安徽建工（600502） 证券研究报告 一季度收入&订单稳健增长，关注后续订单结转速度 Q1 收入业绩稳健增长，基建订单快速放量 公司发布 25 年一季报，25Q1 公司实现营业收入 145.42 亿元，同比+7.42%， 实现归母净利润 3.11 亿元，同比+0.31%，扣非归母净利润 2.71 亿元，同 -4.86%。从订单层面来看，25Q1 合计新签订单 408.48 亿元，同比+3.76%， 其中基建、房建分别新签 292.12、105.73 亿元，同比分别+11.91%、-17.88%， 基建业务订单持续扩容主要依托公路桥梁订单的增加，细分项目中，25Q1 公路桥梁、市政工程、水利工程、港航工程新签订单分别为 237.9、36.09、 12.69、5.44 亿元，同比分别+318.25%、-74.79%、-78.98%、+736.92%。此 外，公司其他业务（含智能制造、检测、设计咨询等业务）快速放量，新 签合同金额 10.63 亿元，同比增长 172.94%。 盈利能力小幅下滑，控费能力有所提升 25Q1 公司毛利率为 12.4%，同比-0.55pct，期间费用率为 9.13%，同比 -0.34p ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-B" for the construction industry [9] Core Insights - The fiscal policy for 2025 is expected to be more proactive, with an emphasis on increasing deficits and expanding the issuance of special bonds, which will support steady growth in infrastructure investment [10][12] - The approval of 10 new nuclear power units indicates a positive trend in the nuclear power sector, with a total investment expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [4][18] - The construction industry is anticipated to benefit from improved government investment and debt resolution measures, leading to a marginal improvement in the industry's fundamentals [3][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The political bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for proactive macro policies, including the timely introduction of incremental reserve policies and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments [3][16] - Infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, driven by increased domestic demand and government support for local government debt issuance [3][17] Market Performance - The construction sector saw a weekly increase of 0.76%, underperforming the Shenzhen Composite Index but outperforming the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index [20] - The chemical engineering sector performed notably well with a weekly increase of 5.34% [20] Company Announcements - The report highlights significant contract wins, including China Energy Construction winning a project worth approximately 5.118 billion yuan [33] - The report also notes the financial performance of various companies, with some showing substantial year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit [34][35] Key Focus Stocks - The report suggests focusing on undervalued construction state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved financial metrics and market conditions [10][11][12] - It also recommends attention to construction design firms and international engineering service providers that are expanding their overseas presence [11][12]

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 28 年 月 日 投资建议：我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 129/136/141 亿，同比 增长 7%/5%/4%，EPS 分别为 0.75/0.79/0.82 元/股，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 6.4/6.1/5.9 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：电力投资不及预期、信用减值风险、新能源投产盈利不及预期等。 中国电建（601669.SH） 现金流显著改善，新能源盈利占比持续提升 减值增加致 Q4 业绩承压，新能源工程业务维持高增。2024 年公司实现营业收入 6346 亿，同增 4%；实现归母净利润 120 亿，同降 7%；扣非归母净利润同降 5%。 分季度看：Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 单季分别实现营收 1403/1451/1410/2082 亿，同比 +5%/-2%/+1%/+10%；单季归母净利润分别为 30/33/25/32 亿，同比+1%/- 12%/-9%/-7%，Q4 营收增长明显提速，业绩有所承压，主要因单季计提减值损 失 49 亿，较同期增加 16 亿。分业务看：工程承包业务实现营收 5431 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in cash flow, with a notable increase in the profitability share from renewable energy [1][2]. - Despite a decrease in net profit for 2024, the company’s revenue growth remains stable, driven by strong performance in the renewable energy sector [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 634.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12 billion, a decrease of 7% [1]. - The quarterly breakdown shows Q4 revenue growth accelerating to 208.2 billion, up 10% year-on-year, although impacted by a 4th quarter impairment loss of 4.9 billion [1][2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 13.3%, a slight decline of 0.06 percentage points, primarily due to the impact of overseas business profitability [2]. Business Segment Performance - The engineering contracting business generated revenue of 543.1 billion, up 4.5%, with significant growth in energy and environmental sectors [1][2]. - The renewable energy segment has expanded rapidly, with installed capacity reaching 33 GW by the end of 2024, representing a 37% year-on-year increase [3]. Order Growth and Future Outlook - The company signed new contracts worth 1.2707 trillion in 2024, an increase of 11.2%, with the energy sector contracts growing by 24% [4]. - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 12.9 billion, 13.6 billion, and 14.1 billion respectively, indicating a growth trajectory [5].

