Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [2][3] Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, with stronger policies expected next year to help stabilize market expectations [2][3] - New housing transaction volumes in major cities showed mixed results, with a 7.21% decrease week-on-week and a 33.3% decrease year-on-year for the week ending December 11, 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the cumulative transaction area for new homes in 30 cities from December 1 to 11, 2025, was 3 million square meters, reflecting a 38.5% increase compared to the same period in November 2025, but a 31% decrease year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - New home transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.97 million square meters for the week ending December 11, 2025, down 7.21% week-on-week and down 33.3% year-on-year [3] - First-tier cities saw a transaction area of 470,000 square meters, down 13.6% week-on-week and down 44% year-on-year [3] - Second-tier cities recorded a transaction area of 1.12 million square meters, down 8.48% week-on-week and down 22% year-on-year [3] - Third-tier cities experienced a transaction area of 370,000 square meters, up 7.37% week-on-week but down 43.7% year-on-year [3] Land Transactions - The land supply area was 2,426 million square meters, with a transaction area of 2,741 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sale ratio of 0.89 [3] - The total land transfer amount was 83.8 billion yuan, with a cumulative land supply area of 87,524 million square meters for the year, down 13% year-on-year [3] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities increased to 24.54 months, up 6.64% month-on-month and down 12.09% year-on-year [3] - The report indicates that the second-hand housing transaction volume in 24 cities increased by 2.67% week-on-week but decreased by 33.97% year-on-year for the week ending December 11, 2025 [3]

Group 1: Company Insights - The report highlights Huafeng Technology (688629) as a key player in the connector industry, focusing on defense, communication, and industrial sectors, with significant advantages in high-speed backplane connectors [4] - The company has achieved mass production of 112G connectors and is leading in the 224G segment, with deep partnerships with Huawei and expansion into other major manufacturers and internet companies [4] - Revenue projections for Huafeng Technology are set at 2,364 million, 3,838 million, and 5,182 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating growth rates of 116.52%, 62.33%, and 35.03% [4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The real estate industry is expected to continue bottoming out in 2026, with investment strategies focusing on "light assets" and "good companies," leaning towards defensive positions [5] - The report suggests a cautious outlook on policy expectations for 2026 compared to 2025, emphasizing high-margin, high-cash, and high-dividend stable targets [5] - The macroeconomic report indicates that China's high trade surplus is unsustainable in the long term, with policies aimed at promoting balanced trade [6]

本次会议将去年底提出的五个"必须统筹"改为新五个"必须"。 明年预算赤字率或继续维持在4%左右，但新增政府债务规模（包括赤字、专项债和特别国债）或超过 今年11.86万亿元的水平。 关于适度宽松的货币政策，会议强调把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵 活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。人民银行主要负责人在会后接受媒体采访时表示，央行将继续实 施好适度宽松的货币政策，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机，为经济稳定增长和金融市场稳定运行 创造良好货币金融环境。由此可见，货币政策的支持性立场不会改变，但期待大幅宽松是不现实的。明 年重点是要在优化结构性货币政策工具运用、加强与财政政策协同的基础上，进一步畅通货币政策传 导，统筹做好五篇金融"大文章"。会议连续四年提出"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"， 这表明防止汇率超调仍是当前宏观调控的重中之重。 日前召开的中央经济工作会议（下称"会议"）对2026年经济工作做出了重大部署。2026年是"十五五"开 局之年，会议通稿内容与《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下 称"'十五五'规划建议"）一脉相承，是从"写意画 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 新房网签面积同比降幅收窄，二手房网签面积同比降幅扩大 推荐（维持） ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 11 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 11 日） | 新房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 11 日） | 二手房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 11 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | | 样本城市 | -30% | -收窄 | +5 PCT | 样本城市 | -34% | -扩大 | -19 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | -31% | -收窄 | +10 PCT | 一线城市 | -32% | -扩大 | -7 PCT | | （4 城） ...

