策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.02 节后融资资金显著回流 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 投资者微观行为洞察手册·2 月第 3 期 本报告导读： 本期市场成交热度上升，赚钱效应边际上升。从资金层面看，外资资金大幅流入， 偏股公募基金新发行边际下降，ETF 资金大幅流出，外资流入 A 股和港股。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭胤含(分析师) | | | 021-38031691 | | | guoyinhan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524100001 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 策 略 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 观 察 证 券 [Table_Summary] 市场定价状态：市场成交 ...

当国家队退场，ETF进入市 场化能力的淘汰赛 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 刘国辉 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI生图 公募基金的最强增长赛道ETF，突然遭遇逆春寒。 2026年前，市场还沉浸在规模狂飙的热度之中。不仅沪深300ETF稳步增长，中证A500ETF更是在竞争 "期 权标的资格"的驱使下，规模在十多天里大涨上千亿，科创债ETF也整体大涨数百亿元。在2025年末，ETF 规模达到6.02万亿元，同比增长61.4%。 但年后，画风突变。 增持中证A500ETF的"帮忙资金"陆续撤退，汇金等国家队大资金更是巨量减持沪深300ETF、中证500ETF 等宽基。 ETF整体规模突然哑火，截至2月25日，全市场总规模为5.43万亿元，较2025年底减少了6000亿 元，降幅10%。 年前年后，可谓冰火两重天。 近十年以来，ETF规模一直呈现震荡上行态势，近一个月以来的规模大幅调整非常罕见。当然这不意味着 ETF的偃旗息鼓，更多是非常规资金的流出。 此次资金退出也属正常，毕竟现在股市表现较好，市场情绪较高，是救市资金退出的好时机，资金不可能 一直待在股市里，需要为下一次救市积蓄粮草，退出是早晚的事。现在退出还 ...

今日上午，科创芯片ETF（588200）、有色金属ETF（512400）以及电网设备ETF（159326）交投继续保持活跃，半日成交金额均在10亿元以上。跨境ETF 方面，恒生科技ETF（513130）交易金额略有减少，半日成交金额为34.51亿元。 | | | 半日交投活跃行业、主题ETF一览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅 (%) | 总金额(元) | | 588200 | 科创芯片ETF | 2.693 | -1.25 | 18.47亿 | | 512400 | 有色金属ETF | 2.364 | 1.5 | 13.55亿 | | 159326 | 电网设备ETF | 1.945 | –1.67 | 12.80亿 | | 159516 | 半导体设备ETF | 1.893 | -2.77 | 10.06亿 | | 588170 | 科创半导体ETF | 1.852 | -2.73 | 9.51亿 | | 159206 | 卫星ETF | 1.873 | 0.81 | 8.83亿 | | 515880 | 通信ETF | ...

01 2月27日，A股主要指数表现分化，全市场ETF涨多跌少，超过200只ETF涨幅大于1%。 02 今天，金属板块ETF表现强势，出现"刷屏式"上涨。截至收盘，部分金属板块ETF今年以来累计涨幅已超 过30%。主投半导体设备板块的ETF出现明显回调，多只产品跌超2%。 03 前一交易日（2月26日），ETF市场整体呈资金净流出，金额超过290亿元。其中，宽基ETF资金净流出额 居前，多只产品单日资金净流出超10亿元。挂钩恒生科技指数的ETF"吸金"。 金属板块ETF大涨 2月27日，金属板块ETF成为ETF市场表现最为亮眼的品种，几乎占据ETF涨幅榜前25个席位。 截至收盘，跻身ETF涨幅榜前十的金属板块ETF全部涨超4%，主要跟踪中证稀有金属主题指数、中证稀土 产业指数、中证工业有色金属主题指数、中证有色金属矿业主题指数。这10只ETF中，半数以上产品今年 以来涨幅超过20%。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 今日涨幅 (%) | 今年以来涨幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159671.SZ | 稀有金属ETF工银 | 4.96 | 30.11 | | 562800. ...

