Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has recently fallen below the $86,000 mark, indicating a broader weakness in the cryptocurrency market, which is not an isolated event but part of a long-term trend of weak performance during U.S. trading hours [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The recent price action shows that Bitcoin remained relatively stable overnight, but selling pressure increased significantly with the opening of U.S. stock markets. This "time zone difference" is becoming an important market observation signal, influenced by changes in capital flow and the trading mechanisms of spot Bitcoin ETFs [1][2]. - The divergence in performance between post-market holding strategies and intraday trading is continuing to widen, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [2]. Impact on Related Stocks - It is not surprising that cryptocurrency-related stocks have also declined, with significant adjustments seen in companies like Strategy, Circle, Coinbase, and various trading platforms and mining companies. This independent decline in the crypto sector reflects a deepening differentiation within risk assets compared to the mild pullbacks in traditional stock indices [3]. Macroeconomic Environment - Upcoming key economic data and major central bank policy meetings are expected to influence global liquidity expectations. Although these factors have not yet directly altered Bitcoin's mid-term range structure, market sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious as the year-end approaches, with funds more inclined to control risk exposure [4]. - Technically, Bitcoin is still operating within a range of $80,000 to $94,000. The order book indicates concentrated buying around $85,000, which may provide short-term support and limit further declines [4]. - Despite a cooling expectation for year-end rebounds, the current price behavior appears to be more about phase digestion and position clearing. In the absence of structural negative factors, this process is not sufficient to define a trend reversal, and the market still requires time for adjustment and rebalancing [4].

Economic Indicators - The Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to -3.9 in December, weaker than the expected 10.0 [3] - Economists forecast that Nonfarm Payrolls for November will be 51K, with October payroll data expected to show substantial losses in government jobs [6] - U.S. Average Hourly Earnings for November are expected to rise by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.6% year-over-year, compared to +0.2% month-over-month and +3.8% year-over-year in September [8] - Retail sales for October are anticipated to rise by +0.1% month-over-month, while core retail sales are expected to increase by +0.2% month-over-month [9] - The December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 52.0, and the S&P Global Services PMI is expected to be 54.0 [10] Stock Market Movements - Wall Street's main stock indexes ended in the red, with ServiceNow (NOW) plunging over -11% after news of a potential acquisition for $7 billion [4] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fell as Bitcoin's price dropped more than -4%, with Riot Platforms (RIOT) down over -10% and Strategy (MSTR) down more than -8% [4] - iRobot (IRBT) plummeted over -72% after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection [4] - KLA Corp. (KLAC) rose more than +2% after being upgraded to Buy from Hold with a price target of $1,500 [4] Central Bank Insights - Fed Governor Stephen Miran indicated that the central bank's policy stance is overly restrictive for the economy, citing a benign inflation outlook [2] - New York Fed President John Williams stated that monetary policy is well-positioned for next year following a recent rate cut [2] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins supported the recent rate cut, noting that the balance of risks had shifted [2] European Market Developments - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.14%, with defense stocks slipping due to progress in Ukraine peace talks [11] - Eurozone business activity growth slowed more than anticipated in December, with manufacturing contraction deepening [11] - The German December ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 45.8, stronger than expectations of 38.4 [13] Asian Market Trends - China's Shanghai Composite Index closed down -1.11%, with economic indicators showing weakened momentum in November [15] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply lower, with financial and energy stocks leading the declines [16] - The Japanese December au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) stood at 49.7, stronger than expectations of 49.0 [18]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing tightening liquidity, with a significant slowdown in capital inflows ahead of the holiday season [1][2] - The 60-day market cap change of Tether's USDT has decreased from $15.38 billion on November 1 to $4.83 billion recently, indicating a contraction in available capital [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The stablecoin supply has remained relatively stable between $285 billion and $290 billion, suggesting that while funds are present in the ecosystem, they are not being actively deployed [3] - Stablecoin exchange reserves reached an all-time high of $80 billion but saw an 11% drop during Bitcoin's recovery, indicating cautious capital deployment [3][4] Group 2: Capital Deployment and Market Sentiment - Capital is described as cautious, with investors waiting for lower prices or engaging in short-term rotations without significant commitments, which limits potential market gains [4] - Bitcoin's liquidity remains resilient but is weakening, with potential upside capped without renewed demand for ETFs or expansion of stablecoins [4] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Bitcoin is expected to trade between the "true mean" price of around $81,000 and the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $102,000, with potential for price consolidation [6] - A breakout above the short-term holder cost basis could lead to new highs, while failure to maintain support above the true mean could indicate deeper bearish momentum [7]

LATEST: 🇺🇸 SEC Chair Paul Atkins said at the Crypto Task Force's latest roundtable that he is confident the US can shape a crypto framework that respects personal freedoms and avoids blockchain becoming a tool for financial surveillance. https://t.co/47as6el0t6 ...

