Core Viewpoint - The current geopolitical tensions are dominating global market pricing, with a focus on inflation-driven sectors, overseas expansion, and technology growth despite high interest rates negatively impacting non-yielding assets like gold [1][3]. Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. is increasing military presence in the Middle East, leading to a significant drop in gold prices, which fell by 10.49% to $4,491.67 per ounce, marking the largest weekly decline since March 1983 [3]. - High interest rates and rising oil prices are contributing to inflationary pressures, which in turn are affecting gold prices negatively as investors shift towards dollar-denominated assets [3]. Equity Market Insights - CITIC Securities emphasizes limited valuation recovery in A-shares, suggesting a focus on sectors with pricing power such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy, while also increasing exposure to undervalued sectors like insurance and brokerage [5]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) notes that currency appreciation does not guarantee stock market gains, highlighting historical instances where currency strength did not correlate with stock performance [6]. - Franklin Templeton identifies three main investment lines under current geopolitical tensions: inflation-driven sectors (metals, coal, chemicals, agricultural products), overseas expansion (power and machinery), and technology growth (AI infrastructure and embodied intelligence) [7]. Industry Research - Invesco highlights the long-term value of Hong Kong's tech sector, noting that current valuations are below the 20th percentile of the past five years, with expected EPS growth exceeding 40% by 2026 [11]. - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on leading oil and gas companies due to a projected supply gap of 2 million barrels per day and an upward adjustment of Brent crude oil price forecasts to $90 per barrel by 2026 [12]. - China Europe Fund indicates that the energy storage industry is entering a golden development phase, driven by increased demand for renewable energy and AI, with investment opportunities in battery and system integration sectors [13]. Macro and Fixed Income - HSBC Jintrust Fund suggests that the current geopolitical conflicts are increasing inflationary pressures, but the long-term outlook for the bond market remains neutral, with opportunities in medium to short-term credit bonds [19]. - Huaan Fund emphasizes the importance of bonds as a foundational asset in a low-interest environment, advocating for a refined investment framework that incorporates macro analysis and AI tools [20]. - Bosera Fund believes that the recent rise in oil prices will have a limited impact on the domestic bond market, maintaining a positive outlook for bond investments [21]. Asset Allocation - Zhonggeng Fund advises constructing resilient investment portfolios in light of market volatility, suggesting a focus on low-valuation value stocks and monitoring signals for style shifts during the upcoming earnings season [23].

Group 1 - Market sentiment indicators show a weakening trend, with the sentiment index at 1.7 as of March 20, up from 1.55 the previous week, indicating a neutral model perspective [3][9] - The price-volume consistency indicator has rapidly declined, reflecting a decrease in the correlation between price increases and market attention, suggesting an overall bearish sentiment [13][16] - The total trading volume for the A-share market decreased by 12.49% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 1,409.90 billion yuan, indicating reduced market activity [19][22] Group 2 - The short-term scoring model ranks coal, public utilities, electric equipment, communication, and construction decoration as the top industries, with coal scoring 93.22, the highest among all [45][46] - The model indicates that the market is currently favoring large-cap stocks, with a strong signal suggesting that large-cap style is dominant, while growth and value styles show divergence [56] - The industry crowding indicator shows a correlation coefficient of -0.02 with weekly returns, indicating that most industries performed poorly, with only banking and communication yielding positive returns [48][50]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative analysis[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81]

Group 1 - The core concept of fund advisory is to address the issue where funds make profits, but investors do not [4] - Fund advisory services aim to help investors achieve better returns through professional guidance [5] - The article promotes a free course on fund advisory, offering additional resources like notes and mind maps for efficient learning [5] Group 2 - Fund investment incurs various fees that can impact overall returns, which investors should be aware of [10] - Subscription fees are charged when purchasing funds, typically ranging from 1% to 1.5% for most off-market funds, with discounts available on some platforms [11] - Redemption fees apply when selling funds, with penalties for early redemption (within 7 days) usually around 1.5% for stock funds [13] - Management fees are a primary source of income for fund companies, generally around 1% of the fund size annually [14] - Custody fees are paid to custodial institutions, typically ranging from 0.1% to 0.25% annually, ensuring the safety of fund assets [16]