Core Viewpoint - On February 26, the A-share market experienced a high-level fluctuation phase after continuous gains, with a net outflow of over 23.5 billion yuan from stock ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment as some funds opted to exit the market [1][2]. Summary by Category Market Overview - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.54 trillion yuan on February 26, with a total of 1,344 stock ETFs amounting to 4.13 trillion yuan in total scale [2][6]. - The overall market saw a net outflow of 226.5 billion yuan, marking the second consecutive trading day of net outflows [2]. ETF Performance - On February 26, 80.73 million shares of stock ETFs were redeemed, leading to a net outflow of over 23.5 billion yuan, with 23 ETFs seeing inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [2][3]. - The top three ETFs by net inflow were the Hang Seng Technology ETF (13.15 billion yuan), the Electric Grid Equipment ETF (9.24 billion yuan), and the Securities ETF (8.47 billion yuan) [4][6]. Sector Analysis - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw the highest net inflow of 25.07 billion yuan, while the CSI 500 Index experienced the largest net outflow of 60.08 billion yuan on the same day [3][5]. - From a five-day perspective, the Hang Seng Technology Index-related ETFs attracted over 13.2 billion yuan, and the China Internet 50 Index-related ETFs attracted over 3.7 billion yuan [3]. Fund Management Insights - Leading fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund reported significant inflows in their ETFs, with E Fund's China Internet ETF reaching a scale of 431.35 billion yuan and a net inflow of 4.79 billion yuan [6]. - Huaxia Fund's Electric Grid Equipment ETF and Hang Seng Technology Index ETF also saw substantial inflows, with net inflows of 9.24 billion yuan and 2.44 billion yuan, respectively [6].

Group 1 - The South Korea-China Semiconductor ETF (513310) surged by 9.64%, leading the market on February 26, with a premium rate of 21.10% and a turnover rate exceeding 125% [2][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector continues to rise, driven by a sustained "supply-demand imbalance" in the global storage industry, which is expected to maintain its upward trend until after 2027 [2] - The strong performance of the semiconductor design sector is attributed to Nvidia's impressive earnings report and the ongoing demand for AI computing power, alongside accelerated domestic industry development and supportive policies [2] Group 2 - The short-term bond ETF Hai Futong (511360) recorded a transaction volume exceeding 66 billion yuan, ranking first in the market [3] - Several A500 ETFs, including A500 ETF Fund (512050) and A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan (563360), saw significant trading volumes, indicating renewed investor interest in broad-based ETFs [3] - There was a notable net inflow into the Hang Seng Technology and Hong Kong internet-themed ETFs, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment despite market volatility [4] Group 3 - The market is expected to transition from valuation-driven logic to earnings-driven logic, with a focus on the quality of earnings, cash flow, and dividend capabilities of listed companies [5] - The dual focus on cyclical and technology sectors is emerging, with the performance of both sectors likely to depend on the verification of fundamental strengths [5][6] - In the context of economic recovery, the market is anticipated to maintain a volatile upward trend, favoring large and mid-cap blue-chip stocks [6]

Group 1 - The South Korea-China semiconductor ETF (513310) surged by 9.64%, leading the market, with a premium rate of 21.10% and a turnover rate exceeding 125% [1] - The semiconductor equipment sector continues to rise, driven by a sustained "supply-demand imbalance" in the global storage industry, which is expected to maintain its upward trend until after 2027 [1] - The strong performance of the semiconductor design sector is attributed to Nvidia's impressive earnings report and the confirmation of long-term resilience in AI computing demand, alongside accelerated domestic industry development and supportive policies [2] Group 2 - The short-term bond ETF (511360) recorded a transaction volume exceeding 66 billion yuan, ranking first in the market, while several A500 ETFs also saw significant trading volumes [2] - There has been a notable net inflow of funds into the Hang Seng Technology and Hong Kong internet-themed ETFs, indicating a reversal in market sentiment despite overall market fluctuations [3] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with large and mid-cap blue-chip stocks likely to outperform in the context of economic recovery [4]

