黄金股逆势上涨，黄金资源涨超6%，哈莫尼黄金涨超5%，金罗斯黄金涨超1%。 消息面上，受美国降息预期和美元疲软的影响，现货黄金日内再创新高，最高触及3508.7美元/盎司。 此外，白银现货亦突破40美元大关，创14年来新高。(格隆汇) ...

来源：中国商报 中国商报（记者 马文博）今天A股迎来调整。截至收盘，上证指数跌0.45%，深证成指跌2.14%，创业板指跌2.85%，北证50涨0.4%。沪深京三市 全天成交额为29124亿元，较上一日放量1348亿元。全市场超4000只个股下跌。在板块题材上，CPO、半导体、铜缆高速连接等算力硬件股跌幅居 前，银行、贵金属、peek材料、电力、工业母机板块涨幅居前。 01 银行股上涨 今天，银行板块逆市走强。 截至8月底，上市银行半年报已经披露完毕。半年报数据显示，42家A股上市银行上半年共实现营业收入超2.9万亿元，同比增长超过1%；实现归 母净利润1.1万亿元，同比增长0.8%。 其中，工行、建行、农行、中行上半年净利润均超过千亿元，六大商业银行的不良贷款率都保持在低位。 湘财证券分析，上市银行整体营业收入、归母净利润同比增速分别由一季度的-1.7%、-1.2%升至上半年的1.0%、0.8%，双双由负转正。 中泰证券发布的研报称，银行股经营模式和投资逻辑从"顺周期"到"弱周期"：市场强时，银行股短期偏弱；经济偏平淡期间，银行股高股息持续 具有吸引力，继续看好银行股的稳健性和持续性。 02 贵金属板块继续 ...

| 3844.84 | 12545.82 | | 2870.72 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 -0.79% | 深证成指 -2.21% | | 创业板指 -2.90% | | | | 创业板指(SZ:399006) | | | | 加自选 | | | 2870.72 -85.65 -2.90% | | | | 56.31 万球友关注 休盘中 09-02 11:32:54 北京时间 | | | 最高: 2979.73 | 今开: 2951.03 | 成交量:2.08亿手 | 换手:3.91% | | | | 最低:2868.69 | 昨收:2956.37 | 成交额:5291.63亿 | 量比: 1.28 | | | | 52周最高: 2979.73 | 上涨:92 | 振幅: 3.76% | 平盘:4 | | | | 52周最低: 1520.72 | 下跌:845 | 总市值: 16.67万亿 | | | | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 季K 年K 120分 60分 30分 15分 5分 1分 | | | 区间统计 | 全屏示不 ...

9月首个交易日迎来贵金属的集体强势行情。国际黄金现货今日最多时涨逾1%，接近3500美元的高点。 而白银现货终于突破了40美元大关，创造2011年以来新高，日内涨幅超过2%。截至北京时间17：00， 白银现货价格在40.754美元。 白银兼具贵金属和工业金属属性，业内认为，美联储降息预期和光伏需求爆发共同驱动白银价格走高。 在突破40美元关键阻力位后，白银价格波动加剧，上方目标直指2011年的高点49.8美元。当前，白银价 格仍处于补涨阶段。 图：伦敦银现价格走势 （资料来源：Wind数据，智通财经整理） 贵金属的集体强势一方面仍与美联储9月的降息预期逐渐明朗有关，在北京时间8月22日晚美联储主席鲍 威尔于杰克逊霍尔年会上的发言"转鸽"后，国际金价与银价就开启了新一轮上涨。 8月29日晚公布的7月美国核心PCE物价指数录得2.9%，未超出市场预期。根据芝加哥商品交易所的美联 储政策工具，9月17日联邦基金利率调降25bp的概率已升至87.2%。 此外，特朗普罢免库克一案持续发酵，美联储独立性受到挑战。美国总统特朗普8月25日以涉嫌住房抵 押贷款欺诈为由宣布解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克，库克28日对特朗普提起诉讼， ...

