交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-8 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润有所好转，俄乌和平协 议短期受挫，油价震荡偏强。供需端，农膜需求处于弱势，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所 转好。当前LL交割品现货价6680（-60），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差6，升贴水比例0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.7万吨（-0.4），偏 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - PE is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, lacking upward drivers. The supply is expected to remain loose due to limited future device maintenance and the restart of previously shut - down devices, while the demand is approaching the end of the peak season with limited future growth potential. The LLDPE social inventory has a high absolute level, and the de - stocking expectation is weak, resulting in large supply - demand pressure [1]. - In the short term, PE is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The recent sharp decline in the PE disk is due to the weak performance of LLDPE spot, the lack of follow - up in the spot market during the previous disk rise, and the shift of the PE fundamentals to a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand [5]. - In the long - term, the supply pressure of LLDPE may ease next year, but the sharp increase in the supply of non - standard products may be transmitted to LLDPE and suppress its price [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply: Future PE device maintenance is expected to be limited, and the restart of previously shut - down devices will increase the supply, keeping it loose. - Demand: The peak season of downstream demand is ending, and the agricultural film operating rate is declining, with limited future demand growth [1]. - Inventory: The LLDPE social inventory is de - stocking, but the absolute level is still high, and the de - stocking expectation is weak under the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. - Price range: L2601 is between 6600 - 6900. - Strategy suggestion: Consider selling call options [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Basis strategy: None for now. - Spread strategy: 1 - 5 reverse spread. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Short - term focus on the narrowing of the L - P spread [11]. - Hedging strategy for inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs. - Hedging strategy for procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Negative information: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton LDPE/EVA device is planned to start production soon [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - This week's spot market transactions were generally weak, but there was speculative replenishment by downstream enterprises when the disk dropped sharply on Thursday. - Attention should be paid to the Central Economic Work Conference on December 8th and the National Fiscal Work Conference [14][17]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: After a rebound last week, the PE disk has entered a downward oscillating trend again. - Capital movement: The position of the 01 contract has decreased as it approaches delivery. There was no significant change in the top - five long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list. The net short position of the top - five profitable seats increased slightly, and the long positions of the main profitable seats decreased this week, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market [19]. - Basis structure: Due to the continuous pessimistic industrial sentiment, the spot price was suppressed, causing a sharp decline in the disk on Thursday and Friday, and the basis strengthened passively. As of Friday, the North China basis was 26 yuan/ton (up 85 from last week), the East China basis was 186 yuan/ton (up 95), and the South China basis was 176 yuan/ton (up 35) [23]. - Spread structure: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure because of the relatively optimistic market expectation for the future macro - situation and the limited production capacity expansion of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year, which may ease the supply - demand pressure of standard products [25]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - With the continuous weakening of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines have been compressed [29]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Supply: Although device maintenance has increased recently, the high existing production capacity and the commissioning of multiple devices in the fourth quarter have made it difficult to relieve the supply pressure. Overseas supply - demand is also weak, and imports are expected to increase, further increasing the total supply. - Demand: At the end of the year, the agricultural film operating rate is expected to decline, weakening the rigid support on the demand side and intensifying the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [37]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 84.05% (- 0.46%). Some devices such as Dushanzi Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical entered maintenance this week, causing a slight decline in the operating rate. The operating rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level due to limited planned maintenance at the end of the year. Zhejiang Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA device is expected to start production soon, and Yulong Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA device is expected to start production early next year, indicating large supply pressure [43]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: The PE price in the US market has stabilized and rebounded, and the offers from the US have decreased recently. Although imports are expected to increase slightly from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, in the long - run, PE imports are expected to be gradually replaced by domestic supply. - Export: Enterprises have a high enthusiasm for expanding export channels this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the overall volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [52]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The current average operating rate of PE downstream industries is 44.3% (- 0.54%). Among them, the agricultural film operating rate is 48.02% (- 0.92%), the packaging film operating rate is 50.22% (- 0.48%), the pipe operating rate is 31.83% (0%), the injection molding operating rate is 49.55% (- 0.5%), the hollow operating rate is 38.38% (- 0.74%), and the drawing operating rate is 33.02% (- 1.1%). The comprehensive operating rate of PE has declined this week, especially the agricultural film production has entered the off - season with an obvious decline in the operating rate. The future growth space of PE demand is limited, intensifying the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [60].