ETF Industry News - The three major indices showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.29. Communication sector ETFs saw gains, with 5G ETF Bosera (159811.SZ) up 3.41%, Communication ETF Jiashi (159695.SZ) up 2.78%, and Communication ETF Guangfa (159507.SZ) up 2.73% [1] - In contrast, several ETFs in the power equipment sector declined, including Lithium Battery ETF (561160.SH) down 2.34%, Battery ETF Jiashi (562880.SH) down 2.30%, and Battery ETF (561910.SH) down 2.23% [1] Fund Flows - The Hang Seng Technology ETF attracted over 100 billion yuan in net subscriptions over the past six months, with a net inflow of 34.25 billion yuan in the current year, indicating a "buy the dip" trend [2] Market Overview - The A-share market and major overseas indices showed varied performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4146.63 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 14503.79 points, and the ChiNext Index at 3344.98 points [3] - The top-performing sectors included communication, electronics, and defense, with daily gains of 2.84%, 1.98%, and 1.52% respectively [6] ETF Performance - Stock-style ETFs performed the best today, with an average gain of 0.48%, while cross-border ETFs had the worst performance with an average decline of 1.56% [9] - The top three stock ETFs by performance were Guozheng 2000 ETF Bosera (159505.SZ) at 5.04%, 5G ETF Bosera (159811.SZ) at 3.41%, and Sci-Tech Machinery ETF Jiashi (588850.SH) at 3.31% [12] Trading Volume - The top three stock ETFs by trading volume were A500 ETF Fund (512050.SH) with 10.705 billion yuan, A500 ETF Huatai-PB (563360.SH) with 7.747 billion yuan, and A500 ETF Southern (159352.SZ) with 7.660 billion yuan [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant influx of funds into Hong Kong stock-themed ETFs, particularly the Hang Seng Technology ETF, indicating a new trend in asset allocation for 2026 [1][2][3] - As of February 24, 2023, the Hang Seng Technology ETF saw a net inflow of 342.50 billion yuan year-to-date, while the overall market for broad-based ETFs experienced net redemptions exceeding 1000 billion yuan [2][3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has dropped over 21% since its peak in October 2022, yet this decline has not deterred investors, who are adopting a "buy the dip" strategy [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the Hang Seng Technology ETF has accumulated a total net subscription of 1047.30 billion yuan over the past six months, indicating strong investor interest despite market volatility [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the current low valuation of Hong Kong stocks, combined with a shift in global monetary policy, has made these ETFs an attractive option for investors seeking to capitalize on potential rebounds [2][4] - The Hang Seng Technology Index's current price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 22 times, which is considered low compared to historical averages, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to global tech indices [5][6] Group 3 - Investment strategies are being discussed, with recommendations for a balanced approach to ETF investments, including both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as well as sector-specific ETFs [6] - The potential for growth in the Hong Kong technology sector is linked to advancements in AI, although there are concerns about the sustainability of valuations in the face of changing market conditions [4][6] - Investors are advised to consider dollar-cost averaging as a strategy, while closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which could impact the valuation recovery of Hong Kong stocks [6]

Group 1 - The ETF market has shown a "mixed" trend this year, with broad-based ETFs experiencing net outflows while Hong Kong-themed ETFs have gained traction, indicating a structural allocation logic in the current market [1] - Specific data shows that as of February 24, the Hang Seng Tech ETF saw a net inflow of 29.6 billion, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF had a net inflow of 11.3 billion, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Medicine ETF recorded a net inflow of 3.015 billion, and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF had a net inflow of 2.625 billion [1] Group 2 - Investors are increasingly focused on the investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market, with a notable interest in low valuations, sector focus, and liquidity-driven strategies [2] - The outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, with expectations of marginal improvements in corporate earnings and liquidity factors, which could provide a buffer against external volatility [2] - The ongoing AI technology wave is expected to continue driving growth, with a focus on technology and innovative sectors, while the supply-demand balance in the metals sector is also highlighted as a potential area of interest [2]