二、前10名无限售条件股东持股情况 前十大流通股东累计持有： 3012.25万股，累计占流通股比： 41.03%，较上期变化： 92.20万股。 | 名称 持有数量(万股) | | 占总股本比例 | 增减情况(万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | 股) | | 易山 | 638.00 | 8.69 | 不变 | | 盐城中岩投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 632.23 | 8.61 | 不变 | | 王立建 | 489.41 | 6.67 | -373.20 | | 吴剑波 | 360.96 | 4.92 | 210.75 | | 武思宇 | 291.06 | 3.96 | 170.25 | | 西藏博恩资产管理有限公司-博恩光华六期私募证券投 资基金 | 180.02 | 2.45 | 41.83 | | 方永中 | 153.80 | 2.10 | 新进 | | 上海趣时资产管理有限公司-趣时分红增长1号证券投 资基金 | 130.64 | 1.78 | 1.94 | | 上海趣时资产管理有限公司-趣时优选2号私募证券投 资基金 | 69.93 | 0.95 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The fourth quarter performance shows significant recovery, and the high dividend payout enhances investment attractiveness [4] - The company is expected to increase its cash dividend ratio to no less than 60% from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding dividend yields projected at 6.7%, 7.6%, and 8.4% [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 107.238 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.78%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.210 billion yuan, down 19.92% [5] - The fourth quarter alone saw revenue of 35.361 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.73%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 2.437 billion yuan, up 94.97% [5] - The company’s total cash dividend for 2024 is projected at 3.606 billion yuan, with a cash dividend ratio of 50.02%, leading to a dividend yield of 4.87% based on the closing price on April 23 [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: 115.042 billion yuan in 2023, 107.238 billion yuan in 2024, 118.513 billion yuan in 2025, 130.498 billion yuan in 2026, and 141.155 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 9.004 billion yuan in 2023, 7.210 billion yuan in 2024, 8.354 billion yuan in 2025, 9.405 billion yuan in 2026, and 10.460 billion yuan in 2027 [4] Market Performance - The company’s engineering construction, mining and new materials, and clean energy segments generated revenues of 92.952 billion yuan, 3.343 billion yuan, and 610 million yuan in 2024, with year-on-year changes of -10.53%, +98.13%, and +33.26% respectively [5] - The company has a robust order backlog, with a total remaining order amount of 291.3 billion yuan, approximately 2.72 times the revenue scale of 2024, providing a solid foundation for future revenue and profit release [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company has a substantial backlog of orders, with a total of 290 billion yuan in hand orders, which is expected to support future revenue growth [2][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 50.02% for 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 4.87% based on the closing price on April 22, 2024. The company has also announced that the cash dividend ratio for 2025-2027 will not be less than 60% of the annual net profit attributable to the parent company, indicating a commitment to high dividend payouts [1][4]. - The company experienced a significant improvement in Q4 2024, with revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 38.73% and 94.97% year-on-year, respectively, suggesting recovery from previous operational disruptions [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 107.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.78% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.21 billion yuan, down 19.92% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 showed a strong recovery with revenue of 35.36 billion yuan and net profit of 2.44 billion yuan [1][5]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 15.7%, a decrease of 2.47 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.87%, down 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. Business Segments - The company reported revenues from various segments in 2024: engineering construction (92.95 billion yuan, down 10.53%), mining and new materials (3.34 billion yuan, up 98.13%), and clean energy (610 million yuan, up 33.26%) [2][5]. - The mining and clean energy segments benefited from acquisitions made in 2023, which contributed to revenue growth and improved gross margins [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.1 billion yuan in 2025, with projected growth rates of 12.32%, 9.19%, and 8.57% for the following years [4][5]. - The anticipated increase in transportation investment in Sichuan Province to 280 billion yuan in 2025, up 7.7% from 2024, is expected to further enhance the company's order intake and revenue potential [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a new growth cycle in 2025 after experiencing a low point in profitability in 2024, with a projected revenue of 107.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.8% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 36.1 billion yuan for 2024, representing a dividend payout ratio of 50.02% [1] - The company has a strong order backlog of 2.913 trillion yuan, which is 2.7 times its projected revenue for 2024, indicating robust future revenue potential [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a gross margin of 15.7%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to transitional impacts from project changes [2] - The net profit margin is expected to be 6.