Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The previous rapid decline of PG accelerated the release of weak expectations, and currently, the marginal improvement of the fundamentals and relative strength compared to crude oil indicate that this expectation has been well realized. The market is facing a high level of warehouse receipts and maintaining a high basis, with the downward driving force fading but limited rebound space. The follow - up should focus on the further repair process of the US cargo flow and the signal of freight rate decline to confirm the market bottoming. The market mainline this year still needs to pay attention to the continuous supply increase from North America and the Middle East. Currently, the negative factors are being released rapidly, and the market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern during the logistics repair process [11] Summary by Related Content China's LPG Import Structure Changes - In the previous trade war, US propane exited the Chinese market from 2018 - 2020 due to a 20% tariff. In 2019, non - US and non - Middle East sources grew the fastest, filling the nearly 20% share of US sources. After that, the share of US LPG in China's imports continued to rise, reaching 50.9% in 2024, the highest in history [1] - In 2025, due to trade conflicts, the share of US LPG in China's imports decreased. In March, it dropped from nearly 50% to 38.7%. After the full - scale counter - tariff on US goods in April, the US LPG may lose its cost advantage. In June, the share of US LPG dropped to 12%, the lowest in recent years. It is expected to rise to 35% - 40% in the short term, and the distortion of trade flow will start to ease in the third quarter [3][4] - The LPG import volume increased after March due to the "rush - to - import" behavior of importers. In June, the procurement volume and the US share dropped rapidly. In July, the total import volume is expected to rise again, and the US share is expected to further rise to 36% in August [4] US LPG Export Changes - Since 2022, the Northeast Asian market, centered on China, has become the main part of US LPG exports. In 2024, Northeast Asia accounted for 50.7% of US LPG exports, with China being the largest export destination, accounting for 15.6% [8] - In 2025, after the sharp decline in exports to China, the exports to Northeast Asia and Europe remained stable. The US redirected its exports to South Asia and Southeast Asia, and the export share to South Asia and Southeast Asia is expected to increase from 9.4% in the first quarter to 20.4% in the second quarter [8] Market Fundamentals and Outlook - The domestic chemical production progress has slowed down, while the US natural gas and OPEC have entered a strong production - increasing cycle this year. The buyer's bargaining power has increased, and the trade flow has been reshaped with the increase of trade on the North America - South Asia route [10] - The EIA slightly increased the forecast of natural gas and associated propane production, but the further production - increasing space this year is limited due to the weakening gas price. The oversupply pressure still exists, but the negative pressure may be marginally reduced [11] - In August, the Middle East CP dropped significantly for the first time in a year, indicating the Middle East countries' attitude to seize the market under oversupply pressure. The previously high PG/crude oil ratio has been continuously repaired to a historical neutral position [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous rapid decline of PG accelerated the release of weak expectations. Currently, the marginal improvement of fundamentals and relative strength compared to crude oil indicate good realization of this expectation. The downward driving force has faded, but the rebound space is limited. The market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern during the logistics repair process [11] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents China's LPG Import Structure Changes - During the 2018 - 2020 trade war, US propane exited the Chinese market due to a 20% tariff. By 2024, the proportion of US LPG imports in China reached a record high of 50.9%, and subsequently, trade conflicts led to fluctuations in this proportion. In March 2025, it dropped to 38.7%, and in June, it fell to 12%. It is expected to remain in the range of 35% - 40% in the short term [1][3][4] - After the expectation of a 145% tariff on US LPG in May, there was a rush to import, causing the total LPG import volume to increase after March. In June, the procurement volume declined rapidly, and the proportion of US LPG also decreased significantly [4] - In July, the total domestic import volume is expected to rebound, with the year - on - year decline narrowing from - 21% in June to - 12% in July. The proportion of US LPG in the import volume is expected to further recover to 36% in August [4] US LPG Export Changes - Since 2022, Northeast Asia, centered on China, has become the main destination for US LPG exports. In 2024, Northeast Asia accounted for 50.7% of US LPG exports, with China being the largest export destination at 15.6% [8] - In 2025, after the sharp decline in exports to China, exports to other regions such as Northeast Asia and Europe remained stable. The US redirected its exports to South Asia and Southeast Asia, with the export proportion to these two regions increasing from 9.4% in Q1 to 20.4% in Q2 [8] Market Fundamentals and Outlook - The EIA slightly increased its short - term forecast of natural gas and associated propane production, but the room for further production increase within the year is limited due to weak gas prices. The over - supply pressure remains, but the negative pressure may decline marginally [11] - In August, the Middle East CP was significantly lowered for the first time in a year, indicating the Middle East's attitude to seize the market under over - supply pressure. The previously high PG/crude oil ratio has been restored to a historical neutral level [11] - The low - price PG has stimulated the recovery of terminal demand, and the distorted trade flow has begun to repair. After the recent rapid decline of crude oil, PG has remained relatively stable, with a firm ratio [11]

Group 1 - India's demand for PVC is significant due to its large agricultural and infrastructure sectors, with an annual import gap exceeding 3 million tons due to limited domestic production and slow capacity expansion [1] - The recent reintroduction of anti-dumping duties by India on PVC imports from China is expected to significantly impact China's PVC exports, which had been increasing since the duties were lifted in February 2022 [1][2] - In 2024, China's PVC exports are projected to reach 2.617 million tons, with India accounting for 1.3326 million tons, representing 50.92% of total exports [1] Group 2 - The cost of exporting PVC to India from China is expected to rise significantly due to the new anti-dumping duties, eliminating the previous price advantage [2] - The implementation of the anti-dumping duties is anticipated to create a "golden window" for a short-term increase in PVC demand before a decline in exports to India occurs [3] - The global PVC supply-demand relationship is not expected to change significantly in the short term, allowing China to redirect its exports to fill gaps in other markets [3][4] Group 3 - China's PVC production capacity accounts for nearly half of the global total, providing a cost advantage even if demand from India decreases [4] - New markets in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, West Asia, Russia, and Africa are expected to become growth points for PVC exports as companies adapt to the changing trade landscape [4] - Domestic PVC inventories have been increasing, with a total of 1.1383 million tons reported, indicating potential price pressure following the implementation of the anti-dumping duties [4][5] Group 4 - The anti-dumping investigation's final ruling is expected to lead to a temporary spike in exports before a period of adjustment and potential price declines as the market reshapes [5] - The transition to new markets and the adjustment of trade flows are crucial for stabilizing PVC exports in the long term [5]