Core Insights - The production of primary plastic shapes in Tianjin reached 3.649 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, marking a 27.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024, which is 30.7 percentage points higher than the growth rate in 2024 and 16.1 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - In September 2025 alone, the production was 454,000 tons, reflecting a 21.8% increase year-on-year, with a growth rate 9.2 percentage points higher than in 2024 and 11.4 percentage points above the national average [2] Group 1 - The cumulative production of primary plastic shapes in Tianjin for the first nine months of 2025 was 3.649 million tons, accounting for 3.3% of the national total of 109.703 million tons [1] - The production growth rate in Tianjin for the first nine months of 2025 was significantly higher than both the previous year and the national average [1] - In September 2025, Tianjin's production represented 3.6% of the national total of 12.665 million tons for that month [2] Group 2 - The production in September 2025 was 454,000 tons, continuing the upward trend with a notable increase compared to September 2024 [2] - The increase in September's production was 21.8%, indicating sustained growth in the primary plastic shapes sector [2]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603580 | *ST文文 | 14.79 | -5.01% | 7221.0 | 1067.99万 | | 300806 | 斯迪克 | 54.14 | -2.03% | 38.24万 | 20.91亿 | | 002768 | 国恩股份 | 55.75 | -0.09% | 3.27万 | 1.83亿 | | 603879 | 永悦科技 | 6.26 | 0.16% | 1 10.16万 | 6355.34万 | | 605008 | 长鸡层松 | 13.76 | 0.22% | 2.06万 | 2835.67万 | | 301395 | 仁信新材 | 13.60 | 0.37% | 3.35万 | 4582.82万 | | 000920 | 沃顿科技 | 13.02 | 0.62% | 6.10万 | 7942.45万 | | 920469 | 富恒新材 | 10.91 | 0.83% | 1.73万 | 1873.14万 | | 3016 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The import profit of LLDPE has narrowed, the offer is limited, and the support from oil prices has weakened. The raw material end crude oil price has dropped significantly, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has recovered. The PE market has rebounded, but the downstream has not chased up to replenish stocks. The near - end downstream agricultural film has weakened, and the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. There are still supply - demand pressures before the Spring Festival due to high inventory and weakening demand [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 is 6878, with a daily decline of 1.94%, the trading volume is 885,291, and the position has decreased by 7,317 [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 05 contract is - 158 (previous day: - 154), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 41 (previous day: - 55) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 6,720 yuan/ton, 6,880 yuan/ton, and 6,940 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price has declined, the upstream inventory has been transferred, the enterprise quotations remain stable, and the agency orders and mid - stream sales are weak. Yulong Petrochemical has shut down, and the standard product production is neutral. The downstream product profit has been compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The overseas offer has risen, the LL supply is scarce, the long - term import profit is open, but the importer's transactions have not increased significantly, and downstream factories are mostly cautious [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end crude oil price has dropped significantly, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has recovered. The PE market has rebounded, but the downstream has not chased up to replenish stocks. The near - end downstream agricultural film has weakened, and the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial production, the maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, some FD has switched back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure caused by high inventory and weakening demand before the Spring Festival still needs attention [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]

Group 1 - The core advantage of the U.S. lies in the military and the dollar system, which influences market dynamics and pricing logic, indicating a significant shift in 2026 compared to 2025, primarily driven by the direction of the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is aimed at controlling inflation and restoring policy credibility, with a target to reduce the balance sheet from approximately $6.6 trillion to below $5 trillion [5][12] - The ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 in January, indicating a significant rebound in the manufacturing sector, driven by new orders and production indices, suggesting the U.S. economy is emerging from a low point [5][7] Group 2 - The increase in the PMI is partially attributed to seasonal factors and potential preemptive purchasing due to tariff pressures, indicating that the sustainability of this growth needs further validation [8][10] - There is a divergence between the S&P PMI and ISM PMI, with the former indicating a slowdown in business activity, suggesting that the ISM PMI rebound may have short-term distortions [10] - Input costs for manufacturers have continued to rise, with the ISM prices index indicating that 29% of companies reported higher input prices, driven by increases in steel and aluminum costs [13]

