证券研究报告·行业点评报告·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业点评报告 政策引导+行协牵头，保险业布局康养领域进 程再加速 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 执业证书：S0600524120004 caok@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24% 29% 34% 39% 44% 2025/1/23 2025/5/24 2025/9/22 2026/1/21 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：长端利率趋势性下行；新单增长不及预期。 2026 年 01 月 23 日 相关研究 《低利率时代的重逢——中国分红险 发展的前世今生》 2025-12-30 《保险行业 11 月保费：产寿单月保费 增速均有改善，继续看好寿险开门红 表现》 2025-12-27 东吴证券研究所 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 【事件】1 月 22 日保险公司在康养领域消息频现，我们预计"保险+康 养"模式发展进一步加速。 ◼ 行业层面：协会 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Life Insurance Company has faced multiple penalties from the Yantai Regulatory Bureau of the National Financial Supervision Administration due to various violations by its branches in Yantai [2][3]. Group 1: Penalties and Violations - Xinhua Life Insurance's Longkou branch was fined 10,000 yuan for instigating and inducing insurance agents to engage in activities that violate their duty of honesty, with the branch manager Gao Fanjun receiving a warning and a fine of 10,000 yuan [1][3]. - The Yantai Central branch was fined 124,700 yuan for preparing false financial documents, with the deputy general manager Wang Shina receiving a warning and a fine of 17,400 yuan [1][3]. - The Penglai branch was fined 52,100 yuan for providing benefits outside the insurance contract to policyholders, with the branch manager Sun Yiqing receiving a warning and a fine of 10,900 yuan [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - Ping An is maintained as a top pick in the sector with a target price raised to HK$90 based on SOTP valuation, reflecting adjustments in FY26E forecasts and net earnings growth estimates for FY25-27E [1] Group OPAT and NPAT Forecasts - Group OPAT is estimated to grow by 12% YoY in FY25E to RMB136 billion, with a significant acceleration of approximately 46% YoY in 4Q25 [1] - Group NPAT is forecasted to increase by 5.1% YoY in FY25E to RMB133 billion, although non-operating items may decline in 4Q due to weaker equity market performance and rising bond yields [1] Bancassurance Growth - Bancassurance is expected to drive FY26E NBV growth by 18%, with Ping An expanding its proprietary channels and increasing outlet penetration [2] - The insurer's total outlets in China are around 200,000, with a significant portion potentially catering to high-net-worth clients, indicating room for further expansion [2] Investment Strategy and Market Exposure - Ping An increased its exposure to growth stocks in 3Q25, with total equity exposure reaching 18.3% of total investment assets by 1H25, which is expected to grow further [3] - The investment contribution to net earnings in 4Q25 is anticipated to be weaker due to corrections in growth stocks, as indicated by the performance of relevant indices [3] Target Price and Valuation - The target price of HK$90 is derived using a SOTP valuation approach, with specific multipliers applied to different segments of the business, including life insurance and asset management [3] - The new target price implies a valuation of 0.9x FY26E P/EV and 1.24x FY26E P/B, reflecting the company's strong position in the life insurance sector [3]

