龙玥，华尔街见闻 近期，指数编制巨头MSCI发布了一份咨询文件，提议将"数字资产财库公司"从其全球可投资市场指数 中剔除。根据MSCI的定义，这类公司指数字资产持有量超过总资产50%的企业，或那些自称为数字资 产财库、主要以增持比特币为目的融资的公司。 MSCI在文件中明确质疑这些公司是否"表现出类似投资基金的特征"，而投资基金通常被排除在股票基 准指数之外。这也是这场争论的核心：这些"数字资产财库公司"究竟是创新的运营实体，还是披着公司 外衣的投资基金？ 此举立即引发了市场的连锁反应。华尔街大行摩根大通发布分析报告警告称，若MicroStrategy被剔 除，将对其估值构成"巨大压力"。该行分析师表示，在MicroStrategy当时约590亿美元的市值中，约有 90亿美元由追踪各大指数的被动投资工具持有。 该行估算，仅MSCI的行动就可能触发约28亿美元的被动基金强制卖出；如果罗素等其他指数提供商跟 进，总抛售额可能高达88亿美元。 另一家拥有107年历史的投资银行TD Cowen也表示，预计MSCI最终会将其指数中的所有此类"数字资产 财库公司"剔除。 "币圈"强烈抵制，甚至呼吁做空摩根大通 MSCI的 ...

受美联储降息预期降温、新一轮避险情绪和科技股惨遭抛售拖累，比特币周四跌破了10万美元大关，加剧了自10月初以来导致市值蒸发超 过4500亿美元的颓势。 行情数据显示，这一全球最大加密货币隔夜一度暴跌约4%至98000美元关口下方。从技术面看，比特币自上月125000美元上方的历史高 位已跌去了逾20%，迈入了传统的熊市区域。 那些曾被视为可靠的币圈支撑力量——大型投资基金、ETF配置机构及企业比特币金库也纷纷撤资，动摇了今年比特币涨势的关键支柱，并 触发市场进入了新的脆弱阶段。 如下图所示，比特币年内迄今的涨幅已收窄至了不到7%，这令这个本来币圈屡创新高的年份，似乎有可能变为"虎头蛇尾"的一年。 | | Bitcoin Returns: 2010 - 2025 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Year | Year Start Year End | | % Change | | 2010 | 0.003 | 0.30 | 9900% | | 2011 | 0.30 | 4.72 | 1473% | | 2012 | 4.72 | 13.51 | 186% | | 2013 ...

在今年的大部分时间里，机构投资者都是比特币合法性和价格的支柱。彭博社数据显示，现货比特币 ETF整体吸引了超过250亿美元的资金流入，将其总资产推高至约1690亿美元。它们稳定的资金配置， 帮助将比特币重新塑造为一种投资组合的多元化工具——一种对冲通胀、货币贬值和政治混乱的工具。 然而，这个向来有些站不住脚的说法如今再次变得不堪一击，让市场暴露在一个更隐蔽、但同样具有破 坏性的风险之下：大户的离场观望。 10X Research的首席执行官、前Millennium Management LLC投资组合经理Markus Thielen认为，市场疲 态的迹象日益增多。他指出，在比特币今年仅录得不尽人意的10%涨幅（远逊于黄金或科技股的表现） 之后，一些专业投资者正在失去耐心。Thielen认为，如果价格再次开始下跌，风险顾问很可能会建议 机构客户在年底前减仓。 他表示："到了某个节点，风险经理可能会介入说，'你需要清仓或减仓'。比特币存在继续表现不佳的 风险，因为人们需要重新平衡他们的投资组合。当你给投资者发送报表时，你的持仓里可能需要更多的 英伟达股票，而不是比特币。" 彭博社数据显示，过去一个月，现货比特币E ...

