Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guanghui Energy (600256.SH) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 36.441 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 40.72%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.961 billion yuan, down 42.6% year-on-year [5] - The coal business showed significant growth, with production and sales increasing by 64.02% and 52.39% year-on-year, respectively, due to the ramp-up of the Malang coal mine [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.622 yuan per share, totaling 3.976 billion yuan, with a high payout ratio of 134.3%, resulting in a dividend yield of 10.6% based on the closing price [5] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 39.9 billion yuan, 49.6 billion yuan, and 52.3 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.5 billion yuan, 3.6 billion yuan, and 4.4 billion yuan [5] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production of 43.2524 million tons and sales of 47.234 million tons, with a significant increase in the fourth quarter [5] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 367.93 yuan per ton, down 22.55% year-on-year, while the cost was 283.5 yuan per ton, down 8.63% year-on-year [5] - The company’s natural gas business showed stable development, with production of 6.82 billion cubic meters, an increase of 17.85% year-on-year [5] - The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.53 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.67 yuan, respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, with revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.01% year-on-year and down 23.11% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 611 million yuan, up 5.36% year-on-year and up 213.00% quarter-on-quarter. The performance is in line with expectations, and the company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.541 billion, 3.648 billion, and 4.274 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06, 1.52, and 1.78 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 10.1, 7.0, and 6.0 times respectively. The outlook remains positive due to steady demand growth and an optimized supply structure, which is expected to lead to a recovery in long filament profitability [5][6][8] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company produced and sold 3.29 million and 2.50 million tons of long filaments, respectively, with production up 4.9% year-on-year and sales down 3.3%. The overall production and sales rate was 76%. The sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 7.71%, an increase of 1.00 percentage points year-on-year and 4.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The average price difference for polyester long filament POY in Q1 2025 was 1,330 yuan/ton, up 21.1% year-on-year and 8.4% quarter-on-quarter [6][8][10] Financial Forecast - The financial forecast for Tongkun Co., Ltd. includes projected revenues of 94.684 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.541 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 111.4%. The gross margin is projected to be 7.1% in 2025, increasing to 8.7% by 2027 [8][10][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The company reported a slight year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.01% year-on-year and down 23.11% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 611 million yuan, up 5.36% year-on-year and up 213.00% quarter-on-quarter. The performance is generally in line with expectations [5][6] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.54 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 4.27 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06 yuan, 1.52 yuan, and 1.78 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 10.1, 7.0, and 6.0 respectively [5][6] - The report highlights the expectation of gradual recovery in long filament profitability due to steady demand growth and optimized supply structure, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5][6] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's long filament production and sales volumes were 3.29 million tons and 2.50 million tons respectively, with production up 4.9% year-on-year and sales down 3.3%. The overall production and sales rate was 76% [6] - The sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 7.71%, an increase of 1.00 percentage points year-on-year and 4.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The average price difference for polyester long filament POY was 1,330 yuan/ton, up 21.1% year-on-year and 8.4% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The financial forecast indicates a revenue of 94.68 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. The net profit is projected to increase significantly by 111.4% in 2025 [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of Sinopec [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows significant improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with a reduction in losses in the chemical segment year-on-year [7] - The upstream segment's profit has narrowed, while the downstream refining sector has not yet recovered, but the chemical segment has shown a reduction in losses [7] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a projected dividend yield of 5.8% for A shares and 7.2% for H shares after tax [7] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 546 billion, 603 billion, and 655 billion RMB respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 735.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 13.3 billion RMB, down 28% year-on-year but up 119% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The report projects total revenue for 2023 to be 3,212.2 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 3.19% [1] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.45 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.68 for A shares [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 326.48 billion in 2024, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.42%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 37.44% to 724.48 million [1][5] - The company has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Saudi Aramco to explore joint operations in overseas markets, enhancing its global market share and risk resilience [2] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been established, proposing differentiated cash dividend policies based on the company's development stage [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 is reported at 325.11 billion, with a projected increase to 326.48 billion in 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop from 1.16 billion in 2023 to 724.48 million in 2024, reflecting a significant decline of 65.33% and 37.44% respectively [5][11] - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 27.07 billion, down from 28.77 billion in 2023 [5][11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease from 0.11 in 2023 to 0.07 in 