Market Overview - Stocks are mixed as the market approaches the closing bell, with the Dow down about 300 points or 0.6% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite shows gains of about 0.33% [1] - The Russell 2000 index is down the most at 1.74%, indicating significant volatility in small and mid-cap stocks [1] - The bond market remains stable, with the 10-year Treasury yield near break-even and the 30-year yield down one basis point to 4.84% [1] Sector Performance - Energy stocks are up 0.9%, driven by rising prices in natural gas and crude oil due to weather conditions [1] - Financials, industrials, utilities, and healthcare sectors are experiencing declines, with financials down about 1.3% [1] - Gold prices are nearing $5,000 per ounce, with silver also seeing significant gains, indicating a strong performance in precious metals [1] Company-Specific Insights - Intel's stock is under pressure due to supply constraints and disappointing quarterly results, despite previous optimism about demand for server cycles [2] - Nvidia is positioned well with strong demand for AI chips, and recent reports suggest potential easing of restrictions for sales in China, which could boost revenues [2] - Live Nation is expected to see a recovery in adjusted operating income growth, with concert bookings on track for the year, despite a recent decline in stock price [3] Political and Regulatory Environment - Health insurers faced scrutiny in Congress over rising premiums and executive pay, with bipartisan concerns emerging about the impact of vertically integrated companies on consumers [4][5] - Mark Cuban's call for divestiture of non-core assets by large health insurers highlights growing frustration with the current healthcare system [6][7] - Legislative efforts to address these issues may face challenges, with limited action expected in the near term due to political dynamics [8][9] Economic Impact of Weather - A significant winter storm is expected to impact various sectors, with energy and commodities likely to benefit from increased demand [20] - Airlines are preparing for operational disruptions due to cancellations and delays, which could affect earnings guidance in the near term [21][25] - Utilities and insurance companies may face increased costs related to storm damage and restoration efforts, impacting their financial outlooks [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - Investor Jim Chanos has criticized the collaboration between Lemonade Inc. and Tesla Inc., particularly the offering of reduced insurance rates for Tesla vehicles engaged in Full Self-Driving (FSD) mode, suggesting that this partnership is misleading [1][2][3]. Group 1: Collaboration Details - Lemonade announced a partnership with Tesla to provide a 50% reduction in insurance rates for vehicles using FSD, citing data that indicates Teslas in FSD mode are involved in significantly fewer accidents [3]. - Chanos argues that true FSD will shift liability insurance from drivers to manufacturers, implying that driver insurance may become unnecessary [2][3]. Group 2: Safety Concerns - There are ongoing concerns regarding the safety of Tesla's autonomous driving systems, with the company facing multiple lawsuits alleging that these systems have caused fatalities [4]. - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has initiated a probe into Tesla's autonomous driving system following reports of incidents involving vehicles in FSD mode, raising further questions about the safety and reliability of these technologies [5].

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Core Insights - Sunflower Bank has launched Sunflower Insurance Solutions Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary aimed at providing insurance and wealth planning strategies for businesses and high-net-worth individuals [1][2] Company Overview - Sunflower Bank, N.A. has $8.5 billion in assets as of September 30, 2025, and operates 71 licensed depository branches across seven states, with mortgage capabilities in 44 states [5] New Service Offering - Sunflower Insurance Solutions will offer specialized programs for both corporate and personal needs, including risk management, liquidity planning, and tax-efficient wealth transfer [1][8] - The subsidiary has entered a strategic partnership with Lion Street, enhancing its capabilities through access to Lion Street's network and resources [2][3] Leadership and Expertise - Catherine Runge has been appointed as the Director of Insurance Strategies for Sunflower Insurance Solutions, bringing over 20 years of expertise to the role [2] - Bob Carter, Founder and CEO of Lion Street, expressed enthusiasm for the collaboration, highlighting the alignment of client-centered strategies between the two organizations [3]

Core Insights - Farm Bureau Financial Services (FBFS) is recognized for strong customer satisfaction, fair pricing, and good repair ratings, with an overall rating of 4.4 out of 5 stars [1] - The average monthly cost for full coverage is $151, which is competitive compared to national averages [11][28] - FBFS has a low NAIC complaint ratio of 0.137, significantly below the national benchmark of 1.082, indicating high customer satisfaction [3] Pricing and Coverage - Farm Bureau offers full coverage at an average cost of $151 per month and basic liability insurance at $90 per month, both below national averages [11][15][28] - Coverage options vary by state, with many branches offering six core types of car insurance along with additional options [8][12] - Specific coverage features such as accident forgiveness and emergency roadside assistance depend on the state chapter [9][10] Customer Satisfaction and Ratings - Several Farm Bureau chapters rank above average in customer satisfaction according to J.D. Power, particularly in regions like Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas [6] - Farm Bureau's auto insurance consistently receives strong CRASH Network repair scores and low complaint ratios, contributing to its reputation for good customer service [22] Discounts and Additional Features - Farm Bureau offers a variety of discounts, including a members choice bundling discount, claim-free discount, good student discount, and multi-car discount [17] - An annual "SuperCheck" is performed to identify additional discounts that customers may qualify for [16] Claims Process - The claims process may vary by chapter, but generally includes steps such as reviewing coverage, gathering information, and reporting the claim through various channels [18][24] - Average processing times for claims can range from 2 days for roadside assistance to 7 business days for total loss claims [25]