Group 1: Housing Policy in Shandong - Shandong Province has introduced a new policy to support housing "old for new" exchanges, aiming to stabilize the real estate market and activate housing consumption potential [1] - The policy framework includes 15 specific measures, enhancing the efficiency of housing exchanges through three models: "selling old for new," "collecting old for new," and "demolishing old for new" [1] - The initiative is expected to shorten transaction cycles and alleviate financial pressures for homebuyers, promoting healthy housing consumption [1] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence Development - The Shandong Provincial Government has released an action plan targeting the high-quality development of the artificial intelligence industry, with a goal to exceed 200 billion yuan in core industry scale by 2027, achieving an annual growth rate of over 30% [2] - The plan focuses on key areas such as big data, intelligent hardware, and services, implementing five major actions to build a comprehensive AI industry ecosystem [2] - This policy aims to complete the top-level design for Shandong's AI industry, facilitating the formation of a full-chain AI industry from computing power to applications [2] Group 3: Investment Attraction Measures - Shandong Province has launched a "combination punch" strategy for investment attraction, introducing an encouragement list and a service coordination mechanism to enhance the investment environment [3] - The encouragement list includes ten specific measures focusing on differentiated competition and industry chain investment, while the coordination mechanism aims to streamline project implementation [3] - Together, these initiatives create a modern investment attraction system covering the entire process from attraction to service and implementation [3] Group 4: Elderly Care Reform - The Shandong Provincial Government has issued an implementation opinion to deepen the reform and development of elderly care services, proposing 15 reform measures [5] - By 2029, the goal is to establish a tiered, inclusive, and sustainable elderly care service network, with a target of 65% of institutions being supportive and inclusive [5] - The plan addresses the growing elderly population in Shandong, focusing on integrating medical and elderly care services [5] Group 5: Archaeological Discoveries - Recent archaeological findings in Jinan have pushed the city's history back by approximately 1500 years, revealing significant artifacts from various cultural periods [6] - The discoveries include city walls, wells, and burial sites, with the most notable being the walls from the Longshan culture, dated to around 4200 years ago [6] - These findings are part of a pre-construction archaeological effort for the Jinan Metro Line 6 [6]

Group 1 - The 2025-2026 China Economic Annual Conference emphasized the need to promote synchronized growth of residents' income and the economy, implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and introduce incremental policies as needed [2] - Enjie Co., a leading separator manufacturer, announced plans to acquire 100% of Zhongke Hualian to extend its upstream supply chain and enhance its collaborative advantages in "equipment + materials" [2] - Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang terminated their major asset restructuring due to market environment changes, with 341 institutions quickly conducting research on the implications of this decision [2] Group 2 - Vanke's proposal for extending its medium-term notes was rejected, but it has a 5-day grace period to repay without defaulting [3] - Several companies, including CIMC and China Shipbuilding, reported full order books extending to 2026-2028, driven by industry prosperity and capacity release [3] - Gold prices have surged by 60% this year, while silver has more than doubled; however, recent trends show a divergence in their performance, with institutions favoring gold [3] Group 3 - Moer Technology plans to invest up to 7.5 billion yuan of idle funds in wealth management to enhance capital efficiency, despite ongoing debates about its valuation [4] - Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair, with support from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, amid concerns about maintaining the Fed's independence [4] - Longsheng Technology announced a 350 million yuan investment to enhance its robotics sector, while Xiaomi has seen significant net buying from southbound funds [4]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference has set the economic policy direction for 2026, emphasizing high-quality development rather than aggressive growth [3][4] - The meeting aligns with the previous Politburo meeting, providing more specific execution details while maintaining a cautious approach to economic expectations [3][4] - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the policy signals, with some sectors benefiting while others may face challenges [3][4] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment is prioritized to "stop the decline and stabilize," focusing on quality over quantity, with an emphasis on projects that align with industrial upgrades and local needs [4] - The conference highlights the need for a new energy system to support emerging industries, particularly in artificial intelligence, indicating potential growth in the new energy sector [4] - The real estate sector received limited attention, with policies expected to be more about stabilizing the market rather than aggressive support, leading to potential short-term pressures on real estate stocks [4]