2024 [5][11] Industry Outlook - The supply-side reform in the industry is expected to support a relative recovery from the bottom of the cycle, with stricter regulations leading to a decrease in operational rates among local refineries [4] - The company is anticipated to benefit from the improvement in propylene prices due to increased tariffs on U.S. propane, which may enhance the price spread of olefin products [4] Strategic Initiatives - Key projects are progressing, including the production of a 1000-ton α-olefin pilot plant and the successful trial production of a 100,000-ton/year rare earth butadiene rubber facility [2] - The company is actively expanding its international presence and enhancing its product offerings through strategic partnerships and project developments [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guanghui Energy is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][11] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance is under pressure due to increased coal volume but decreased prices, emphasizing the growth potential in coal, oil, and chemical sectors along with high dividends [1][5] - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 36.44 billion yuan, down 40.7% year-on-year, and net profit at 2.96 billion yuan, down 42.6% year-on-year [1][6] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to see a recovery in profits from 2025 onwards, with projected net profits of 3.58 billion yuan in 2025, 4.36 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.54 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20.8%, 22%, and 3.9% respectively [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production volume of 39.83 million tons, an increase of 78.5% year-on-year, while the sales volume reached 43.47 million tons, up 68% year-on-year [1][5] - The average selling price of coal has decreased significantly since Q3 2024, impacting the company's profitability [1][5] - The company plans to continue advancing its new projects in coal, oil, and chemical sectors, which are expected to enhance future growth [1][5] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company distributed a cash dividend of 0.622 yuan per share (before tax) in 2024, with an effective cash dividend of 0.70022 yuan per share, resulting in a current dividend yield of 12.5% based on the stock price as of April 24, 2025 [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates stable profitability and aims to build a "growth + return" type enterprise [1] - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 236.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year [7] - The company is progressing steadily with its projects, enhancing its industrial chain and maintaining robust cash flow while focusing on high dividend payouts to shareholders [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 236.4 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 212.5 billion yuan in 2025, followed by slight increases in subsequent years [1][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 7.04 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.66 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to increase from 1.00 yuan in 2024 to 1.51 yuan in 2027, indicating growth potential [1][8] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.45 yuan per share for 2024, amounting to approximately 3.17 billion yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates stable profitability and aims to build a "growth + return" type enterprise [1] - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 236.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year [7] - The company is progressing steadily with its projects, enhancing its industrial chain and maintaining robust cash flow while focusing on high dividend payouts to shareholders [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 236.4 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 212.5 billion yuan in 2025, followed by slight increases in subsequent years [1][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 7.04 billion yuan in 2024 to 8.02 billion yuan in 2025, and further to 10.66 billion yuan by 2027 [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.00 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.51 yuan by 2027 [1][8] - The company maintains a stable cash flow with a net cash flow from operating activities of 77 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its Q1 2025 performance, with a notable increase in non-recurring net profit by 112.75% compared to Q4 2024, driven by cost reductions and a recovery in product prices [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable refining environment and the gradual exit of marginal refining capacities due to increased fuel oil import tariffs, which will support high-quality development in the refining industry [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 57.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.13% year-on-year [5] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 9.142 billion, 11.395 billion, and 12.324 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.30, 1.62, and 1.75 yuan [5][8] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 10.6% in 2025 to 10.8% in 2026 and 2027, while net margin is expected to rise from 3.7% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 2027 [8][11] Sales and Pricing - In Q1 2025, the sales volumes for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 5.4309 million, 4.1067 million, and 1.3354 million tons respectively, with varying changes in sales prices across segments [6] - The average selling prices for refining products, PTA, and new materials in Q1 2025 were 5,181.99, 4,391.90, and 6,963.22 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase compared to the previous quarter [6] Cost and Debt Management - The company’s average prices for key raw materials such as coal, butanediol, crude oil, and PX in Q1 2025 were 603.72, 7,018.05, 4,056.30, and 6,219.78 yuan per ton, indicating a decrease in coal and crude oil prices [6] - As of Q1 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio stood at 76.55%, with expectations for continued optimization in the future [6][7]

石油石化/炼化及贸易 恒力石化（600346.SH） 炼化景气度回暖，2025Q1 扣非归母净利润环比大增 2025 年 04 月 24 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.57 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.23/12.13 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,095.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,095.99 | | 总股本(亿股) | 70.39 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 70.39 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 10.49 | 股价走势图 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 恒力石化 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《公司具备盈利韧性，未来关注业绩 弹性和高分红—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.4.21 《2024H1 业绩同比高增，新材料产能 逐 步 投 放 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.26 《Q1 业绩同环比高增，看好炼化龙头 盈利弹性与远期成长性—公司信息更 新报告》-2024.4.24 | ...