南华期货聚丙烯产业周报 ∗ 远端交易预期 ——现货端悲观情绪形成拖累 戴一帆 投资咨询资格证号 Z0015428 研究助理 顾恒烨 期货从业资格证号 F0343348 联系邮箱：guhy@nawaa，com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前PP估值已经被压制较极端水平，PDH装置生产利润已经压至-800元/吨以下的年内低位，同时PP-丙烯价 差也降至200元/吨以下。但是在当前的低利润情况下并未看到下游有太多的负反馈出现，先前停车的巨正源 四条线也相继重启。因此，从当前PP的基本面情况来看，供应端，虽然检修量仍维持在偏高位，但暂未能看 到新的增量出现，后续供应预计基本持平或有小幅回升；需求端，本周现货成交情况缩量比较明显，下游补 库意愿偏低，且在前期PP盘面回升时，现货并未能出现回升，基差明显走弱。当前市场情绪仍然较为悲观， 导致盘面回升幅度受限。 PP-PDH现货利润-FEI季节性 source： 同花顺,wind,南华研究 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 ...

Corporate Announcements - China Pacific Insurance announced that Vice President Yu Ze is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law, but this will not affect the company's management [2] - Guanglian Aviation reported that its controlling shareholder and chairman Wang Zengduo has had his detention lifted, allowing him to resume his duties, with normal operations continuing [3] - China Communications Construction Company clarified that it bears no repayment or guarantee obligations related to overdue financial products linked to its controlling shareholder, and its operations remain normal [4] - Annie Co. is planning a change in control, with stock trading resuming on December 8, 2025, after a share transfer agreement is signed [5] - Guoao Technology announced that its actual controller is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [6] - ST Tianrui terminated its planned change in control due to a lack of consensus, with stock resuming trading on December 8, 2025 [7] Industry Developments - Double Star New Materials noted that leading companies in the BOPET industry have reached a consensus on production cuts to balance supply and demand, although the sustainability of long-term price increases remains uncertain [8] - First Venture received a notice of administrative penalty for failing to diligently supervise a bond project, resulting in fines and warnings, but this will not significantly impact its operations [12] - China Chemical announced that its nylon new materials project has reached full production capacity, enhancing efficiency and market competitiveness [14] Pharmaceutical Sector Updates - Hengrui Medicine reported that nine of its drugs have been included in the national medical insurance directory, with a total expected sales of approximately 8.66 billion yuan for 2024 [15] - Junshi Biosciences announced that its products have received new indications and have been included in the national medical insurance directory, enhancing market accessibility [16] - Huadong Medicine's subsidiary has had its products included in the national medical insurance and commercial insurance innovation drug directories, aiding market promotion [17] - Aidi Pharmaceutical's two innovative HIV drugs have been renewed for inclusion in the national medical insurance directory, with specific pricing established [18] - ZhiXiang JinTai's monoclonal antibody has been included in the national medical insurance directory, which is expected to positively impact future sales [19] - Fosun Pharma announced multiple products have been newly included in the national medical insurance directory, which is anticipated to positively influence future performance [20] - Zejing Pharmaceutical's drug has been included in the national medical insurance directory, which will enhance affordability and market promotion [21] - Micron Biologics' product has been included in the national medical insurance directory, with no significant impact on current performance expected [22] Shareholder Commitments - Tianci Materials' controlling shareholder has committed not to reduce his shareholding in the company for six months, reflecting confidence in the company's future [23] Major Contracts - Guangqi Technology's subsidiary signed contracts worth 696 million yuan for the mass production of metamaterials, expected to impact the company's performance in 2026 [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the valuation of PE decreased slightly, the monomer rebounded slightly, and there were expectations of increased supply and decreased demand. The cost - side support for PE was average, and the market supply - demand pattern was not optimistic. Q4 might gradually enter a pattern of increased supply and decreased demand, putting pressure on prices [6]. - The raw material - end crude oil fluctuated weakly, and the Northeast Asian ethylene rebounded by $5. The weighted profits of oil - based, coal - based, ethylene, and ethane were compressed, but no supply elasticity was observed. The downstream demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries provided some support, but considering the decline in agricultural film production and the increasing supply - side pressure at the end of the year, the market situation was not favorable [6]. - The base difference weakened slightly, the monthly difference fluctuated at a low level, and the warehouse receipts decreased at a high level as the base difference strengthened periodically. The production profits of different production methods showed different trends, with oil - based and coal - based profits at relatively low levels [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - **Supply** - The total effective capacity growth rate was 16%, and the domestic production growth rate was 18% in the first half of the year. The overall supply was loose, and the PE total start - up rate was 84.1% (- 0.4%). The