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market continues to experience volatility, with various indices showing declines, and the valuation of gold has changed, affecting its status as a safe-haven asset. The rise in oil prices is contributing to market fluctuations and inflation concerns, which may delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Group 1: Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market has seen a decline, with the global stock index rating returning to 3.2 stars [2] - A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the CSI All Share Index dropping by 4.1%, returning to a rating of 4.1 stars [3] - The Hong Kong stock market showed smaller fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.74% [4] - European markets also faced volatility, with German stocks down by 4.5% and French and British stocks down over 3% [5] - Year-to-date, A-shares have increased by approximately 1% [6] - U.S. stocks have decreased by 4.4%, and the global stock index has fallen by 3.1% [7] Group 2: Gold and Inflation - International gold prices have dropped by 10%, while silver prices have decreased by 15% [9] - Gold is typically considered a safe-haven asset, but its valuation has reached a high level not seen in the last 20 years, leading to increased volatility [10][11] - The current volatility risk of gold is nearly double that of stocks [13] - As gold's valuation increases, it exhibits characteristics of risk assets, and a future decline in valuation may restore its safe-haven status [14] Group 3: Impact of Oil Prices - The surge in oil prices is a key factor contributing to recent market volatility, leading to increased transportation and raw material costs, which may elevate inflation [15] - This situation could force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its interest rate policies, potentially delaying rate cuts or even discussing rate hikes [15] - Different asset classes, including stocks, gold, and bonds, are under pressure due to these developments, with small-cap and growth stocks facing greater stress [17] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Historical market fluctuations, such as those seen in April of the previous year due to tariff crises, suggest that short-term volatility should not prompt immediate selling of funds [19][20] - The market's short-term fluctuations primarily affect valuation changes, while the underlying companies continue to operate normally and generate income [26][28] - If current investments are not overvalued, patience is advised, allowing time for companies to grow earnings and dividends, which will eventually lead to stock price recovery [30] Group 5: Global Index Investment Options - There are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, with significant assets exceeding trillions of dollars, although such funds are not yet available in mainland China [34] - The company has introduced a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track the global stock market [35] Group 6: New Publication - A new book titled "Personal Pension Investment Guide" has been released, focusing on retirement planning and investment strategies [39] - The book achieved high sales rankings on platforms like JD.com, indicating strong interest in personal pension topics [40]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in gold prices has raised market concerns, with gold futures dropping below $4,500 per ounce, marking the largest weekly decline since March 1983, with a drop of over 10% [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold futures for April delivery fell from $5,061.70 per ounce last Friday to below $4,500, with a weekly decline exceeding 10%, the largest in nearly 43 years [1] - The spot gold price and futures both dropped below $4,500, marking the eighth consecutive day of decline [1] - Silver futures also saw a significant drop, falling from above $80 per ounce to below $70, with a weekly decline of over 14% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices is attributed to conflicting forces: geopolitical tensions typically favoring safe-haven assets and a macroeconomic environment characterized by rising yields and a stronger dollar [3] - Despite some demand for gold due to geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic factors have largely suppressed this demand [4] - Historical data suggests that gold prices may still have a potential decline of around 5% based on past performance during geopolitical conflicts [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from March 16 to March 20, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was -3.11%. Among broad-based ETFs, the median return of ChiNext ETFs was 1.26%, the highest. By sector, the median return of consumer ETFs was -2.16%, the smallest decline. By theme, the median return of bank ETFs was 0.30%, the highest [1][12][16] - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 6.963 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 107.687 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, CSI 300 ETF had the largest net subscription of 6.526 billion yuan. By sector, large financial ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.479 billion yuan. By theme, dividend ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.717 billion yuan [2][27][31] - As of last Friday, the valuation quantiles of ChiNext ETFs were relatively low among broad-based ETFs; by sector, the valuation quantiles of consumer and large financial ETFs were relatively moderate; by sub-theme, the valuation quantiles of liquor and securities ETFs were relatively low. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of CSI 300 and consumer ETFs decreased significantly [3][34][43] - From Monday to Thursday last week, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 47.22 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.78 billion yuan, and the short selling volume decreased from 2.492 billion shares in the previous week to 2.417 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short selling volumes, securities ETFs and STAR Market ETFs had higher average daily margin trading purchases, and CSI 1000 ETFs and CSI 500 ETFs had higher average daily short selling volumes [4][44][50] - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PineBridge ranked top three in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs. This week, 5 ETFs will be issued, including Huaxia CSI All-Share Home Appliance ETF, Penghua Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Automobile Theme ETF, Penghua CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Information Technology Comprehensive ETF, Huabao China Securities Oil and Gas ETF, and Huatai-PineBridge CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme ETF [5][52][55] Summary by Relevant Catalog ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs last week was -3.11%. The median returns of ChiNext, CSI 300, SSE 50, A500, STAR Market, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 ETFs were 1.26%, -2.17%, -2.46%, -3.16%, -3.69%, -5.21%, and -5.78% respectively. The median returns of bond, money market, cross-border, and commodity ETFs were 0.06%, 0.02%, -1.02%, and -7.93% respectively [12] - By sector, the median returns of consumer, large financial, technology, and cyclical sector ETFs among equity ETFs last week were -2.16%, -2.67%, -2.86%, and -5.39% respectively. By theme, the median returns of bank, AI, and pharmaceutical ETFs were 0.30%, -0.20%, and -1.79% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while the median returns of resource, military, and robot ETFs were -10.41%, -6.23%, and -5.99% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [16] ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross-border, and bond ETFs were 2.9042 trillion yuan, 961.9 billion yuan, and 725.3 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and money market ETFs were relatively small, at 332.4 billion yuan and 173.9 billion yuan respectively. Among broad-based ETFs, the scales of CSI 300 and A500 ETFs were relatively large, at 565.4 billion yuan and 228.9 billion yuan respectively, while the scales of STAR Market, CSI 500, ChiNext, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 ETFs were relatively small, at 169.4 billion yuan, 117.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan, and 43.6 billion yuan respectively [20] - By sector, the scale of technology sector ETFs was 490.9 billion yuan as of last Friday, followed by cyclical sector ETFs at 350.8 billion yuan. The scales of consumer and large financial ETFs were relatively small, at 195.5 billion yuan and 189.7 billion yuan respectively. By theme, the scales of chip, securities, and resource ETFs were the highest as of last Friday, at 179.4 billion yuan, 134.7 billion yuan, and 117 billion yuan respectively [25] - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 6.963 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 107.687 billion yuan; money market ETFs had a net subscription of 3.018 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 3.033 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, CSI 300 ETF had the largest net subscription of 6.526 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 6.027 billion yuan; A500 ETF had the largest net redemption of 6.229 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 13.825 billion yuan [27] - By sector, large financial ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.479 billion yuan last week, and its scale decreased by 3.088 billion yuan; cyclical ETFs had the largest net redemption of 19.832 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 51.704 billion yuan. By theme, dividend ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.717 billion yuan last week, and its scale increased by 440 million yuan; resource ETFs had the largest net redemption of 11.516 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 25.163 billion yuan [31] ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 79.52%, 84.31%, 95.87%, 93.89%, 63.09%, and 86.85% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 50.45%, 70.69%, 96.12%, 71.26%, 65.15%, and 86.38% quantiles respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios of STAR Market ETFs are currently at the 74.81% and 76.14% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of CSI 300 ETF decreased significantly [34][35] - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 84.31%, 23.20%, 14.95%, and 90.50% quantiles respectively, and their price-to-book ratios were at the 91.41%, 37.74%, 16.89%, and 77.37% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of consumer ETFs decreased significantly [36] - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings quantiles of dividend, photovoltaic, and military ETFs were relatively high, at 100.00%, 99.75%, and 95.62% respectively; the price-to-book quantiles of dividend, AI, and robot ETFs were relatively high, at 99.67%, 95.71%, and 85.55% respectively [40] ETF Margin Trading - Overall, the margin trading balance and short selling volume of equity ETFs have both increased in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 47.22 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.78 billion yuan, and the short selling volume decreased from 2.492 billion shares in the previous week to 2.417 billion shares [44] - The following table shows the top 10 equity ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases from Monday to Thursday last week, among which securities ETFs and STAR Market ETFs had higher average daily margin trading purchases [45] | Fund Code | Fund Name | Type, Secondary | Average Daily Margin Trading Purchase, Billion Yuan | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 588000.SH | STAR 50 | Scale Index | 4.54 | | 159915.SZ | ChiNext ETF E Fund | Scale Index | 3.71 | | 512880.SH | Securities ETF | Industry Index | 3.61 | | 510500.SH | 500ETF | Scale Index | 2.42 | | 510300.SH | 300ETF | Scale Index | 2.19 | | 512000.SH | Brokerage ETF | Industry Index | 2.16 | | 512170.SH | Medical ETF | Theme Index | 2.11 | | 588200.SH | STAR Chip | Theme Index | 1.55 | | 512480.SH | Semiconductor | Industry Index | 1.47 | | 512010.SH | Pharmaceutical ETF | Industry Index | 1.45 | - The following table shows the top 10 equity ETFs with the highest