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript on China Insurance Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Insurance** industry, specifically the **life insurance** and **property & casualty (P&C)** sectors, with an outlook for 2026E highlighting significant opportunities and challenges ahead [1][3]. Key Insights Life Insurance Sector - The life insurance sector is expected to experience **historic opportunities** due to a **wealth reallocation** as retail investors seek higher reinvestment yields from maturing bank deposits [3]. - **Margin stability** is anticipated, as a pricing rate reduction in September 2025 may counterbalance margin erosion from a shift towards participating policies [3]. - Preference is given to industry leaders such as **China Life** and **Ping An**, with expectations of a **K-shaped growth divergence** between larger and smaller insurers amid ongoing regulatory tightening [3]. Property & Casualty (P&C) Sector - The P&C sector is projected to achieve **4% industry premium growth**, with potential for further **cost of risk (CoR) enhancements** due to favorable regulatory conditions [3]. - Key factors contributing to this growth include: - **Expense rationalization** in non-auto lines - Strengthened regulatory oversight on auto insurance expense management - Gradual relaxation of pricing policies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) [3]. - **PICC P&C** is identified as the top player likely to deliver superior results, although the P&C sector is generally less favored in a bullish equity market [3]. Companies Mentioned - **China Life Insurance** (2628.HK; HK$31.72; 601628.SS; Rmb46.9) - **China Pacific Insurance** (2601.HK; HK$37.92; 601601.SS; Rmb43.1) - **China Taiping Insurance** (0966.HK; HK$23.0) - **New China Life** (1336.HK; HK$58.95; 601336.SS; Rmb77.83) - **PICC P&C** (2328.HK; HK$15.74) - **Ping An Insurance** (2318.HK; HK$66.9; 601318.SS; Rmb64.8) [4][5]. Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the **regulatory environment** as a significant factor influencing both sectors, with ongoing oversight expected to shape market dynamics [3]. - The analysis suggests that investors should consider the **K-shaped growth** trend when making investment decisions, as larger firms may outperform smaller competitors due to their ability to adapt to regulatory changes [3]. - The report also highlights potential **conflicts of interest** due to Citigroup's business relationships with the companies mentioned, advising investors to take this into account when evaluating the report [4][9][10].

Summary of the Japan Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Japanese equity market amid rising long-term interest rates, particularly the implications for stock selection and investment strategies in Japan [1][6][15]. Core Insights - **Negative Real Interest Rates**: Despite rising long-term interest rates, Japan's real interest rates remain negative, which is supportive of equity valuations [6][15][16]. - **Equity Valuations**: Japanese equities are considered inexpensive in a global context, with a higher yield spread compared to the US and Europe, indicating that rising rates do not necessarily lead to a bearish outlook for Japanese stocks [17][36]. - **Leverage Metrics**: Leverage-related metrics are not expected to be significant drivers of stock selection in the current environment, with a shift towards value factors becoming more effective [6][22][32]. Market Dynamics - **Long-Term Interest Rates**: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces challenges with rising yields, particularly in the super-long segment of the Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) market, which has seen a lack of buyers and increased selling pressure [7][8][11]. - **Fiscal Concerns**: There are concerns regarding fiscal dominance as the government considers consumption tax cuts, which could impact market confidence and bond yields [11][14][35]. - **Investment Strategy**: The current environment suggests that investors should not adopt excessive pessimism towards Japanese equities, as the fundamentals remain supportive [15][36]. Key Data Points - **JGB Yields**: As of January 20, 2026, 10-year JGB yields exceeded 2.3%, marking a significant rise [38]. - **Dividend Yields**: For over 20 years, long-term yields have remained below dividend yields, but recent trends show a slight inversion, indicating changing market dynamics [39][41]. - **Value Factor Performance**: A 1% increase in Japanese long-term rates is estimated to raise composite value factor returns by 23.83%, significantly higher than the impact of US long-term rates [33][62]. Additional Considerations - **Market Liquidity**: The lack of buyers in the super-long JGB market has led to a self-reinforcing negative cycle, raising concerns about fiscal stability and market liquidity [8][10]. - **Equity Growth Expectations**: In rising rate environments, companies with higher leverage may outperform due to enhanced growth expectations, countering the typical profit pressure from increased interest expenses [22][25][28]. - **Inflation Dynamics**: Historical data suggests that moderate inflation levels are beneficial for equities, indicating potential for improved returns if Japan transitions from deflation to a stable inflationary environment [57]. Conclusion - The Japanese equity market is positioned to navigate rising long-term interest rates without significant adverse effects, supported by negative real interest rates and attractive equity valuations. Investors are encouraged to focus on value factors and remain optimistic about the potential for growth in the Japanese market [15][36].