was not at risk of recession. Multiple Fed officials signaled a rate cut, and after their speeches, the market's bet on a Fed rate cut in December exceeded 50% [2]