average daily short selling volumes from Monday to Thursday last week, among which CSI 1000 ETFs and CSI 500 ETFs had higher average daily short selling volumes [50] | Fund Code | Fund Name | Type, Secondary | Average Daily Short Selling Volume, 10,000 Lots | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 510500.SH | 500ETF | Scale Index | 6.85 | | 512100.SH | 1000ETF | Scale Index | 6.05 | | 510300.SH | 300ETF | Scale Index | 4.82 | | 510050.SH | 50ETF | Scale Index | 3.69 | | 588000.SH | STAR 50 | Scale Index | 2.24 | | 512010.SH | Pharmaceutical ETF | Industry Index | 1.41 | | 512880.SH | Securities ETF | Industry Index | 1.31 | | 512800.SH | Bank ETF | Industry Index | 1.29 | | 563360.SH | A500 Fund | Scale Index | 1.25 | | 560010.SH | 1000 Fund | Scale Index | 1.23 | ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub-fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross-border ETFs; E Fund ranked second in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross-border ETFs; Huatai-PineBridge Fund ranked third in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [52] - Last week, 10 ETFs were newly established, including ICBC CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, Southern CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Automobile Industry Theme ETF, Puyin ASSET Management SSE STAR Market Chip Design Theme ETF, Penghua CSI Construction Machinery Theme ETF, Industrial Securities CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, Tianhong ChiNext New Energy ETF, GF CSI Animal Husbandry and Aquaculture Industry ETF, Dongcai CSI Battery Theme ETF, E Fund China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF, and Huaan China Securities Oil and Gas ETF. This week, 5 ETFs will be issued, including Huaxia CSI All-Share Home Appliance ETF, Penghua Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Automobile Theme ETF, Penghua CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Information Technology Comprehensive ETF, Huabao China Securities Oil and Gas ETF, and Huatai-PineBridge CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme ETF [55]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the REITs market is experiencing increased volatility, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics to identify investment opportunities during market fluctuations [1][3][5] - The overall performance of the REITs index declined by 0.13% to 1021.78 during the week of March 13 to March 20, 2026, with notable performances from the affordable housing and transportation sectors [5][6] - As of March 20, 2026, there are 79 listed REITs in the domestic market, with a total market capitalization of 223.9 billion and a circulating market value of 123.8 billion [5][6] Group 2 - The report highlights that the warehouse logistics REITs sector is under pressure due to declining renewal rental expectations, particularly affecting the pricing of projects like JD's Langfang project [6][3] - Market sentiment has been negatively impacted, leading to a significant drop in the warehouse sector, with a 1.93% decline noted during the reporting period [5][6] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor supply and demand trends closely, as trading activity remains subdued with an average daily trading volume of 370 million, the lowest since October 2025 [6][3] Group 3 - The report notes that the affordable housing sector has shown resilience, with a 0.98% increase, contrasting with the overall market trend [5][6] - The report suggests that despite the pressure on the warehouse logistics sector, there are still opportunities for investment as the market stabilizes [1][6] - The report also mentions that the upcoming disclosures of operational data for the highway sector and annual reports for REITs should be closely monitored for further insights [6][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In late Q1, institutional behavior in the bond market has changed. The allocation disk has strong buying power, while funds and wealth management products are relatively weak. The "fixed - income +" products are facing significant redemption pressure, and the bond market strategy focuses on short - term 3 - 5y term spread compression and long - term opportunities after over - decline [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Quarter: Characteristics of Bond Buying by Various Institutions 3.1.1 Overall Bond Buying by Institutions in Q1: Strong Allocation Disk, Weak Funds and Wealth Management - **Allocation Disk**: Large banks significantly increased net purchases of government bonds over 5y. Small and medium - sized banks increased net purchases of 30y government bonds and 20y local bonds. Insurance companies, driven by dividend - paying insurance, included 3 - 5y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds in their top five holdings [13]. - **Trading Disk**: Securities firms' net purchases were in line with seasonality, with a significant reduction in duration, more allocation to 1y interest rates and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and reduction of ultra - long bonds. Funds still focused on credit coupons, increasing the proportion of 1 - 5y credit and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [13]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: In Q1, due to the priority of "deposit rush" tasks in the banking system, the scale growth of bank wealth management was weak, and the net purchases of direct investment and entrusted investment in the secondary market both increased less. In terms of structure, direct investment shortened the term, and entrusted investment increased the exploration of spreads in policy - financial bonds [14]. 