Group 1 - The company plans to acquire the plastic and engineering plastic compound business department of Hwaseung Chemical Vietnam Co., Ltd. to expand its overseas market and enhance its sustainable development capabilities [1] - The acquisition will involve purchasing 100% of the target company's shares, with a preliminary total purchase price set at $15.737 million, based on the net assets and business assets of the existing company's compound business department as of June 30, 2025 [1] - The final transfer price will be determined after an audit of the target company's asset and liability situation on the pricing benchmark date [1]

Group 1 - The company plans to acquire the plastic and engineering plastic compound business department of Hwaseung Chemical Vietnam Co., Ltd. for a tentative total purchase price of $15,737,000 [1] - The acquisition will be executed through the establishment of a new company, with 100% of its shares being transferred to the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Dawn Polymer Materials (Singapore) Investment Co., Ltd. [1] - The final purchase price will be determined based on an audit of the target company's assets and liabilities as of the pricing benchmark date [1] Group 2 - The transaction is a significant step in the company's globalization strategy and aims to deepen its overseas presence [2] - The acquisition is intended to align with the trend of key customers shifting their supply chains to regions like Vietnam, enhancing local supply capabilities and strengthening strategic partnerships [2] - Local production is expected to reduce cross-border logistics costs, shorten delivery times, and improve after-sales support efficiency, thereby enhancing the overall competitiveness of the company's products and services [2]

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 3.23% on February 2, with Zhongyan Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Bofei Electric (Code: 001255) with a closing price of 40.43, up 1.99% [1] - Guangchuan Co. (Code: 001333) with a closing price of 26.90, up 1.43% [1] - Significant decliners included: - Zhongyan Co. (Code: 688716) with a closing price of 38.31, down 8.13% [2] - Xiangyuan New Materials (Code: 300980) with a closing price of 34.42, down 7.00% [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 708 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 419 million yuan [2] - The total trading volume for the plastic sector was significant, with individual stocks showing varied performance in terms of capital flow [3] Capital Flow Analysis - Key stocks with notable capital flow include: - Shangwei New Materials (Code: 688585) with a net inflow of 29.45 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Yinhui Technology (Code: 300221) with a net inflow of 17.20 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Conversely, stocks like Yuyue Technology (Code: 603879) experienced a net outflow of 10.02% from retail investors [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在70.60万吨，较上周增加1.02%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率85.35%，较上周期减少了0.68个百分点。本周期 | | | | 装置情况来看，周内上海石化、大庆石化、齐鲁石化等企业存在新增检修计划，新增检修装置虽有增加，不过多于周后期检修，存量检修装置陆续重启， | | | | 因此产能利用率环比上周减少。 | | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-0.9%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-1.0%；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.8%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 平均开工率较前期-1.8%。其中农膜 ...

证券代码：839979 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 PVC期货周报 2026年01月26日-01月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周05合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为4793元/吨,周五收盘价为5063元/吨，周涨幅为5.63% 供给端来看,据隆众统计，2025年12月PVC产量为213.7356万吨,环比增加2.70%;本周样本企 业产能利用率为78.93%,环比增加0.00个百分点;电石法企业产量34.716万吨,环比增加0.73%,乙 烯法企业产量13.611万吨,环比减少0.96%;本周供给压力有所增加;下周预计检修有所减少，预计 排产少量增加。 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为44.75%,环比减少0.10个百分点,高于历史平均水平;下游型材 开工率为31. ...

2026 年 2 月 2 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：进口利润缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑偏 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 7014 | -0.50% | 880853 | -9081 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -154 | | -169 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -55 | | -55 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6860 | | 6880 | | | | 华东 | 7000 | | 6950 | | | | 华南 | 7030 | | 7030 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货偏强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，月底代理开单及中游销售较弱。裕龙 ...