Core Insights - The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) has removed cryptocurrency from its list of systemic financial threats in its 2025 annual report, marking a significant regulatory shift under the Trump administration [1] - The 2025 report emphasizes responsible growth and regulatory clarity for the crypto sector, contrasting sharply with the previous year's warnings about stablecoins being a vulnerability [2] Legislative Progress and Regulatory Changes - The FSOC's 2025 report acknowledges the role of digital assets in innovation and economic development, highlighting recent legislative progress that has addressed prior concerns [2][3] - The passage of the GENIUS Act in July established a comprehensive federal framework for payment stablecoins, requiring licensed issuers to maintain reserves in highly liquid assets and limiting rehypothecation [3][4] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the continued use of dollar-denominated stablecoins supports the dollar's role in international finance [4] Banking Access and Regulatory Environment - Federal agencies have withdrawn restrictive guidance that previously discouraged banks from engaging with crypto firms, with the SEC eliminating prior-notification requirements for offering digital asset custody services [5] - Banking regulators rescinded joint statements that pushed crypto activity outside traditional finance, and the Federal Reserve returned oversight to normal supervisory processes [5] - Preliminary findings from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency revealed that the largest national banks imposed inappropriate restrictions on lawful crypto businesses from 2020 to 2023 [6] - Comptroller Jonathan Gould criticized these practices as harmful to lawful enterprises and an inappropriate use of national bank charters [7]

Macro Signals 2025. Photo by BeInCrypto Markets are in the last full trading week of 2025, and with Christmas Holidays approaching, Wall Street’s sector rotation is sending signals that crypto traders cannot ignore. Capital is moving away from crowded Big Tech and AI trades into financials, industrials, and materials, reshaping liquidity conditions that often spill into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins. For investors looking to position themselves ahead of 2026, these flows could offer critical clues abou ...

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Core Viewpoint - Gemini Space Station Inc. (NASDAQ:GEMI) is projected to double in value by 2026, despite recent price target reductions from major financial institutions [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Gemini reported revenue of $49.8 million, marking a 52% sequential increase, driven by a 45% rise in trading volume and over 100% growth in credit card transaction volume [3]. - Transaction revenue reached $26.3 million, up 26% sequentially, supported by spot trading volumes of $16.4 billion, which increased by 45% quarter-over-quarter [3]. Product Development - Gemini launched the Gemini Wallet, a self-custody smart wallet, and expanded multi-network support, including a Solana edition of the Gemini Credit Card and Solana Staking from Custody for institutions [4]. - Management reaffirmed a medium-term target for Monthly Transacting Users to grow at a CAGR of 20% to 25% [4]. Financial Projections - For the full year 2025, Gemini expects services revenue and interest income to reach between $60 million and $70 million, with sales and marketing expenses projected to total between $45 million and $60 million [4].

Stablecoin Development - SBI Holdings and Startale Group to jointly develop a regulated yen-denominated stablecoin [1] - The stablecoin will be compliant with Japanese financial regulations [1]

Core Insights - Startale Group and SBI Holdings have signed a memorandum of understanding to develop a yen-denominated stablecoin aimed at global settlement and institutional use, targeting a $300 billion stablecoin market [1][2] - The project combines Startale's blockchain technology with SBI's extensive financial reach, with Shinsei Trust & Banking managing issuance and redemption, and SBI VC Trade overseeing circulation as a licensed crypto asset exchange [2][5] - The yen stablecoin is positioned as core infrastructure for digital financial services, integrating traditional finance with tokenized assets, as stated by SBI Holdings Chairman Yoshitaka Kitao [3][4] Group 1 - The initiative aligns with Japan's new stablecoin regulations and the FSA's Payment Innovation Project, which supports a joint yen stablecoin pilot by major banks [4] - The new stablecoin will complement Startale's existing USDSC, providing a regulated yen leg for foreign exchange, settlement, and tokenized asset flows, with a launch targeted for Q2 2026 pending regulatory approvals [5]