在经历上个月市值蒸发数千亿美元的重挫后，比特币正艰难地寻求反弹，但脆弱的市场情绪和持续的抛 压，正让任何复苏的尝试都举步维艰。 尽管华盛顿结束政府关门的利好消息提振了传统风险资产，但加密货币市场并未迎来期待中的强劲上 涨，凸显出投资者在巨额亏损后的不安情绪仍在蔓延。 这一全球最大的加密货币周一一度短暂突破107,000美元，但很快回落至105,000美元下方。这一乏力的 价格表现，与因美国政府重新开放而上涨的股市和信贷市场形成鲜明对比，表明加密资产的内部动能依 然不足。 关键指标显示动能不足 据彭博社报道，自10月10日因特朗普意外宣布关税而引发创纪录的清算以来，比特币的市值已缩水约 3400亿美元。市场普遍认为，近期的低迷部分源于早期大持有者（即"OG鲸鱼"）在接近年度高点时获 利了结，同时，10月初大规模清算事件留下的阴影也挥之不去。 疲软的迹象在多个关键指标中得到印证。衡量市场情绪和杠杆水平的数据显示，投资者的热情远未恢 复。与此同时，技术图表上的关键阻力位也对价格构成了沉重压制，市场参与者对前景的看法充满分 歧。 一系列数据表明，推动比特币上涨的动力尚未回归。比特币永续期货的未平仓合约总额目前约为68 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin is struggling to rebound after a significant market cap loss of approximately $340 billion since October 10, primarily due to profit-taking by early large holders and the aftermath of a massive liquidation event [1][2][5] - Despite positive news from Washington regarding the end of the government shutdown, the cryptocurrency market has not experienced the expected strong rally, indicating persistent investor anxiety following substantial losses [1][5] Market Indicators - The total open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures is around $68 billion, down from a peak of $94 billion last month, reflecting a significant decline in speculative interest in the derivatives market [2] - The funding rate, which measures the cost of leveraged positions, remains stable, suggesting that traders are not actively increasing their long positions [2] ETF Performance - Bitcoin ETFs, a crucial source of new capital for the market, have shown lackluster performance, with only $1 million in net inflows on a day when the U.S. stock market rose significantly [5] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's price is currently trading below the 200-day moving average, which is seen as a critical threshold for any sustained upward movement [7][10] - Analysts highlight that $103,000 is a key structural support level; a drop below this could lead to further declines towards $86,000 or even $82,000 [10] Market Sentiment - There is a notable divide among market participants regarding the recent price movements, with some viewing the short-term rise as a mere "dead cat bounce," while others see potential signs of a trend reversal [11][12] - Some analysts express cautious optimism, noting that Bitcoin briefly tracked the rise of risk assets, which could indicate a positive sign, while others attribute the recent uptick to structural factors rather than a solid return of fundamental confidence [12]

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government has been shut down for 37 days, surpassing historical records, due to a lack of consensus on the budget between the two parties in Congress [2] - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, noted that since the debt ceiling was raised in July, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by 5% and liquidity has decreased by 8%, with the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) draining funds from the system [2] - The shutdown is expected to create uncertainty in financial markets, leading to increased volatility, particularly in the stock and bond markets [3] Impact on Financial Markets - Government shutdowns typically lead to heightened market uncertainty, causing investors to worry about government efficiency and policy continuity, which increases market volatility [3] - The interruption of federal spending directly affects certain businesses and economic activities, particularly those reliant on government contracts, potentially delaying revenues and impacting stock prices [3] - Long-term shutdowns may affect credit ratings and interest rates, as concerns about U.S. fiscal health could lead to rating adjustments and increased borrowing costs [3] Historical Context - In the 2013 shutdown lasting 16 days, the S&P 500 index rose approximately 3.1%, indicating limited sensitivity to short-term political events [4] - During the 2018-2019 shutdown of 35 days, the S&P 500 initially dropped about 2.7% but later rebounded over 10% as negotiations progressed and economic fundamentals stabilized [5] Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin recently experienced a drop, briefly falling below $100,000 but stabilizing at $103,500, with a noted decline of about 27% over the past month [6] - The market is currently under liquidity pressure due to the government shutdown, and it remains uncertain when policy changes will occur [6] - Recent data shows that Bitcoin has dropped about 10% in the past week, with nearly $1 billion flowing out of spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating weak market sentiment [7] - Long-term holders have sold over 827,000 BTC, amounting to approximately $86 billion, marking the largest monthly sell-off since July [7]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has erased all gains from the summer, dropping 7.4% to $96,794, marking the first time it has fallen below $100,000 since June, and down over 20% from its all-time high a month ago [1] - The decline in Bitcoin is consistent with a broader market downturn, as Ethereum and various altcoins also experienced significant drops, with some tokens seeing year-to-date declines exceeding 50% [1] - A major liquidation event in October wiped out billions in long positions, leading to a cautious trading environment where Bitcoin's year-to-date gain remains below 10%, underperforming compared to the stock market [1] Group 1 - The total liquidation amount on Tuesday was a moderate $1 billion, significantly lower than the approximately $19 billion record set on October 10 [5] - Options traders have established large hedge positions against further declines, with high demand for put options with strike prices of $80,000 expiring in late November [5] - Bitcoin's decline is correlated with a pullback in high-valuation tech stocks, indicating a synchronization of speculative sentiment between Bitcoin and the stock market [5] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency market is facing additional challenges, including outflows from exchange-traded funds and concerns over potential sell-offs by digital asset treasury companies [5] - Current trends show net negative flows for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, suggesting a cooling investor demand following earlier strong gains this year [5][8] - The severity of the October liquidation has led traders to adopt a tactical short-term trading approach rather than maintaining firm directional bets, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [8]