subsequent supply was expected to decrease slightly, but overall, it would remain in a loose state. The import volume might increase significantly at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 [6]. - **Demand** - The start - up rate of the agricultural film industry continued to decline, and the demand for packaging films had a short - term increase but was not strong enough to support the market. The start - up rates of other downstream industries were expected to decline slightly, and the demand for raw materials was expected to decrease [6]. - **Viewpoint** - The cost - side support for PE was general, and the supply - demand pattern was not optimistic. The supply pressure would gradually increase at the end of the year, and the inventory removal was not smooth. The market was expected to enter a pattern of increased supply and decreased demand in Q4, with prices under pressure [6]. - **Valuation** - The base difference weakened slightly, the monthly difference fluctuated at a low level, and the warehouse receipts decreased at a high level as the base difference strengthened periodically. The production profits of different production methods were compressed to varying degrees [6]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, it was recommended to short on rebounds. The upper pressure level for the 01 contract was 6900, and the lower support level was 6600. Cross - period and cross - variety trading were not recommended for the time being [6]. 3.2 Polyethylene Spread and Profit - **Price Spread** - The futures price decreased, the basis in East and South China was relatively strong, while that in North China first weakened and then strengthened slightly after the Friday's decline in the futures price. The monthly difference fluctuated at a low level, and the warehouse receipts decreased as the basis strengthened [9][13]. - **External Price** - The CIF price in China decreased by $5 - 10. The price in the US stopped falling and stabilized, the low - pressure injection molding was weak, the LD in Europe recovered, and the high - pressure in Southeast Asia had a relatively high price ratio [20]. - **Import Profit** - The import window was compressed, the non - standard import profit was at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years, and the LD import profit was at a relatively high level within the year. The US inventory clearance pressure was relieved, and the subsequent import volume might remain high at the beginning of the year, but new import orders were relatively cautious [27]. - **Non - Standard Price Spread** - The non - standard price spread of HD film was relatively high due to tight supply, which might attract some petrochemical plants to switch production, and supply pressure might be realized in the middle and late November. The LD price spread started to weaken month - on - month [30]. - **Upstream Price** - Crude oil fluctuated at a low level, naphtha was flat, ethylene continued to rebound, and coal prices were relatively strong [35]. - **Production Profit** - The overall production profit was compressed, especially in the monomer segment. The profits of MTO and ethylene - purchasing processes decreased slightly [41]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **New Capacity** - From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the standard products were intensively put into production, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 19.2% and an effective capacity growth rate of 16.7%. Before the 2605 contract, the capacity addition was limited [45]. - **Existing Start - up** - From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base increased, the total supply increased significantly, the start - up rate was at a neutral level, and the maintenance volume was temporarily the same as the previous year [46]. - **Standard Product Supply** - The LLDPE capacity was intensively put into production, the production ratio was at a neutral level, and the supply was expected to increase in December as the maintenance scale decreased compared to November [51]. - **Maintenance Plan** - The subsequent maintenance scale was expected to decline, and the monthly maintenance volume in Q4 was temporarily lower than the same period last year [53]. - **Import and Export** - The domestic production increased significantly, and the import volume was at a low level compared to the same period. The import volume might increase at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. The import of standard products was at a low level, and the import of LD was the same as last year. The Middle East sources from Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased slightly in October [56][59][62]. - **Inventory** - The supply gradually recovered, the upstream actively reduced inventory, and some downstream enterprises placed orders at low prices. The inventory of standard and non - standard products at factories continued to decline, and the middle and downstream mainly consumed their previous inventories [64][69]. - **Downstream Demand** - The start - up rate of the agricultural film industry continued to decline, the packaging film industry's start - up rate was the same as the previous year, the raw material procurement enthusiasm was limited, the profit was at a high level, and the orders were slightly lower than the same period. The demand for PE pipes improved slightly in Q4, and the raw material inventory was slightly lower than the same period. Overall, the downstream demand showed signs of marginal decline [71][78][84][87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On December 5, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%. The overall supply and demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and there is no further macro - level positive news. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 5, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the agricultural film entering the end of the peak season and orders continuing to decline. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - end crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and the trading atmosphere of plastics is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61%. The position increased by 7056 lots to 393540 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price range from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6650 - 6920 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8390 - 8980 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6880 - 7580 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 5, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%, at a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of December 5, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film entered the end of the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - **Inventory**: The Friday's petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fluctuated around 63 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 720 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 740 US dollars/ton [4]

震荡下行，月内探底回升 范阿骄 Tel：025-68908477 Email:fanejiao@ftol.com.cn 从业资格号: F3054801 投资咨询证号：Z0016954 摘要 PVC 月报 金融研究院 研究报告 –PVC 月报 2025 年 12 月 金融研究院 11 月 PVC 主力合约（V2601）价格呈"先抑 后稳"走势，月内最低触及 4,456 元/吨。 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需 求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续弱势震荡格局， 价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏 空，资金呈多空博弈后净减仓态势。 一、行情回顾 （1）PVC 价格先抑后稳，月末企稳回升 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续 弱势震荡格局，价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏空，资金呈多空 博弈后净减仓态势。 11 月 PVC 价格走势震荡下行，月内探底回升。11 月 PVC 期货主力合约（V2601） 整体呈现"前期探底、月末企稳"的震荡下行后回升态势。全月价格重心较 10 月下移，截至 11 月 28 日，V2601 合约收盘价 454 ...

Core Viewpoint - The plastic futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping over 1% and reaching a low of 6673.00 yuan, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main plastic futures contract reported a price of 6698.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.25% [1]. - The market is characterized by weak fluctuations, with institutions predicting continued bearish trends in the near term [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent maintenance at Shanghai Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical has led to a slight decrease in PE production, while new capacity from Yulong's low-density facility is expected to increase supply pressure [2]. - The operating rates for agricultural and packaging films have shown a marginal decline, contributing to a weaker demand outlook [2]. - The supply-demand balance remains fragile, with geopolitical tensions continuing to pose risks to supply chains, despite some stability in international oil prices [2]. Group 3: Cost and Pricing Factors - The cost side remains under pressure, with Russian oil production unaffected by recent sanctions, while the potential for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine appears limited [2]. - New production capacities from ExxonMobil and PetroChina have been introduced, further complicating the supply landscape [2]. - The overall trading atmosphere is subdued, with a cautious approach from traders and a focus on essential purchases, leading to price reductions in the market [2].

Core Insights - The plastic production in Qinghai Province for September 2025 reached 80,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, but the growth rate has slowed down by 16.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, the total plastic production was 650,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, which is a decrease of 10.5 percentage points from the previous year [1] Monthly Production Analysis - In September 2025, the plastic production accounted for 0.6% of the national total production of 12,665,469.6 tons [1] - The growth rate in September 2025 was 0.6 percentage points lower than the national average [1] Cumulative Production Analysis - From January to September 2025, Qinghai's plastic production also represented 0.6% of the national total of 10,970,311.3 tons [1] - The cumulative growth rate was 6.9 percentage points lower than the national average during the same period [1]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月05日 隔夜沪铝上涨。近期资金推涨有色,铝市远期存在偏紧预期，短期供需矛盾有限,铝锭社库维持窄 幅波动，季节性库存表现中性。沪铝站稳22000元打开上方空间，震荡偏强趋势或有一定延续。 (铸造铝合金) 昨日保太ADC12现货报价上调200元至21100元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整仍未明确，行业库存 和交易所仓单均处于高位水平。宏观驱动下铸造铝合金跟涨乏力，与沪铝价差扩大至千元以上，关 注年末可能存在收窄空间。 (氧化铝) (原油) 油价夜盘收涨。市场预期美联储降息，俄乌和平计划进展停滞，削弱了市场对达成协议后恢复俄沟 出口预期。 周四调查显示，尽管OPEC+同意提高11月份产量，但由于一些成员国的停产， OPEC11月 石油产量仍有所下降，故该组织的供应量进一步低于其目标且略低于10月产量。综上，短期内利多 因素占据主导下油价震荡偏强。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人远低于预期，创2022年9月以来新低,缓解劳动力 市场急剧恶化担忧。12月降息已基本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属整 ...