观 | 评 | 金银反弹，上周杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔表示风险的转变确实值得我们调整政策立场，被认为 | | --- | --- | | 论 | 是较为鸽派的姿态，增强9月降息预期。美国7月通胀数据呈现反弹，近期美俄谈判释放的积极 | | | 信号令地缘风险降温，金银一度承压。此前7月非农数据不及预期，前值大幅下修。美联储内部 | | 及 | 观点呈现分裂，特朗普通过人事任命影响市场对美联储的预期。贸易谈判呈现多方进展，但整 | | 策 | 体贸易环境仍在恶化。大而美法案落地继续推升美国财政赤字预期，中国央行持续增持黄金， | | 略 | 黄金方面长期驱动仍然提供支撑，当下金银整体或在降息预期升温下呈现偏强走势。 | | 免 | 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 | | 责 | （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） | | 声 | | | 明 | 研究局限性和风险提示 | | | 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在经济表现不及预期，政策判断失误等风险 | | 。 | | | | 分析师声明 | | | 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai gold and silver main contracts closed slightly higher, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation during the session. Trump pressured Fed officials again, which may marginally affect the US dollar's credit and support the safe - haven demand for gold. The precious metals market was pressured by the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs, mainly driven by market sentiment. The market is currently focused on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Powell further releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, interest - rate cuts will provide strong bottom support for gold prices. If the Russia - Ukraine negotiations make substantial progress, it may further release the callback pressure on gold prices; otherwise, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. Operationally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for gold in the short term and focus on short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver. The focus range for the Shanghai gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 775.12, up 2.44; Shanghai silver main contract closing price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9162, up 120 - Main contract positions: Shanghai gold (daily, lots): 183215, down 8259; Shanghai silver (daily, lots): 307098, down 11580 - Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract (daily, lots): 162201, up 1447; Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract (daily, lots): 116447, up 2105 - Warehouse receipt quantity: Gold (daily, kilograms): 36642, up 60; Silver (daily, kilograms): 1115055, down 25144 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price (daily, yuan/gram): 773.25, up 4.55; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9143, up 117 - Basis of Shanghai gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram): - 1.87, up 2.11; Basis of Shanghai silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram): - 19, down 3 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons): 962.21, down 3.15; Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons): 15339.66, down 16.94 - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 229485, down 7565; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 44268, down 6390 - Total gold supply (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.84; Total silver supply (annually, million troy ounces): 987.8, down 21.4 - Total gold demand (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.83; Total global silver demand (annually, million ounces): 1195, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - Historical volatility: 20 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.17, down 0.53; 40 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.6, up 0.12 - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold (daily, %): 16.54, down 0.82; Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold (daily, %): 16.55, down 0.81 [3] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment. - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign immediately, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA Director Pult accused Cook of fraud in two mortgages and called on the Justice Department to investigate. - The CRFB's latest forecast showed that due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies, the US federal budget deficit will reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast. - ECB President Lagarde said that the euro - zone economic growth may slow down this quarter. Although the recent agreement with the US reduced uncertainty, the global trade situation remains unclear [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The precious metals market is under pressure and has corrected due to the optimistic expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which has led to a phased decline in safe - haven buying demand. The inflation data will be a key factor in assessing the Fed's policy adjustment needs after the unexpectedly weak employment report. The market's bet on a Fed rate cut in September remains high, and the potential downward trend of real interest rates in the medium - term is potentially positive for the gold price. If the July US CPI shows an obvious impact of tariffs on inflation, the Fed's rate - cut window may be further opened, which will put pressure on the gold price. In the medium - term, factors such as the risk of inflation rebound due to tariff implementation, the expectation of the Fed's loose policy, the damage to the US dollar's credit, and the resilience of central bank gold - buying demand still provide strong support, and the bullish logic remains intact, pushing up the gold price center. Short - term investors are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors should maintain the idea of buying on dips and pay attention to risk control. The focus ranges for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract are 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract are 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 776.04 yuan/gram, down 3.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9187 yuan/kilogram, down 23 yuan [2] - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 204,736 lots, down 6908 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 349,123 lots, down 9578 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 165,867 lots, down 6005 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 117,755 lots, down 649 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of gold warehouse receipts was 36,045 kilograms, unchanged; the number of silver warehouse receipts was 1,151,209 kilograms, down 753 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 774 yuan/gram, down 4.5 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9134 yuan/kilogram, down 50 yuan [2] - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 2.04 yuan/gram, down 1.06 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 53 yuan/kilogram, down 27 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 964.22 tons, up 4.58 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,058.6 tons, up 67.8 tons [2] - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 237,050 contracts, up 13,454 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 50,658 contracts, down 8749 contracts [2] - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.88%, up 0.17%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.12%, up 0.29% [2] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 19.97%, up 1.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 19.97%, up 1.28% [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US will continue to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods stipulated in Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. Starting from August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended for another 90 days, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff [2] - The Trump team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair. The Trump administration is considering including Fed Governor Bowman, Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Logan as candidates. The White House is expected to announce the Fed Chair candidate this fall [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 14.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.9%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 39.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 55.1% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant turmoil in global financial markets, driven by political statements, Federal Reserve dynamics, and economic data, indicating a potential shift away from the dollar's dominance and the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing interest rates and inflation. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is facing a critical moment with a 96.9% probability of maintaining interest rates in July and a 62.6% expectation of a rate cut in September [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, with members split into three camps regarding interest rate policy, reflecting differing views on inflation and economic conditions [4] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged with a 9:2 vote, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members opposed the mainstream decision [7] Group 2: Market Reactions - Trump's call for an immediate 300 basis point rate cut led to panic in the markets, with gold prices surging by $20 and the dollar index dropping by 25 points [3] - Following Trump's retraction of his dismissal threat against Powell, market volatility persisted, indicating a fragile confidence in the Federal Reserve's independence [3] - The bond market reacted sharply, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, signaling the onset of a "long-term high interest rate era" [6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, exceeding expectations, but analysts pointed out that the actual growth rate, after adjusting for imports and inventory changes, was only 1.14% [8] - Inflation remains a concern, with the core CPI rising 2.9% year-on-year, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, driven in part by tariffs [4] Group 4: Commodity Market Movements - Gold futures prices reached a historic peak of $3444 per ounce, while silver prices also surged, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid market uncertainty [7] - Contrastingly, the Chinese gold market experienced a decline, with significant drops in retail gold prices, indicating divergent market behaviors between East and West [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current turmoil in the financial markets, driven by political pressures, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, rising bond yields, and global trade tensions, all of which are contributing to a potential shift in the global financial order. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market anticipates a 96.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, with a 62.6% chance of a rate cut in September [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with three factions emerging: dovish, cautious about inflation, and hawkish, with differing views on interest rate adjustments [4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady reflects the complex interplay of political and economic pressures, with significant implications for future monetary policy [9] Group 2: Political Influences - President Trump's late-night tweet demanding a 300 basis point rate cut caused immediate market reactions, including a spike in gold prices and a drop in the dollar index [3] - The White House has begun the process of selecting a new Federal Reserve chair, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy direction [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 5%, marking the beginning of a "long-term high interest rate era," which could lead to increased debt servicing costs for the government [5] - The yield curve is approaching levels not seen since the 1980s, raising concerns about potential market instability [5] Group 4: Global Trade and Technology - The U.S.-China tech rivalry continues to escalate, with significant developments such as NVIDIA's approval to export AI chips to China, impacting market sentiment [6] - Trade tensions are further exacerbated by new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Indonesian products, leading to retaliatory threats from other nations [6] Group 5: Precious Metals Market - Gold futures prices have surged to a historical peak of $3444 per ounce, while silver prices have also seen significant increases, reflecting heightened demand amid market volatility [7] - In contrast, the domestic gold market in China has experienced a decline in sales, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior amidst fluctuating prices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. The increase in tariffs by Trump has raised corporate costs, and if the tariff scope expands or negotiations fail, it will accelerate inflation and strengthen the inflation - hedging property of gold. Although the market focuses on the September interest rate cut expectation, the core inflation has not continuously heated up, and the real interest rate is difficult to decline, so the gold price may be trapped in a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, the transmission of tariffs to the end - user will increase inflation stickiness, and the recovery of easing expectations will be beneficial to the gold price. The expansion of the US fiscal and trade double deficits and the protracted frictions will weaken the US dollar's credit and support the central bank's gold - buying demand. It is recommended to buy gold on dips and be cautious about the correction risk of silver [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.7 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month increase of 4.68; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9271 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 2. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 211,239 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 8952; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 467,534 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,142. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 147,538 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 4931; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 135,033 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8235. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kg, with no change; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,204,466 kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 6610 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 775.7 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month increase of 4; the spot price of silver is 9200 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 31. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 6 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.68; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 71 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 33 [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 948.5 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.29; the silver ETF holdings are 14,694.95 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 124.34. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 202,968 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 988; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 58,521 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 4879. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, with a decrease of 21.4. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.83; the global total annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, with a decrease of 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.21%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.28 [2] 3.5 Industry News - An informed source said that US Treasury Secretary Bessent privately advised President Trump not to try to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Bessent believes that apart from the overall economic factors, Fed officials have signaled that they may cut interest rates twice by the end of the year. The US House of Representatives passed the 2026 fiscal year defense appropriation bill with 221 votes in favor and 209 against, with a total amount of about $832 billion. President Trump posted on social media that three Iranian nuclear facilities had been "completely destroyed". US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who is visiting Japan, said that the two countries could reach a "good" trade agreement, but hinted that the process might take more time. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 39.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 58%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7% [2]