3.1.2 By Institution: Insurance Enters the Allocation Window at the End of the Quarter, and Wealth Management Will Follow in Q2 - **Banks**: They have a strong demand for long - term bonds. At the end of the quarter, the pressure to realize profits is not large, and there is still a need for bond allocation in the future [18]. - **Insurance**: The "good start" funds entered the allocation window in March, and the bond - allocation progress is slower than last year, with potential for further allocation. Attention should be paid to the spread compression opportunities of ultra - long local bonds in Q2 [23]. - **Funds**: From the end of Q1 to Q2, there is usually a seasonal recovery in bond - buying power. In Q2, it is conducive to the spread compression of policy - financial bonds [25][28]. - **Wealth Management**: It is expected to see scale growth and a peak season for bond allocation in Q2. Attention can be paid to the spread compression opportunities of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [29]. - **Securities Firms**: They continue to short - sell 30y government bonds and start to buy 50y government bonds [30]. 3.2 "Fixed - Income +" Redemption: How Big Is the Pressure? 3.2.1 Recent "Fixed - Income +" Redemption: Greater Pressure than in November 2025 and January 2026, Close to the Russia - Ukraine Conflict Period - In March, the equity market declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points, leading to a significant increase in the redemption pressure of "fixed - income +" funds. The redemption pressure is stronger than in the previous two rounds and is close to that during the Russia - Ukraine conflict [34][41]. 3.2.2 When Will the Redemption Ease? Pay Attention to the Policy - making Layer's Expectations for Market Stability and the Use of Tools - The central bank recently held a party committee meeting, showing an earlier demand to maintain the stable operation of the stock market. Looking back at the situation after the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022, relevant meetings and policies helped stabilize the market. The central bank has innovated a series of financial policies to support the stable operation of the capital market. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes in the "claims on other financial corporations" item [43][44][47]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy: Focus on 3 - 5y Term Spread Compression in the Short - Term and Seize Opportunities after Over - Decline in the Long - Term 3.3.1 This Week: α Spread Compression for Bonds within 5y - This week, the short - term bonds performed well. The certificate of deposit (CD) yield dropped close to 1.5%, driving the α spread compression of bonds within 5y [48]. 3.3.2 Short - Term: Limited Downward Space for 1y Bonds, Potential for Continuous Compression of 3 - 5y Spreads - The space for 1y short - term leverage to capture interest rate spreads has been extremely compressed, and the focus of bond selection may shift to 3 - 5y bonds. CDs may fluctuate at a low level of 1.5 - 1.55% in the short term, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in funds at the end of the quarter [51][56]. 3.3.3 Long - Term: 10y Government Bonds to Fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.85%, 30y Government Bonds' Sentiment to Stabilize, Pay Attention to Over - Decline Recovery - **10y Government Bonds**: It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range of 1.8% - 1.85%. It is recommended to hold existing assets and gradually increase positions for incremental funds if the yield continues to rise. - **30y Government Bonds**: The core fluctuation range of the 30 - 10y active bond spread may be 40 - 50bp. Traders can pay attention to trading opportunities when the spread widens to over 50bp, and allocators can gradually enter the market when the 30y government bond yield rises above 2.3%. Attention can also be paid to the spread - mining value of 4 - 5y China Development Bank bonds, 10y China Development Bank bonds, and 20y local bonds [57][60][61]. 3.4 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review: CDs Hit a New Low, and the Yield Curve Steepened - **Funding**: The central bank's open - market operations (OMO) had a net injection, and the funding situation was balanced and loose [76]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of government bonds and local bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds and inter - bank CDs decreased [80]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of government bonds and China Development Bank bonds both widened [86].

Group 1 - The China Development Forum 2026 will be held from March 22 to 23 in Beijing, focusing on "The 14th Five-Year Plan of China: High-Quality Development and Co-Creating New Opportunities" [2] - The U.S. has conditionally relaxed oil sanctions on Iran for 30 days, allowing the delivery and sale of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded by March 20 [3] - The Iranian nuclear facility at Natanz was attacked, with Iran claiming it violated international laws, while the U.S. and Israel plan to significantly increase military actions against Iran [4] Group 2 - The Chinese government is encouraging multinational companies to increase investments in China, highlighting the stable and improving economic environment [5] - The insurance industry is experiencing pressure due to solvency regulations, but major players maintain that the impact on the market is limited [4] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is enhancing support for green and low-carbon development among private enterprises [9] Group 3 - The international oil price has surged due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, raising concerns about inflation in the U.S. and potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [14][15] - The World Trade Organization warns that the Middle East conflict could impact global trade through rising oil prices and fertilizer supply shortages [15] - Brazilian President Lula emphasizes the need for strategic oil reserves in response to the ongoing Middle East conflict [17]