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is forecasted to generate a net operating cash flow of 3.43 billion yuan in 2024, a significant improvement from a net outflow of 2.12 billion yuan in the previous year [2] Future Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to grow at a rate of 15% annually from 2025 to 2027, reaching 8.3 billion yuan in 2025, 9.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 11 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.9, 7.7, and 6.7 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [4] Market Context - The company is expected to benefit from the high demand for infrastructure projects in Sichuan, supported by national strategic initiatives [3] - The company has been actively participating in high-margin projects, which are anticipated to contribute significantly to its revenue growth in the coming years [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a new growth cycle in 2025 after experiencing a low point in profitability in 2024, with a projected revenue of 107.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.21 billion yuan, down 19.9% year-on-year [1][4] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 36.1 billion yuan for 2024, representing a dividend payout ratio of 50.02% [1] - The company has a strong order growth momentum, with remaining orders amounting to 291.3 billion yuan, which is 2.7 times the expected revenue for 2024, indicating robust future performance [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 15.7%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the transitional phase of engineering projects [2] - The operating cash flow significantly improved, with a net inflow of 3.43 billion yuan in 2024, compared to a net outflow of 2.12 billion yuan in the previous year [2] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 6.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] Future Projections - The company’s net profit is expected to grow by 15% annually from 2025 to 2027, reaching 8.3 billion yuan in 2025, 9.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 11 billion yuan in 2027 [4][5] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.9, 7.7, and 6.7 respectively, indicating a favorable investment valuation [5] Market Context - The company is positioned to benefit from the high demand for infrastructure development in Sichuan, supported by national strategic initiatives [3] - The company has been actively participating in high-margin projects, which are expected to contribute significantly to its revenue growth in the coming years [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for China Railway Construction Corporation (601186.SH) [5][19][3] Core Views - The company experienced revenue and profit pressure in 2024, with total revenue of 1,067.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.22 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 309 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.52 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year. Despite the overall industry downturn, the company’s proactive investment contraction led to a significant reduction in investment losses, with a non-recurring net profit increase of 6.6% year-on-year in Q4 [6][3][19] - The company’s overseas new contract signing continued to grow, with a total of 3,120 billion yuan in new overseas contracts, up 23.4% year-on-year, while total new contracts signed for the year were 30,370 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year. The company is optimizing its investment structure, significantly reducing new contracts in investment operation businesses by 65.6% year-on-year [7][3][19] - The overall gross margin slightly decreased to 10.27%, down 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, with a more significant decline in Q4 to 7.79%, down 5.60 percentage points year-on-year. The company effectively controlled expenses, with a total expense ratio of 5.89%, up 0.42 percentage points year-on-year, while management, research and development, and sales expenses all saw declines [9][2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1,067.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 22.22 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year. The fourth quarter figures were 309 billion yuan in revenue and 6.52 billion yuan in net profit [6][3][4] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities turned negative at -31.42 billion yuan, with a collection ratio of 100.5% and a payment ratio of 103.2% [15][2] Investment and Contracts - The total new contracts signed in 2024 were 30,370 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year, with overseas contracts increasing by 23.4% to 3,120 billion yuan. The company is shifting focus from investment-driven construction to optimizing investment operations [7][3][19] Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 10.27%, with a significant drop in Q4 to 7.79%. The company maintained expense control, resulting in a stable overall profitability despite increased competition [9][2][3] Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for the next three years at 22.1 billion yuan, 22.6 billion yuan, and 22.6 billion yuan, with earnings per share projected at 1.63 yuan, 1.66 yuan, and 1.67 yuan respectively. The current price-to-earnings ratio is estimated at 4.97, 4.87, and 4.90 for the next three years [19][4][3]