Market Overview - Crypto markets are experiencing a positive start, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising nearly 4% to $117,400, marking a strong quarter historically for the sector [1] - Altcoins such as Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) have gained 5%-7% in the past 24 hours, outperforming Bitcoin [4] Economic Indicators - Private payrolls in September saw a decline of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop in 2.5 years, with previous gains revised to a loss of 3,000 jobs [2] - The ISM September Manufacturing PMI Survey reported a stable index at 49.1, while the Prices Paid index decreased to 61.9 from 63.7 in August, indicating easing inflation [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market participants anticipate further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming October meeting, an increase from 92% the previous week [4] - The expectation of interest rate easing is seen as a macro tailwind for the crypto market, potentially signaling the start of a bull market [6] Investment Trends - September was a surprisingly strong month for Bitcoin, gaining about 6%, with significant inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs totaling $950 million in the last two days of the month [5] - The upcoming quarter is expected to initiate an "alt-season," shifting investor focus from major cryptocurrencies to smaller, more volatile tokens [7]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded to over $114,000, partially recovering from last week's decline, amidst significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, raising questions about the sustainability of this rally [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of approximately $900 million last week, causing concern among traders, especially as long-term holders sold 3.4 million BTC [3] - About 90% of Bitcoin transfers during the week were profitable, indicating a potential cooling phase in the market [3] - The U.S. government shutdown risk has temporarily eased, which may help reduce market risk aversion and support Bitcoin price increases [2][6] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - A joint roundtable by the SEC and CFTC is expected to provide clearer guidance on digital asset regulation, which could enhance investor confidence [2][4] - Key figures from major exchanges and financial institutions will participate in the roundtable, indicating a serious approach to regulatory clarity [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. labor market data, including the JOLTS job openings report and non-farm payroll report, is anticipated to influence Bitcoin prices [7] - Weakness in the labor market may drive investors towards safer assets like gold and short-term treasuries [7] - Optimism regarding a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve plan is contributing to Bitcoin's ability to hold above the $109,000 mark [7][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Factors that could drive Bitcoin to surpass $120,000 include clearer digital asset regulation, the easing of government shutdown risks, and favorable labor market data [9] - The potential for the U.S. Treasury to reassess the value of gold reserves could theoretically release significant credit, although this has been denied by the Treasury Secretary [9]

Core Insights - BlackRock is exploring the possibility of tokenizing exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which could fundamentally change the operation of one of Wall Street's most important investment products [1] - The company has previously seen success in the digital asset space, with its tokenized money market fund BUIDL growing to over $2 billion [1][2] - The tokenization of ETFs may lead to extended trading hours, easier access for overseas investors, and new uses as collateral in crypto networks [1][2] Group 1: Tokenization Technology - Tokenization creates digital versions of traditional assets, allowing them to flow on blockchain systems, potentially enabling 24-hour trading [2] - This technology could facilitate easier access to U.S. financial products for overseas investors and create new collateral uses in crypto networks [2] - BlackRock has been a proactive advocate for digital assets, testing tokenized fund share trading on JPMorgan's Onyx infrastructure [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - Interest in tokenization is rising within the industry, with companies like Franklin Templeton and BlackRock paving the way for this transition [2] - Analysts note that while the market for tokenized assets is still small, BlackRock's exploration indicates mainstream finance is beginning to test blockchain for reconstructing market infrastructure [5] Group 3: Challenges and Regulatory Environment - The transition to tokenized ETFs faces significant obstacles, including the need to coordinate existing clearing systems with blockchain's instantaneous trading capabilities [4] - The regulatory environment is becoming more accommodating, with policymakers showing openness to testing blockchain-based market projects in controlled settings [4] - Nasdaq has requested regulatory approval to allow investors to trade tokenized versions of stocks, marking a significant potential test of blockchain technology in the U.S. stock market [4]