财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安12月12日主持召开党组会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，研究财政 部门贯彻落实工作。会议指出，按照中央经济工作会议部署安排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效 能。财政部门要准确把握明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支 出总量，提高政策精准性和有效性。用好用足各类政府债券资金，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两 重"建设、"两新"工作。 本周末影响市场的重要资讯有：三部门发文更大力度提振消费；摩尔线程回应拿75亿募投资金理财；万 科20亿债券展期三项议案，均未能获得通过；茅台经销渠道年内计划外配额停发，明年非标产品减量； 史上最大IPO来袭，马斯克或成首位万亿美元富翁；特朗普"点名"美联储新主席人选；芯原股份终止购 买芯来智融97%股权；知情人士回应豆包手机被曝被约谈消息不实；英伟达将于下周举办一场闭门峰 会，旨在破解AI时代日益严峻的电力短缺困局等。 【宏观及市场要闻】 三部门发文：更大力度提振消费 党中央、国务院高度重视提振消费，近日召开的中央经济工作会议明确 ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed divergence this week with a cooling risk appetite; the Dow Jones increased by 1.05% while the Nasdaq fell by 1.62%, indicating a shift of funds away from overvalued growth stocks [1] - European stocks remained weak, while Asian markets, particularly in China, Japan, and South Korea, saw gains; Hong Kong stocks slightly declined by 0.42% [1] - In the commodity sector, oil prices decreased, while gold and copper prices strengthened [1] A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market exhibited structural fluctuations, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.74% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 1.72%, showcasing resilience in the technology growth sector; however, the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index experienced slight declines [1] - Market turnover shrank, leading to a focus on small and mid-cap growth sectors amid a stock game [1] Sector Performance - Industry performance showed increasing divergence, with sectors such as telecommunications, military, and electronics leading gains driven by policy support; the telecommunications sector saw a rise of 6.27% [1] - Conversely, cyclical sectors like coal, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate experienced notable pullbacks [1] Policy Environment - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for "seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency," emphasizing support for technological innovation and new productive forces, and mentioned the flexible use of interest rate cuts [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve also reinforced global liquidity easing [1] Outlook - Looking ahead to next week, the structural market trend in A-shares is expected to continue, supported by internal policy expectations and external liquidity conditions; the technology growth theme is likely to remain dominant, with continued attention on telecommunications, electronics, semiconductors, and military sectors [1] - Hong Kong stocks may benefit from improved liquidity and valuation advantages, with a potential recovery in technology and financial sectors [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to focus on sectors with clear industrial trends and strong policy support, such as AI computing power, domestic substitution, and high-end manufacturing, while avoiding chasing high valuations and emphasizing strategic positioning during pullbacks [1]

Group 1 - In 2025, China's economy faced significant challenges but showed resilience, with a focus on domestic demand and building a strong domestic market as highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference [1][16] - The total value of China's goods trade import and export reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with a trade surplus exceeding 1 trillion USD for the first time [1][3] - Private enterprises have become the mainstay of foreign trade, with their import and export value reaching 23.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, accounting for 57.1% of China's total foreign trade [7][9] Group 2 - The export growth of private enterprises outpaced that of state-owned and foreign enterprises, indicating their crucial role in driving trade growth [9] - Despite a decline in exports to the US by 18.9%, exports to ASEAN and the EU increased significantly, compensating for the drop [3][5] - The overall import growth was sluggish at 0.2%, reflecting weak domestic demand, which the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized needs to be addressed [10][20] Group 3 - The Central Economic Work Conference identified the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand as a major challenge, necessitating a focus on balancing supply and demand [20][22] - The government plans to implement a "rural and urban residents' income increase plan" to enhance consumer purchasing power, indicating a shift towards a more inclusive economic strategy [36][42] - The emphasis on quality over quantity in production is crucial for addressing the current economic challenges, with a focus on enhancing the supply of high-quality goods and services [29][31] Group 4 - The real estate market's stability is vital for consumer confidence, with measures proposed to stabilize the market and support affordable housing [49][51] - The government aims to shift fiscal spending from traditional infrastructure to social services like education and healthcare, which could enhance consumer spending capacity [47][46] - The Central Economic Work Conference set a policy direction of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "improving quality and efficiency," indicating a focus on sustainable economic growth [51]